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Some Thoughts

Feb. 24, 2020 at 8:09 p.m.
#1
Roviet_Sussia
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Edited Feb. 24, 2020 at 8:16 p.m.
NOTE: I don't expect many to read this wall of text, but I'd like to have discussion(s) in the replies if anyone feels like saying anything.

=====================[DEADLINE]=====================

Firstly, it's disappointing that it took both Lehner and Gustafsson to recoup the draft picks coughed up in the Shaw trade. Bowman tried to inflate his leverage and everyone called his bluff. Despite that, if the Lehner contract talks already broke down and Bowman was bullish on a sub two-year deal, then Lehner had to be dealt. It had to happen.

=====================[PRESENT]=====================

With that out of the way, there's a few things that CHI need to focus on right now:

- Lock up Kubalik, so that there's something to be optimistic about.
- Get Strome back in the center position. He's absolutely dreadful at wing and is losing confidence every game.
- Continue to give Carlsson an extended look in the NHL. He was considered more NHL-ready for this season than Boqvist. Talent evaluators like Scott Wheeler and Corey Pronman both shared this sentiment.

=====================[FUTURE]=====================

Some more long-term ideas that this franchise has to be thinking about:

- FINAL EVALUATIONS OF COLLITON. He's failed to motivate the team when it matters most. He never seems to have concrete answers to recurring problems. I expect inconsistencies with a younger coach like Colliton, but I don't really need to elaborate on why he's not the best option. You have multiple NHL-caliber coaches waiting to be employed. Since he was one of Bowman's appointments, I can see him being demoted to the hockey operations staff to be passively involved with the team. That would allow him to learn from whoever would replace him, and CHI could revisit his role as a coach in the distant future.

- THE DRAFT; there's another chance at winning the lottery. Worst-case scenario and CHI have a top-16 pick. Some of my personal favorite prospects that I'd recommend looking into and watching some montages on:
> Lucas Raymond (LW): possesses a combination of skill, vision, and IQ that nobody else can match in this draft. Competes hard in a same frame; expected to go anywhere from 3-10.
> Tim Stutzle (LW): best forward skater in the draft that is involved everywhere on the ice. Ability to make high-end plays and finish; expected to go anywhere from 3-10.
> Jamie Drysdale (D): one of the best skaters in the draft and defends well due to his speed and gap. Can create with speed and vision; expected to go anywhere from 5-12.
> Anton Lundell (C): similar to Dach as a big, playmaking center who's effective and efficient. Good control in-tight and draws in defenders; expected to go anywhere from 9-16.

- THE OFF-SEASON. After seeing the single-season resurgence NYR are having, Bowman & co. have to be considering a multi-year rebuild. Kane and Toews could be Kreider and Zibanejad; Seabrook/Keith would be similar to Staal/Shattenkirk. A full-out rebuild is also a point that Scott Powers has alluded to recently, emphasizing McDonough's newfound focus on the future.

- THE PROSPECTS. Mitchell and Barratt are likely due to enter the fray at the end of this current season, with Mitchell being considered a lock on the backend next year. Even though he's not much of a prospect anymore, Maxim Shalunov is expected to come from overseas. Delia or Lankinen are likely to get their first true chance in the NHL. Kurashev and Entwhistle are potential break-out candidates if they have stellar prospect/training camps. In the grand scheme of things, these guys aren't necessarily season-changers alone, but they'll definitely provide a boost to a roster that looks lame and unmotivated.

=====================[STATS]=====================

Finally, I want to look at some statistical differences between this year's roster and last year's to see if there was any real improvement (there wasn't). All figures can be viewed from Natural Stat Trick.

- 2018/19 xGF%: 45.80
- 2019/20 xGF%: 46.41
- An improvement, but a marginal one. A whole percentage point is nothing to scoff at when talking in terms of expected goals, but when CHI is league-bottom in xGA%, that's just not a substantial improvement.

- 2018/19 CF%: 49.34
- 2019/20 CF%: 48.30
- Opposite to that of xGF%, CHI had a marginal decrease in shot-attempt difference. The main reason for that change was a failure of defensemen not being able to hold their own blueline when the opposition tried to enter the zone (more so than last season).

- 2018/19 Points%: 0.512
- 2018/19 Points%: 0.500
- With one of the best goal tandems in the league (who are more likely to save you points than a single defenseman), CHI managed to average less points per game than last year. I will note that this number could go up in the remaining regular season games, but it's just as likely to go down.

Looking through a statistical lens, this is a bona fide bottom-dweller team. McDonough and Bowman would be correct in feeling a long-term rebuild is a solution to these issues. In the past off-season, they tried getting better now and it didn't work (it actually made them slightly worse).
Feb. 25, 2020 at 6:59 p.m.
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really well written. i agree with most of what you say. for the sake of argument i have a few point of views we can go back and forth with:

1. trades in off season:
of player under contract, and contributes, who do you think is moved. its safe to think at lease one will be traded of significance. here are my choices:
a) nylander- please i do not like him at all
b) strome- i think his rights will be traded. i dont think he is worth it to keep around
c) Keith- this is a long shot, but for a team that needs a steady dman, and 5.5mil is not a lot. i think a team in win now mode would consider this. he would get a good return as well i believe.
d) would get the best return, but not sure what it wouuld look like.

2. signings
like most think crow will be brought back, and i dont mind that, i dont think many of us have playoff hopes next year. chance of signing Lehner less than 5%? here are a few i would want signed:
a)Barrie- i think any signings will be on D. he could be signed pennys on the dollar, and i think in a more sheltered position he could get back to a productive dman.
b)DeMelo- same as above, watch him a lot, and am confident in him
c) Haula- like him a lot. big strong guy.

3. Draft
assuming chicago picks in the top 8. does anyone know how many of the top 8-10 prospects are considered NHL ready for next year? not many had dach as ready, so assuming anyone chicago picks will probably be in the lineup. also any goalies that will be projected to be taken in top 15? i think they will go for a forward.

i dont see them making big waves next year. just ride it out, sell at deadline, and hope these young guys are ready for 2022.
Feb. 26, 2020 at 9:28 a.m.
#3
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Roviet_Sussia
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Joined: Apr. 2019
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Quoting: battadan
really well written. i agree with most of what you say. for the sake of argument i have a few point of views we can go back and forth with:

1. trades in off season:
of player under contract, and contributes, who do you think is moved. its safe to think at lease one will be traded of significance. here are my choices:
a) nylander- please i do not like him at all
b) strome- i think his rights will be traded. i dont think he is worth it to keep around
c) Keith- this is a long shot, but for a team that needs a steady dman, and 5.5mil is not a lot. i think a team in win now mode would consider this. he would get a good return as well i believe.
d) would get the best return, but not sure what it wouuld look like.

2. signings
like most think crow will be brought back, and i dont mind that, i dont think many of us have playoff hopes next year. chance of signing Lehner less than 5%? here are a few i would want signed:
a)Barrie- i think any signings will be on D. he could be signed pennys on the dollar, and i think in a more sheltered position he could get back to a productive dman.
b)DeMelo- same as above, watch him a lot, and am confident in him
c) Haula- like him a lot. big strong guy.

3. Draft
assuming chicago picks in the top 8. does anyone know how many of the top 8-10 prospects are considered NHL ready for next year? not many had dach as ready, so assuming anyone chicago picks will probably be in the lineup. also any goalies that will be projected to be taken in top 15? i think they will go for a forward.

i dont see them making big waves next year. just ride it out, sell at deadline, and hope these young guys are ready for 2022.


ON TRADES:
- I've not completely jumped ship on Nylander, mainly because he hasn't had an opportunity to play higher in the lineup since the beginning of the year. He's improved considerably and is one of the best players in the NHL at gaining possession through controlled entries (much like Kane). He's been working hard every game and I want to see him rewarded with a spot on the 2nd/3rd line.

- I understand where wanting to trade Strome comes from, but it's not explicitly because of him. Colliton has opted to play him in the RW slot since the start of the year, where he's struggled mightily. Wingers rely on speed down the boards and quick-transition plays to generate offense. Strome isn't fast, and doesn't have the edgework to evade defensemen protecting the blueline. If Strome were to be played as a center again, he wouldn't be relying on his speed, and he would be able to trail the rush and make plays from behind. Strome's only a point-per-game player when he's at center, so he needs to be there.

- I do, however, agree with moving Keith. Dom Luszczyszyn has created a wonderful player-rating tool for the Athletic, and Keith is the only player on CHI's backend that is currently playing below replacement level (not good). I think part of that negative rating is due to the crazy amount of minutes he's playing at his age, but you can't ignore the fact that every pair he's on struggles. I'd love to see his role diminished on the team when Mitchell steps in this coming season, but I don't think Colliton/the organization have the balls to do that. As such, a trade would make more sense (especially to FLA).


ON SIGNINGS:
- Considering that Bowman was non-committal to signing Lehner, I have a feeling that both Seabrook and Shaw will be expected back next year. Considering they're going to have to extend top-line forwards Kubalik, Strome and Caggiula as well, it's looking like they'll have no room for any signings next year. Even when they buy-out Smith and Maatta, the cap is still extremely tight. If the proposed Keith trade goes through, they could free up some space there. The only problem is that CHI would likely have to take back some type of contract with term, eliminating a portion of the cap space that they just gained.

- If they do find a way to make space for a signing, I like the idea of Barrie as well. With his up and down season in TOR, we should be able to get him on a one-year "prove it" deal that Bowman would like because of the term. Barrie would help with the defensive issues of exiting the zone with possession and potentially provide some extra scoring pop on the blueline.


ON THE DRAFT:
- I would say Lafreniere and Byfield are both NHL-ready, both in terms of physique and skill. Everyone else in the top-16 are likely a year away from the NHL, barring any of them go to college (in which case it's likely two years). Under the circumstance that any of those other 14 prospects have outstanding training camps, there's a chance they could be an immediate impact player; it's still not likely though.
 
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