Analytics are vastly overrated and mostly dont work change my mind

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: KakkoForMauriceRichardAward

Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs

Initial Creation Date: Feb. 23, 2020

Published: Feb. 23, 2020

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Buyouts

Mikhail Grabovski: $0

Retained Salary Transactions

Phil Kessel: $1,200,000 (15%)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2020
2021
2022

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

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ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
28	$81,500,000	$95,979,643	$0	$470,000	-$14,479,643

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Johnsson, Andreas $3,400,000$3,400,000 LW, RW UFA - 4	Matthews, Auston $11,634,000$11,634,000 C UFA - 5	Marner, Mitchell $10,893,000$10,893,000 RW UFA - 6
Hyman, Zach $2,250,000$2,250,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 2	Tavares, John $11,000,000$11,000,000 C, LW NMC UFA - 6	Nylander, William $6,962,366$6,962,366 RW UFA - 5
Clifford, Kyle $800,000$800,000 LW UFA - 1	Kerfoot, Alexander $3,500,000$3,500,000 LW, C, RW UFA - 4	Horton, Nathan $5,300,000$5,300,000 RW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 1
Mikheyev, Ilya $925,000$925,000 LW, RW UFA - 1	Spezza, Jason $700,000$700,000 C, RW NTC UFA - 1	Clarkson, David $5,250,000$5,250,000 RW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 1
Engvall, Pierre $925,000$925,000 RW, LW UFA - 1	Gauthier, Frédérik $675,000$675,000 C UFA - 1	Kapanen, Kasperi $3,200,000$3,200,000 RW UFA - 3
Timashov, Dmytro $694,444$694,444 ($70,000$70K) LW UFA - 1		Malgin, Denis $750,000$750,000 LW, RW UFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Rielly, Morgan $5,000,000$5,000,000 LD UFA - 3	Ceci, Cody $4,500,000$4,500,000 RD UFA - 1	Andersen, Frederik $5,000,000$5,000,000 G M-NTC UFA - 2
Muzzin, Jake $4,000,000$4,000,000 LD UFA - 1	Barrie, Tyson $2,750,000$2,750,000 RD UFA - 1	Campbell, Jack $675,000$675,000 G UFA - 1
Sandin, Rasmus $894,167$894,167 LD UFA - 3	Liljegren, Timothy $863,333$863,333 ($400,000$400K) RD RFA - 3
Dermott, Travis $863,333$863,333 LD/RD UFA - 1	Holl, Justin $675,000$675,000 RD UFA - 1
Marincin, Martin $700,000$700,000 LD UFA - 1

Feb. 23, 2020 at 11:32 a.m.

MNBassman

Joined: May 2015

Posts: 8,141

Likes: 3,571

I think you could get a LOT more for Bracco!!

Feb. 23, 2020 at 11:37 a.m.

AnalyticsGeek

Banned

Joined: Sep. 2019

Posts: 5,011

Likes: 1,636

Yes I agree. Analytics suggest that Mitch Marner is a below replacement level player throughout his career. Although given his performance from this season alone, that’s what it kinda looks like.

Feb. 23, 2020 at 11:37 a.m.

Marincin_memes

I hate this team

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 1,056

Likes: 467

I totally agree, we should go back to a more simple times.

Feb. 23, 2020 at 11:41 a.m.

Claesson4Norris

Joined: Jan. 2018

Posts: 16,980

Likes: 11,981

What do you mean by "don't work"? They are literally just a tool to measure all the things that get old school hockey minds praise anyway, just in a more nebulous, vague way.

Feb. 23, 2020 at 11:43 a.m.

TanSor

Joined: Jun. 2017

Posts: 8,697

Likes: 7,071

The problem is everyone is trying to find a "one size fits all" analytics tool, but in order to effectively use analytics (and I'm talking about more than just hockey here), you have to take ALL factors into account. Context matters, and a lot of analytics tools out there aren't able to fully capture context or have a deficiency in capturing some variable. Basically you shouldn't use analytics solely, but you also shouldn't completely disregard them.

Ajp_18 and mhockey91 liked this.

Feb. 23, 2020 at 11:46 a.m.

Dan10900

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 7,261

Likes: 2,706

Quoting: MitchMarnerElite

Yes I agree. Analytics suggest that Mitch Marner is a below replacement level player throughout his career. Although given his performance from this season alone, that’s what it kinda looks like.

Wrong, going off the xGAR --> market value calculator, Marner is only slightly overpaid (by like a few hundred K) even by GAR he's still a legitimate top liner (on a three year sample size)

Feb. 23, 2020 at 11:47 a.m.

jmac490

Joined: Jan. 2017

Posts: 7,743

Likes: 1,922

Quoting: MitchMarnerElite

Yes I agree. Analytics suggest that Mitch Marner is a below replacement level player throughout his career. Although given his performance from this season alone, that’s what it kinda looks like.

He's literally over a PPG. Stop trolling please.

mhockey91 liked this.

Feb. 23, 2020 at 11:48 a.m.

Dan10900

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 7,261

Likes: 2,706

Fun fact, CAR uses analytics way more (and way better) than TOR, guys like Barrie it Ceci would have never been traded for (or signed) by an actual analytical GM...

Feb. 23, 2020 at 11:58 a.m.

AnalyticsGeek

Banned

Joined: Sep. 2019

Posts: 5,011

Likes: 1,636

Quoting: AFOX10900

Wrong, going off the xGAR --> market value calculator, Marner is only slightly overpaid (by like a few hundred K) even by GAR he's still a legitimate top liner (on a three year sample size)

Wow I didn’t know that. I hope you are right because the majority of hockey who I interact with on social media believe that Marner is nothing special.

Dan10900 liked this.

Feb. 23, 2020 at 11:59 a.m.

#10

mhockey91

Joined: Jun. 2015

Posts: 15,921

Likes: 6,980

Quoting: TanSor

Exactly!!! It’s a combination of points, analytics, and eye test which prove to be useful to measure a player.

TanSor liked this.

Feb. 23, 2020 at 12:00 p.m.

#11

Weezley

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 887

Likes: 334

Quoting: AFOX10900

Fun fact, CAR uses analytics way more (and way better) than TOR, guys like Barrie it Ceci would have never been traded for (or signed) by an actual analytical GM...

Was Barrie an analytics disaster in Colorado? I know he wasn’t a defensive dynamo but that’s never been the plan for the Leafs.

KakkoForMauriceRichardAward and Dan10900 liked this.

Feb. 23, 2020 at 12:03 p.m.

#12

AnalyticsGeek

Banned

Joined: Sep. 2019

Posts: 5,011

Likes: 1,636

Quoting: jmac490

He's literally over a PPG. Stop trolling please.

He has only 2 points in the last 4 games. Not good enough.

Feb. 23, 2020 at 12:06 p.m.

#13

Dan10900

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 7,261

Likes: 2,706

Quoting: Weezley

Was Barrie an analytics disaster in Colorado? I know he wasn’t a defensive dynamo but that’s never been the plan for the Leafs.

He had a worse bet impact that Martin marincin, so yes (basically average offensively, just brutal defensively)

Feb. 23, 2020 at 12:10 p.m.

#14

jmac490

Joined: Jan. 2017

Posts: 7,743

Likes: 1,922

Quoting: MitchMarnerElite

He has only 2 points in the last 4 games. Not good enough.

MikeythePens fan. Is this you?

Feb. 23, 2020 at 12:11 p.m.

#15

Weezley

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 887

Likes: 334

Quoting: AFOX10900

He had a worse bet impact that Martin marincin, so yes (basically average offensively, just brutal defensively)

I meant when he was in Colorado. He couldn’t have been on par with Marincin then. That’s crazy. Haha. I suppose Marincin got the easier matchups but still.

Feb. 23, 2020 at 12:15 p.m.

#16

Dan10900

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 7,261

Likes: 2,706

Quoting: Weezley

I meant when he was in Colorado. He couldn’t have been on par with Marincin then. That’s crazy. Haha. I suppose Marincin got the easier matchups but still.

No, that's using him in COL vs marincin last year, using RAPM which takes into account QoT and QoC

Feb. 23, 2020 at 12:17 p.m.

#17

Bc44

Joined: Sep. 2019

Posts: 257

Likes: 93

Its just a tool in the tool box and you need all the tools in the tool box to get the job done.

Feb. 23, 2020 at 1:07 p.m.

#18

PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood

Banned

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 24,997

Likes: 7,855

Quoting: MitchMarnerElite

Yes I agree. Analytics suggest that Mitch Marner is a below replacement level player throughout his career. Although given his performance from this season alone, that’s what it kinda looks like.

So you changed your name? Still 100% a robot though.

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