Quoting: Austerity
I like your take on the situation, but I think the current market for Defence is a seller's market: teams with Defence will want a premium, and Murphy is 6'4" EvErY TiMe He StEpS oN ThE IcE.
He's also got good underlying numbers. Obviously, the Leafs would be interested in rental Lehner - he solves any and all defence problems a team can have, and then you can run rested Robin and Freddy... perhaps run 11F and 7D for rested D as well, and cycle the hell out of the Leafs forwards.
Based only on what I've read and seen, I really don't think the Leafs care much about size. Rasmus Sandin is 5'11, but can skate, shoot and hit. So, at least to this team, I don't think that matters as much as being able to keep up with the play, and jump in. I am not sure if you're a Leafs' fan or not, but you can see how the new system has affected a player like Justin Holl positively, who is 6'4 btw.
So, like I said, if the Hawks were prepared to make a hockey trade, I could see something Johnson for Murphy. If the Leafs were to have Lehner included, maybe that would mean Bracco, Timashov and a 2nd perhaps? It's a lot harder to figure out a rental goalie's value. The thing about a "sellers market" is that is more about rental players, and rental defenders. Connor Murphy is not a rental, so the market is quite a bit different, or perhaps does not even apply, to something like a more hockey-like trade, where it is less about future assets, and more about making the other team better in a different way. Also keep in mind, the Hawks are not completely out of it either, so a more hockey style trade might just be appealing to them. That said, I still believe there are better fits out there for Toronto. Philly comes to mind right off the bat.