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Using the Zucker trade to guess the next move

Created by: JayTea
Team: 2019-20 Minnesota Wild
Initial Creation Date: Feb. 12, 2020
Published: Feb. 12, 2020
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Per LeBrun and Russo, the Canes have been kicking the tires on Matt Dumba and are willing to part with a 1st round pick since they have 2. Russo has said 2 of the key pieces to a Dumba trade from Guerin's perspective is a 1st round pick and a center coming back. The Canes have both to offer, as well as an expiring contract roster player to keep the Wild in it this year.

I know no one reads this far in the description, but there probably would be other pieces involved but the base of the trade would be the trade suggested below.
Trades
MIN
  1. Suzuki, Ryan
  2. van Riemsdyk, Trevor
  3. 2020 1st round pick (CAR)
Additional Details:
The pick would be whichever is the earlier of the two picks, top 10 protected. If the earlier pick ends up a top 10, Canes can either send over their 2021 unprotected or their later 2020 pick.
Buyouts
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2020
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Logo of the PIT
Logo of the CAR
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Logo of the MIN
2021
Logo of the MIN
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Logo of the MIN
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the MIN
2022
Logo of the MIN
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
22$81,500,000$67,628,591$0$1,100,000$13,871,409
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$7,538,462$7,538,462
LW
NMC
UFA - 6
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$1,625,000$1,625,000
C
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$3,000,000$3,000,000
RW, LW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$4,900,000$4,900,000
LW, C, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$600,000$600K)
RW, C
RFA - 1
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$6,000,000$6,000,000
RW, LW
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$2,875,000$2,875,000
RW, LW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$1,487,500$1,487,500
C
UFA - 2
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$916,666$916,666 (Performance Bonus$500,000$500K)
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$1,900,000$1,900,000
LW, C, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$5,500,000$5,500,000
C
NMC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$1,900,000$1,900,000
C, RW
UFA - 2
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
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$7,538,462$7,538,462
LD
NMC
UFA - 6
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$5,187,500$5,187,500
RD
NMC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$2,166,667$2,166,667
G
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$4,166,667$4,166,667
LD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$750,000$750,000
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$785,000$785,000
G
UFA - 3
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$700,000$700,000
LD/RD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$2,300,000$2,300,000
RD
UFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$2,250,000$2,250,000
RD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$2,000,000$2,000,000
C
UFA - 3

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Feb. 12, 2020 at 8:11 a.m.
#1
14m in dead cap
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Feb. 12, 2020 at 8:18 a.m.
#2
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The Leafs pick is top 10 protected so this would have a few conditions attached on that as well.
Just wanted to throw that in smile
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Feb. 12, 2020 at 8:22 a.m.
#3
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Does it have to be Suzuki? Is he the only one that moves the needle for MIN?
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Feb. 12, 2020 at 8:23 a.m.
#4
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Quoting: I4evrblue
The Leafs pick is top 10 protected so this would have a few conditions attached on that as well.
Just wanted to throw that in smile


In the unlikely scenario that the Leafs' pick slips to a top 10 pick and they send over their 2021 to the Canes, then it would automatically be the Canes 2020 unless somehow that too slips to a top 10 pick. In that case, Minnesota gets Carolina's 2021 pick unprotected.
Feb. 12, 2020 at 8:24 a.m.
#5
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Quoting: TWOminutes4surging
Does it have to be Suzuki? Is he the only one that moves the needle for MIN?


I think so, unless there's another center who projects to be a top 6 player. Obviously Necas would do it, but that's a no from Carolina because he's more of a sure thing and they need him right now. smile
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Feb. 12, 2020 at 8:25 a.m.
#6
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Canes would have to make another move to make it work for them.
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Feb. 12, 2020 at 8:26 a.m.
#7
Hurricane Waddell
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I think that conditions need to be on the 1st, and I also have concerns that Dumba isn’t what the Canes really need. He has negative Corsi, xG, and xGD/60 numbers which might indicate a fit problem in our system. I do also realize the MIN results so far can have something to do with that.

I’d hate to see us give up a 1st, a serviceable D, and arguably our best prospect for a guy who might not fit.

I continue to think Brodin is the better fit, but this package is too much for him too.
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Feb. 12, 2020 at 8:29 a.m.
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Is Carolina really interested in Dumba? They are pretty set on the D side of things I get Hamilton is out but wouldn't a rental interest them more and most definitely cost less. This sounds more like Carolina has what Minny wants and with Hamilton out they could make good trading partners but again beyond the next 30 games does Carolina really chose Dumba over Pesce and Hamilton?
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Feb. 12, 2020 at 8:29 a.m.
#9
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Hate to be that guy but peep dat new profile pick wink
Feb. 12, 2020 at 8:30 a.m.
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Quoting: Weezley
Canes would have to make another move to make it work for them.


Anything that can be done to the deal to include that move?
Feb. 12, 2020 at 8:32 a.m.
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Quoting: Boomer125
Is Carolina really interested in Dumba? They are pretty set on the D side of things I get Hamilton is out but wouldn't a rental interest them more and most definitely cost less. This sounds more like Carolina has what Minny wants and with Hamilton out they could make good trading partners but again beyond the next 30 games does Carolina really chose Dumba over Pesce and Hamilton?


Apparently they are. I found it odd they were looking into acquiring another dman earlier in the year considering who they have, but maybe they'd move out a guy if they brought in a player they wanted. I guess it's similar to the Blues acquiring Faulk when they already had Pietrangelo and Parayko.
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Feb. 12, 2020 at 8:33 a.m.
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Quoting: Caniac555
I think that conditions need to be on the 1st, and I also have concerns that Dumba isn’t what the Canes really need. He has negative Corsi, xG, and xGD/60 numbers which might indicate a fit problem in our system. I do also realize the MIN results so far can have something to do with that.

I’d hate to see us give up a 1st, a serviceable D, and arguably our best prospect for a guy who might not fit.

I continue to think Brodin is the better fit, but this package is too much for him too.


It sounds like Guerin is looking for a similar package for Brodin, who has less term but has a smaller cap hit and clearly has been the better player this season. It's a lot to give up, but that's also why I said this would be the base and other pieces could be involved. What else do the Canes need?
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Feb. 12, 2020 at 8:36 a.m.
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Quoting: JayTea
Apparently they are. I found it odd they were looking into acquiring another dman earlier in the year considering who they have, but maybe they'd move out a guy if they brought in a player they wanted. I guess it's similar to the Blues acquiring Faulk when they already had Pietrangelo and Parayko.


I absolutely believe they have kicked tires on Dumba, I really can't see them sending the package Minny wants for Dumba just to Basically downgrade their Top 2 RHD or have a Top 4 player on the bottom pair, but I've been so so wrong before
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Feb. 12, 2020 at 8:37 a.m.
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Geekie is a better fit for Minnesota no? He's right handed and projects to be a 2C. He's also closer to being NHL ready than Suzuki. Alternatively, there's Mattheo, who's been grat, right handed centre. His projection is middle six, so 2nd/3rd line.
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Feb. 12, 2020 at 8:41 a.m.
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Quoting: Boomer125
I absolutely believe they have kicked tires on Dumba, I really can't see them sending the package Minny wants for Dumba just to Basically downgrade their Top 2 RHD or have a Top 4 player on the bottom pair, but I've been so so wrong before


Yeah, tbh I don't think I'd do this if I were the Canes but maybe Hamilton doesn't fit into their long term plans and they'll look to trade him this summer since he only has a year left and might cost too much to keep? According to LeBrun, they're not interested in a rental and want to make a hockey trade so who knows. Just fun to discuss what might work for both teams I guess.
Feb. 12, 2020 at 8:41 a.m.
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Quoting: JayTea
It sounds like Guerin is looking for a similar package for Brodin, who has less term but has a smaller cap hit and clearly has been the better player this season. It's a lot to give up, but that's also why I said this would be the base and other pieces could be involved. What else do the Canes need?


Good point. I’ve been looking to see what team could give Min what they want and Carolina was one but I took them off the list bc of what they already have at the RD. Montreal was another but they were so starved for a centre I don’t see them giving up one for Dumba.
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Feb. 12, 2020 at 8:49 a.m.
#17
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Quoting: Caniac2000
Geekie is a better fit for Minnesota no? He's right handed and projects to be a 2C. He's also closer to being NHL ready than Suzuki. Alternatively, there's Mattheo, who's been grat, right handed centre. His projection is middle six, so 2nd/3rd line.


Geekie could be an option, guess it depends on both teams desire to compete faster if he's closer to being NHL ready. Canes are coming off an ECF appearance and might be eager to build off of that now, while the Wild likely would want to compete while Parise and Suter are still able to contribute. Guessing Guerin would want the guy with the higher ceiling though.
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Feb. 12, 2020 at 8:51 a.m.
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Quoting: Weezley
Good point. I’ve been looking to see what team could give Min what they want and Carolina was one but I took them off the list bc of what they already have at the RD. Montreal was another but they were so starved for a centre I don’t see them giving up one for Dumba.


Florida might be an option for Brodin. They're looking for a LHD to pair with Ekblad and have some center prospects that look like they might interest the Wild.
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Feb. 12, 2020 at 8:52 a.m.
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Quoting: JayTea
Geekie could be an option, guess it depends on both teams desire to compete faster if he's closer to being NHL ready. Canes are coming off an ECF appearance and might be eager to build off of that now, while the Wild likely would want to compete while Parise and Suter are still able to contribute. Guessing Guerin would want the guy with the higher ceiling though.


Suzuki and eekie have very similar ceilings, so in that respect, it's moot. Geekie is just right handed and closer to being ready.
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Feb. 12, 2020 at 8:55 a.m.
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Quoting: Caniac2000
Suzuki and eekie have very similar ceilings, so in that respect, it's moot. Geekie is just right handed and closer to being ready.


Ah, misunderstood. He may be the guy they'd want then, sounds like the Canes could probably afford to spare 1 center prospect if they have 2-3 guys in the system with Aho already signed long term and Necas in the NHL already. Think they'd trade Hamilton this summer assuming he's healthy in time if they brought in Dumba? That's the only reason I'd think they'd do it.
Feb. 12, 2020 at 9:03 a.m.
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@JayTea what is your take on Dumba’s defensive game?

I found it interesting that when looking at defensive pairing data over at Charting Hockey that MINs worst pairing from an xG differential was Suter-Dumba (they also had a low TOI together so smaller sample).
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Feb. 12, 2020 at 9:06 a.m.
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Hurricane Waddell
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There is zero chance Dougie is traded. He was on pace to be a Norris candidate and was probably the most valuable single player in our lineup this year.

Quoting: JayTea
Think they'd trade Hamilton this summer assuming he's healthy in time if they brought in Dumba? That's the only reason I'd think they'd do it.
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Feb. 12, 2020 at 9:08 a.m.
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Quoting: Caniac555
@JayTea what is your take on Dumba’s defensive game?

I found it interesting that when looking at defensive pairing data over at Charting Hockey that MINs worst pairing from an xG differential was Suter-Dumba (they also had a low TOI together so smaller sample).


Sometimes Dumba pushes too much to help create offense and ends up out of position, which forces his partner to cover for him. Imo Suter isn't a good enough skater to cover for that at this stage in his career, so defensively Dumba has worked pretty well with Brodin since he's a strong skater.
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Feb. 12, 2020 at 9:11 a.m.
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Quoting: Caniac2000
Suzuki and eekie have very similar ceilings, so in that respect, it's moot. Geekie is just right handed and closer to being ready.


What about Jack Drury and Jake Bean? Are they B+ prospects or better?
Feb. 12, 2020 at 9:16 a.m.
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Quoting: csick
What about Jack Drury and Jake Bean? Are they B+ prospects or better?


Bean is a bluechip, he's been the best D man in the AHL this year. Drury is a A- prospect
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