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Player value discussion - From one season to the next?

Jan. 29, 2020 at 12:15 p.m.
#1
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I've seen a lot of this lately and I thought I'd start a discussion about it specifically. How much exactly does a players value go down or up for that matter from one season to the next if they are still young and were considered good/bad last year but having a down/good season this year?

Examples:

Down:
Josh Anderson
Josh Manson
Matt Dumba
William Nylander (Last year comparatively to the previous year to that)
Andres Johnsson
Kevin Labanc
Andreas Athanasiou
Ondrej Kase
Alex Tuch

Good:
Ryan Strome
Bryan Rust
Anthony Duclair
etc

How much does one (Or half if talking about this year) season make a difference to a players value in your mind. How does the once mighty untouchable Matt Dumb all of a sudden become a player Minny would start shopping? How is Ryan Strome, someone we all thought was a potential buyout candidate not too long ago all of a sudden a good player? Why do some players seem to get special treatment with the high criticism after having a slow year but others who have been pretty consistent find themselves "literally the worst player on the planet", after one bad season?

I excluded 28 year old and over players as I think the consensus is that those players are generally starting to slow down statistically. To varying extents obviously. Don't tell Ovechkin that but you get what I mean.
Jan. 29, 2020 at 12:33 p.m.
#2
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To start, theres a lot that goes into these valuations. Injuries, linemates, team direction etc. To go through a couple names that are battling injuries ("lowering value to fans") anderson, manson, dumba, tuch. All 4 guys had some sort of major injury and havent played stellar this year. It only hypothetically lowers their value, but most times you dont see these guys getting moved following injury because they arent recouping the same value as the season before. In the case of kase and athansiou, kase i think was being overvalued and is playing on a pretty bad ducks team. theres a couple guys that can still play there but its a clear rebuild. AA same deal as well as adding in injuries. Look at his linemates... look at the dcorp and goalie situation. Teams a mess, hes playing through injury on top of it to increase his own value but its hurting it instead. Johnsson i dont think his value has changed. Lebancs hit is strictly team situation, he had better linemates/ sharks had a better team last year than this year and its showing.

Now to the guys whos value has gone up: Rust, strome, nylander, duclair... Nylander im not sure why you included in the down category, his value is significantly higher this year than last year. however, its still unproven if he can drive play himself. hes played along 2 elite centers, its tough to gauge what he would be like outside that scenario. Strome is benefitting highly from panarin being on his wing. Duclair is having a career year scoring wise, I think Ottawa is just letting him play his game and not holding him back from how he likes to play, helps that hes being given the green light on shooting (easily his highest career shots attempted.) Rust gelled with malkin a ton, this is just a case of an injury working out in his favor. IDK that ide value rust any higher than he was previously because he was playing with malkin who was RED HOT while crosby was gone. 19.1% shot percentage is 7% points higher than his career best so you sort of have to take him with a grain of salt.
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Jan. 29, 2020 at 1:14 p.m.
#3
torontos finest
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There really is never a set value for a player. It varies based on a number of factors, the main ones being not only their general performance but the needs of a interested team. I think fans (especially on this website) put a lot of emphasis on the current performance of a player, or too much emphasis on their expected potential.
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Jan. 29, 2020 at 1:54 p.m.
#4
Thread Starter
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Quoting: mondo
There really is never a set value for a player. It varies based on a number of factors, the main ones being not only their general performance but the needs of a interested team. I think fans (especially on this website) put a lot of emphasis on the current performance of a player, or too much emphasis on their expected potential.


I agree with that last point 1000%.

This is what it seems to look like on here sometimes:

Current performance = 10x aggregate value.
Playing badly this year? You lost 10x the value you once had.
Playing good this year? You are 10x more valuable than the aggregate.

Or to put it CF AGM terms...

Playing good this year? "X player is untouchable, you'd have to trade McDavid for us to consider it".
Playing bad this year? "I wouldn't even trade a 7th rounder for X player".

The same goes for prospects....

Did X prospect play in the WJHC? Add 10x value. A current actual 50 goal scorer might be enough to get you this prospect that if everything works out perfectly, might score 40 goals, one day..... maybe.
Did X prospect have less points in AHL than a 28 year old career AHL'er? Remove 1st round stud status, permitted to be called bust from this point on, "Might be able to get a 5th for him" now. etc.


In reality:

Josh Anderson is still a good player that teams want despite having crappy numbers this year. Matt Dumba is still a solid dman and even if his injury has taken a bite out of him, he'll still be a top line dman once he fully recovers. Bryan Rust is probably not a PPG potential player and really isn't something we should expect every year. People would have a much better opinion of Athanasiou if he were playing in TB the past two years instead of Detroit. etc etc etc
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Jan. 29, 2020 at 2:39 p.m.
#5
Below Market Value
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Draft pedigree, relative progression, and teammate performance has a lot to do with it too. Matt Dumba was a top 10 pick, and his offensive numbers progressed positively in each season before this one. At this time last year, it's possible that Brodin was more on the trading block just due to the fact that Dumba was having a monster year before his injury. Now, Brodin is having a great year while Dumba lags behind.

Minnesota is also believed to have a surplus of defensemen, and a shortage of scoring forwards. The looming expansion draft also could be in the back of people's minds. Does Minnesota protect all four of Suter, Spurgeon, Brodin, and Dumba? Or do they trade one of them while they can to bolster the forward group and avoid losing even more players to Seattle, a la Alex Tuch and Erik Haula (who both would be great fits on this current Minnesota team)? Suter and Spurgeon can literally not be moved--barring their own permission--so any blue line trade would likely be a choice between Brodin and Dumba. Both are in the prime of their careers, so value should be high, even with the down season Dumba is having.
Feb. 1, 2020 at 10:40 a.m.
#6
Once a Kings Fan Too
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I think much of the fluctuation has to do with (false) perception. Labanc is a prime example. He had 17 goals last season and he's right on pace for that this year. Only his assists are down, and San Jose is one of the 6 worst offensive teams in the League, so that drop shouldn't surprise -- his teammates aren't scoring goals. Kase is similar -- he plays on one of the three teams in the bottom decile offensively, so his numbers aren't good. But as a fan who has seen every game he's ever played in the NHL, I think the effort is there and he has the skills to be a top 6 forward on any team.

In short, most of the players on your "down" list would be welcome on any team. It's just the fans whose judgment is dubious. Like that segment of Leafs Nation which seems intent on hating one particular player every season (Zaitsev and Ceci, for example) in order to subconsciously blame them for the team's lack of playoff success.
 
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