Quoting: BurgerBoss
I can't really say anything about how you value players like Hall and Holtby, it's your call and you're entitled to your opinion. But you know well that they both are going to get a lot more than what's offered here.
This may well be true, but I'm telling you right now those contracts will be regrettable very quickly - doubly so if the AAV is higher as you are suggesting. Hall isn't worth $9M let alone more than that, for instance. Why? Just look at the most basic number: his point production over the past 3 years, then consider that he's expected to post
fewer points over the next 3 and fewer still in years 4, 5, 6 and 7 of that contract.
Here are some comps for points over the past 2.75 seasons:
Hoffman: 182
Dadonov: 181 (both these guys will take less than $9M AND less than 7 years next summer)
Hall: 180
Marchessault: 178 (signed 6 years x 6.67% at 27)
Radulov: 177 (signed 5 years x 8.06% at 31)
Schenn: 177 (has an 8 year x 7.8% contract set to start next year)
Karlsson: 176 (signed 8 years x 7.24% last summer at 26 - he was an RFA but also a center)
Perron: 172 (signed 4 years x 5.03% at 30)
You're suggesting Hall is worth 7 years and
more than 11% cap hit. I disagree. I'd rather have Hoffman or Dadonov for fewer years and less money any day.
Also, check out Holtby's numbers for the past 3 years - they're below average for NHL goalies. Out of goalies that have played 20+ games, here is how Holtby's Sv% ranks each year:
17-18: 42/56
18-19: 32/60
19-20: 50/56
He's not an NHL starter anymore.