Edited Feb. 26, 2020 at 6:15 p.m.
Quoting: pharrow
Yeah I have been hoping Carolina sneaks in to play the penguins becasue Philly and the penguins don't like each other. Last year they hurt Letang right before the playoffs in a dirty scrum by putting him in a headlock, he has neck issues from a previous herniation.
They aren't as bad this year, much like CBJ isn't but still you can expect it in that match up. Some of those stats though TOR as a 5% chance to win a cup but WSH is a 3% chance. I mean if I was betting money on one team making it there over the other it would be WSH.
I also would say COL has a better chance at winning a cup than the penguins.
A lot of it in the end is who gets hot, especially in net. Which is why I don't put much faith in any of these stats. They had the penguins and TB as cup favorites last year. They both fell apart.
If I had to pick 4 teams with the best chance it's BOS, WSH, AVs, STL.
Those are the 4 I think are the most dangerous. But we'll see. I think this really underestimates WSH. They are not a team that likes to lose. I think they are a dirty team they will do whatever it takes to win, but I do give them credit as they can win games.
You don't understand this, it's math--->it's never wrong in the long run:
Washington has really low % to win the whole thing, because they have the hardest path to victory. It's simple as that. When u you have possible 4 insane opponent. Vs like Toronto can have 3 insane + 1 easy.
Look at where it deviates the 2 teams:
Conf-Finals--->Finals
21% vs 6% for Washington
14% vs 8% for Toronto
Meaning if they upset 2 teams, they most likely win the 3rd one, because at that point you have to admint, that they beat 2 solid top teams... so if they beat 2 solid teams, why they can't beat the 3rd who is possible weaker, than those 2. In theory Bos+TBL = the strongest this year, as the results shows...
You can say whatever you want, but under Keefe Toronto has really good record in the NHL.... the media is deceiving.
1 loss = end of the world for whole Canada nation...
In reality: Caps struggling for a while... they started hot... then they played bad for a while.. otherwise they would have been leading the whole NHL. Their fans i read it everyday - they say - fire the coach: Reirden. "FIRE HIM" - they chant
Yes i know they are good playoffs team on paper... but if Holtby starts in all games: posts .900 SV% ---> they lose to all teams---> physical play doesn't matter then...
Holtby needs to be again "old holtby" or start the new super goalie "Samsonov" - who puts up good numbers ---> can be new "vasilevsky"
Back to Toronto.
I know they just lost to a Zamboni driver, who works for them. Haha
Before that who they destroyed by perfect play in every 60 min(rare in the nhl-they were truly awesome in that match)? Your Penguins
After that who they beat with solid play?(we played better, but they still won- a win is a win) My TBL
One last thing: Colorado is hopeless ---> too much injuries ---> Sakic saw that --> No All-in --> best gm in the league.
If MacKinnon doesn't carry they go out in like round2...
They have goalie injuries(on top of all the other injuries all the time) and non-top tier goalies anyways, they just signed Hutchinson, who the whole leafs fans hated like the worst person in the universe... That's the goalie they need to rely on possible, in case of more injuries. Varlamov last year = better goalie, than all those 3...
From the outside Colorado can look good, but if u see that they lose to LA ... almost twice last 2 weeks... that's not a cup winning team.
St Louis + Dallas + Vegas. I would rank these 3 other teams easily ahead of them.
As you mentioned, hot goalie is super important. However hot goalie can only can be, if u have a goalie who is capable of getting hot.
Like Fleury, like Lehner, like Vasi etc...
If you ask me about endgame:
Tampa Vs Washington
Dallas Vs Vegas
Finals:
Vs.
Stanley-Cup winner:
They just destroyed 5 top teams in the nhl... and everyone else... and they got the best goalie tandem in the whole league. + they got rid of their worst player:Eakin, who was really bad... Oh did i mention Martinez, who comes from a top-defensive mindset team? From LA? He won cup as well...
Their coach is a proven good one: Debour--> always good results in playoffs(mostly late years). They just pulled a "Berube move"--> copycat league ---> i think it will work
Unfortunately my heart will be broken once again.
But until we are not out, i'm hopeful u know... upsets possible
If you want to hear my opinion about your team: Losing to caps in round 2 --> your team had too many injuries, too much grind = worn out players when playoffs starts...(everyone needed to work 120% whole year = no rest for the body + mental fatigue will catch up). But 1st round Crosby + Malkin can carry easy
+ Marino is Makar 2.0(kinda)
Main reason for Penguins fall:No Guentzel in playoffs. With fresh Guentzel, the odds for your team = much higher. He is elite. Such a good fit for your team. I don't know where you guys found him... i always thought he is bad and only speed+lucky+ good teammates... but now i think i was dumb
Zucker can't replace him. Solid player, but that's it.
You need full team to go deep. Remember when Stammer injured couple years ago.. we missed the playoffs by 1 point... unlucky...
Remember why
won last year: They coasted for half a season = no fatigue. If St. Louis wins, that's impressive... i wouldn't bet a cent on it... However good they look. They look scary since couple games... It's still unlikely they repeat... They deserve it, if they can do it. That's for sure...