Forums/Armchair-GM

Pesce for Kapanen Samis Son Goes Home

Created by: Claymish
Initial Creation Date: Feb 26, 2020
Published: Feb 26 at 2:04 pm
Team: 2020-21 Toronto Maple Leafs
Team Explanation
A trade that works for both teams...Leafs finally get an elite defensive right shot D-man with a great contract. Canes free up space and a bit of money to resign Hamilton next summer, get Sami's son and forms the best Finnish line in NHL history.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
Mikheyev, Ilya2$1,250,000
Brooks, Adam2$825,000
Gauthier, Frédérik3$825,000
Malgin, Denis1$825,000
Dermott, Travis1$1,650,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
Spezza, Jason1$800,000
Clifford, Kyle5$1,450,000
Trades
TOR
  1. Pesce, Brett
CAR
  1. Kapanen, Kasperi
  2. Bracco, Jeremy [RFA Rights]
Additional Details:
Sami's son goes home! After great play down the stretch without Pesce's they realize they are still strong on D and pull a trade to form the strongest Finnish Line ever assembled Teravainen/ Aho/ Kapanen.
Buyouts
  • Mikhail Grabovski: $0
Retained Salary Transactions
  • Phil Kessel: $1,200,000 (15%)
DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
2020
TOR
TOR
VGK
VGK
TOR
CAR
COL
SJS
STL
WPG
2021
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
2022
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES BONUSESCAP SPACE
23$85,500,000$84,796,866$0$400,000$703,134
Left WingCenterRight Wing
TOR
Johnsson, Andreas
$3,400,000
LW
UFA - 3
TOR
Matthews, Auston
$11,634,000
C
UFA - 4
TOR
Marner, Mitchell
$10,893,000
RW
UFA - 5
TOR
Hyman, Zach
$2,250,000
LW
NTC
UFA - 1
TOR
Tavares, John
$11,000,000
C
NMC
UFA - 5
TOR
Nylander, William
$6,962,366
RW, LW
UFA - 4
TOR
Engvall, Pierre
$1,250,000
LW, RW
RFA - 2
TOR
Kerfoot, Alexander
$3,500,000
C, LW
UFA - 3
TOR
Mikheyev, Ilya
$1,250,000
LW, RW
RFA
TOR
Clifford, Kyle
$1,450,000
LW
UFA
TOR
Gauthier, Frédérik
$825,000
C
RFA
TOR
Malgin, Denis
$825,000
RW, C
RFA
TOR
Robertson, Nicholas
$850,000
LW
RFA - 2
TOR
Spezza, Jason
$800,000
C, RW
UFA
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
TOR
Rielly, Morgan
$5,000,000
LD
NTC
UFA - 2
CAR
Pesce, Brett
$4,025,000
RD
UFA - 4
TOR
Andersen, Frederik
$5,000,000
G
NTC
UFA - 1
TOR
Muzzin, Jake
$5,625,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 4
TOR
Holl, Justin
$2,000,000
RD
NTC
UFA - 3
TOR
Campbell, Jack
$1,650,000
G
UFA - 2
TOR
Sandin, Rasmus
$894,167
LD
RFA - 2
TOR
Liljegren, Timothy
$863,333
RD
RFA - 2
TOR
Dermott, Travis
$1,650,000
LD
RFA

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Feb 26 at 2:05
#1
tomato
Joined: Oct 2018
Posts: 328
Likes: 179
I would do this in a heart beat. But The canes dont even consider it.
AFOX10900 liked this.
Feb 26 at 2:07
#2
Joined: May 2019
Posts: 2,999
Likes: 993
ahahhahahahhahahhahahhahhahahh
AFOX10900 liked this.
Feb 26 at 2:07
#3
Joined: Jun 2019
Posts: 3,597
Likes: 1,320
I see that the trade works for Toronto but who is the other team it works for?
AFOX10900 liked this.
Feb 26 at 2:07
#4
Lets Go Rangers
Joined: May 2017
Posts: 2,096
Likes: 510
Leafs fans REALLY overestimate Kappanen's value, and I like Kappy a lot.
AFOX10900 liked this.
Feb 26 at 2:07
#5
Not a burger anymore
Joined: Oct 2017
Posts: 9,776
Likes: 4,231
Canes laugh.

It's Nylander or Marner for Pesce. Not moving their only long-term RHD for a 3rd line winger.
AFOX10900 liked this.
Feb 26 at 2:10
#6
Bcarlo25
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 12,151
Likes: 3,527
Yiiikes. Brady Skjei just got a 1st. You think Pesce is going for Kapanen and a diminishing asset in Bracco? Maybe this gets Brady Skjei, but no chance does it get Pesce. I don’t think adding a first comes close to getting it done.
Feb 26 at 2:18
#7
Bcarlo25
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 12,151
Likes: 3,527
Ugh. I just can’t believe you said, “a trade that works for both teams.” At least be honest about your pillaging ways.
Feb 26 at 2:26
#8
LongtimeLeafsufferer
Joined: Jul 2015
Posts: 30,463
Likes: 7,508
I like Kapanen but he sure isn't worth a top 4 Dman on a team friendly contract. Canes management, their fans and junior Kapanen don't give a flying you know what that senior Kapanen was once a Cane.
Godfried liked this.
Feb 26 at 2:37
#9
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 5,691
Likes: 2,345
Death, Taxes and Leaf Fans lowballing offers for Pesce
Godfried liked this.
Feb 26 at 2:39
#10
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 12,894
Likes: 3,977
Quoting: BurgerBoss
Canes laugh.

It's Nylander or Marner for Pesce. Not moving their only long-term RHD for a 3rd line winger.


Lol, just like Manson is worth Sandin, Liljegren, Kapanen and 14 1st round picks.

"He's a right handed shut down defenceman!" He's right handed and was playing with a star player in Slavin who really is the one that does all the work. Pesce is the most overrated player on this site.
Feb 26 at 2:48
#11
Not a burger anymore
Joined: Oct 2017
Posts: 9,776
Likes: 4,231
Edited Feb 26 at 3:01
Quoting: PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood
Lol, just like Manson is worth Sandin, Liljegren, Kapanen and 14 1st round picks.

"He's a right handed shut down defenceman!" He's right handed and was playing with a star player in Slavin who really is the one that does all the work. Pesce is the most overrated player on this site.


I do think that Manson is worth Liljegren. I actually had a discussion about this with a Ducks fan who wanted more than Liljegren for Manson, I myself thought that Liljegren alone should be enough because Manson is not that good really.

Pesce is another story though. He's actually solid. And he has a long-term dream contract.

He has a great value.

For a competitive playoff team that CAR is, if Pesce has to be moved, they want to upgrade their team level-wise. Future assets are unnecessary.

This is why Nylander or Marner are the only assets that make sense.
Feb 26 at 2:57
#12
Godfried
Joined: Dec 2018
Posts: 399
Likes: 105
Quoting: BurgerBoss
I do think that Manson is worth Liljegren. I actually had a discussion about this with a Ducks fan who wanted more than Liljegren for Manson, I myself thought that Liljegren alone should be enough because Manson is not that good really.

Pesce is another story though. He's actually solid. And he has a long-term dream contract.

He has a great value.

For a competitive playoff team that CAR is, if Pesce has to be moved, they want to upgrade their team level-wise. Future assets are unnecessary.

This is why Nylander or Marner all the only assets that make sense.


Couldnt agree more with this. The leafs would be a better team to swap nylander (over valued by leafs fan but similar value to pesce) for pesce straight up. Save on space and make your defense better.

Quoting: PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood
Lol, just like Manson is worth Sandin, Liljegren, Kapanen and 14 1st round picks.

"He's a right handed shut down defenceman!" He's right handed and was playing with a star player in Slavin who really is the one that does all the work. Pesce is the most overrated player on this site.


Get a grip man, slavin is terrific but he doesnt do all the work. Pesce is very solid. And nobody has said anything about manson like that. It's just that you over value kapanen
Feb 26 at 2:58
#13
Let'sGoBlues | WPGv4
Joined: Jun 2016
Posts: 4,573
Likes: 2,650
Quoting: PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood
Lol, just like Manson is worth Sandin, Liljegren, Kapanen and 14 1st round picks.

"He's a right handed shut down defenceman!" He's right handed and was playing with a star player in Slavin who really is the one that does all the work. Pesce is the most overrated player on this site.


I don't think Pesce is overrated.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/trying-identify-best-defensive-defencemen-nhl/
Feb 26 at 3:11
#14
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 12,894
Likes: 3,977
Quoting: BurgerBoss
I do think that Manson is worth Liljegren. I actually had a discussion about this with a Ducks fan who wanted more than Liljegren for Manson, I myself thought that Liljegren alone should be enough because Manson is not that good really.

Pesce is another story though. He's actually solid. And he has a long-term dream contract.

He has a great value.

For a competitive playoff team that CAR is, if Pesce has to be moved, they want to upgrade their team level-wise. Future assets are unnecessary.

This is why Nylander or Marner are the only assets that make sense.


I know the Leafs lost against Carolina the other night and really didn't look good for the second half of the game but prior to that, Matthews made Pesce look silly several times. Slavin is a star, he carries their defence. Pesce is a benefit of his surroundings. If he had to carry anything, he'd go no where. He's a good player but he's not half of what this site thinks he is.
Feb 26 at 3:15
#15
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 12,894
Likes: 3,977
Quoting: Godfried
Couldnt agree more with this. The leafs would be a better team to swap nylander (over valued by leafs fan but similar value to pesce) for pesce straight up. Save on space and make your defense better.

Pesce would be good playing with Rielly, but that is because Rielly is one of the best defenceman in the league...Like Slavin. Pesce for Nylander is just a joke. Also to say Nylander is overrated is the same tired old crap that is on this site. He's on pace for 35+ goals and 70+ points and is only 23 meaning his best hockey is still to come.

This is the same anti Leaf bias that has people saying Carolina light years better than the Leafs and its not close.....despite the two teams have the exact same points at this stage of the season. If anything Carolina is far more likely to miss the playoffs than TO. Why? Because TO just needs to be better than Florida to make the playoffs. Carolina has to make a wildcard spot. Doesn't look like they are going to catch Philly, to get into the top 3 in their division.

But facts and reality don't mean anything when opinion and personal bias is everything.

Get a grip man, slavin is terrific but he doesnt do all the work. Pesce is very solid. And nobody has said anything about manson like that. It's just that you over value kapanen
Feb 26 at 3:21
#16
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 12,894
Likes: 3,977


The problem with those articles is its hard to pin point why exactly players show well in advance stats. Is it a product of their team's system? Who they play with? What is their competition each night? I believe at the time of this article, Hamilton was still playing, and he was playing lesser competition on the 2nd pair.
Feb 26 at 3:33
#17
Bcarlo25
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 12,151
Likes: 3,527
Quoting: PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood
The problem with those articles is its hard to pin point why exactly players show well in advance stats. Is it a product of their team's system? Who they play with? What is their competition each night? I believe at the time of this article, Hamilton was still playing, and he was playing lesser competition on the 2nd pair.


You think they tried to give dougie Hamilton the tough match ups? Dougie Hamilton? Seriously?
hanson493 liked this.
Feb 26 at 3:40
#18
Joined: Jun 2019
Posts: 2,762
Likes: 919
Quoting: Bcarlo25
You think they tried to give dougie Hamilton the tough match ups? Dougie Hamilton? Seriously?


Softer than baby poo Dougie Hamilton. Can confirm did not get the tough matchups lol.
Bcarlo25 liked this.
Feb 26 at 3:50
#19
Let'sGoBlues | WPGv4
Joined: Jun 2016
Posts: 4,573
Likes: 2,650
Edited Feb 26 at 4:05
Quoting: PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood
The problem with those articles is its hard to pin point why exactly players show well in advance stats. Is it a product of their team's system? Who they play with? What is their competition each night? I believe at the time of this article, Hamilton was still playing, and he was playing lesser competition on the 2nd pair.


If it were a product of his team, wouldn't there be a teammate that shows better numbers? The competition is a valid question, but if a guy is clearly effective based on looking at these stats, I would think that they have earned the trust of their coach to play in defensive situations. It's an assumption, but it doesn't refute the stats. So anyway, there is data here on Quality of Competition https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/qoct/1920/CAR/pescebr94/wrap; it's tricky to read but it shows that Pesce spends more time than the average player on the ice against a team's top 4 forwards (and that he's a top-3 d-man for his team in terms of TOI). You could contrast Pesce's deployment to someone like TVR who gets the easy deployment (https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/qoct/1920/CAR/vanritr91/wrap); it shows he faces the 5-12 forwards of the opposition more than the average player would.
hanson493 liked this.
Feb 26 at 4:49
#20
Joined: Jun 2019
Posts: 2,762
Likes: 919
Quoting: A_K
If it were a product of his team, wouldn't there be a teammate that shows better numbers? The competition is a valid question, but if a guy is clearly effective based on looking at these stats, I would think that they have earned the trust of their coach to play in defensive situations. It's an assumption, but it doesn't refute the stats. So anyway, there is data here on Quality of Competition https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/qoct/1920/CAR/pescebr94/wrap; it's tricky to read but it shows that Pesce spends more time than the average player on the ice against a team's top 4 forwards (and that he's a top-3 d-man for his team in terms of TOI). You could contrast Pesce's deployment to someone like TVR who gets the easy deployment (https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/qoct/1920/CAR/vanritr91/wrap); it shows he faces the 5-12 forwards of the opposition more than the average player would.


Quoting: PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood
The problem with those articles is its hard to pin point why exactly players show well in advance stats. Is it a product of their team's system? Who they play with? What is their competition each night? I believe at the time of this article, Hamilton was still playing, and he was playing lesser competition on the 2nd pair.


pwned.
Feb 26 at 4:59
#21
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 12,894
Likes: 3,977
Quoting: A_K
If it were a product of his team, wouldn't there be a teammate that shows better numbers? The competition is a valid question, but if a guy is clearly effective based on looking at these stats, I would think that they have earned the trust of their coach to play in defensive situations. It's an assumption, but it doesn't refute the stats. So anyway, there is data here on Quality of Competition https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/qoct/1920/CAR/pescebr94/wrap; it's tricky to read but it shows that Pesce spends more time than the average player on the ice against a team's top 4 forwards (and that he's a top-3 d-man for his team in terms of TOI). You could contrast Pesce's deployment to someone like TVR who gets the easy deployment (https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/qoct/1920/CAR/vanritr91/wrap); it shows he faces the 5-12 forwards of the opposition more than the average player would.


And TVR rarely would play with the likes of Svechnikov, Aho and Turbo but Pesce will spend most of his minutes playing with the top 2 lines of Carolina. Advanced stats are great and I like them but there is a reason almost all teams have their own advance stats department and don't rely on the ones the media and fans do. Its easy to come up with numbers but correlating that data and making sense if it is incredibly difficult especially without watching the player and understanding how the game is played. The number one reason a team is good defensively or not is their system. To defend effectively you need a cohesive 5 man unit that knows what their assignments are. Carolina is very good in that regard. Personal help of course and that is why certain players are more successful than others but the system is the biggest contributor. Pesce is the #3 defenceman in Carolina, and he's been good, but he's also benefiting from the system and the players he plays against as well as being on the 2nd pair for most of the season. Slavin gets the toughest assignments all the time and he excells in those situations. I know you can't take a 1 game snapshot and use that as ammo but the other night Matthews had very little trouble with Pesce but Slavin was always there backing him up. I know Matthews didn't score but he went around Pesce several times without trouble but just couldn't find room behind him due to the teams defensive coverage. Pesce will look good from an advanced stats point of view in that game but only because of everyone else behind him. If he was on TO, he wouldn't suddenly become some sort of superstar, I'd wager he'd look suspect a lot. I just don't see the skills that true top end guys have in Pesce. He is not even close to as good as Parayko.
Feb 26 at 5:00
#22
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 12,894
Likes: 3,977
Quoting: hanson493
pwned.


Good one.
Feb 26 at 5:27
#23
Let'sGoBlues | WPGv4
Joined: Jun 2016
Posts: 4,573
Likes: 2,650
Quoting: PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood
And TVR rarely would play with the likes of Svechnikov, Aho and Turbo but Pesce will spend most of his minutes playing with the top 2 lines of Carolina. Advanced stats are great and I like them but there is a reason almost all teams have their own advance stats department and don't rely on the ones the media and fans do. Its easy to come up with numbers but correlating that data and making sense if it is incredibly difficult especially without watching the player and understanding how the game is played. The number one reason a team is good defensively or not is their system. To defend effectively you need a cohesive 5 man unit that knows what their assignments are. Carolina is very good in that regard. Personal help of course and that is why certain players are more successful than others but the system is the biggest contributor.


So... you said he's overrated because he doesn't face tough competition... but now it doesn't matter when you see that he plays against the top competition because he plays with the best players on his team... If a guy plays with the best players on his team, against the best players on the other team (which is true for Pesce), maybe he's just a good player? Those advanced stats that Berkshire collects (not sure where he gets them from, they're not publicly available) are just the counts of good plays that are made, over a big sample size, while that player is on the ice. If systems were the biggest determining factor for how good a player is at those stats, i.e. suppressing entries/shots, wouldn't the graphs just be clusters of players from each team right near each other? Would Cody Ceci's shot suppression data look nearly the same as Jake Muzzin's? Would teams even bother looking for good players when they could just hire better coaches?

Quoting: PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood
Slavin gets the toughest assignments all the time and he excells in those situations.

His usage looks fairly similar to Pesce's but apparently more entries/shots/etc happened when he was on the ice.

Quoting: PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood
I just don't see the skills that true top end guys have in Pesce.


You may not see the skills because defense is a measure of what doesn't happen
Feb 26 at 6:27
#24
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 12,894
Likes: 3,977
Quoting: A_K
So... you said he's overrated because he doesn't face tough competition... but now it doesn't matter when you see that he plays against the top competition because he plays with the best players on his team... If a guy plays with the best players on his team, against the best players on the other team (which is true for Pesce), maybe he's just a good player? Those advanced stats that Berkshire collects (not sure where he gets them from, they're not publicly available) are just the counts of good plays that are made, over a big sample size, while that player is on the ice. If systems were the biggest determining factor for how good a player is at those stats, i.e. suppressing entries/shots, wouldn't the graphs just be clusters of players from each team right near each other? Would Cody Ceci's shot suppression data look nearly the same as Jake Muzzin's? Would teams even bother looking for good players when they could just hire better coaches?


His usage looks fairly similar to Pesce's but apparently more entries/shots/etc happened when he was on the ice.



You may not see the skills because defense is a measure of what doesn't happen


Pesce is not worth close to Nylander. Everyone outside Leaf fans it seems, think Pesce is worth Nylander + and that is just silly. That is why he's overrated. He's a good player, I don't discount that but he's a secondary asset. That is not worth a 23 year old elite offensive player who's best hockey is still to come.
NR1203 liked this.
Feb 26 at 7:51
#25
Let'sGoBlues | WPGv4
Joined: Jun 2016
Posts: 4,573
Likes: 2,650
Edited Feb 26 at 7:57
Quoting: PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood
Pesce is not worth close to Nylander. Everyone outside Leaf fans it seems, think Pesce is worth Nylander + and that is just silly. That is why he's overrated. He's a good player, I don't discount that but he's a secondary asset. That is not worth a 23 year old elite offensive player who's best hockey is still to come.


Well that's completely different. Pesce is an extremely good defender. Some people just hate Leafs players and/or misunderstand Nylander. Independent of team needs, their value would probably be pretty similar IMO.
hanson493 liked this.
 
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