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A Question answered with a theory

Created by: HatterTParty
Team: 2019-20 Chicago Blackhawks
Initial Creation Date: Feb. 4, 2020
Published: Feb. 4, 2020
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Yesterday, in another hawks thread, someone suggested a trade (I don’t remember what it exactly was) that would see beaudin and a pick sent to another team for assets. ChiHawk, a long term user and knowledgeable fan answered with a question. Why would we do that? We knew that he would take 3-4 years to develop, he said. Why would we waste his development? It got me thinking about the last two years and this is what I came up with. It’s more or less a two fold theory. It requires turning the clock back two years though.

June 2018. The hawks come off a terrible year. Everything Stan bowman thought would still work turned to ****. The hawks are given a top ten pick in the draft and also gain a another first rounder. With it come boqvist and beaudin. The former needs a year or two to develop, the latter a few years. No problem. After the past year, it’s clear things are not the same in Chicago, even with toews and Kane in their prime. Fast forward to the next season. The team does absolutely ZERO to improve its roster, bowman uses Q as a scapegoat for his own incompetence, and we are left with an inexperienced, defensive coach. However, schmaltz is traded for strome, and strome remembers he actually plays hockey for a living. The team finishes the year positively, only 6 points out of the playoffs. THAT IS WHERE THE PROBLEM STARTED. Lost in the mix is the fact that we didn’t cash in on Gus.

Here is the first part of the theory: the front office. This team returned somewhat to form last year. Kane and toews are still doing good and, albeit completely undeserved, they manage to get the third overall pick. Things are trending the hawks way! Right? Let’s remind everyone: a year prior, the team was in tatters. There was no signs of positive trending. It was at least a sign that a rebuild and patience was maybe necessary. However, a string of trades in the summer of 2019 made it clear management no longer felt that way. First came with maatta for kahun. A LHD who could help NOW. All the theories that the hawks would take byram at the draft began to disappear. Maybe it would be turcotte? Nope. Instead it’s Dach. Then, de haan is picked up for pennies from Carolina. Shaw returns for an absolute fortune. Then, the worst of the worst, jokiharju is traded for (Alex) nylander. Every trade, every move, every pick, stands as a direct antithesis to the previous offseason. The front office makes it abundantly clear they will no longer think about the future and instead maximize the window they think they still have. Picks were given up, younger players given up, picks made in the draft that would be ready now but not be the best down the road. As a result of this first part, it would then affect the second part.

That second part would be the fans. Given the way last season finished, as well as how the offseason went, fans were given a completely newer message than the one in 2018. Back then, many fans knew that things would take time. The picks made were a year plus from being ready. The firing of Q was even worse. However, somehow, the offense awoke and the team finished very strong. Fans became encouraged. All of a sudden, moves and picks were made that told fans the team would instead press on as a contender (or pretender) instead of a rebuilder. As a result, fans began begging for moves that would take advantage of top prospects. If we traded jokiharju, why can’t we trade beaudin? Don’t forget, as soon as 3 months ago, many fans suggested trading Ian Mitchell for immediate help.

This is why fans are suggesting this. We we’ve genuinely convinced ourselves that we can be contenders for the next five years. I definitely don’t think we can for at least another three years, but the front office obviously won’t admit something like that. We’ve become impatient as fans. We’ve forgotten that sometimes a stronger means suffering for a few years. The front office traded jokiharju for a bust and now it is considered acceptable for us to just ditch our good prospects. I’ve been asking this for months, but what is the direction of this franchise? Do we really think we can be contenders? Or are we just pretending to keep fan interest?
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2020
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2021
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2022
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
25$81,500,000$69,196,686$0$7,665,000$12,303,314
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C
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C, RW
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RW
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$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$2,500,000$2M)
C, RW
RFA - 3
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$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
RW, LW
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$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$2,475,000$2M)
C
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Feb. 4, 2020 at 3:57 p.m.
#1
KFTW
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Say u have pick 12-14. Do u trade it plus Beaudin to move into the top 8? Means guaranteeing one of Rossi, Perfetti, Holtz, Lundell, Raymond
Feb. 4, 2020 at 4:01 p.m.
#2
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Quoting: csick
Say u have pick 12-14. Do u trade it plus Beaudin to move into the top 8? Means guaranteeing one of Rossi, Perfetti, Holtz, Lundell, Raymond


Honestly, just from my prospective, given how deep the draft is suppose to be, I don’t think so. I do really like beaudin, and I think you can find someone special in the 12-14 spot.
Feb. 4, 2020 at 4:04 p.m.
#3
44 Foundation
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Great analysis and I agree with most of it. The Nylander trade was done because the Hawks realized they found a late gem in Jokihauru and wanted to move him before a potential drop in value like we've seen this season. Nylander has shown flashes of promise and he's still young so don't count him out yet. I think the front office is looking for size as seen by the drafting of Dach, the trade for Nylander, Maatta, Smith, and even Shaw who even though is small plays like a giant. Turcotte has got a ways to go in terms of development and there were some concerns that his stats were inflated due to the fact he was playing alongside such elite talent.
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Feb. 4, 2020 at 4:16 p.m.
#4
exo2769
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Good thoughts. I hope this post doesn't get moved to forums...

The team is NEVER going to say were tanking. They can't. The NHL would tear them to shreds. Not even the Kings or Sens or anyone comes out and says were tanking. We read between the lines.

Two years go when Stan got Brandon Manning...he didn't have any cap to work with. He went out and sold that Manning was going to be the guy. No one bought it. He was traded.

We can't defend Nylander for Joki. Want to state that 1st and foremost. That move alone doesn't break the other 5 or 6 moves I liked. Stan made ALOT of good moves. I stand by Kublaik for the 5th. I stand by Lehner's 1 year $5M deal. I stand by DeHaan for chump change even though he got hurt. I stand by getting Regula especially because Perlini still has zero goals for the season. I stand by Zack Smith for Anisimov. Yes, the Hawks PK is REALLY good. I stand by Slater for Rutta. I stand by Drake for Manning. etc...

So back to the point. Where is this team. I don't think the Toews/Kane window officially closes in the next 6-12 months. I'd wait for Feb ~20th (unless an insane offer came) and let the team play their way in...or play their way out. Put the accountability on the players. It's 1,000% in their hands. I wouldn't be a big buyer...regardless. They're not cup contenders. BUT I can hear an argument that it's good to get the youngs guys playoff experience AND anything can happen with a hot goalie in the playoffs. BUT if they're even 1 point out of it. SELL SELL SELL. We're not getting a discount from Lehner which I'm fine with. I don't blame him. Just keep us in mind next summer. Our team should be getting better year after year considering how our young guys are playing.
Feb. 4, 2020 at 4:17 p.m.
#5
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Quoting: WhatNowDiscussion
Great analysis and I agree with most of it. The Nylander trade was done because the Hawks realized they found a late gem in Jokihauru and wanted to move him before a potential drop in value like we've seen this season. Nylander has shown flashes of promise and he's still young so don't count him out yet. I think the front office is looking for size as seen by the drafting of Dach, the trade for Nylander, Maatta, Smith, and even Shaw who even though is small plays like a giant. Turcotte has got a ways to go in terms of development and there were some concerns that his stats were inflated due to the fact he was playing alongside such elite talent.


Agree with your analysis for the most part. However, I will admit, the nylander trade just doesn’t make sense still to me. If joker was regarded as a late gem, we could have gotten plenty more for him I believe. As for Dach and the trades, I get that size was a primary factor and motivation, but there are some exceptions. Dach might be big and can take a hit, but he doesn’t know how to hit, period. Maatta was always a quick fix on defense to me, Smith was definitely a grinder and bigger body as you said, and Shaw was just tough. I would just say that Shaw was way too big a price to pay though.

Overall though, you’re right, getting bigger and tougher was a motive last summer. However, I don’t see us really throwing many hits this year, and if anything we have more injuries this year as well. Dach, strome, maatta, Saad, Shaw, de haan, seabrook. All bigger bodies that have gotten injured. So, with all due respect, have we been much tougher?

As for Turcotte, I’ll offer this analysis. Keep in mind turcotte was playing for stacked USNTDP. However, don’t forget where the USNTDP plays: the USHL. Now, unless last year was an anomaly, the USNTDP is usually very low on the standings in the USHL. So while the team was stacked, they are in a very competitive league. He still had to make his way in that league just like the others. That’s all I’d say.
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Feb. 4, 2020 at 4:26 p.m.
#6
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Quoting: exo2769
Good thoughts. I hope this post doesn't get moved to forums...

The team is NEVER going to say were tanking. They can't. The NHL would tear them to shreds. Not even the Kings or Sens or anyone comes out and says were tanking. We read between the lines.

Two years go when Stan got Brandon Manning...he didn't have any cap to work with. He went out and sold that Manning was going to be the guy. No one bought it. He was traded.

We can't defend Nylander for Joki. Want to state that 1st and foremost. That move alone doesn't break the other 5 or 6 moves I liked. Stan made ALOT of good moves. I stand by Kublaik for the 5th. I stand by Lehner's 1 year $5M deal. I stand by DeHaan for chump change even though he got hurt. I stand by getting Regula especially because Perlini still has zero goals for the season. I stand by Zack Smith for Anisimov. Yes, the Hawks PK is REALLY good. I stand by Slater for Rutta. I stand by Drake for Manning. etc...

So back to the point. Where is this team. I don't think the Toews/Kane window officially closes in the next 6-12 months. I'd wait for Feb ~20th (unless an insane offer came) and let the team play their way in...or play their way out. Put the accountability on the players. It's 1,000% in their hands. I wouldn't be a big buyer...regardless. They're not cup contenders. BUT I can hear an argument that it's good to get the youngs guys playoff experience AND anything can happen with a hot goalie in the playoffs. BUT if they're even 1 point out of it. SELL SELL SELL. We're not getting a discount from Lehner which I'm fine with. I don't blame him. Just keep us in mind next summer. Our team should be getting better year after year considering how our young guys are playing.


I’ll say this, some of those moves he made were very good. Kubalik, lehner, and de haan were good moves for the their time (and kubalik and lehner are still good). De haan, though, feels like it was high risk, which turned out to be true. Thank it only cost pennies. However, we know the joker trade is indefensible, the Shaw trade was a HUGE overpayment, and the regula trade, while perlini sucked, was a little unusual. Reason being, stevie Y is a god amongst men. If he Willy nilly gave up regula, I’ll admit I was confused. However, don’t get me wrong, love his production and his size.

As for the team, if they are out of the playoffs by feb. 20th, I wholeheartedly endorse your approach exo. Selling what we can for good future assets. However, under no circumstances should we buy. We are not anywhere near that good! So we agree there as well.
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Feb. 4, 2020 at 4:31 p.m.
#7
exo2769
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Quoting: HatterTParty
I’ll say this, some of those moves he made were very good. Kubalik, lehner, and de haan were good moves for the their time (and kubalik and lehner are still good). De haan, though, feels like it was high risk, which turned out to be true. Thank it only cost pennies. However, we know the joker trade is indefensible, the Shaw trade was a HUGE overpayment, and the regula trade, while perlini sucked, was a little unusual. Reason being, stevie Y is a god amongst men. If he Willy nilly gave up regula, I’ll admit I was confused. However, don’t get me wrong, love his production and his size.

As for the team, if they are out of the playoffs by feb. 20th, I wholeheartedly endorse your approach exo. Selling what we can for good future assets. However, under no circumstances should we buy. We are not anywhere near that good! So we agree there as well.


Shaw trade is also 20/20 in hindsight, right? If he was still playing we might have a different outlook. The goal was to get tougher. Stan did that. The price seems high right now, I agree. Stan needs to ask Shaw what his plans are and I couldn't fault him if he said...I'm hanging them up. Concussions are no joke. Happy for the guy if he does.
Feb. 4, 2020 at 4:38 p.m.
#8
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Quoting: exo2769
Shaw trade is also 20/20 in hindsight, right? If he was still playing we might have a different outlook. The goal was to get tougher. Stan did that. The price seems high right now, I agree. Stan needs to ask Shaw was his plans are and I couldn't fault him if he said...I'm hanging them up. Concussions are no joke. Happy for the guy if he does.


Definitely no question on concussions. No joke whatsoever, and i hope he hangs em up. He’s had a great career. However, I really, really can’t find myself ever justifying that price tag. It was tough. 2nd, 3rd, and 7th?!

However, u did bring up the idea of getting tougher. Here’s my problem, and granted I’ll be repeating an earlier response. While that was a motive last summer, have we shown ourselves to be tougher? Dach doesn’t hit, for one. The others we acquired can hit, but toughness might be harder to define or even defend. This about it, Dach, Shaw, de haan, maatta, strome, Saad, seabrook, even Murphy and Caggiula, all of them have been injured this year. Did we really tougher, or did we just get slightly bigger?
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Feb. 4, 2020 at 4:53 p.m.
#9
exo2769
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Quoting: HatterTParty
Definitely no question on concussions. No joke whatsoever, and i hope he hangs em up. He’s had a great career. However, I really, really can’t find myself ever justifying that price tag. It was tough. 2nd, 3rd, and 7th?!

However, u did bring up the idea of getting tougher. Here’s my problem, and granted I’ll be repeating an earlier response. While that was a motive last summer, have we shown ourselves to be tougher? Dach doesn’t hit, for one. The others we acquired can hit, but toughness might be harder to define or even defend. This about it, Dach, Shaw, de haan, maatta, strome, Saad, seabrook, even Murphy and Caggiula, all of them have been injured this year. Did we really tougher, or did we just get slightly bigger?


Let's look at the stats. EVEN with DeHaan and Shaw out...we're FAR tougher. Last year the Hawks had 1,350 hits...for the season...lowest in the entire NHL. This year they have 1,233 to date. DeHaan, Shaw, Carpy, Smith, Maatta (all recently required) would have ranked either 2nd...or 1st in hits if they were on the team last year. I'm not saying hits are the ONLY metric for toughness...if you're hitting someone you don't have the puck theoretically, but they are overall tougher, but it is 1 metric. Dach's still young. I don't mind him not laying anyone out yet. BUT it's nice to NOT be a pushover.


https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/CHI/2019.html
Feb. 4, 2020 at 6:20 p.m.
#10
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Quoting: exo2769
Let's look at the stats. EVEN with DeHaan and Shaw out...we're FAR tougher. Last year the Hawks had 1,350 hits...for the season...lowest in the entire NHL. This year they have 1,233 to date. DeHaan, Shaw, Carpy, Smith, Maatta (all recently required) would have ranked either 2nd...or 1st in hits if they were on the team last year. I'm not saying hits are the ONLY metric for toughness...if you're hitting someone you don't have the puck theoretically, but they are overall tougher, but it is 1 metric. Dach's still young. I don't mind him not laying anyone out yet. BUT it's nice to NOT be a pushover.


https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/CHI/2019.html


The hits definitely speak for themselves. Plenty more hits are being thrown and that’s not bad. However, how do we explain the injuries? Are the hits worth it if the ones throwing them can’t take one?
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