Forums/Armchair-GM

Revised relook at this team

Created by: Lights
Initial Creation Date: Mar 12, 2020
Published: Mar 12 at 6:47 pm
Team: 2020-21 Buffalo Sabres
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
Kahun, Dominik3$2,666,666
Lazar, Curtis2$850,000
Mittelstadt, Casey2$950,000
Olofsson, Victor2$3,500,000
Reinhart, Sam6$6,750,000
Ullmark, Linus2$2,500,000
Thompson, Tage2$950,000
Pilut, Lawrence2$950,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
Haula, Erik3$4,500,000
Clifford, Kyle2$2,000,000
Trades
BUF
  1. Johnsson, Andreas
TOR
  1. Montour, Brandon [RFA Rights]
BUF
  1. Allen, Jake
STL
  1. Hutton, Carter
Additional Details:
Add in some mid tier prospect.
Buyouts
  • Cody Hodgson: $791,667
  • Christian Ehrhoff: $0
DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
2020
BUF
BUF
BUF
BUF
BUF
DAL
2021
BUF
BUF
BUF
BUF
BUF
2022
BUF
BUF
BUF
BUF
BUF
BUF
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES BONUSESCAP SPACE
21$84,000,000$77,528,333$0$3,487,500$6,471,667
Left WingCenterRight Wing
BUF
Skinner, Jeff
$9,000,000
LW, RW
NMC
UFA - 7
BUF
Eichel, Jack
$10,000,000
C
UFA - 6
BUF
Olofsson, Victor
$3,500,000
LW, RW
RFA
TOR
Johnsson, Andreas
$3,400,000
LW
UFA - 3
Haula, Erik
$4,500,000
C, LW
UFA
BUF
Reinhart, Sam
$6,750,000
RW, C
RFA
BUF
Kahun, Dominik
$2,666,666
LW, RW, C
RFA
BUF
Mittelstadt, Casey
$950,000
C
RFA
BUF
Johansson, Marcus
$4,500,000
C, LW, RW
NTC
UFA - 1
Clifford, Kyle
$2,000,000
LW
UFA
BUF
Asplund, Rasmus
$845,000
C, LW
RFA - 1
BUF
Okposo, Kyle
$6,000,000
RW
NTC
UFA - 3
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
BUF
Dahlin, Rasmus
$925,000
LD
RFA - 1
BUF
Miller, Colin
$3,875,000
RD
UFA - 2
STL
Allen, Jake
$4,350,000
G
UFA - 1
BUF
McCabe, Jake
$2,850,000
LD
UFA - 1
BUF
Jokiharju, Henri
$925,000
RD
RFA - 1
BUF
Ullmark, Linus
$2,500,000
G
RFA
BUF
Pilut, Lawrence
$950,000
LD
RFA
BUF
Ristolainen, Rasmus
$5,400,000
RD
UFA - 2
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
BUF
Lazar, Curtis
$850,000
C, RW
RFA

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Mar 12 at 7:05
#1
Leafs GM v4
Joined: Feb 2018
Posts: 3,943
Likes: 1,216
That doesnt get you johnsson. I also dont see the reason for them to get Allen, there are better options out there imo. The depth on this team isnt great and it's got a ton of wasted cap space, having 6 mil in cap space is extremely stupid
Mar 12 at 7:13
#2
Thread Starter
Martynas
Joined: Apr 2018
Posts: 4,594
Likes: 1,138
Quoting: Jack_
That doesnt get you johnsson. I also dont see the reason for them to get Allen, there are better options out there imo. The depth on this team isnt great and it's got a ton of wasted cap space, having 6 mil in cap space is extremely stupid


Allen has a pretty solid season and I don't think Khudobin or Halak would sign in Buffalo. Having some cap space left over tends to be beneficial.
Skyraider112 liked this.
Mar 12 at 7:34
#3
Sabres are elite
Joined: Jun 2017
Posts: 3,355
Likes: 821
Quoting: Jack_
That doesnt get you johnsson. I also dont see the reason for them to get Allen, there are better options out there imo. The depth on this team isnt great and it's got a ton of wasted cap space, having 6 mil in cap space is extremely stupid


You right, that gets us Johnsson+
Jamiepo liked this.
Mar 12 at 7:39
#4
First NY Then LA
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 10,537
Likes: 4,631
If you could attract Haula, he would be a good stopgap #2C until either Cozens or Mittelstadt is ready to take over that slot. Your top 5 first unit (Olofsson-Eichel-Reinhart; Dahlin-Jokiharju) is good enough to play with anyone, and with Johnson and Samuelsson coming up behind McCabe and Pilut, the left side of your defense is pretty well set for the foreseeable future. You should get a first-class forward with your first pick in June (maybe Raymond or Holtz even if you don't win one of the lotteries) and there's enough depth in this draft that your second may make an impact, too. You're right to focus on the goaltending. I still think that Botterill should move heaven and earth to get another second this June.
Lights liked this.
Mar 12 at 8:41
#5
Leafs GM v4
Joined: Feb 2018
Posts: 3,943
Likes: 1,216
Quoting: Skyraider112
You right, that gets us Johnsson+


Ooof a fringe 3rd pairing defenseman for a top 6 winger. That is an extremely hot take. I would like to counter with ceci for kahun because that seems to be fair
Mar 12 at 10:38
#6
Joined: Feb 2020
Posts: 96
Likes: 37
Quoting: Jack_
Ooof a fringe 3rd pairing defenseman for a top 6 winger. That is an extremely hot take. I would like to counter with ceci for kahun because that seems to be fair


Since when is a .5 ppg player on an offensive juggernaut a top 6 winger? Not even taking into account how you feel about Montour, everyone can value anyone however, but what justification does Johnsson get that classification at 25 years old and 120 gp.
Mar 12 at 10:41
#7
get off my lawn...
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 12,391
Likes: 6,277
Quoting: Skyraider112
You right, that gets us Johnsson+


Just swinging by to apologize for leafs fans... I’m sorry...
Mar 12 at 10:59
#8
Leafs GM v4
Joined: Feb 2018
Posts: 3,943
Likes: 1,216
Edited Mar 12 at 11:06
Quoting: Jamiepo
Just swinging by to apologize for leafs fans... I’m sorry...


You should check out Montour's stats first
Mar 12 at 11:06
#9
Leafs GM v4
Joined: Feb 2018
Posts: 3,943
Likes: 1,216
Quoting: Lsendel3
Since when is a .5 ppg player on an offensive juggernaut a top 6 winger? Not even taking into account how you feel about Montour, everyone can value anyone however, but what justification does Johnsson get that classification at 25 years old and 120 gp.


A player capable of putting up 50 points who plays in all situations and is a possession monster should be a top 6 winger. Hes more of a complimentary player but bes still good. I 100% agree with what you're saying if you include this season but it's been a waste of a season for him, he hasn't been healthy yet. If you dont count this season hes got 46 points in 82 games.
Mar 13 at 11:34
#10
Joined: Feb 2020
Posts: 96
Likes: 37
Quoting: Jack_
A player capable of putting up 50 points who plays in all situations and is a possession monster should be a top 6 winger. Hes more of a complimentary player but bes still good. I 100% agree with what you're saying if you include this season but it's been a waste of a season for him, he hasn't been healthy yet. If you dont count this season hes got 46 points in 82 games.


And one statistical season where he got 46 points again playing on the offensive juggernaut Maple Leafs isn't exactly spectacular. This season he's still scoring at the same clip as last year. The issue is, I'd agree with you if he wasn't 25 about to be 26. Not that it's a bad thing, or he's a bad player. It's there's not that much of a sample size to suggest that he'd be more then what he is on the TML now, which is a good/decent top 9/third line winger that can play 2nd line in a pinch. I need to see more then a rookie season of 46 points at 24 to call him a legit top 6 winger. If you disagree that's fine, but your argument of calling Montour a fringe third pairing d-man while calling him a 2nd line winger is... just not great and reeks of homerism.
Jack_ liked this.
Mar 13 at 12:05
#11
get off my lawn...
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 12,391
Likes: 6,277
Quoting: Jack_
A player capable of putting up 50 points who plays in all situations and is a possession monster should be a top 6 winger. Hes more of a complimentary player but bes still good. I 100% agree with what you're saying if you include this season but it's been a waste of a season for him, he hasn't been healthy yet. If you dont count this season hes got 46 points in 82 games.


All situations? Except last 2 minutes, PK and PP1....

Don’t get me wrong Johnsson is a good player. Skilled and tenacious. Does buffalo need a top 6 LW? No... buffalo gave up two firsts for montour (guhle + 1st). I think Toronto would need to add a bit maybe a 2nd or 3rd just to make the value close, in terms of team needs this doesn’t fit what buffalo needs 2C and top 6 RHW. Montour is the type of two way guy that would fit well in the leafs system. His advanced stats don’t tell the whole story.

Rielly-Holl
Muzzin-montour
Sandin-Dermott
Marincin-Liljegren
Rosen

Would give us a stable D core for next season.
Mar 13 at 12:13
#12
Leafs GM v4
Joined: Feb 2018
Posts: 3,943
Likes: 1,216
Quoting: Jamiepo
All situations? Except last 2 minutes, PK and PP1....

Don’t get me wrong Johnsson is a good player. Skilled and tenacious. Does buffalo need a top 6 LW? No... buffalo gave up two firsts for montour (guhle + 1st). I think Toronto would need to add a bit maybe a 2nd or 3rd just to make the value close, in terms of team needs this doesn’t fit what buffalo needs 2C and top 6 RHW. Montour is the type of two way guy that would fit well in the leafs system. His advanced stats don’t tell the whole story.

Rielly-Holl
Muzzin-montour
Sandin-Dermott
Marincin-Liljegren
Rosen

Would give us a stable D core for next season.


He isnt good defensively or offensively though. Hes been extremely lucky and the only thing hes good at is his transition play, even those numbers arent earth shattering. You kind of have to look at his advanced stats because that's the beat way to evaluate players, everyone's eyes lie and evaluating someone based off their talent is also not a good idea. Galchenyuk is very talented but not an nhl player. You can evaluate prospects based off talent but an nhl player whose never had good nhl numbers and isnt going to get any better shouldn't be given the benefit of the doubt.

Johnsson was a very good pk'er in the AHL, hes just never been given a chance because of how many the leafs have, hes also a good netfront/slot guy on the pp but hes not better then JT, Kadri or Nylander who take up those spots
Mar 13 at 12:22
#13
get off my lawn...
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 12,391
Likes: 6,277
Quoting: Lsendel3
And one statistical season where he got 46 points again playing on the offensive juggernaut Maple Leafs isn't exactly spectacular. This season he's still scoring at the same clip as last year. The issue is, I'd agree with you if he wasn't 25 about to be 26. Not that it's a bad thing, or he's a bad player. It's there's not that much of a sample size to suggest that he'd be more then what he is on the TML now, which is a good/decent top 9/third line winger that can play 2nd line in a pinch. I need to see more then a rookie season of 46 points at 24 to call him a legit top 6 winger. If you disagree that's fine, but your argument of calling Montour a fringe third pairing d-man while calling him a 2nd line winger is... just not great and reeks of homerism.

Johnsson is a low end 1lw or a high end 2lw. But you have oloffsson, skinner and a few failed Centre prospects to fill in for injuries. Certainly not a pressing issue like 2c and 2rw.
Mar 13 at 12:26
#14
get off my lawn...
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 12,391
Likes: 6,277
Quoting: Jack_
He isnt good defensively or offensively though. Hes been extremely lucky and the only thing hes good at is his transition play, even those numbers arent earth shattering. You kind of have to look at his advanced stats because that's the beat way to evaluate players, everyone's eyes lie and evaluating someone based off their talent is also not a good idea. Galchenyuk is very talented but not an nhl player. You can evaluate prospects based off talent but an nhl player whose never had good nhl numbers and isnt going to get any better shouldn't be given the benefit of the doubt.

Johnsson was a very good pk'er in the AHL, hes just never been given a chance because of how many the leafs have, hes also a good netfront/slot guy on the pp but hes not better then JT, Kadri or Nylander who take up those spots


Montour is good offensively and defensively... just not great at either. Which is what Toronto needs. Sure they would love to have someone great both ways but that costs.
Mar 13 at 12:26
#15
Leafs GM v4
Joined: Feb 2018
Posts: 3,943
Likes: 1,216
Quoting: Lsendel3
And one statistical season where he got 46 points again playing on the offensive juggernaut Maple Leafs isn't exactly spectacular. This season he's still scoring at the same clip as last year. The issue is, I'd agree with you if he wasn't 25 about to be 26. Not that it's a bad thing, or he's a bad player. It's there's not that much of a sample size to suggest that he'd be more then what he is on the TML now, which is a good/decent top 9/third line winger that can play 2nd line in a pinch. I need to see more then a rookie season of 46 points at 24 to call him a legit top 6 winger. If you disagree that's fine, but your argument of calling Montour a fringe third pairing d-man while calling him a 2nd line winger is... just not great and reeks of homerism.


He definitely wont ever be a true play driver in the top 6 but if he were to be with good players like eichel, reinhart, MoJo, Skinner or olofsson he would make them better. Hes skilled enough that defenders have to watch him and that opens up ice for his linemates.
Looking purely at his point totals he isnt a top 6 forward but but most of his points are at 5v5. He didnt get a whole lot of PP time and when he did it was on PP2: that unit was pretty much nylander setting up Gardiner and Ennis so it was destined to fail. Hes a talented net front guy who could easily take Ristos spot on the pp and put up an extra 15-20 points that he wouldn't be getting in TO. Now your looking at him going from ~45 points all the way to ~60 points. His trade value has gone down because hes had some significant injuries but I'm not a fan of montour
Mar 13 at 12:31
#16
Joined: Feb 2020
Posts: 96
Likes: 37
Quoting: Jamiepo
Johnsson is a low end 1lw or a high end 2lw. But you have oloffsson, skinner and a few failed Centre prospects to fill in for injuries. Certainly not a pressing issue like 2c and 2rw.


IMO, which doesn't mean much, he may have the makings of that, but isn't there yet, and because of age has to progress much quicker then a normal prospect. Can it be done? Absolutely. Is he there now? I guess I don't see it. I called him a middle 6er essentially, Don't really think we're talking too far off, but disagree slightly.
Mar 13 at 12:35
#17
Joined: Feb 2020
Posts: 96
Likes: 37
Quoting: Jack_
He definitely wont ever be a true play driver in the top 6 but if he were to be with good players like eichel, reinhart, MoJo, Skinner or olofsson he would make them better. Hes skilled enough that defenders have to watch him and that opens up ice for his linemates.
Looking purely at his point totals he isnt a top 6 forward but but most of his points are at 5v5. He didnt get a whole lot of PP time and when he did it was on PP2: that unit was pretty much nylander setting up Gardiner and Ennis so it was destined to fail. Hes a talented net front guy who could easily take Ristos spot on the pp and put up an extra 15-20 points that he wouldn't be getting in TO. Now your looking at him going from ~45 points all the way to ~60 points. His trade value has gone down because hes had some significant injuries but I'm not a fan of montour


I see him as a good middle six floater. Can he play on line two and not look outta place? Absolutely. If you're a contender, you prolly want him on line three. Probably even be the best player on that third line. So it's not really a knock on him, just how I see it. Like I said in the other post, he can take the next step into bonefide top 6 for sure, but needs to rebound off this not so great year for sure.
Jack_ liked this.
Mar 13 at 12:35
#18
Sabres are elite
Joined: Jun 2017
Posts: 3,355
Likes: 821
Quoting: Jamiepo
Just swinging by to apologize for leafs fans... I’m sorry...


Accepted. Wow leafs and sabres fans making amends, never thought it would happen on CF
Mar 13 at 12:37
#19
Leafs GM v4
Joined: Feb 2018
Posts: 3,943
Likes: 1,216
Quoting: Jamiepo
Montour is good offensively and defensively... just not great at either. Which is what Toronto needs. Sure they would love to have someone great both ways but that costs.


His xG for and against arent good at all. His GAR is so much higher then his xGAR meaning hes been extremely lucky this season and hes also got a high PDO. At evolving hockey they show his as not good offensively or defensively with a bad penalty differential. Micah blake Mccurdy's model shows us that hes very bad on special teams (both PP and PK). I'm not basing it off of his trade value with Johnsson at this point, montour just isnt very good in general. Paying him more then 2.5 million is a big mistake and it looks like he will make around 5.

I'm sure he'd be an alright #4 to play beside muzzin but the leafs would be far better off if they were to add a pick and something else to johnsson and land Severson. Holl is just as good with muzzin and costs way less.

I'm trying and have been trying for a while to find something that montour is good at. Besides hes transition skill he has nothing imo. What do you see in him?
Mar 13 at 1:42
#20
get off my lawn...
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 12,391
Likes: 6,277
Quoting: Jack_
His xG for and against arent good at all. His GAR is so much higher then his xGAR meaning hes been extremely lucky this season and hes also got a high PDO. At evolving hockey they show his as not good offensively or defensively with a bad penalty differential. Micah blake Mccurdy's model shows us that hes very bad on special teams (both PP and PK). I'm not basing it off of his trade value with Johnsson at this point, montour just isnt very good in general. Paying him more then 2.5 million is a big mistake and it looks like he will make around 5.

I'm sure he'd be an alright #4 to play beside muzzin but the leafs would be far better off if they were to add a pick and something else to johnsson and land Severson. Holl is just as good with muzzin and costs way less.

I'm trying and have been trying for a while to find something that montour is good at. Besides hes transition skill he has nothing imo. What do you see in him?


I agree about severson. Would take him over montour but it’s not as simple as here take this and give us severson. Would want a Dman going back. I think I package involving Dermott and Johnsson could maybe be worked out.
Jack_ liked this.
Mar 13 at 2:09
#21
Leafs GM v4
Joined: Feb 2018
Posts: 3,943
Likes: 1,216
Quoting: Jamiepo
I agree about severson. Would take him over montour but it’s not as simple as here take this and give us severson. Would want a Dman going back. I think I package involving Dermott and Johnsson could maybe be worked out.


I would do that without thinking about it. Unless they plan on trading rielly (which I still think is a good idea) the left side is too deep. Rielly-Severson, Muzzin-Holl and sandin-liljegren is fantastic.
Jamiepo liked this.
 
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