Gotta think its the prospect or the pick in those trades. Not both.

Vegas is not touching that. Krebs = no.

I like the Tatar trade

Petry wont get you Krebs and a 1st, it would be a lower end prospect

Kovy likely gets you a 3rd with the same condition to make it a second.

So not far off

Each one of these is pushing the value to the max and beyond that its simply just too much.


This is how I see it:

- Retention. Doesn't mean now instead of a 2nd rounder, your're getting a 1st rounder. Just means more teams are able to make the trade. Meaning getting the right package over just getting the best offered.

- Adding a pick to Tatar/Petry. Adding a 3rd or 4th to Petry or Tatar does not mean you can get Poulin or Krebs and a 1st. If I'm the other team, I would rather get less retention on both guys and get no additional pick if it means paying less for those players.

- Cap dump. These generally don't mean changing the 2nd to a 1st. It just means now Vegas can make the trade. Where as if you don't they can't. A player who is a pending UFA and being added to a trade at the TDL, has very little "negative value". There is only a small amount of money still owed to them so the cap dump value is very minimal.


So there is only so much maximizing you can do in a trade before it starts getting "too much adding".

IMO.

Tatar with or without retention for cap dump based on how much retention on Tatar, Poulin or 1st plus some other lesser but still good stuff like lesser prospect or lesser draft pick.
Petry with or without retention for cap dump based on how much retention on Petry, Krebs or 1st plus some other lesser but still good stuff like lesser prospect or lesser draft pick.
Kovalchuk for a conditional 3rd. Turns into a 2nd if (something hard but not too hard happens). Turns into a 1st if (win Stanley cup and plays in minimum 75% playoffs games, etc)

To me, a rhd who can play on their first pair at 2,25m per year for one more season is very valuable. Hes worth more than Tatar thats for sure. A first and a second is the base of a Petry trade. Then, teams start the bidding war and the price goes up. Thats why I think Krebs could ends up being included in this trade. I wonder if theyd trade Hague instead?

I agree a lot with this concept when it comes to rentals. It doesn't matter whether I have $50 cap room after the trade or $3m, cause cap becomes meaningless post-deadline.
However, that being said, a cap-retained Petry (who still has a full season under control after this) means the above concept doesn't apply 100%. There is some "value" to the retention beyond just opening the door to more teams.

On the Tatar trade, I think Poulin + 2nd might work, given that it's a low second

Congrats on the moderator role, by the way

Vegas views Krebs as a potential future #1 C. You are not touching him with Petry. Period. 1st and a mid level prospect like Kolesar? sure. 1st and 3rd? sure. More than that? Look elsewhere.

Deal for Tatar

Yes it does increase value but in the quantity dept. Not the quality dept.

At the end of the day, if the price increases so drastically, teams will start to look elsewhere for rentals and take their post season additions one year at a time in that case. Petry is 32 years old at the end of the day, I think people need to remember that. He like many others will start to decline eventually. We're not talking about a 25 year old stud dman.

That's why I mentioned retention being about getting more teams in the fold. That has less to do with a "bidding war" and more about getting the right package for the Habs. As with everything, bidding wars only work for some players and for a certain amount of teams. If the bidding war starts getting too inflated, teams start dropping out. Decreasing the value again. Then you get a game of chicken with who bites first. May come down to the last minute of the TDL. See Thomas Vanek all those years ago for MTL. Habs got him for a song because they played the game of chicken and won. So if the goal is to trade assets away this year, you better have a great pulse on the mood of the other GM's because it can turn from great value into not trading the player at all because no one wanted to go any higher.

At the end of the day Montreal fans are in their rights to hope for a bidding war (I doubt that it'd get you a 1st and a former 1st round pick but we never know, maybe some conditions to add picks or a better prospect than expected) and if that happens we'll see if GMMB has the guts to select the best offer before teams chicken out. That's what he's paid for isn't it?

As a Habs fan, I sure hope so! I'm just reserving my expectation because some of the returns people on here are stating are very much inflated. Based on what we've seen in the recent past. I will be glad to be wrong though. I just don't want there to be unwarranted hate towards the GM for not getting these unrealistic returns. If he gets market value, I'd be over the moon satisfied.