Realistic Opening Night- No NTC waived

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Created by: ek_65

Team: 2020-21 Tampa Bay Lightning

Initial Creation Date: Feb. 9, 2020

Published: Feb. 9, 2020

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

Tampa's NTC are coming back to haunt them next season. Cap is only supposed to go up around $1M and they have Cirelli and Sergachev waiting to get paid. Doubt any guy would want to waive it considering they're playing in Florida and are a legitimate cup contender. Tampa probably wishes they could make the Gourde contract disappear but looks like Killorn's M-NTC kicks in next year and he will have to go.

- Killorn and Sergachev to MTL. Tampa gets Armia at 50% retained, making a very valuable middle 6 righty who can produce, and play special teams. Mete for for Sergachev is an obvious downgrade but would be impossible to work for a similar player within cap. Mete is the same age, and may not have the same upside as Sergachev but will be a solid Top 4D at a much lesser cap hit (signed to 2 year bridge). You could add more picks from MTL but I think the two 2nds are fair (MTL won't give up 2020 1st rounder at their host draft). Maybe add 2021 1st. Killorn definitley improves their top 6 and they get Sergachev back in the org with Weber.

- Cirelli would defintley be a prime offer sheet canidate without these moves, but remember Florida is a tax free state so a $4.75 x2 bridge is a nice deal for both sides (they managed to get Point at 6.75 x3). Can see him loading up 2nd year salary for a nice QO.

- Paquette and McEihlney aren't bad deals but the cap is just to tight, they'd need to find players in similar roles at >$1M.

Tampa should uses their surplus of top 2 round draft picks, and trade up into this years draft. Get some forwards who could provide some impact and cap relief playing on their entry level in the next couple of years.

They fit under the $82.5M cap by just $24k, let me know your thoughts about this roster.

Free Agent Signings

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Cirelli, Anthony	2	$4,750,000
Volkov, Alexander	1	$1,000,000
Cernak, Erik	1	$1,500,000
Mete, Victor	2	$2,500,000
Stephens, Mitchell	1	$700,000
Joseph, Mathieu	1	$850,000

UFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Spezza, Jason	1	$700,000
Anderson, Craig	1	$750,000
Schenn, Luke	1	$700,000

Trades

TBL

2021 4th round pick (ANA)

ANA

Paquette, Cédric

Additional Details:

any team

TBL

Armia, Joel ($1,300,000 retained)
Mete, Victor [RFA Rights]
2020 2nd round pick (MTL)
2020 2nd round pick (CHI)

Additional Details:

maybe more?

MTL

Killorn, Alex
Sergachev, Mikhail [RFA Rights]

TBL

2022 5th round pick (NJD)

NJD

McElhinney, Curtis

Additional Details:

any team

Buyouts

Vincent Lecavalier: $0

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2020
2021
2022

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
22	$82,500,000	$82,475,924	$0	$500,000	$24,076

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Palat, Ondrej $5,300,000$5,300,000 LW, RW NTC UFA - 2	Stamkos, Steven $8,500,000$8,500,000 LW, C NMC UFA - 4	Kucherov, Nikita $9,500,000$9,500,000 RW NMC UFA - 7
Johnson, Tyler $5,000,000$5,000,000 RW, C, LW NTC UFA - 4	Cirelli, Anthony $4,750,000$4,750,000 C, LW UFA - 3	Point, Brayden $6,750,000$6,750,000 C, RW UFA - 2
Gourde, Yanni $5,166,666$5,166,666 C, LW, RW NTC UFA - 5	Barré-Boulet, Alex $759,258$759,258 RW, LW UFA - 1	Armia, Joel $1,300,000$1,300,000 RW, LW UFA - 1
	Spezza, Jason $700,000$700,000 C, RW UFA - 1	Volkov, Alexander $1,000,000$1,000,000 LW, RW UFA - 1
Joseph, Mathieu $850,000$850,000 LW, RW UFA - 2	Stephens, Mitchell $700,000$700,000 C UFA - 2

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Hedman, Victor $7,875,000$7,875,000 LD NMC UFA - 5	McDonagh, Ryan $6,750,000$6,750,000 LD NTC UFA - 6	Vasilevskiy, Andrei $9,500,000$9,500,000 G UFA - 8
Coburn, Braydon $1,700,000$1,700,000 LD NTC UFA - 1	Mete, Victor $2,500,000$2,500,000 LD/RD UFA - 1
Foote, Cal $925,000$925,000 ($500,000$500K) RD RFA - 1	Cernak, Erik $1,500,000$1,500,000 RD UFA - 3	Anderson, Craig $750,000$750,000 G UFA - 1
Schenn, Luke $700,000$700,000 RD UFA - 1

Feb. 9, 2020 at 2:39 p.m.

Comrade

Joined: Feb. 2019

Posts: 140

Likes: 32

Maybe a trade including Nate Thompson and Paquette? Bolts get a cheap replacement and Habs take a younger and local flavor.

Feb. 9, 2020 at 2:43 p.m.

ek_65

Thread Starter

Joined: Sep. 2019

Posts: 211

Likes: 45

Quoting: sala91

Maybe a trade including Nate Thompson and Paquette? Bolts get a cheap replacement and Habs take a younger and local flavor.

Thompson is a UFA, so Tampa could definitely target him in the off-season.

Feb. 9, 2020 at 3:13 p.m.

Trickster

hey look a squirrel

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 6,047

Likes: 3,752

Czernak will get offer sheeted, I'd easily say double his salary you proposed.

Dont see Montreal moving Mete.

I think sad truth is that Tampa will to move guys with NTC and using assets to make them attractive.

oneX liked this.

Feb. 9, 2020 at 3:29 p.m.

oneX

Joined: Mar. 2019

Posts: 2,770

Likes: 2,619

Quoting: Trickster

Yeah I don't get why any player on the Tampa roster (with a NMC or NTC) would accept any trade. I'd be pissed getting traded off a good team (with Stanley cup aspirations) to any team. That's just the game aspect of not wanting to leave.

The financial aspect is just as maddening because these players signed there to enjoy the no tax benefits of playing in Tampa.

Trickster and ek_65 liked this.

Feb. 9, 2020 at 3:29 p.m.

ek_65

Thread Starter

Joined: Sep. 2019

Posts: 211

Likes: 45

Quoting: Trickster

Wouldn't move Mete for Sergachev?

Feb. 9, 2020 at 3:34 p.m.

Trickster

hey look a squirrel

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 6,047

Likes: 3,752

Quoting: ek_65

Wouldn't move Mete for Sergachev?

That's not what I said.
I said that I dont see Montreal moving Mete.
I think the lesson has been learned from trading D man away, like Sergachev.

ek_65 liked this.

Feb. 9, 2020 at 6:32 p.m.

Habs_Hfx10

Joined: Jan. 2020

Posts: 441

Likes: 159

Berge really didn’t want to move Sergachev but we needed to upgrade up front. Tampa could very easily be an offer sheet target given the space they have and the players they need to sign. Not sure If Sergachev would sign it or not but I’d love to make him an offer.

Feb. 10, 2020 at 5:45 a.m.

I_Know_Nothing_About_Hockey_Or_Any_Sport2

Joined: May 2017

Posts: 517

Likes: 214

Unless something has been confirmed about the cap next year and I missed it, I would say that's a very low estimate. If the cap goes up by $1m more than you're projecting, and we don't do whatever that horrid Montreal trade is, then we have almost $5m to sign Sergachev, which we would almost definitely do. Cernak probably gets more than that, but honestly, just don't keep an extra defenseman on the roster and give that salary to Cernak and that's probably enough. The Cirelli deal also isn't that great for us. He brings defensive responsibility to the team beyond anything else, and that's what pays least in the League. Long-term, $4.75 is an underpayment, but for a bridge, it's probably a bit more than what the organization is hoping.

The difficult part of this is that the Lightning want to keep Killorn too given the season he's having. And I'm sure they want to get rid of Gourde, Johnson, or Palat (and probably mainly Gourde if he never scores again) instead. But if we have to move Killorn, we'd get a decent return and we'd more than likely be able to re-sign everyone else (other than Shattenkirk).

Zwui21 liked this.

Feb. 10, 2020 at 6:04 a.m.

Zwui21

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 1,304

Likes: 538

Ahh, the good old post underestimating Lightning abilities to manage the cap space. Every season it's "you guys are screwed this offseason lol, so we are gonna take your players for half the price" and every single time the Bolts front office is able to work something out.

Feb. 10, 2020 at 11:46 a.m.

#10

ek_65

Thread Starter

Joined: Sep. 2019

Posts: 211

Likes: 45

Quoting: I_Know_Nothing_About_Hockey_Or_Any_Sport2

Lebrun in December mentioned between $82.5M and $83.5M, either way, its a very slight increase. I do think Cirelli and Sergachev would be prime offer-sheet candidates because of how tight-strapped Tampa is. No way they want to move Killorn but he is the only guy without a full NTC, and I doubt anyone would want to waive it. Can see how MTL deal is an underpayment, and that's why I suggested add more, they still get similar role players with less cap hit but an obvious less skill and upside. Cirelli contract will be a different one to gauge, just because of how much he's progressed in the last 5 years of his career many think he could turn into an absolute stud. Because of this, I don't think he'll want to sign long term, so a $4-5M 2-3 year bridge seems appropriate.

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