SalarySwishSalarySwish
Forums/Armchair-GM

Big Big Moves 2020 Summer

Created by: Sufferingleafsfan
Team: 2020-21 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Jan. 30, 2020
Published: Jan. 30, 2020
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
So this is probably going to piss off a lot of people.

The Leafs Nation Website today posted this article: https://theleafsnation.com/2020/01/29/should-the-leafs-consider-trading-morgan-rielly/

The article makes the following major points:
-More and more reports of Muzzin signing an extension are being floated.
-If Muzzin does that means the Leafs left-side next season is: Rielly, Muzzin, Dermott, Sandin. That means someone is playing on their off-side. In that situation, pairings are probably:
Muzzin-Holl
Rielly-Liljegren(possibly a UFA but that opens a different issue)
Sandin-Dermott
-A d-corps that keeps Muzzin and ships out Rielly to make room for a top-2 right shooting D-man
-The article suggests Parayko from STL. Giving us the following pairings:
Muzzin-Holl (the article calls for Muzzin-Liljegren I like Muzzin Holl more)
Sandin-Parayko
Dermott-Liljegren

My take on this.
The BIG issue I see with Rielly is that his next contract will probably demand 8mil+ a season (barring some crazy-big drop-off in production) that puts him in-line for a 3mil raise at the same time Sanding is going to be in-line for a 5mil raise and Liljegren will be in-line for a raise as well. Also only 1 season prior to Holl needing a raise. All of these next-contract cap considerations are manageable. Now let's imagine a Jake Muzzin 6.5mil contract that will be occurring over this timespan. For argument's sake, I'd say we're looking a this for Muzzing 4x7mil OR 5x6.5mil OR 6x6mil. In any of these scenarios the Dubas and co. will be looking to extend Rielly, Sandin and Liljegren while 6mil+ is on the books for Muzzin. Are these cap-considerations insurmountable? NO of course not BUT I would argue that Rielly/Muzzin + Dermott + Sandin is enough LD depth and for the development of Dermott and Sandin one of them shouldn't be playing LD3 minutes while the other plays on their off-side. The cap considerations also add to that.

I also agree with the thesis of the article from Leafs Nation that a stronger Leafs D would look like this:
Rielly/Muzzin - Top 2 RHD (Pietrangelo, Parayko, Fabbro, Doughty, Manson)
Sandin - Holl
Dermott - Liljegren

I think the logic from the LD on RD side experiment of previous seasons with the Leafs shows that getting a bonafide top-2 RHD in to play in-front of Holl and Liljegren should be the priority over having both Muzzin and Rielly in the lineup.

So this leads to the ACGM. I am going to take the thesis that we should trade Rielly. I'm going to accept that although the way I see it is that we should be making a choice between Rielly and Muzzin. I personally think there are going to be pros and cons to both. The biggest contrast I see is that Muzzin is more defensively responsible but is older and he may have lost a step by time his contract expires. Again I'm going to make this team by accepting the premise that we should trade Rielly.

NOW THE TRADES
EDM - turning bubble players into a pick
NYR - I promised you I'd do it. The Rielly trade. The Rangers LD is actually weaker than their RD. Rielly playing with Trouba or Deangelo is hard to pass up on. Fox is obviously the odd-man-out. Younger RD + 1st for established Norris contending LD is pretty fair. I think
NSH - Fabbro is an excellent piece. The preds want to get back in the picture ASAP is my bet. Sending back Johnsson and Bracco who are top 9 proven and ready for a shot respectively is good return + a 1st rounder and a B prospect. This should be hard for Poile to pass on.

The trades and signings leave the Leafs with enough cap-space to make some mid-season moves as well if there are any holes that need shoring up.

I think that these trades are particularly Dubas-like as they bring in players who will make the Leafs better now but have an exceptionally large development upside.

To return to the problems from the start of this post I think that this will improve the Leafs d immediately and space out the issues of salary-cap more. To return to my earlier point about not having too much preference around Muzzin/Rielly. A couple of things to note if the Leafs go the don't extend Muzzin and keep Rielly route.
1. The Leafs still need to bring in someone like Fabbro - a well rounded more defensively-mind RHD. I'd propose that Fabbro playing with Rielly wouldn't be bad. A cheaper route could be Manson from ANA.
2. Be wary of the big-swing signing. I'd be really really concerned about the Leafs if we keep Rielly and swing for Pietrangelo as a UFA. The team will have A LOT of huge contracts weighing it down.
3. A no Muzzin keep Rielly pairing setup. COULD BE:
Rielly-Manson (I'd bet Johnsson, B prospect, 2nd, 4th gets the job done)
Dermott-Holl (I like this pairing a lot)
Sandin-Cheap 5/6D in early 30s (think Hainsey to Rielly - Engelland would be great)
Marincin - Liljegren (I'm in the camp that Liljegren may not be as ready as people think)

So there we have it. A crazy ACGM based on an interesting idea
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
5$3,120,000
3$1,200,000
3$950,000
2$1,150,000
3$800,000
3$800,000
3$800,000
3$800,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
5$6,000,000
1$750,000
CREATEDYEARSCAP HIT
Bilyalov, Timur
1$925,000
Trades
1.
TOR
  1. 2020 4th round pick (EDM)
2.
TOR
  1. Andersson, Lias
  2. Fox, Adam
  3. 2020 1st round pick (NYR)
  4. 2020 3rd round pick (DAL)
  5. 2020 5th round pick (NYR)
NYR
  1. Kara, Vladislav [Reserve List]
  2. Rielly, Morgan
  3. 2020 6th round pick (CAR)
  4. 2020 7th round pick (SJS)
3.
TOR
  1. Fabbro, Dante
  2. 2020 5th round pick (NSH)
NSH
  1. Bracco, Jeremy [RFA Rights]
  2. Johnsson, Andreas
  3. Kivihalme, Teemu [RFA Rights]
  4. 2020 1st round pick (NYR)
  5. 2020 7th round pick (WPG)
Retained Salary Transactions
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2020
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the DAL
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the VGK
Logo of the NYR
Logo of the NSH
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the COL
Logo of the STL
2021
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
2022
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
21$83,500,000$76,133,116$0$2,100,000$7,366,884

Roster

Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,250,000$2,250,000
RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,640,250$11,640,250
C
UFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$10,903,000$10,903,000
RW
UFA - 5
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,150,000$1,150,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,000,000$11,000,000
C, LW
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$6,962,366$6,962,366
RW
UFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,200,000$1,200,000
RW, LW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$3,500,000$3,500,000
LW, C, RW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$3,200,000$3,200,000
RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$775,000$775,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$950,000$950,000
C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$750,000$750,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$6,000,000$6,000,000
LD
UFA - 4
Logo of the New York Rangers
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
RD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,000,000$5,000,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$3,120,000$3,120,000
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Nashville Predators
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$894,167$894,167
LD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,000,000$2,000,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Bilyalov, Timur
$925,000$925,000
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$400,000$400K)
RD
RFA - 2

Embed Code

  • To display this team on another website or blog, add this iFrame to the appropriate page
  • Customize the height attribute in the iFrame code below to fit your website appropriately. Minimum recommended: 400px.

Text-Embed

Click to Highlight
Keeping Rielly. Who should Leafs trade for / sign for RHD
The chart has been hidden

Poll Options


Jan. 30, 2020 at 5:18 p.m.
#1
Banned
Avatar of the user
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 24,997
Likes: 7,855
Man I hate the internet some days. Its been what 3 months? 4 months since Rielly was in the running for Captaincy and now half of fans want to move him because he had a rough start while playing injured. This despite, playing the toughest minutes most nights and playing more than anyone other defender in TO and had to carry Ceci for most of the first half of the season. But what have you done for me lately. Tavares hasn't scored in a game, lets trade him for anything.
CD282 liked this.
Jan. 30, 2020 at 5:24 p.m.
#2
Thread Starter
Sufferingleafsfan
Avatar of the user
Joined: Oct. 2019
Posts: 114
Likes: 24
Quoting: PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood
Man I hate the internet some days. Its been what 3 months? 4 months since Rielly was in the running for Captaincy and now half of fans want to move him because he had a rough start while playing injured. This despite, playing the toughest minutes most nights and playing more than anyone other defender in TO and had to carry Ceci for most of the first half of the season. But what have you done for me lately. Tavares hasn't scored in a game, lets trade him for anything.


So if you'd read what I posted this is an exercise more around the issue of keeping both Rielly and Muzzin. I think Rielly's a phenomenal hockey player - I agree with your assessment of the situation 100%. I'm not coming on here and going 'Rielly sucks **** him trade him'. The point of this post is to try to illustrate and think about who should be kept out of Rielly and Muzzin because a Rielly-Muzzin-Dermott-Sandin left side clearly leaves someone as the odd-man-out. yes the roster and trades take the trade Rielly standpoint to try and illustrate and see what would happen in this situation.
GenXHockey liked this.
Jan. 30, 2020 at 5:35 p.m.
#3
Avatar of the user
Joined: May 2019
Posts: 10,200
Likes: 7,089
for NSH - yeah, the only thing that would make Poile consider trading Fabbro would be that NYR 1st. Everything else is pretty meh honestly. But it doesn't really matter because NYR won't trade their 1st this year. And I just don't see NSH trading Fabbro either - NSH needs defense more than anything and he is young and looks great right now. And if they need offense, it is a 1st/2nd line scorer, not Johnsson or Bracco.

Oh and Bracco isn't a top 9 proven like you say - if that were the case, he would be playing in the NHL right now.
Jan. 30, 2020 at 5:40 p.m.
#4
Formerly Jamiepo
Avatar of the user
Joined: Jul. 2018
Posts: 21,155
Likes: 10,700
Quoting: Sufferingleafsfan
So if you'd read what I posted this is an exercise more around the issue of keeping both Rielly and Muzzin. I think Rielly's a phenomenal hockey player - I agree with your assessment of the situation 100%. I'm not coming on here and going 'Rielly sucks **** him trade him'. The point of this post is to try to illustrate and think about who should be kept out of Rielly and Muzzin because a Rielly-Muzzin-Dermott-Sandin left side clearly leaves someone as the odd-man-out. yes the roster and trades take the trade Rielly standpoint to try and illustrate and see what would happen in this situation.


I think Rielly stays and the leafs find a way to fit him. Think he signs a reasonable contract with 8 years of term that will pay him 55-60m
Jan. 30, 2020 at 6:04 p.m.
#5
Banned
Avatar of the user
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 24,997
Likes: 7,855
Quoting: Sufferingleafsfan
So if you'd read what I posted this is an exercise more around the issue of keeping both Rielly and Muzzin. I think Rielly's a phenomenal hockey player - I agree with your assessment of the situation 100%. I'm not coming on here and going 'Rielly sucks **** him trade him'. The point of this post is to try to illustrate and think about who should be kept out of Rielly and Muzzin because a Rielly-Muzzin-Dermott-Sandin left side clearly leaves someone as the odd-man-out. yes the roster and trades take the trade Rielly standpoint to try and illustrate and see what would happen in this situation.


There is zero debate. Rielly is 25, you keep him because he is going to be great for years to come. Muzzin is about to be 31, his best days are in the past. End of debate.
Jan. 30, 2020 at 6:06 p.m.
#6
Thread Starter
Sufferingleafsfan
Avatar of the user
Joined: Oct. 2019
Posts: 114
Likes: 24
Quoting: villenash
for NSH - yeah, the only thing that would make Poile consider trading Fabbro would be that NYR 1st. Everything else is pretty meh honestly. But it doesn't really matter because NYR won't trade their 1st this year. And I just don't see NSH trading Fabbro either - NSH needs defense more than anything and he is young and looks great right now. And if they need offense, it is a 1st/2nd line scorer, not Johnsson or Bracco.

Oh and Bracco isn't a top 9 proven like you say - if that were the case, he would be playing in the NHL right now.


My structure was a little off there was saying Johnsson is proven top 9 and Bracco is worth a shot. I'd say also that NSH's needs are on offence as they have pretty good d-depth right now
Jan. 30, 2020 at 6:08 p.m.
#7
Thread Starter
Sufferingleafsfan
Avatar of the user
Joined: Oct. 2019
Posts: 114
Likes: 24
Quoting: PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood
There is zero debate. Rielly is 25, you keep him because he is going to be great for years to come. Muzzin is about to be 31, his best days are in the past. End of debate.


I can see that your username comes from your sparkling personality. wink I do agree with you though I'd lean towards Rielly. This is whole thing is about making the right decision between them both and I do agree that Rielly is the better choice
Jan. 30, 2020 at 6:11 p.m.
#8
Avatar of the user
Joined: May 2019
Posts: 10,200
Likes: 7,089
Quoting: Sufferingleafsfan
My structure was a little off there was saying Johnsson is proven top 9 and Bracco is worth a shot. I'd say also that NSH's needs are on offence as they have pretty good d-depth right now


If you trade fabbro, our d falls off a cliff after the top 3 - Irwin, Weber, Hamhuis, Tinordi -- that's not very good depth. And we don't have much in the form of prospects either. NSH has been scoring goals at a high rate all season. I'd say their top needs are goaltending, defense, offense - in that order. But I would still love to add a top 6 scorer.
Jan. 30, 2020 at 6:12 p.m.
#9
tomato
Avatar of the user
Joined: Oct. 2018
Posts: 526
Likes: 305
I like the creativity and the willingness to think outside the box. I have even proposed scenarios where Rielly is the odd man out while resigning Muzzin. The problems i see with your proposal are i dont think you will get that return from the Rangers for Rielly. They seem more apt to move on from DeAngelo for some reason. I really envy there RHD depth especially with Lundkvist on the come up. If i were them i wouldn't trade Fox for Rielly. I see a huge amount of potential for Fox and he is still only almost 22 and he is having just as good of a season as Rielly is so far, probably better. That isn't taking Riellys injury into account but with his age the fact that he is still on an entry level deal for 2 more years along with his upside, i wouldn't trade fox 1 for 1 if i were them, let alone add a first rounder and the rest. Rielly will need to be on the first unit power play to maximize his potential. The Rangers already have that spot covered.

Calling Bracco a top 9 proven player when he hasn't played a single NHL game is a bit of a stretch. Nashville are becoming an older team with lots of guys locked into long term deals that will take them into there mid 30s. i see them wanting to hold onto there youth and not trading Fabbro.
Jan. 30, 2020 at 6:12 p.m.
#10
Banned
Avatar of the user
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 24,997
Likes: 7,855
Quoting: Sufferingleafsfan
I can see that your username comes from your sparkling personality. wink I do agree with you though I'd lean towards Rielly. This is whole thing is about making the right decision between them both and I do agree that Rielly is the better choice


Rielly was 5th in Norris voting last season and has been dealing with an injury for all of this season. I get so annoyed because I can't for the life of me understand why anyone would even consider trading Rielly. It's a complete mystery
Jan. 30, 2020 at 6:15 p.m.
#11
Thread Starter
Sufferingleafsfan
Avatar of the user
Joined: Oct. 2019
Posts: 114
Likes: 24
Quoting: Jamiepo
I think Rielly stays and the leafs find a way to fit him. Think he signs a reasonable contract with 8 years of term that will pay him 55-60m


I agree that the Leafs will push to make him fit. I think it's highly unlikely Rielly is going to sign on an AAV between 6.875mil and 7.5mil. Comparables around the league: Trouba (8mil) Edler (6mil) Johnson (6mil) Myers (6mil) Seabrook (6.875) All contracts signed roughly around the time in their careers Rielly will be resigning at with similar (if even worse) results to Rielly. With the increase in the cap since those signings and with the increases that will come over the next couple seasons. Also given Rielly is making 5mil right now most players in that range of their careers with his skill level see at minimum a 2.5mil bump to their next contract. I'd say the starting point for Rielly's next contract would be 7.5. I would bet he'll be at 8mil per for 8, possibly higher if other trends around the league go that way
Jan. 30, 2020 at 6:18 p.m.
#12
Avatar of the user
Joined: Jun. 2019
Posts: 37,918
Likes: 19,294
Not sure if you are aware but Fox refuses to play for any team not named New York Rangers so thats a waste of a trade.
Jan. 30, 2020 at 6:18 p.m.
#13
Thread Starter
Sufferingleafsfan
Avatar of the user
Joined: Oct. 2019
Posts: 114
Likes: 24
Quoting: PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood
Rielly was 5th in Norris voting last season and has been dealing with an injury for all of this season. I get so annoyed because I can't for the life of me understand why anyone would even consider trading Rielly. It's a complete mystery


I think the idea stems from the idea of how packed the Leafs left-side will be come next season if they resign Muzzin. I do agree with you though he should stay
Jan. 30, 2020 at 6:39 p.m.
#14
Banned
Avatar of the user
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 24,997
Likes: 7,855
Quoting: Sufferingleafsfan
I think the idea stems from the idea of how packed the Leafs left-side will be come next season if they resign Muzzin. I do agree with you though he should stay


The way the team plays I don't think you necessarily need to worry about left and right shots as much. Players switch a lot and and circle back. It's way less important under Keefe. Plus Dermott is good on the right side.
 
Reply
To create a post please Login or Register
Question:
Options:
Loading animation
Submit Poll Edit