Joined: May 2015
Posts: 19,561
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I know everyone wants a team full of 24 year old, 4M cap hit, 100 point scorers but that just isn't reality.
Burns will probably decline and more than likely won't be "worth" 8M when he's 38 but he doesn't necessarily need to be either. He's coming off 60+ and 80+ point seasons as a dman playing 25+ mins a night and well on his way to another 60 point season this year despite the team around him being poor. Even if he were to round out being a 30-40 point guy by the time the contract ends, he'd have been worth every penny.
People often forget that you have to take the good with the bad with a contract and hope that the good outweighs the bad throughout that entire time as a whole. If I had to choose between a star dman for 4 years then a declining dman for the last 4 years, over nothing at all, I'd take Burns till he's 40. With that said it all comes down to rate of decline and if he's still doing what he's doing at 34, I don't think he'll slow down rapidly to the point of buyout candidate.
If his rate of decline is like that of Brent Seabrooks than yeah but if he's still pumping out offensive numbers but just can't play 27 mins a night anymore so he needs a little more sheltered minutes, so be it. Don't forget you paid 8M for an 80+ point dman not too long ago, technically on a season by season basis, that's worth easily 11M like Karlsson. So you got him for cheaper than he should have been also.
From the looks of it, Burns makes me think he'll still be able to provide value as he ages, just like Shea Weber will. If you are expecting them to remain Norris calibre dmen until their contracts are over, you'll be disappointed but then again they don't have to be. They just can't be straight up bad.