My take on Domi for Dumba deal and trading Petry

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: Blazingbat11

Team: 2019-20 Montreal Canadiens

Initial Creation Date: Jan. 20, 2020

Published: Jan. 20, 2020

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

Saw a Dumba for Domi trade on here (not sure how long ago). Thought I'd give my own spin on it.

Here's my reasoning for the trades, and my explanation on the pieces involved:

I'll start by saying I think Dumba for Domi in terms of value is already fairly close. With a small edge going to Dumba (being a RD) imo. There's only 9 months difference in age between the 2 of them. The prospect swap included with them compensate from the positional loss for both teams (MIN getting a RD back in Brook, MTL getting a LW/C back with Khovanov). I value both prospect as equal value. For my fellow Habs fans, trading Brook here makes sense as having Weber - Dumba - Fleury as their top RD, really doesn't leave any room for him now or in the future. Not to mention MTL would be acquiring another RD prospect in the Petry deal I'm proposing. The pick swap is to compensate for the slight difference in value between Domi and Dumba.

Acquiring Dumba gives MTL the freedom to trade Petry, since MTL currently do not have a valid replacement if they were to move him now or in the summer (Fleury not ready for a top 4 role, Juulsen's future up in the air with headache issues, etc.). The main pieces in the deal are Hague and the 2020 1st (top 3 lottery protection) for Petry with salary retention. Taking on Eakin as a cap dump for Thompson + 4th and being compensated Korczak (2nd rd pick prospect) and a better pick could almost be a separate deal, but needs to happen due to VGK cap restraints.

Scandella trade could be to any team, just looking for a return on investment.

Kovalchuk trade should be explored too. Try and get maximum value, and perhaps try and convince him to return to MTL in the summer as a UFA. This could go a long way in convincing Romanov to leave the KHL knowing he could play with someone like Kovalchuk.

Side notes. Moving Thompson finally allows Poehling to go back to his natrual position. In terms of depth chart, after all these trades Korczak replaces Brook in the system. MTL will have 3 young LD (Romanov, Mete, Hague) to fight for 2 spots next year with two signed vets to fill out LD (Chiarot the obvious guy, with Kulak being the 7th Dman). MTL can explore the option of keeping Tatar with Domi being gone, and have a young established top RD in Dumba already under contract until he's almost 30. Khovanov serves a dual purpose as a valuable LW prospect (something MTL are currently lacking), and as a means of convincing Romanov to leave the KHL, which is still not a certainty!

Trades

MTL

Dumba, Matt
Khovanov, Alexander
2021 4th round pick (MIN)

MIN

Brook, Josh
Domi, Max
2020 2nd round pick (CHI)

MTL

Eakin, Cody
Hague, Nicolas
Korczak, Kaedan
2020 1st round pick (VGK)
2020 3rd round pick (NJD)

VGK

Petry, Jeff ($2,750,000 retained)
Thompson, Nate ($250,000 retained)
2020 4th round pick (ANA)

MTL

2020 4th round pick (PIT)

PIT

Scandella, Marco ($1,500,000 retained)

Buyouts

Steve Mason: $1,366,667

Retained Salary Transactions

Jeff Petry: $2,750,000 (50%)
Nate Thompson: $250,000 (25%)
Marco Scandella: $1,500,000 (75%)

Buried

Karl Alzner: $3,550,000 ($4,625,000)
Dale Weise: $1,275,000 ($2,350,000)
Keith Kinkaid: $675,000 ($1,750,000)
Matthew Peca: $225,000 ($1,300,000)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2020
2021
2022

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
23	$81,500,000	$76,662,975	$0	$4,297,500	$4,837,025

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Tatar, Tomas $4,800,000$4,800,000 LW, RW UFA - 2	Danault, Phillip $3,083,333$3,083,333 C UFA - 2	Kovalchuk, Ilya $350,000$350,000 LW, RW UFA - 1
Drouin, Jonathan $5,500,000$5,500,000 LW, RW UFA - 4	Suzuki, Nick $863,333$863,333 ($425,000$425K) C UFA - 3	Gallagher, Brendan $3,750,000$3,750,000 RW, LW UFA - 2
Lehkonen, Artturi $2,400,000$2,400,000 LW, RW UFA - 2	Kotkaniemi, Jesperi $925,000$925,000 ($2,500,000$2M) C UFA - 2	Armia, Joel $2,600,000$2,600,000 RW, LW UFA - 2
Cousins, Nick $1,000,000$1,000,000 LW, C UFA - 1	Poehling, Ryan $925,000$925,000 ($850,000$850K) C, LW UFA - 2	Byron, Paul $3,400,000$3,400,000 LW, RW UFA - 4

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Chiarot, Ben $1,750,000$1,750,000 LD/RD M-NTC UFA - 3	Weber, Shea $7,857,143$7,857,143 RD UFA - 7	Price, Carey $10,500,000$10,500,000 G NMC UFA - 7
	Dumba, Matt $6,000,000$6,000,000 RD UFA - 4	Primeau, Cayden $880,833$880,833 ($257,500$258K) G RFA - 3
Mete, Victor $748,333$748,333 LD/RD UFA - 1	Fleury, Cale $771,666$771,666 ($132,500$132K) RD RFA - 2
Hague, Nicolas $791,667$791,667 ($132,500$132K) LD RFA - 3

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Weal, Jordan $1,400,000$1,400,000 C, RW, LW UFA - 2
Kulak, Brett $925,000$925,000 LD/RD UFA - 3
Eakin, Cody $3,850,000$3,850,000 C UFA - 1

Jan. 20, 2020 at 2:17 a.m.

Lord_Simek

G O S I M E K

Joined: Jan. 2020

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If I am Minnesota I decline this without hesitation.

Wildwinswhen and MNBassman liked this.

Jan. 20, 2020 at 2:25 a.m.

Blazingbat11

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Quoting: Baphomet

If I am Minnesota I decline this without hesitation.

care to elaborate as to why?

Jan. 20, 2020 at 2:37 a.m.

Lord_Simek

G O S I M E K

Joined: Jan. 2020

Posts: 930

Likes: 368

Quoting: Blazingbat11

care to elaborate as to why?

After a brief hesitation I think the deal is not bad actually. I'd still rather Dumba and Khovanov over Domi and Brook.

Jan. 20, 2020 at 2:44 a.m.

GMs

Joined: Jul. 2019

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Resign Petry might be an option too

Jan. 20, 2020 at 3:04 a.m.

Birtle34

Bandwagon fairweathe

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 7,559

Likes: 3,244

Quoting: Blazingbat11

care to elaborate as to why?

How much team control on domi left and always wonder on the longterm contract, dumba has 4 years min, I don’t know Khovanov, but I like brooks game and not a bad future replacement of dumba. So my only sticking point would be domi future contract

Jan. 20, 2020 at 3:07 a.m.

Blazingbat11

Thread Starter

Molson beer is meh

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Quoting: GMs

Resign Petry might be an option too

If Bergevin is going to continue with his youth movement, I don't think you can stick with both Weber and Petry long term. just doesn't fit. Also, market for someone like Petry is high. I think the benefits for what MTL could get for him long term outweigh what he could give to the team short term, especially if you can replace him with Dumba.

Jan. 20, 2020 at 3:11 a.m.

GMs

Joined: Jul. 2019

Posts: 14,042

Likes: 5,158

Quoting: Blazingbat11

Dumba is bad since he got injured, I wouldn’t trade for him

Jan. 20, 2020 at 3:15 a.m.

Blazingbat11

Thread Starter

Molson beer is meh

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Quoting: Birtle34

Well Domi is an RFA at the end of the year. So MIN will be in position to lock him up long term. But absolute worst case if they can only sign him until the very end of his RFA status is 3 more seasons after this one. Considering Domi had 72pts last season, and is on pace for 55-60pts this season, any long term contract probably hovers around $7-7.5mil AAV imo when take inflation into account. If you're going short term (3 seasons or less) you probably get him at the same price MIN is currently paying Dumba ($6mil AAV).

Jan. 20, 2020 at 3:24 a.m.

Birtle34

Bandwagon fairweathe

Joined: Jun. 2018

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Quoting: Blazingbat11

Solid hockey trade, domi wants to play where there’s a solid fanbase so that is well covered

Jan. 20, 2020 at 3:27 a.m.

#10

Blazingbat11

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Quoting: GMs

Dumba is bad since he got injured, I wouldn’t trade for him

Didn't know about the injury.... was simply attributing him having a bad year because MIN hasn't been that good....hmmmmmm....interesting. That does raise concerns.

Jan. 20, 2020 at 9:29 a.m.

#11

MNBassman

Joined: May 2015

Posts: 8,141

Likes: 3,571

No doubt in my mind Dumba will bounce back and find his old form. Right now he is snake-bit and it’s getting into his head. The kid flat-out cares and is loved by teammates old and young!
Khovanov has exploded this year and is a much higher end prospect than Brooks so that part of this deal does not work.

Habs fans - tell me about Kotkaniemi. Is he a bust, or just taking longer than expected to develop? IF he has #1 C potential, he’s the player I want for Dumba.

Wildwinswhen liked this.

Jan. 20, 2020 at 9:29 a.m.

#12

zk97

v5 CBJ GM

Joined: Feb. 2019

Posts: 15,878

Likes: 8,555

Don't trade Domi

Jan. 20, 2020 at 9:31 a.m.

#13

MisstheWhalers

Joined: Jan. 2019

Posts: 23,623

Likes: 12,352

You're really overvaluing Petry, there's no way Vegas does that trade.

The Wild trade is pretty fair, actually I'd say it's a but better for Minnesota and something they should do if it was actually offered to them.

MGK liked this.

Jan. 20, 2020 at 9:43 a.m.

#14

Blazingbat11

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Molson beer is meh

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Quoting: MNBassman

Lol Brook in all cases probably has more value than Khovanov. He’s an offensive RD, scored a boatload of pts in CHL as a Dman (much more rare than the “dime a dozen” forwards that put up similar offensive numbers like Khovanov) and is being given almost all defensive responsibilities in the AHL for his development. There’s been no complaints on Brook’s performance. Dmen take time, this isn’t news...

And there’s zero chance Kotkaniemi gets moved. There isn’t anyone in MIN organization that could fetch him anyways.

Jan. 20, 2020 at 9:48 a.m.

#15

Blazingbat11

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Quoting: MisstheWhalers

I disagree wholeheartedly. I did put in my explanation that Petry gets Hague and a 1st (more than fair if you ask me), and that Korczak + 3rd is for retaining all the salary, taking a cap dump in Eakin, and replacing him with a salary minimum Thompson and a 4th.....not sure where you get the overvaluation, honestly.

Jan. 20, 2020 at 10:04 a.m.

#16

MisstheWhalers

Joined: Jan. 2019

Posts: 23,623

Likes: 12,352

Quoting: Blazingbat11

You can disagree all you like but Hague is already playing for Vegas on their defense, why are they trading him? They're just creating another hole if they deal him plus he's on his ELC which makes him pretty valuable, they can't trade all their prospects in their first few years of existence.. Lol

If Petry gets dealt I don't see a 50% retention happening.

MGK liked this.

Jan. 20, 2020 at 10:10 a.m.

#17

Blazingbat11

Thread Starter

Molson beer is meh

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Quoting: MisstheWhalers

The Hague already on the roster and on an ELC is valid stuff for Vegas, yeah. Again if the team is “going for it”, Petry is an improvement over him for sure for the next few years at least.

What gives you the idea that a 50% retention won’t happen?

Jan. 20, 2020 at 10:29 a.m.

#18

MGK

Joined: Jun. 2019

Posts: 1,163

Likes: 287

JFC you want 3-4x what LA got for Muzzin do you?

Jan. 20, 2020 at 10:31 a.m.

#19

MisstheWhalers

Joined: Jan. 2019

Posts: 23,623

Likes: 12,352

Quoting: Blazingbat11

Petry is 32 and has one more season before UFA, yes Vegas is "going for it" but they're built to be going for it for the foreseeable future and Hague will help with that well into the future, for a few reasons I just don't see Vegas dealing Hague for Petry.

Just a gut feeling, seems like there's retention on UFA's or cap dump players or teams doing huge teardown rebuilds like the Senators did but none of those things apply to Petry or the Habs.

Jan. 20, 2020 at 10:32 a.m.

#20

F50marco

Joined: May 2015

Posts: 19,556

Likes: 6,705

Quoting: Blazingbat11

While I agree with some of that, I'd argue that retention has less to do with dramatically upping the return as its does broadening the amount of teams that are able to trade for that player and staying cap compliant. Potentially increasing demand and return if enough teams are willing to pay up. In a perfect world, yes its should mean you'll get more but in more times than not, it simply ensures the team gets the original value for the player. (As opposed to negotiating down a little to compromise)

I think Eakin has enough value to be traded as is. He's a pending UFA and his cap hit isn't astronomical. I just don't think they'd get anything good for him is all. So adding him to this deal wouldn't raise the value coming back that much, its more of a pre-requisite if you want this trade to happen.

Secondly, I've heard from multiple sources on TV/Radio/internet etc that the cost of 1st round picks this year is increased. Teams are more likely to give up players they drafted in the 1st round previously than a 1st rounder this year. So assume a 1st this year is equivalent to a 1st and a 2nd right off the hop.

I think the above is also a little steep. Remember, Petry is 32 years old......Also Hague is current roster player for the Knights. Not a prospect. I don't think he's even a realistic option. I think a more realistic return would be Eakin, 1st, Korczak. if they retain up to 50%, there may be an additional pick like a 3rd at best but I would assume it would be 2021 or possibly even 2022. Not too mention that the 1st is pottery protected. Transferring to 2021 but without protection if they miss the playoffs this year.

Any more and If I was Vegas I would look elsewhere and that's not what MTL should want. Vegas ultimately is the best option for Petry IMO.

Jan. 20, 2020 at 11:30 a.m.

#21

CD282

Joined: Mar. 2017

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IMO, as a fan of neither team, Domi has more value than Dumba. Marginally, but the difference is there.

Jan. 20, 2020 at 11:51 a.m.

#22

Wildwinswhen

Joined: Jun. 2019

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Quoting: Blazingbat11

Didn't know about the injury.... was simply attributing him having a bad year because MIN hasn't been that good....hmmmmmm....interesting. That does raise concerns.

Dumba tore a pectoral muscle last year and was out from Dec until the start of this season after a stupid makeup fight against Calgary that I won't even get into here. He's still working out his new shot. But I think it's mostly mental.

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Jan. 20, 2020 at 12:22 p.m.

#23

Blazingbat11

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Quoting: MGK

JFC you want 3-4x what LA got for Muzzin do you?

Well when you look at the Muzzin deal, he got a 1st and two prospects (both were 2nd rd picks). This deal has a 1st and two prospects...wait for it...that are both 2nd rd picks. Muzzin has a $4mill aav, I’m offering Petry at $2.75 aav. Eakin is a cap dump imo, and I’m adding Thompson and a 4th....

So if you want to start comparing the Muzzin deal...it’s pretty close.

Jan. 20, 2020 at 12:27 p.m.

#24

MGK

Joined: Jun. 2019

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Quoting: Blazingbat11

There's no comparison between - wait for it - Hague + Korczak (future top 4 dmen) and Grundstrom and Durzi.

If Montreal wants that much for retaining 50% then they can keep turnover machine Petry. Your proposal is a joke.

Jan. 20, 2020 at 12:32 p.m.

#25

Blazingbat11

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Quoting: F50marco

If VGK could get Petry at that price (Eakin + Korczak + 1st), they’d jump on it, and with their cap situation, retention is a must from MTLs side so let’s add that 3rd. So from the look of things, Hague seems to be the sticking point.

But if you’re MTL, and as you say, there’s a premium on 1st’s this year. Would you rather get a lesser package to get that 1st in the deal, or do you scrap the first and go for the higher valued prospect/young player? (So Eakin + Hague + 2nd? Add that 3rd for the retention too if you like)

I agree that VGK seems like the best fit for Petry.

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