Joined: Jul. 2018
Posts: 349
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This is close in terms of value over a 4 year term. Muzzin will probably provide value pretty much in line with where he is being paid. Likely able to be even better in years 1-2 with being a little over paid in years 3-4.
Where I think the Leafs did pretty well is not having to overpay in term or dollars for a D who kind of fits every teams ideal 2nd pairing guy. Some grit, some toughness, moves the puck well, plays both ends well, some leadership. Those players that the old school and analytics crowds like equally are usually destined to be overpaid.
What could make this deal better will depend on structure. If the NTC terms aren't bad in years 3-4 and he is making less in cash than cap hit, the Leafs could very well have a D that will probably be worth more than his cap hit early in the deal, and actually trade him for positive value at the end.
There is still a bit of a gamble, they are signing a 30+ player for four years and paying him in a way where he needs to be at least your 3rd best D, but I think with the teams needs, and the way this type of player will get valued league wide, this is pretty solid.