Forums/Armchair-GM

Hey Hawks Fans

Created by: Austerity
Initial Creation Date: Jan 27, 2020
Published: Jan 27 at 1:25 pm
Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs
Team Explanation
This does not have to include trading for assets only from the Leafs, but then the conversation gets more complicated.

The Leafs have a lot of assets that can be moved for Connor Murphy, and while the Hawks need depth on D, they are facing an impending cap crunch as they have to re-sign Kubalik (about 3.5 to 4 M?), Strome (about 5 to 6 M?), and Robin (preferrably) or Crow at 7-8M and about 6M respectively. Saad expires in 21-22 as well.

So the question becomes, what can they do to clear cap space? Seabrook isn't guaranteed to stay on the LTIR, and even if he does, they still need cap room to improve their roster, as de Haan has been injury plagued and Maatta isn't good enough.

I wonder how much the Hawks value Shaw, who comes in at 3.9M for 2 more seasons after this finishes. Is he too expensive for the Hawks, but provides some grit the Leafs could use?

Would the Hawks be interested in any prospects the Leafs have, such as RHD Liljegren, or Bracco as a cheap depth winger who could finally break out next season?

Kapanen, Johnsson, and Kerfoot would all be on the board to be moved. The only prospects I'd consider untouchable are Sandin and Robertson.
Buyouts
  • Mikhail Grabovski: $0
Retained Salary Transactions
  • Phil Kessel: $1,200,000 (15%)
  • Robin Lehner: $1,100,000 (22%)
DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
2020
TOR
CBJ
TOR
VGK
TOR
CAR
COL
SJS
STL
WPG
2021
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
2022
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES BONUSESCAP SPACE
23$81,500,000$83,991,310$0$70,000-$2,491,310

Roster

Left WingCenterRight Wing
TOR
Hyman, Zach
$2,250,000
LW
NTC
UFA - 2
TOR
Matthews, Auston
$11,634,000
C
UFA - 5
TOR
Marner, Mitchell
$10,893,000
RW
UFA - 6
TOR
Kerfoot, Alexander
$3,500,000
C, LW
UFA - 4
TOR
Tavares, John
$11,000,000
C
NMC
UFA - 6
TOR
Nylander, William
$6,962,366
RW, LW
UFA - 5
TOR
Johnsson, Andreas
$3,400,000
LW
UFA - 4
TOR
Engvall, Pierre
$925,000
LW, RW
RFA - 1
TOR
Kapanen, Kasperi
$3,200,000
RW
RFA - 3
TOR
Moore, Trevor
$775,000
RW, LW
RFA - 2
TOR
Gauthier, Frédérik
$675,000
C
RFA - 1
TOR
Spezza, Jason
$700,000
C, RW
NTC
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
TOR
Rielly, Morgan
$5,000,000
LD
UFA - 3
TOR
Barrie, Tyson
$2,750,000
RD
UFA - 1
TOR
Andersen, Frederik
$5,000,000
G
NTC
UFA - 2
TOR
Muzzin, Jake
$4,000,000
LD
UFA - 1
TOR
Holl, Justin
$675,000
RD
UFA - 1
TOR
Hutchinson, Michael
$700,000
G
UFA - 1
TOR
Sandin, Rasmus
$894,167
LD
RFA - 3
TOR
Dermott, Travis
$863,333
LD
RFA - 1
TOR
Ceci, Cody
$4,500,000
RD
UFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
TOR
Timashov, Dmytro
$694,444
LW
RFA - 1
TOR
Mikheyev, Ilya
$925,000
LW, RW
RFA - 1
TOR
Marincin, Martin
$700,000
LD
UFA - 1
TOR
Clarkson, David
$5,250,000
RW
NMC NTC
UFA - 1
TOR
Horton, Nathan
$5,300,000
RW
NMC NTC
UFA - 1

Special Teams

Power Play 1
Nylander, W.
Tavares, J.
Matthews, A.
Marner, M.
Barrie, T.
Power Play 2
Hyman, Z.
Spezza, J.
Johnsson, A.
Kapanen, K.
Rielly, M.
Penalty Kill 1
Engvall, P.
Marner, M.
Muzzin, J.
Holl, J.
Penalty Kill 2
Hyman, Z.
Kapanen, K.
Rielly, M.
Ceci, C.

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Jan 27 at 1:30
#1
The CEO of reported
Joined: Jun 2019
Posts: 386
Likes: 79
Shaw is one of the most loved blackhawks by far. He’s not getting moved
Although I would really like kapanen or johnsson
Jan 27 at 1:35
#2
#LeafsFever
Joined: May 2017
Posts: 3,483
Likes: 876
Quoting: Dach
Shaw is one of the most loved blackhawks by far. He’s not getting moved
Although I would really like kapanen or johnsson


Don't kid yourself. The guy may be "loved", but that means nothing, and proof is in the pudding, since he was clearly already moved once out of Chicago.
Jan 27 at 1:40
#3
Thread Starter
Austerity
Joined: Apr 2019
Posts: 111
Likes: 36
Quoting: Dach
Shaw is one of the most loved blackhawks by far. He’s not getting moved
Although I would really like kapanen or johnsson


Yeah, Shawsy is one of the most beloved Hawks for good reason. Re-signing Lehner/Crow, Strome, and Kubalik has to be more important though. Toews and Kane need guys they can play with, and you have Saad, Kubalik, Caggiula, Debrincat, Strome, and Dach for that. Shaw comes in a little bit too expensive, especially given the uncertainty around Seabrook's contract, and spending so much on Keith/Maatta/de Haan.

And then the other question is whether Gustafsson gets re-signed.
Jan 27 at 1:40
#4
#LeafsFever
Joined: May 2017
Posts: 3,483
Likes: 876
I don't think the Leafs and Hawks match up very well on a deal. Connor Murphy's value seems to get blown well out of proportion considering what he brings to the table, and the Leafs are deep enough at wing that someone like Saad, or even Shaw would probably not be a great fit, even though both of those player, and especially the latter, bring a grit element the Leafs currently do not have. If the Leafs make a meaningful move (a trade where they acquire a non-rental) I think they will be trading offense for defense. So, unless the Blackhawks are prepared to make a hockey trade like Johnsson for Murphy, which I think is more than a fair deal both ways, I don't see this working out. As a side note, if the Hawks retained some money, I do think the Leafs would be extremely interested in rental Lehner.
Jan 27 at 1:44
#5
Thread Starter
Austerity
Joined: Apr 2019
Posts: 111
Likes: 36
Quoting: MG1986
I don't think the Leafs and Hawks match up very well on a deal. Connor Murphy's value seems to get blown well out of proportion considering what he brings to the table, and the Leafs are deep enough at wing that someone like Saad, or even Shaw would probably not be a great fit, even though both of those player, and especially the latter, bring a grit element the Leafs currently do not have. If the Leafs make a meaningful move (a trade where they acquire a non-rental) I think they will be trading offense for defense. So, unless the Blackhawks are prepared to make a hockey trade like Johnsson for Murphy, which I think is more than a fair deal both ways, I don't see this working out. As a side note, if the Hawks retained some money, I do think the Leafs would be extremely interested in rental Lehner.


I like your take on the situation, but I think the current market for Defence is a seller's market: teams with Defence will want a premium, and Murphy is 6'4" EvErY TiMe He StEpS oN ThE IcE.

He's also got good underlying numbers. Obviously, the Leafs would be interested in rental Lehner - he solves any and all defence problems a team can have, and then you can run rested Robin and Freddy... perhaps run 11F and 7D for rested D as well, and cycle the hell out of the Leafs forwards.
Jan 27 at 1:49
#6
#LeafsFever
Joined: May 2017
Posts: 3,483
Likes: 876
Quoting: Austerity
I like your take on the situation, but I think the current market for Defence is a seller's market: teams with Defence will want a premium, and Murphy is 6'4" EvErY TiMe He StEpS oN ThE IcE.

He's also got good underlying numbers. Obviously, the Leafs would be interested in rental Lehner - he solves any and all defence problems a team can have, and then you can run rested Robin and Freddy... perhaps run 11F and 7D for rested D as well, and cycle the hell out of the Leafs forwards.


Based only on what I've read and seen, I really don't think the Leafs care much about size. Rasmus Sandin is 5'11, but can skate, shoot and hit. So, at least to this team, I don't think that matters as much as being able to keep up with the play, and jump in. I am not sure if you're a Leafs' fan or not, but you can see how the new system has affected a player like Justin Holl positively, who is 6'4 btw.

So, like I said, if the Hawks were prepared to make a hockey trade, I could see something Johnson for Murphy. If the Leafs were to have Lehner included, maybe that would mean Bracco, Timashov and a 2nd perhaps? It's a lot harder to figure out a rental goalie's value. The thing about a "sellers market" is that is more about rental players, and rental defenders. Connor Murphy is not a rental, so the market is quite a bit different, or perhaps does not even apply, to something like a more hockey-like trade, where it is less about future assets, and more about making the other team better in a different way. Also keep in mind, the Hawks are not completely out of it either, so a more hockey style trade might just be appealing to them. That said, I still believe there are better fits out there for Toronto. Philly comes to mind right off the bat.
Jan 27 at 1:57
#7
Joined: Apr 2019
Posts: 3,650
Likes: 834
I do think Murphy could be pryed out of Chicago, it will take an overpayment, are the Leafs willing to entertain giving Johnsson plus Lilly for Murphy? Or does it turn into something larger like Johnsson , Lilly, Bracco and 2020 2nd pick for Murphy and Saad with a million retained? Or am I just spewing nonsense
Jan 27 at 1:59
#8
Joined: Apr 2017
Posts: 875
Likes: 364
Quoting: MG1986
I don't think the Leafs and Hawks match up very well on a deal. Connor Murphy's value seems to get blown well out of proportion considering what he brings to the table, and the Leafs are deep enough at wing that someone like Saad, or even Shaw would probably not be a great fit, even though both of those player, and especially the latter, bring a grit element the Leafs currently do not have. If the Leafs make a meaningful move (a trade where they acquire a non-rental) I think they will be trading offense for defense. So, unless the Blackhawks are prepared to make a hockey trade like Johnsson for Murphy, which I think is more than a fair deal both ways, I don't see this working out. As a side note, if the Hawks retained some money, I do think the Leafs would be extremely interested in rental Lehner.


Everybody sleeps on Murphy. Its crazy that Leafs fans will downplay what they actually need the most: A top 4 DEFENSIVE dman. Johnsson trade really only fills your need, we're fine on scoring, we both need defense and we're giving that up.
Dach, exo2769 and Austerity liked this.
Jan 27 at 2:00
#9
exo2769
Joined: Jul 2015
Posts: 6,563
Likes: 1,932
Edited Jan 27 at 5:56
This is a very complicated question from the Hawks point of view without even introducing other teams. Yes, Shaw is loved in Chicago. He's also just got another concussion and has on occasion mentioned that he can't take too many more of those. DeHaan has had (I think ) 4 shoulder surgeries and I know 2 within the past 2 years on the same shoulder. ~$8M in cap crunch is there. The 1st thing the Hawks organization needs to do is better understand what Shaw/DeHaan want to do. Those are the 1st dominos when it comes to the long term situation for the Hawks. If those guys call it quits...those contracts aren't toooo hard to move. LTIR and insurance paying the salaries...I can think of a few teams that'll take that on for smaller assets.

The Hawks need more Connor Murphy's. Not less. So it would have to be a MASSIVE overpayment in order for Stan to listen. I'd also support that decision as a Hawks fan. You don't get a better hockey club by trading away your best players. So unless it's 99.9% certain that prospect is going to be something good...there's not a whole lot to talk about.

I hear @MG1986 when he says hockey trade because both teams want to win now (Leafs more likely this year than Hawks), but the example of Murhpy for Johnsson is a fleecing. That's NOT CLOSE to a hockey trade. The hardest position to find in the NHL today is RHD. The easiest position to find is middle six winger. I can't state enough how pissed I'd be to lose Murphy for a $3.4M - 25 year old - middle six winger. How about this trade. Saad for Reilly? It's just not close.

From the opposite view point...I'd suggest that Leafs fans overvalue their wingers. It's just pretty darn easy to find a winger that'll score ~40 points and it won't cost you $3.4M to do it. Every single year in the NHL there are wingers that make this production on ELCs. Every year. You don't find ELCs be top 4 RHD every year.

***EDIT*** Stan traded Kahun for Maatta. You can go back and check my history. I was pretty darn upset when that happened. Today...I don't mind the trade. I was wrong back then. I don't care about Kahun's 27 points in 48 games. Good for him. The Hawks need D and bad. Maatta's been pretty decent.
Austerity and CFMan liked this.
Jan 27 at 2:01
#10
The CEO of reported
Joined: Jun 2019
Posts: 386
Likes: 79
Quoting: MG1986
Don't kid yourself. The guy may be "loved", but that means nothing, and proof is in the pudding, since he was clearly already moved once out of Chicago.


There’s a reason why they’ve called him the mutt and he’s arguably one of the best grinders in the league
So you’re saying he’s not loved because he got moved one time? If you get a great offer for a player then obviously you’re gonna take it
Basically Shaw for Debrincat
Jan 27 at 2:01
#11
Joined: May 2015
Posts: 17,230
Likes: 4,687
Quoting: Dach
Shaw is one of the most loved blackhawks by far. He’s not getting moved
Although I would really like kapanen or johnsson


Does anyone even feel confident that he'll be able to come back healthy enough? I sure don't. Concussions, especially repeated concussions, are career killers.

He's good enough to still play but if you are that at risk for another concussion and you've already won cups and made millions... what are you risking your life for really? I don't think anyone would bat an eye if Shawzy just sailed into the sunset. he's got nothing more important to play for than his literal well being anymore. IMO.
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Jan 27 at 2:33
#12
Thread Starter
Austerity
Joined: Apr 2019
Posts: 111
Likes: 36
Good discussion we're having. As a Leafs fan (who was a big Hawks fan throughout the era where the Leafs were trash and prioritized Tyler Biggs because he biggs rather than talent), I think Murphy is the perfect fit for the Leafs and would be willing to pay a premium for him.

The question becomes would the Hawks listen to an offer, and what would it take? A cost-controlled 20ish goal scorer/pest in Johnsson is a nice piece, along with a few other pieces may do it. The situation is as complex as I sensed though, and Exo's post I liked a lot:

Quoting: exo2769
This is a very complicated question from the Hawks point of view without even introducing other teams. Yes, Shaw is loved in Chicago. He's also just got another concussion and has on occasion mentioned that he can't take too many more of those. DeHaan has had (I think ) 4 shoulder surgeries and I know 2 within the past 2 years on the same shoulder. ~$8M in cap crunch is there. The 1st thing the Hawks organization needs to do is better understand what Shaw/DeHaan want to do. Those are the 1st dominos when it comes to the long term situation for the Hawks. If those guys call it quits...those contracts aren't toooo hard to move. LTIR and insurance paying the salaries...I can think of a few teams that'll take that on for smaller assets.

The Hawks need more Connor Murphy's. Not less. So it would have to be a MASSIVE overpayment in order for Stan to listen. I'd also support that decision as a Hawks fan. You don't get a better hockey club by trading away your best players. So unless it's 99.9% certain that prospect is going to be something good...there's not a whole lot to talk about.

I hear @MG1986 when he says hockey trade because both teams want to win now (Leafs more likely this year than Hawks), but the example of Murhpy for Johnsson is a fleecing. That's NOT CLOSE to a hockey trade. The hardest position to find in the NHL today is RHD. The easiest position to find is middle six winger. I can't state enough how pissed I'd be to lose Murphy for a $3.4M - 25 year old - middle six winger. How about this trade. Saad for Reilly? It's just not close.

From the opposite view point...I'd suggest that Leafs fans overvalue their wingers. It's just pretty darn easy to find a winger that'll score ~40 points and it won't cost you $3.4M to do it. Every single year in the NHL there are wingers that make this production on ELCs. Every year. You don't find ELCs be top 4 RHD every year.

***EDIT*** Stan traded Kahun for Maatta. You can go back and check my history. I was darn pretty upset when that happened. Today...I don't mind the trade. I was wrong back then. I don't care about Kahun's 27 points in 48 games. Good for him. The Hawks need D and bad. Maatta's been pretty decent.


I guess another question becomes, if the Leafs were able to obtain Jokiharju from the Sabres and flip him to the Hawks in a 3-way deal, what would that take in both trades?

In my not-super-well-informed opinion, Jokiharju is a young RHD who projects to be approximately a 3rd defenceman for his whole career. I know the Hawks would be interested in having him back.

Is a deal for Murphy dead in the water if the 3-way route has to be taken? Will the Leafs have to give up too much to obtain Jokiharju in the first place?
exo2769 liked this.
Jan 27 at 5:07
#13
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: Aug 2017
Posts: 705
Likes: 262
Quoting: F50marco
Does anyone even feel confident that he'll be able to come back healthy enough? I sure don't. Concussions, especially repeated concussions, are career killers.

He's good enough to still play but if you are that at risk for another concussion and you've already won cups and made millions... what are you risking your life for really? I don't think anyone would bat an eye if Shawzy just sailed into the sunset. he's got nothing more important to play for than his literal well being anymore. IMO.


Personally, I don't think he's coming back. The lack of any talk about it, as well as "no updates no change" just says they are delaying the inevitable. And Shawzy ought to think about his family.
exo2769, CFMan, F50marco and 1 other person liked this.
Jan 27 at 6:07
#14
exo2769
Joined: Jul 2015
Posts: 6,563
Likes: 1,932
@Austerity I've followed Joki since he was drafted by the Hawks. Even his year in Portland in the WHL. The Joki for Nylander trade was Stan's single biggest mistake in his trading career. Arguable bigger than extending Seabs. Only time will tell. Joki's a stud. The only D prospect I saw in my lifetime that Coach Q actually trusted. AND he trusted him so much that Joki was tossed on the ice against McDavid when they played EDM. I don't see Joki getting traded.
Austerity and JackBurton liked this.
Jan 28 at 1:48
#15
Thread Starter
Austerity
Joined: Apr 2019
Posts: 111
Likes: 36
Edited Jan 28 at 2:06
Quoting: exo2769
@Austerity I've followed Joki since he was drafted by the Hawks. Even his year in Portland in the WHL. The Joki for Nylander trade was Stan's single biggest mistake in his trading career. Arguable bigger than extending Seabs. Only time will tell. Joki's a stud. The only D prospect I saw in my lifetime that Coach Q actually trusted. AND he trusted him so much that Joki was tossed on the ice against McDavid when they played EDM. I don't see Joki getting traded.


Yeah, that makes sense to me. His poise looks like his greatest strength from when I've watched him.

I think that the Leafs are kind dead in the water in looking for a certified top 4 RHD. In my opinion, Dumba costs too much and is too high of variance to go for. He's not even close to being guaranteed to be effective enough to justify the potential price tag.

I made a meme Armchair GM last Friday that was just on the cusp of being obvious, and it grabbed Martinez (for Nylander, of course) - what would the cost realistically be for him, and should the Leafs even bother trying to trade?

I'm starting to think they should just try a Lefty on the right side, even if they're less effective there, and run Sandin on 3LD for:

Rielly-Barrie
Muzzin-Holl
Sandin-Dermott

It's not a super tough D line, but it's fast and skilled. It just worries me on zone entries and clearing the front of the net... so the defensive part, lol. Maybe pick up Hainsey or DeMelo from Ottawa and run 7D?

Maybe a deal sending Johnsson to the Senators for Ennis and DeMelo would be a good idea (and possibly offloading Ceci)? I think it's possible Ennis would come back to Toronto and perform well, especially given Babcock being gone.
exo2769 liked this.
Jan 28 at 5:36
#16
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: Aug 2017
Posts: 705
Likes: 262
Quoting: exo2769
@Austerity I've followed Joki since he was drafted by the Hawks. Even his year in Portland in the WHL. The Joki for Nylander trade was Stan's single biggest mistake in his trading career. Arguable bigger than extending Seabs. Only time will tell. Joki's a stud. The only D prospect I saw in my lifetime that Coach Q actually trusted. AND he trusted him so much that Joki was tossed on the ice against McDavid when they played EDM. I don't see Joki getting traded.


The jury is still out on Jokiharju's ceiling (though we pretty well know by now that Nylander's ceiling is deer in the headlights), so right now I am still saying that Danault for ****ing Weise and ****ing Fleishchman or however the hell you spell his name was his worse trade. It was a garbage trade at the time, but considering the serviceability of a 3C that Danault could've been, what the Hawks have lost in that trade is DRAMATICALLY more than losing Jokiharju. So far... We'll see in a few years how that all ends up.

****ing Stan...
Jan 28 at 6:03
#17
exo2769
Joined: Jul 2015
Posts: 6,563
Likes: 1,932
Quoting: JackBurton
The jury is still out on Jokiharju's ceiling (though we pretty well know by now that Nylander's ceiling is deer in the headlights), so right now I am still saying that Danault for ****ing Weise and ****ing Fleishchman or however the hell you spell his name was his worse trade. It was a garbage trade at the time, but considering the serviceability of a 3C that Danault could've been, what the Hawks have lost in that trade is DRAMATICALLY more than losing Jokiharju. So far... We'll see in a few years how that all ends up.

****ing Stan...


The only thing I'd caveat to this is, that it was a TDL deal. TRUE the trade STUNK. TDL cost more than summer deals.
Jan 28 at 6:20
#18
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: Aug 2017
Posts: 705
Likes: 262
Quoting: exo2769
The only thing I'd caveat to this is, that it was a TDL deal. TRUE the trade STUNK. TDL cost more than summer deals.


For me, when it happens is completely meaningless. What was gained and what was lost are all that is at stake, and the Danault thing was a FAR worse loss, especially with so many solid looking defensemen in our pipeline (including Regula, who I'm quite high on), and a massive black hole where serviceable to good centermen should be.
 
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