Third Line at the Deadline

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: CD282

Team: 2019-20 Edmonton Oilers

Initial Creation Date: Jan. 14, 2020

Published: Jan. 17, 2020

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

These trades can happen any time now, I just put "deadline" in the title because it rhymed. :P

I'm keeping the current top 2 lines together because since they've been put together the Oilers have gone 5-1-1, the 2nd best record in the NHL.

The 1st line is 4-2 (66.67%) in 6 games together (Kassian missed 1 due to suspension).

The 2nd line is 6-1 (85.71%) in 6 games together (Nuge didn't play with Draisaitl and Yamamoto in the 7-5 win over the Rangers on New Years Eve).

During that time, however, the bottom-6 was 6-7 (46.15%), and that's with an unsustainable shooting percentage. More skill is certainly needed.

ANAHEIM: Puljujarvi's value is, of course, the wild card here. There were reports that Holland was seeking a 2nd + prospect, apparently there were GM's willing to meet that price but the sticking point was the quality of prospect. If true, that would put JP's value somewhere in the range of a late 1st / early 2nd. Anaheim needs both offensive and defensive help (Puljujarvi is one of the best defensive forwards in Liiga) so I added Matt Benning also. He's a very capable 3rd pairing defenseman who has shown repeatedly that he's able to move up the lineup when asked. His value is also about that of a mid-2nd, although he'll have to come back and show he's 100% to get that sort of return. Due to his concussion history he's somewhat devalued right now. Holland has also mentioned (about a potential JP trade) that his preference would be to get a young winger under team control, Kase fits that profile perfectly.

PITTSBURGH: It's hard to gauge Galchenyuk's value, but it seems like most PIT fans are just about giving him away to gain some cap space. I'm not sure Rutherford would give him away for a pick right now as he's gearing up for a long playoff run and will need warm bodies to fill roles in the bottom-6. Chiasson's stats are virtually identical to Galchenyuk's this year for less than half the price, while Khaira is a big, fast train that is struggling right now and needs a change of scenery IMO. PIT saves $1.5M in cap space this year with this transaction. We can swing the extra cap by placing Brodziak on LTIR.

Trades

PIT

Buyouts

Andrej Sekera: $2,500,000
Benoit Pouliot: $1,333,333
Eric Gryba: $300,000

Retained Salary Transactions

Milan Lucic: $750,000 (12.5%)

Buried

Markus Granlund: $225,000 ($1,300,000)
Sam Gagner: $1,760,000 ($2,835,000)
Brandon Manning: $1,175,000 ($2,250,000)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2020
2021
2022

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
23	$81,500,000	$80,611,164	$0	$2,740,000	$888,836

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Neal, James $5,750,000$5,750,000 RW, LW UFA - 4	McDavid, Connor $12,500,000$12,500,000 C UFA - 7	Kassian, Zack $1,950,000$1,950,000 RW UFA - 1
Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan $6,000,000$6,000,000 LW, C UFA - 2	Draisaitl, Leon $8,500,000$8,500,000 C, LW UFA - 6	Yamamoto, Kailer $894,166$894,166 ($230,000$230K) RW RFA - 2
Benson, Tyler $808,333$808,333 ($32,500$32K) LW, RW UFA - 2	Galchenyuk, Alex $4,900,000$4,900,000 LW, C, RW UFA - 1	Kase, Ondrej $2,600,000$2,600,000 RW UFA - 2
Nygård, Joakim $925,000$925,000 LW UFA - 1	Haas, Gaëtan $925,000$925,000 ($637,500$638K) C UFA - 1	Archibald, Josh $1,000,000$1,000,000 RW, LW UFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Nurse, Darnell $3,200,000$3,200,000 LD UFA - 1	Bear, Ethan $720,000$720,000 ($20,000$20K) RD UFA - 1	Koskinen, Mikko $4,500,000$4,500,000 G M-NTC UFA - 3
Klefbom, Oscar $4,167,000$4,167,000 LD UFA - 4	Larsson, Adam $4,166,666$4,166,666 RD UFA - 2	Smith, Mike $2,000,000$2,000,000 ($1,750,000$2M) G NTC UFA - 1
Russell, Kris $4,000,000$4,000,000 LD/RD M-NTC, NMC UFA - 2	Jones, Caleb $720,000$720,000 ($70,000$70K) LD/RD UFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Sheahan, Riley $900,000$900,000 LW, C UFA - 1		Brodziak, Kyle $1,150,000$1,150,000 C UFA - 1
Lagesson, William $741,666$741,666 LD/RD UFA - 1		Mantha, Ryan $870,000$870,000 RD UFA - 1
Russell, Patrick $700,000$700,000 RW UFA - 1

Jan. 17, 2020 at 11:22 a.m.

zk97

v5 CBJ GM

Joined: Feb. 2019

Posts: 15,922

Likes: 8,570

I don't really know the Oilers but I'm assuming that Brodziak is an NHLer, so what happens when he's back?

Jan. 17, 2020 at 11:38 a.m.

CD282

Thread Starter

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,036

Likes: 7,746

Quoting: MaxDomi13

I don't really know the Oilers but I'm assuming that Brodziak is an NHLer, so what happens when he's back?

He's not coming back.

http://sportsforecaster.com/nhl/player/3432/news

Jan. 17, 2020 at 11:43 a.m.

zk97

v5 CBJ GM

Joined: Feb. 2019

Posts: 15,922

Likes: 8,570

Quoting: CD282

He's not coming back.

http://sportsforecaster.com/nhl/player/3432/news

whoa.

EDIT: wait never mind he's 35

Jan. 17, 2020 at 11:56 a.m.

CD282

Thread Starter

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,036

Likes: 7,746

Quoting: MaxDomi13

whoa.

EDIT: wait never mind he's 35

Yeah, it's too bad. But he carved out a pretty nice career as a decent bottom-6 center with 974 NHL games and earnings of $17.5M US dollars.

Despite the injury, it was retirement time.

zk97 and Nhl_oilers liked this.

Jan. 17, 2020 at 3:21 p.m.

CD282

Thread Starter

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,036

Likes: 7,746

@OldNYIfan
@MDA_47
@mytduxfan
@Christian17
@Jah1722
@Salzy

@MajesticWalrus
@Geno_the_Hero
@Pensfan89
@pharrow
@djsuperdock
@mhockey91

Let me know what you guys think.

mhockey91 liked this.

Jan. 17, 2020 at 3:23 p.m.

Stgstg55

Xx_Zegras46_xX

Joined: Dec. 2019

Posts: 3,960

Likes: 1,658

Quoting: CD282

@OldNYIfan
@MDA_47
@mytduxfan
@Christian17
@Jah1722
@Salzy

@MajesticWalrus
@Geno_the_Hero
@Pensfan89
@pharrow
@djsuperdock
@mhockey91

Let me know what you guys think.

Not horrible. But it’s risky. I’d throw in a pick for good measures. Like a late one

Jan. 17, 2020 at 3:28 p.m.

MajesticWalrus

Joined: Aug. 2017

Posts: 3,012

Likes: 350

I guess it's ok. Havent really been following those 2 this year and theyre depth players which makes them harder to pay attention to cause theyre not in the spotlight.

Jan. 17, 2020 at 3:36 p.m.

OldNYIfan

Once a Kings Fan Too

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 40,274

Likes: 25,183

The fact that you have him on the third line indicates to me that you don't value Kase as highly as we do. Kase is years ahead of Yamamoto in development, and would be dynamite playing on the right of either Draisaitl or Nugent-Hopkins (with Neal on the other side). He starts thinking "Shoot" once one leg is over the boards and is very fast. He also has some defensive sense, too. We wouldn't trade him for that, especially to a division rival, but you would love to have him.

Salzy and mytduxfan liked this.

Jan. 17, 2020 at 3:36 p.m.

Salzy

Joined: Nov. 2018

Posts: 5,139

Likes: 5,943

Quoting: CD282

@OldNYIfan
@MDA_47
@mytduxfan
@Christian17
@Jah1722
@Salzy

@MajesticWalrus
@Geno_the_Hero
@Pensfan89
@pharrow
@djsuperdock
@mhockey91

Let me know what you guys think.

Hard pass tbh, I’ve never been a fan of pool party and I would hate to sell low on Kase

OldNYIfan and mytduxfan liked this.

Jan. 17, 2020 at 3:52 p.m.

#10

CD282

Thread Starter

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,036

Likes: 7,746

Quoting: OldNYIfan

The fact that you have him on the third line indicates to me that you don't value Kase as highly as we do.

I gave my reasoning on the lines in the Team Explanation. I'll quote it here to save you scrolling up:

"I'm keeping the current top 2 lines together because since they've been put together the Oilers have gone 5-1-1, the 2nd best record in the NHL.

The 1st line is 4-2 (66.67%) in 6 games together (Kassian missed 1 due to suspension).

The 2nd line is 6-1 (85.71%) in 6 games together (Nuge didn't play with Draisaitl and Yamamoto in the 7-5 win over the Rangers on New Years Eve)."

Kase being on the third line has nothing to do with how I value him at all, it's about not breaking up the chemistry of the 1st and 2nd line.

Quoting: OldNYIfan

Kase is years ahead of Yamamoto in development,

Well, he's 3 years older, so you'd expect that. At 21 Kase scored 5 goals and 15 points in 53 games (0.28 P/GP), Yamamoto is at 2 goals and 5 points in 7 games so far (0.71 P/GP). With 34 games left to play, Yamamoto will almost certainly surpass Kase's 15 point rookie season.

Quoting: OldNYIfan

Kase... would be dynamite playing on the right of either Draisaitl or Nugent-Hopkins

I think so too.

Quoting: OldNYIfan

We wouldn't trade him for that, especially to a division rival, but you would love to have him.

What would have to be added?

Jan. 17, 2020 at 3:54 p.m.

#11

CD282

Thread Starter

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,036

Likes: 7,746

Quoting: Salzy

Hard pass tbh, I’ve never been a fan of pool party and I would hate to sell low on Kase

This whole idea turns on the presumption that Puljujarvi is valued "somewhere in the range of a late 1st / early 2nd." I understand that many posters on this site disagree, but if reports are true, that's about what NHL GM's think.

There were reports that Holland was seeking a 2nd + prospect, apparently there were GM's willing to meet that price but the sticking point was the quality of prospect.

OldNYIfan and Salzy liked this.

Jan. 17, 2020 at 3:58 p.m.

#12

Christian17

Joined: Feb. 2017

Posts: 472

Likes: 72

Quoting: CD282

@OldNYIfan
@MDA_47
@mytduxfan
@Christian17
@Jah1722
@Salzy

@MajesticWalrus
@Geno_the_Hero
@Pensfan89
@pharrow
@djsuperdock
@mhockey91

Let me know what you guys think.

I don't think the Ducks should sell low on Kase as he's only 24, has the best possession metrics on the team (players with >10 GP), is suffering from a 4.5 S% (if he equaled his S% from last year 11.7% he'd have 13 goals, so 26 pts in 41 GP) and his contract ends after next year and he'll likely get signed to a very team-friendly contract extension this summer because he's been unlucky this season with a 97.8 PDO.

Also, the Ducks already have a similar player to Puljujarvi in Sprong and I don't think the Ducks want to take another risky asset on.

OldNYIfan, CD282, MajesticWalrus and 1 other person liked this.

Jan. 17, 2020 at 3:59 p.m.

#13

OldNYIfan

Once a Kings Fan Too

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 40,274

Likes: 25,183

Quoting: CD282

The fact that Yamamoto has had some tag-along success on the second line is no reason for keeping him there once you have a better player to replace him. You give your six best forwards the most playing time. Success creates chemistry; chemistry doesn't create success.

Jan. 17, 2020 at 4:06 p.m.

#14

CD282

Thread Starter

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,036

Likes: 7,746

Quoting: OldNYIfan

It's not tag-along success though. Read what the players, coaches and media observers are saying. He's a big, big part of that line's success. Money quotes:

“Yamo, he wins races, he wins pucks, he does little things that a lot of people that watch games probably don’t really see. He’s very feisty and hard to play against. It’s a lot of fun and I think we can still create more offensively. That will come with more chemistry.” - Leon Draisaitl

“He plays with speed, he makes good plays, the tenacity he brings to our group,” (Oilers Head Coach Dave) Tippett said. “He’s not a big guy but he plays really hard and (is) a smart player. He’s come in and in a short time has contributed and made our team a better team. He’s a smart player, he reads situations well. He makes good plays with the puck and that’s why you see a guy like Draisaitl likes to play with him, because he can play a give-and-go game and he makes intelligent plays. That along with the tenacity, he gets to the front of the net, he finds loose pucks, he’s a smart player with a good skill set and he’s willing to work.”

https://theathletic.com/1525669/2020/01/10/kailer-yamamoto-has-impressed-the-oilers-and-especially-star-linemate-leon-draisaitl/

Jan. 17, 2020 at 4:06 p.m.

#15

Geno_the_Hero

Joined: Jun. 2017

Posts: 384

Likes: 30

Quoting: CD282

@OldNYIfan
@MDA_47
@mytduxfan
@Christian17
@Jah1722
@Salzy

@MajesticWalrus
@Geno_the_Hero
@Pensfan89
@pharrow
@djsuperdock
@mhockey91

Let me know what you guys think.

Throw in the rights to jesse puljujarvi and pens say yes

MajesticWalrus and mhockey91 liked this.

Jan. 17, 2020 at 4:07 p.m.

#16

CD282

Thread Starter

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,036

Likes: 7,746

Quoting: Christian17

I don't think the Ducks should sell low on Kase

If I were a Ducks fan I'd be saying the same thing, but I'm not, so I'm not.

OldNYIfan and Salzy liked this.

Jan. 17, 2020 at 4:09 p.m.

#17

CD282

Thread Starter

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,036

Likes: 7,746

Quoting: Geno_the_Hero

Throw in the rights to jesse puljujarvi and pens say yes

That's too much for a $4.9M rental who sucks the hind banana this year, sorry. Besides, I've already traded JP to Anaheim.

Jan. 17, 2020 at 4:18 p.m.

#18

OldNYIfan

Once a Kings Fan Too

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 40,274

Likes: 25,183

Quoting: CD282

All of which makes my point (perhaps unintentionally).

Kase has exactly the same qualities and exactly the same things have been said about him. Kase's statistics through his first 26 and 33 games are ever so slightly better than Yamamoto's, but let's assume that they are essentially the same player. Which would you rather have: the guy who's 5 foot 8 and 155 pounds, or the guy who's 6 feet and 195 pounds, is three years older, and is further along in his development? And remember, Anaheim doesn't have one player on the roster the stature of Draisaitl, let alone McDavid, and the best I can say about my Ducks is that we have one or two players as good as Nugent-Hopkins, and Kase has never really played with anyone as good as your Big Three.

Jan. 17, 2020 at 4:28 p.m.

#19

Pensfan89

Joined: Jul. 2017

Posts: 5,418

Likes: 1,440

The ducks definitely say no. They’d be better off holding on to Kase if that’s all they’d get for him.
I think the pens deal is pretty fair. Khaira isn’t really worth much of anything. I’d honestly do it for Chiasson straight up. Galchenyuk has more talent but is more of a risk. Chiasson can play up and down the lineup.

CD282 liked this.

Jan. 17, 2020 at 4:35 p.m.

#20

Jah1722

Joined: Jan. 2018

Posts: 5,417

Likes: 2,896

Quoting: CD282

@OldNYIfan
@MDA_47
@mytduxfan
@Christian17
@Jah1722
@Salzy

@MajesticWalrus
@Geno_the_Hero
@Pensfan89
@pharrow
@djsuperdock
@mhockey91

Let me know what you guys think.

Personally I want nothing to do with Puljujarvi. Just too much has happened with him that no one really knows how he’ll turn out.

OldNYIfan and Salzy liked this.

Jan. 17, 2020 at 4:39 p.m.

#21

CD282

Thread Starter

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,036

Likes: 7,746

Quoting: OldNYIfan

Kase has exactly the same qualities and exactly the same things have been said about him.

No they don't and no they haven't. Kase has no physical element to his game at all, there's a HUGE difference between how these two guys play the game. Yamamoto is throwing 11.13 hits/60, Kase is at 0.70 hits/60. That's 19 hits in 7 games vs 8 hits in 41 games this year. Very different play styles despite having many similar qualities.

Quoting: OldNYIfan

Which would you rather have:

It's not an either/or situation, I'm not trading Yamamoto for Kase. I want both.

Jan. 17, 2020 at 6:07 p.m.

#22

mytduxfan

Joined: Jan. 2017

Posts: 1,457

Likes: 462

Quoting: Jah1722

Personally I want nothing to do with Puljujarvi. Just too much has happened with him that no one really knows how he’ll turn out.

This. He's too much OF a question mark to give up Kase for and Benning doesn't make up for the fact that it would be a huge risk.

OldNYIfan and Salzy liked this.

Jan. 17, 2020 at 6:11 p.m.

#23

OldNYIfan

Once a Kings Fan Too

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 40,274

Likes: 25,183

Quoting: mytduxfan

This. He's too much OF a question mark to give up Kase for and Benning doesn't make up for the fact that it would be a huge risk.

I gave up trying to shake this guy's unwavering conviction that Yamamoto is a better second-liner than Kase because he's more deserving of the playing time and more physical than Kase.

Jan. 17, 2020 at 6:27 p.m.

#24

Christian17

Joined: Feb. 2017

Posts: 472

Likes: 72

Quoting: CD282

I'm not saying Yams won't be good in the future, but right now he's nowhere near the player that Kase is.

According to hockey-viz https://www.hockeyviz.com/player/yamamka98/EDM/1920 Yams' offensive on-the-ice contribution is -20% threat below league average (very bad), EDM without Yams is -6% below the league average (less bad). Yam's defensive on-the-ice contribution to the opponents' offensive threat is +12% above the league average (bad), EDM without Yams is -4% (good).

Kase's offensive on-the-ice contribution is +100% threat above league average (very good), ANA without Kase is -7% below the league average (bad). Kase's defensive on-the-ice contribution to the opponents' offensive threat is +3% above the league average (less than decent), ANA without Kase is +4% (even lesser than decent).

So yeah his teammates and coaches may like him, but his on-the-ice contribution actually hasn't been as good as the eye test may say. He's just a kid though.

OldNYIfan liked this.

Jan. 17, 2020 at 6:34 p.m.

#25

CD282

Thread Starter

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,036

Likes: 7,746

Quoting: OldNYIfan

I gave up trying to shake this guy's unwavering conviction that Yamamoto is a better second-liner than Kase because he's more deserving of the playing time and more physical than Kase.

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