Quoting: A_K
Here's some:
"Teams don’t spend first-round picks at the deadline like they’re candy anymore. But here’s what I do know so far: Eight teams have informed the Rangers they’ve got Kreider at the top of their wish list. And the Rangers are looking for at least the return they got on Kevin Hayes a year ago at the deadline. The Jets gave up a first-round pick and winger Brendan Lemieux for renting out pending UFA Hayes. Now, Hayes is a centre, Kreider is a winger. But Kreider currently is the top of the rental class."
"So here I’ve put on my matchmaker hat. Based on some plausible scenarios, here’s a six-pack of trades that would make sense from my perspective.... New York Rangers trade Chris Kreider to the St. Louis Blues in exchange for a 2020 first-round pick and RW Jordan Kyrou. (Rangers retain 50 percent..."
He admits that Hayes being a center would raise his rental value vs if he was a winger; the part that bothers me is that he says "Kreider is the top of the rental class", and then proceeds to come up with a value that is unprecedented in any recent rental trade. I understand there is /some/ supply-demand effect, but just because the rental market is weak this deadline doesn't mean that the bidding war will force a team to lose their best prospect and unconditional first rounder. If you're a GM and you pay for what's out there on a scale relative to the market instead of a scale relative to the value added to your team, you're gonna have a bad time.
Thanks. its pretty much as I expected.
I actually don't disagree with what he said, although I still wouldn't do the trade from a STL POV. Remember, he's literally stating that multiple teams have put him at the top of their lists meaning he's the player they are
most willing to start a bidding war over if they want to. Based on those parameters.
As for the actual value, I think you are using the terminology unconditional as if it holds much value when the Blues are near the top of the league and considered to be the favorite for the cup again. That pick based on chances of winning the cup this year will be anywhere from 28th-31st. Last year's pick for the Hayes deal ended up being 20th overall. That's a huge difference considering what we know about how much it costs to move up in the draft, once again just looking at it from that point of view.
When it comes to prospects, its anyone's guess, so its basically preference at that point. Some people value some prospects higher than others. No wrong or right answers there, only difference of opinions.
One last thing, he is also saying that the Rangers retain 50% of the cap hit. NYR did not retain anything on the Hayes deal. So while the fact that Hayes is a C and Kreider is true, there are other factors that can be said make up for the difference.
Once again not saying STL should do it. I personally would just run with the current team they have unless a bargain bin pickup comes up. But I think people are getting a little over annoyed over something that isn't even that far off based on the facts we know about other teams. Whether STL accepts the proposed Lebrun offer is completely up to them but that is the offer to accept or not.