Edited Feb. 24, 2020 at 8:16 p.m.
NOTE: I don't expect many to read this wall of text, but I'd like to have discussion(s) in the replies if anyone feels like saying anything.
=====================[DEADLINE]=====================
Firstly, it's disappointing that it took both Lehner and Gustafsson to recoup the draft picks coughed up in the Shaw trade. Bowman tried to inflate his leverage and everyone called his bluff. Despite that, if the Lehner contract talks already broke down and Bowman was bullish on a sub two-year deal, then Lehner had to be dealt. It had to happen.
=====================[PRESENT]=====================
With that out of the way, there's a few things that CHI need to focus on right now:
- Lock up Kubalik, so that there's something to be optimistic about.
- Get Strome back in the center position. He's absolutely dreadful at wing and is losing confidence every game.
- Continue to give Carlsson an extended look in the NHL. He was considered more NHL-ready for this season than Boqvist. Talent evaluators like Scott Wheeler and Corey Pronman both shared this sentiment.
=====================[FUTURE]=====================
Some more long-term ideas that this franchise has to be thinking about:
- FINAL EVALUATIONS OF COLLITON. He's failed to motivate the team when it matters most. He never seems to have concrete answers to recurring problems. I expect inconsistencies with a younger coach like Colliton, but I don't really need to elaborate on why he's not the best option. You have multiple NHL-caliber coaches waiting to be employed. Since he was one of Bowman's appointments, I can see him being demoted to the hockey operations staff to be passively involved with the team. That would allow him to learn from whoever would replace him, and CHI could revisit his role as a coach in the distant future.
- THE DRAFT; there's another chance at winning the lottery. Worst-case scenario and CHI have a top-16 pick. Some of my personal favorite prospects that I'd recommend looking into and watching some montages on:
> Lucas Raymond (LW): possesses a combination of skill, vision, and IQ that nobody else can match in this draft. Competes hard in a same frame; expected to go anywhere from 3-10.
> Tim Stutzle (LW): best forward skater in the draft that is involved everywhere on the ice. Ability to make high-end plays and finish; expected to go anywhere from 3-10.
> Jamie Drysdale (D): one of the best skaters in the draft and defends well due to his speed and gap. Can create with speed and vision; expected to go anywhere from 5-12.
> Anton Lundell (C): similar to Dach as a big, playmaking center who's effective and efficient. Good control in-tight and draws in defenders; expected to go anywhere from 9-16.
- THE OFF-SEASON. After seeing the single-season resurgence NYR are having, Bowman & co. have to be considering a multi-year rebuild. Kane and Toews could be Kreider and Zibanejad; Seabrook/Keith would be similar to Staal/Shattenkirk. A full-out rebuild is also a point that Scott Powers has alluded to recently, emphasizing McDonough's newfound focus on the future.
- THE PROSPECTS. Mitchell and Barratt are likely due to enter the fray at the end of this current season, with Mitchell being considered a lock on the backend next year. Even though he's not much of a prospect anymore, Maxim Shalunov is expected to come from overseas. Delia or Lankinen are likely to get their first true chance in the NHL. Kurashev and Entwhistle are potential break-out candidates if they have stellar prospect/training camps. In the grand scheme of things, these guys aren't necessarily season-changers alone, but they'll definitely provide a boost to a roster that looks lame and unmotivated.
=====================[STATS]=====================
Finally, I want to look at some statistical differences between this year's roster and last year's to see if there was any real improvement (there wasn't). All figures can be viewed from Natural Stat Trick.
- 2018/19 xGF%: 45.80
- 2019/20 xGF%: 46.41
- An improvement, but a marginal one. A whole percentage point is nothing to scoff at when talking in terms of expected goals, but when CHI is league-bottom in xGA%, that's just not a substantial improvement.
- 2018/19 CF%: 49.34
- 2019/20 CF%: 48.30
- Opposite to that of xGF%, CHI had a marginal decrease in shot-attempt difference. The main reason for that change was a failure of defensemen not being able to hold their own blueline when the opposition tried to enter the zone (more so than last season).
- 2018/19 Points%: 0.512
- 2018/19 Points%: 0.500
- With one of the best goal tandems in the league (who are more likely to save you points than a single defenseman), CHI managed to average less points per game than last year. I will note that this number could go up in the remaining regular season games, but it's just as likely to go down.
Looking through a statistical lens, this is a bona fide bottom-dweller team. McDonough and Bowman would be correct in feeling a long-term rebuild is a solution to these issues. In the past off-season, they tried getting better now and it didn't work (it actually made them slightly worse).