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Trying to Get Better at Valuing Picks Prospects and Bad Contracts

Created by: wdhowell
Published: Mar. 5, 2020 at 3:45 p.m.
Salary Cap: $84,000,000
Season Days: 186/186 (100%)
Central Registry Determination: This trade has been rejected because one of the teams exceeds the 23 player roster limit

Logo of the Detroit Red WingsDetroit Red Wings

Trade occurred while using LTIR
LTIR Relief: $11,187,878
LTIR Used Prior to Trade: -$2,196,431
OutStatusRetained SalaryEffective Cap HitRosterSPCReserve ListDraft Rd 1Rd 2-3Rd 4-7GPGAPGAASv%
2020 2nd round pick (Logo of the Washington CapitalsWSH)---010------
InStatusRetained SalaryEffective Cap HitRosterSPCReserve ListDraft Rd 1Rd 2-3Rd 4-7GPGAPGAASv%
Eriksson, LouiVancouver CanucksNHL-$6,000,000111---476713--
Woo, JettWaivers ExemptVancouver CanucksJunior-$0011---0000--
2020 4th round pick (Logo of the Vancouver CanucksVAN)---001------
ChangeCap SpaceRosterSPCReserve ListDraft Rd 1Rd 2-3Rd 4-7GPGAPGAASv%
Initial$13,384,30924487631112
Change-$6,000,0001220-11
Final$7,384,309 (↓)25 (↑)50 (↑)78 (↑)310 (↓)13 (↑)6713

Logo of the Vancouver CanucksVancouver Canucks

Trade occurred while using LTIR
LTIR Relief: $10,875,000
LTIR Used Prior to Trade: $5,395,000
OutStatusRetained SalaryEffective Cap HitRosterSPCReserve ListDraft Rd 1Rd 2-3Rd 4-7GPGAPGAASv%
Eriksson, LouiVancouver CanucksNHL-$6,000,000111---476713--
Woo, JettWaivers ExemptVancouver CanucksJunior-$0011---0000--
2020 4th round pick (Logo of the Vancouver CanucksVAN)---001------
InStatusRetained SalaryEffective Cap HitRosterSPCReserve ListDraft Rd 1Rd 2-3Rd 4-7GPGAPGAASv%
2020 2nd round pick (Logo of the Washington CapitalsWSH)---010------
ChangeCap SpaceRosterSPCReserve ListDraft Rd 1Rd 2-3Rd 4-7GPGAPGAASv%
Initial$5,480,0002447653512
Change$6,000,000-1-2-201-1
Final$11,480,000 (↑)23 (↓)45 (↓)63 (↓)36 (↑)11 (↓)-6-70
Mar. 5, 2020 at 8:56 p.m.
#1
arky
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That Eriksson contract is just so toxic. Can not see Wings making that deal. Woo is a nice addition but doubt they give up any picks in the 1st or 2nd round, even with the prospect.
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Mar. 5, 2020 at 11:13 p.m.
#2
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Eriksson's contract won't be bad next year for a cap floor team. Sure it's a 6mil cap hit, but it is only 3 and 2 mil of real money paid, after his bonus is due in july.

That said, I think the canucks would make this trade or one with Juolevi in place of Woo and without the 4th.
Mar. 6, 2020 at 5:24 a.m.
#3
StevieY19!!
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The 2nd and Woo are pretty close to being a wash so we are basically taking on a bad contract for a 4th. VAN has to give more or take away the WSH 2nd.
Mar. 6, 2020 at 10:27 a.m.
#4
Thread Starter
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Quoting: mikearky
That Eriksson contract is just so toxic. Can not see Wings making that deal. Woo is a nice addition but doubt they give up any picks in the 1st or 2nd round, even with the prospect.


Thanks for the input. I feel like it is short lived enough that trying to basically purchase a pick or a prospect is worth it, but to each their own.

Quoting: SDR
Eriksson's contract won't be bad next year for a cap floor team. Sure it's a 6mil cap hit, but it is only 3 and 2 mil of real money paid, after his bonus is due in july.

That said, I think the canucks would make this trade or one with Juolevi in place of Woo and without the 4th.


Thanks for the input. I would say that Vancouver is up against cap pretty hard, so it isn't so much as real dollars and cents as it is the AAV. If the cap raises to $88M next season, this becomes far less an issue for them.

Quoting: AnyoneButTheBruins
The 2nd and Woo are pretty close to being a wash so we are basically taking on a bad contract for a 4th. VAN has to give more or take away the WSH 2nd.


Thanks for the input. Yeah, I was wondering myself if Woo is worth a 2nd rounder by himself. He's done well for a few seasons in the juniors now whereas a 2nd rounder this season may only have one season of good success. I didn't know if that made him a little more valuable. Like I said, I'm not good at making these kinds of valuations yet. I'm trying to improve, so thanks for the constructive critique. I still think something can be done here as Vancouver is about to have to make hard decisions with relation to the cap and doesn't have a 1st or 2nd in the draft this year. The Red Wings have empty cap space and three 2nds. I'd be on the phone with them is what I'm saying.
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Mar. 6, 2020 at 3:29 p.m.
#5
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Edited Mar. 6, 2020 at 3:35 p.m.
Quoting: wdhowell
Thanks for the input. I would say that Vancouver is up against cap pretty hard, so it isn't so much as real dollars and cents as it is the AAV. If the cap raises to $88M next season, this becomes far less an issue for them.

That’s what I said, for a cap-floor team, the contract isn’t toxic at all. For a team up against the cap, it’s one of the worst in the NHL (behind every longer term deal in SJ and all the other deals handed out July 1, 2016). But that’s also the beauty of the contract at this point. There is value for a cap-floor team in that if they accepted a trade for Eriksson, they only have to pay him 5mil real dollars while getting 12mil of cap value over the remaining term. That allows those cap-floor teams to reduce operational costs during those poor years, making the team more profitable than needing to pay a 6mil/per-player, the full 6 mil to hit the cap floor. And for 2 years, that’s not a bad deal for the cap floor team.

Now, the Canucks or similar teams still need to give up something to make it happen, I’m certainly not saying they wouldn’t. BUT, they wouldn’t have to give up as much as what Calgary would to unload Lucic, or what SJ will have to give up to unload Jones, and eventually Karlsson/Burns/Vlasic/Couture/Kane when all those guys start to slide in performance-to-pay ratio ... which some of them are very close to already doing on very fresh contracts. Think of what SJ would have to give up to unload the last 4years of Karlsson’s 11.5/yr deal if his play continues to spiral down!


The cap will never go to 88mil next year, mark my words on that.
 
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