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Toronto Misses the Playoffs and Dubas Rolls the Dice

Created by: OldNYIfan
Team: 2020-21 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Feb. 3, 2020
Published: Feb. 3, 2020
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
I know this is wildly unrealistic due to Morgan Rielly's very high value, but before looking only at the trade and giving me a reflexive reaction, hear me out.

To begin with, the premise of this scenario is that the Maple Leafs miss the playoffs and end up with the 10th overall draft position, in which case Toronto's first-round pick reverts to the Maple Leafs. Meanwhile, Edmonton finishes second in the Pacific and gets the 23rd overall draft position.

If Toronto misses the dance this year with the current defense, then given the state of flux of the defense for next year (only Rielly, Holl, Liljegren and Sandin signed), they are a favorite to miss the playoffs next year, too. This trade sets the defense for the foreseeable future by filling it with high-quality prospects. Meanwhile, the draft card goes from thin to exciting. Next year may see some growing pains, but this is going to be a powerful team in 2021-2022.

I'd rather sign Dylan Demelo at $4 million or less than Mikheyev, but I don't think that's going to be possible. He's not going to get Chabot money, but he's going to be expensive.

I have trouble suggesting backup-goalie-candidates for both Edmonton and Toronto, hence the blank.

I don't want to hear any whining about Edmonton not needing Rielly. Contemporaneous with this trade, Edmonton trades Darnell Nurse to Montreal for Max Domi. See my companion post.

Despite the fact that I've already floated this idea in the Forums section, I'm ready for incoming, including from those that have already opined on this scheme. Let's have fun fantasizing!
Free Agent Signings
RESERVE LISTYEARSCAP HIT
3$766,666
3$733,333
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
4$2,750,000
4$2,500,000
3$2,250,000
2$1,500,000
2$1,050,000
2$900,000
1$900,000
1$850,000
1$750,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
4$5,250,000
1$750,000
Trades
1.
TOR
  1. 2020 1st round pick (TOR)
Additional Details:
Condition of the Marleau de-acquisition
CAR
  1. 2021 1st round pick (TOR)
Additional Details:
Condition of the Marleau de-acquisition
2.
TOR
  1. Bear, Ethan [RFA Rights]
  2. Bouchard, Evan
  3. 2020 1st round pick (EDM)
EDM
  1. Rielly, Morgan
Retained Salary Transactions
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2020
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the VGK
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the CAR
Logo of the COL
Logo of the SJS
Logo of the STL
Logo of the WPG
2021
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
2022
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
22$83,500,000$81,401,449$0$900,000$2,098,551
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
Johnsson, Andreas
$3,400,000$3,400,000
LW, RW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
Matthews, Auston
$11,640,250$11,640,250
C
UFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
Marner, Mitchell
$10,903,000$10,903,000
RW
UFA - 5
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
Hyman, Zach
$2,250,000$2,250,000
RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
Tavares, John
$11,000,000$11,000,000
C, LW
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
Nylander, William
$6,962,366$6,962,366
RW
UFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
Mikheyev, Ilya
$2,750,000$2,750,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
Kerfoot, Alexander
$3,500,000$3,500,000
LW, C, RW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
Kapanen, Kasperi
$3,200,000$3,200,000
RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
Engvall, Pierre
$1,500,000$1,500,000
RW, LW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
Moore, Trevor
$775,000$775,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
Timashov, Dmytro
$1,050,000$1,050,000
LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
Gauthier, Frédérik
$900,000$900,000
C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
Spezza, Jason
$750,000$750,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
Muzzin, Jake
$5,250,000$5,250,000
LD
UFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
Holl, Justin
$2,000,000$2,000,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
Andersen, Frederik
$5,000,000$5,000,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
Dermott, Travis
$2,500,000$2,500,000
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Bear, Ethan
$2,250,000$2,250,000
RD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
Sandin, Rasmus
$894,167$894,167
LD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
Liljegren, Timothy
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$400,000$400K)
RD
RFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
Bouchard, Evan
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$500,000$500K)
RD
RFA - 3

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Feb. 3, 2020 at 2:20 p.m.
#1
PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood
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Take out the first however many games under Babcock and TO is a top team in the league. They'll make the playoffs as long as they stay healthy.
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Feb. 3, 2020 at 2:20 p.m.
#2
Couturier
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Morgan Rielly isn't the same player he was last year. He's on pace for under 50 points this year and he'll be a UFA in two years. That's essentially two first round picks and a defenseman with top-four potential that Edmonton is getting in return. Way too much for a team that's not even going all-in.
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Feb. 3, 2020 at 2:23 p.m.
#3
OldNYIfan
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Quoting: PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood
Take out the first however many games under Babcock and TO is a top team in the league. They'll make the playoffs as long as they stay healthy.


Well, that's my hope. This is an effort to suggest an alternative strategy that could only really happen on paper, but I thought it would be fun to discuss. I've tried to improve all three teams involved (including Montreal).
Feb. 3, 2020 at 2:24 p.m.
#4
GenXHockey
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Quoting: Couturier
Morgan Rielly isn't the same player he was last year. He's on pace for under 50 points this year and he'll be a UFA in two years. That's essentially two first round picks and a defenseman with top-four potential that Edmonton is getting in return. Way too much for a team that's not even going all-in.


Rielly has been playing injured all season.
Feb. 3, 2020 at 2:25 p.m.
#5
OldNYIfan
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Quoting: Couturier
Morgan Rielly isn't the same player he was last year. He's on pace for under 50 points this year and he'll be a UFA in two years. That's essentially two first round picks and a defenseman with top-four potential that Edmonton is getting in return. Way too much for a team that's not even going all-in.


Thanks for the input. (I assume you meant "giving" and not "getting.") Rielly has played injured this year and is still one of the best defensemen in the league, and I am confident he will rebound next year.
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Feb. 3, 2020 at 2:26 p.m.
#6
TMLSage
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Leafs are not trading Rielly as he is a top 5 defenceman in entire NHL when he is healthy and Leafs window to compete is now and not waiting and hoping Bouchard and Bear develope.
Feb. 3, 2020 at 2:28 p.m.
#7
GenXHockey
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For a return like that the leafs would have to say yes.

Outside of the premise you have built there is no way the leafs trade Rielly.
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Feb. 3, 2020 at 2:32 p.m.
#8
OldNYIfan
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Quoting: TMLSage
Leafs are not trading Rielly as he is a top 5 defenceman in entire NHL when he is healthy and Leafs window to compete is now and not waiting and hoping Bouchard and Bear develope.


How is Toronto's window "now" when they're currently out of the playoffs?

I understand and accept all the reasons not to trade Rielly, most of which have already been suggested by @Jamiepo in our Forums thread, but yours isn't a valid one, in my opinion.
Feb. 3, 2020 at 2:33 p.m.
#9
GenXHockey
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Quoting: OldNYIfan
How is Toronto's window "now" when they're currently out of the playoffs?

I understand and accept all the reasons not to trade Rielly, most of which have already been suggested by @Jamiepo in our Forums thread, but yours isn't a valid one, in my opinion.


Ummmm.... we are in the playoffs... lol
Feb. 3, 2020 at 2:34 p.m.
#10
OldNYIfan
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Quoting: Jamiepo
For a return like that the leafs would have to say yes.

Outside of the premise you have built there is no way the leafs trade Rielly.


Yes, this is my point, and I would strengthen your statement to "Outside of the premise you have built, there is no way the Leafs would even consider trading Rielly."
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Feb. 3, 2020 at 2:35 p.m.
#11
GenXHockey
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Quoting: OldNYIfan
Yes, this is my point, and I would strengthen your statement to "Outside of the premise you have built, there is no way the Leafs would even consider trading Rielly."


Yup, it would have to be another team approaching us with a wild offer. I just don’t see that happening.
Feb. 3, 2020 at 2:36 p.m.
#12
OldNYIfan
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Quoting: Jamiepo
Ummmm.... we are in the playoffs... lol


Florida has two games in hand. Today's game is pretty significant.
Feb. 3, 2020 at 2:37 p.m.
#13
OldNYIfan
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Quoting: Jamiepo
Yup, it would have to be another team approaching us with a wild offer. I just don’t see that happening.


Yeah, but it's so much fun to speculate. Thinking about scenarios like this is like dreaming of winning the lottery: it's playing with someone else's money.
Feb. 3, 2020 at 2:39 p.m.
#14
PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood
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Quoting: Couturier
Morgan Rielly isn't the same player he was last year. He's on pace for under 50 points this year and he'll be a UFA in two years. That's essentially two first round picks and a defenseman with top-four potential that Edmonton is getting in return. Way too much for a team that's not even going all-in.


Been injured and is coming off a career year, that means he's now worthless and should get no return. The logic on this site is hilarious.
Feb. 3, 2020 at 2:41 p.m.
#15
PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood
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Quoting: OldNYIfan
Florida has two games in hand. Today's game is pretty significant.


The Leafs are in the playoff through the wildcard as well. TO is a playoff team hands down. 2 of Florida, Philly, Columbus or even the Islanders could falter.
Feb. 3, 2020 at 2:50 p.m.
#16
OldNYIfan
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Quoting: PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood
The Leafs are in the playoff through the wildcard as well. TO is a playoff team hands down. 2 of Florida, Philly, Columbus or even the Islanders could falter.


It's not a sure thing by any means. There are 6 teams competing for 4 playoff slots: right now, Columbus, the Islanders and Florida are ahead of Toronto and Toronto has the tie-breaker on Carolina and Philadelphia. The Maple Leafs are either going to have to maintain that advantage or hope that one of the other three teams falters. Of course, the easiest path for Toronto to the playoffs is that they outpoint Florida the rest of the way.
Feb. 3, 2020 at 3:00 p.m.
#17
GenXHockey
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Quoting: OldNYIfan
Florida has two games in hand. Today's game is pretty significant.


Leafs will win. Money in the bank.
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Feb. 3, 2020 at 3:05 p.m.
#18
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Quoting: PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood
Been injured and is coming off a career year, that means he's now worthless and should get no return. The logic on this site is hilarious.


Okay, you're overreacting. I was not even close to saying that he has no value. Edmonton doesn't need to give up that much for a two year rental when Bouchard, Bear, and that first-round pick can help make them a steady contender within a few years. If you actually think that an injured or healthy Rielly will bring that kind of return, considering the situation Edmonton is in right now, then you're super delusional lol
Feb. 3, 2020 at 3:08 p.m.
#19
OldNYIfan
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Quoting: Couturier
Okay, you're overreacting. I was not even close to saying that he has no value. Edmonton doesn't need to give up that much for a two year rental when Bouchard, Bear, and that first-round pick can help make them a steady contender within a few years. If you actually think that an injured or healthy Rielly will bring that kind of return, considering the situation Edmonton is in right now, then you're super delusional lol


Do you want to contend "within a few years" or do you want to contend next season?
Feb. 3, 2020 at 3:11 p.m.
#20
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Quoting: OldNYIfan
Do you want to contend "within a few years" or do you want to contend next season?


I'll prefer a few years if I'm giving up all of that. Take out Bouchard in the trade and maybe Edmonton accepts.
Feb. 3, 2020 at 3:12 p.m.
#21
PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood
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Quoting: OldNYIfan
It's not a sure thing by any means. There are 6 teams competing for 4 playoff slots: right now, Columbus, the Islanders and Florida are ahead of Toronto and Toronto has the tie-breaker on Carolina and Philadelphia. The Maple Leafs are either going to have to maintain that advantage or hope that one of the other three teams falters. Of course, the easiest path for Toronto to the playoffs is that they outpoint Florida the rest of the way.


The whole notion of teams being ahead of other teams based on having games in hand they have not yet won is silly. Florida is 2 points behind TO, until they win those games in hand, they are just potential points not points.
Feb. 3, 2020 at 3:13 p.m.
#22
CD282
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Zero reason for Edmonton to do this. RHD has long been a weakness, they finally get 2 good young RHD and they should trade them for a LHD? Makes absolutely no sense from their standpoint.
Feb. 3, 2020 at 3:14 p.m.
#23
PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood
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Quoting: Couturier
Okay, you're overreacting. I was not even close to saying that he has no value. Edmonton doesn't need to give up that much for a two year rental when Bouchard, Bear, and that first-round pick can help make them a steady contender within a few years. If you actually think that an injured or healthy Rielly will bring that kind of return, considering the situation Edmonton is in right now, then you're super delusional lol


The point I am making is that not even a full season ago, Rielly was a 25 year, 5th in Norris voting superstar and potential captain of the Leafs. He's been injured this year and now, lets move him, he's not what he used to be. Its ridiculous. Are we going to do the same thing to Matthews if he doesn't score 40 goals next year? Speaking of overreactions, watching Rielly go from Captain material to trade him to anyone who will give us an okay return because he was injured earlier this year.
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Feb. 3, 2020 at 3:15 p.m.
#24
PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood
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Zero reason for Edmonton to do this. RHD has long been a weakness, they finally get 2 good young RHD and they should trade them for a LHD? Makes absolutely no sense from their standpoint.


Also Bouchard is already better then Rielly.
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Feb. 3, 2020 at 3:17 p.m.
#25
CD282
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Quoting: PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood
Also Bouchard is already better then Rielly.


laugh
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