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making roster changes based on advanced stats only

Created by: bunzy1034
Team: 2019-20 Winnipeg Jets
Initial Creation Date: Mar. 24, 2020
Published: Mar. 24, 2020
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Byan Little would be the teams number one center, however I am not going to count him as he hardly has played this year,

top 10 jets players this year according to advanced stats:
1.Bryan Little (injured)
2. Dylan DeMelo
3. Nik Ehlers
4.Andrew Copp
5.Jack Roslovic
6.Blake Wheeler
7.Neal Pionk
8.Carl Dahlstrom
9.Dmitry Kulikov
10.Mathieu Perrault

I want to know how much you believe advanced analytics tell who is and is not a good player.
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2020
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2021
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2022
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
28$81,500,000$74,562,857$0$380,000$6,937,143
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$894,166$894,166 (Performance Bonus$212,500$212K)
C, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$2,280,000$2,280,000
C, LW, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$6,000,000$6,000,000
RW, LW
UFA - 6
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$4,125,000$4,125,000
LW, RW, C
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$3,850,000$3,850,000
C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$8,250,000$8,250,000
RW
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$741,667$741,667
RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$6,125,000$6,125,000
C
UFA - 5
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$767,500$767,500 (Performance Bonus$107,500$108K)
LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$7,142,857$7,142,857
LW
UFA - 7
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$2,916,667$2,916,667
C
UFA - 2
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$4,995,000$4,995,000
C, RW, LW
UFA - 2
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
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$850,000$850,000
LD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$900,000$900,000
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$6,166,667$6,166,667
G
UFA - 5
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$4,333,333$4,333,333
LD/RD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$3,000,000$3,000,000
RD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$1,225,000$1,225,000
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$3,150,000$3,150,000
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$775,000$775,000
RD
UFA - 2
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$750,000$750,000
C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$5,291,667$5,291,667
C, RW
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$775,000$775,000 (Performance Bonus$60,000$60K)
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$7,600,000$7,600,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$700,000$700,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$700,000$700,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$700,000$700,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$1,000,000$1,000,000
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$750,000$750,000
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$700,000$700,000
LD
UFA - 1

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Mar. 24, 2020 at 4:24 p.m.
#1
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and this is why I hate advanced stats without context.
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Mar. 24, 2020 at 4:26 p.m.
#2
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Cold spaghetti
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Quoting: Wqrrior
and this is why I hate advanced stats without context.


This is mainly based off of the corsi% stat
Mar. 24, 2020 at 4:26 p.m.
#3
Sam
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“Advanced Stats” is a very broad term, which metric are you looking at to determine this list?
Mar. 24, 2020 at 4:27 p.m.
#4
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Quoting: STLBlues17
“Advanced Stats” is a very broad term, which metric are you looking at to determine this list?


Mostly Corsi, with a little bit of other stats like the WAR metrics

Edit: I don't believe at all this is how you tell a good player from a bad for example Mcdavid has a corsi% of 48.2% which is about average. He is obviously not an average player. I just wanted to see who and who do not have good advance numbers, which I kind of knew already before looking
Mar. 24, 2020 at 4:29 p.m.
#5
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Pionk's analytics are brutal lol, so are Eakin's, Copp is slightly better than Scheif, Ehlers and DeMelo are 1-2, Perrault's and JoMo's are Ok... Nobody else is worth **** tho (maybe Kulikov, but ehh) except Helle obv (I mean Laine and Connor ig... But they're hella overrated by non analytics users... They're middle 6 wingers)
Mar. 24, 2020 at 4:31 p.m.
#6
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Quoting: AFOX10900
Pionk's analytics are brutal lol, so are Eakin's, Copp is slightly better than Scheif, Ehlers and DeMelo are 1-2, Perrault's and JoMo's are Ok... Nobody else is worth **** tho (maybe Kulikov, but ehh) except Helle obv (I mean Laine and Connor ig... But they're hella overrated by non analytics users... They're middle 6 wingers)


you're calling Laine and Connor middle six wingers?

advanced stats compare to drinking too much alcohol - they make people think weird and say weird things.
Mar. 24, 2020 at 4:31 p.m.
#7
Sam
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Quoting: bunzy1034
Mostly Corsi, with a little bit of other stats


Oh, by itself corsi isn’t really a useful stat imo, only slightly better than +/-. I think stuff like RAPM/WAR/Gamescore is a better measure of who’s better or more effective.
Mar. 24, 2020 at 4:33 p.m.
#8
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Quoting: AFOX10900
Pionk's analytics are brutal lol, so are Eakin's, Copp is slightly better than Scheif, Ehlers and DeMelo are 1-2, Perrault's and JoMo's are Ok... Nobody else is worth **** tho (maybe Kulikov, but ehh) except Helle obv (I mean Laine and Connor ig... But they're hella overrated by non analytics users... They're middle 6 wingers)


Ehlers is the jets best forward this year from overall from the eye test and advanced numbers. A lot of the jets dman beside DeMelo have bad advanced numbers, pionk atleast has a 50% corsi which is the best besides DeMelo
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Mar. 24, 2020 at 4:38 p.m.
#9
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Quoting: Wqrrior
and this is why I hate advanced stats without context.


See I love this bc I'd bet you couldn't name more than 3 meaningful pieces of context that actually apply to this scenario (or just in general lol)
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Mar. 24, 2020 at 4:41 p.m.
#10
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Quoting: AFOX10900
See I love this bc I'd bet you couldn't name more than 3 meaningful pieces of context that actually apply to this scenario (or just in general lol)


Look at the lines... the best players are in the bottom six. People can't view advanced stats as the end all indicator of how good a player is. They are useful in providing some insight on a player, but certainly not the main judge of a roster. This thread, whether intentional or not, shows that basing a roster strictly on advanced stats makes the team worse than in general.
The term context here implies that nothing other than advanced stats built this roster. Adding the context would be the sense of logic and general stats that are typically used to construct the typical team.
Mar. 24, 2020 at 4:41 p.m.
#11
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Cold spaghetti
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Quoting: AFOX10900
See I love this bc I'd bet you couldn't name more than 3 meaningful pieces of context that actually apply to this scenario (or just in general lol)


Makes me really wished we kept guys like Joel Armia and Ben Chiarot frown
Mar. 24, 2020 at 4:43 p.m.
#12
Sam
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Quoting: Wqrrior
Look at the lines... the best players are in the bottom six. People can't view advanced stats as the end all indicator of how good a player is. They are useful in providing some insight on a player, but certainly not the main judge of a roster. This thread, whether intentional or not, shows that basing a roster strictly on advanced stats makes the team worse than in general.
The term context here implies that nothing other than advanced stats built this roster. Adding the context would be the sense of logic and general stats that are typically used to construct the typical team.


Maybe if the Jets players were as good as everyone thinks they are they wouldn’t have to rely on MVP level goaltending to squeak into the playoffs.
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Mar. 24, 2020 at 4:45 p.m.
#13
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Quoting: STLBlues17
Maybe if the Jets players were as good as everyone thinks they are they wouldn’t have to rely on MVP level goaltending to squeak into the playoffs.


From a jets fan I can tell you with 100% dignity that if it wasn't for hellebuyck we would be competing for a top 3 draft pick
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Mar. 24, 2020 at 4:46 p.m.
#14
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Quoting: Wqrrior
Look at the lines... the best players are in the bottom six. People can't view advanced stats as the end all indicator of how good a player is. They are useful in providing some insight on a player, but certainly not the main judge of a roster. This thread, whether intentional or not, shows that basing a roster strictly on advanced stats makes the team worse than in general.
The term context here implies that nothing other than advanced stats built this roster. Adding the context would be the sense of logic and general stats that are typically used to construct the typical team.


If I had to rank Jets players solely of analytics it'd be
Demelo
Ehlers
Copp
Scheif
Perreault
JoMo/Ehlers/Connor
Wheeler... That's their 4/5 of their best forwards in the top 6... Now please tell me about this magical context that is so much more impactful to analytics than points... Especially when analytics already tell so much more about a players whole game than points...
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Mar. 24, 2020 at 4:47 p.m.
#15
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Quoting: bunzy1034
Makes me really wished we kept guys like Joel Armia and Ben Chiarot frown


Chiarot hasn't been that impressive this yr after the first month or two, but yeah, Armia would be really nice RN... (I mean so would Chiarot on this defense lol)
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Mar. 24, 2020 at 4:47 p.m.
#16
Just Keep Swimming
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Edited Mar. 24, 2020 at 4:53 p.m.
Quoting: STLBlues17
Oh, by itself corsi isn’t really a useful stat imo, only slightly better than +/-. I think stuff like RAPM/WAR/Gamescore is a better measure of who’s better or more effective.


Eh, corsi against points has an r^2 of something like .142 so it is still FAR better than something like plus minus, but yeah unadjusted stats in isolation don't tell you much and are mostly responsible for uniformed people saying analytics are stupid
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Mar. 24, 2020 at 4:48 p.m.
#17
Sam
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Quoting: bunzy1034
From a jets fan I can tell you with 100% dignity that if it wasn't for hellebuyck we would be competing for a top 3 draft pick


They’ve got shooting talent as well which masks a lot of issues, but yeah their 5v5 shot/chance rates are in Red Wings territory
Mar. 24, 2020 at 4:48 p.m.
#18
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Quoting: STLBlues17
Maybe if the Jets players were as good as everyone thinks they are they wouldn’t have to rely on MVP level goaltending to squeak into the playoffs.


With the defensive collapse and Buf not returning to the lineup, most hockey fans, including jets fans themselves accepted that this team was no longer a competitor. The fact that they are close, while heavily reliant on goaltending, is more a surprise than an expectation. I could care less about advanced stats. I see a 70 point player on the 4th line. The dude isn't expected to be elite in all areas of the ice - he is there to put the puck in the net, and he is doing that. Same story with Scheifele.

We all know that this team is running an AHL defense outside their top two guys, and they have experienced injury problems all year on their bottom six.

Laine is certainly overrated, but he is a top 6 forward, as are the rest of their top end guys.

My point is, advanced stats have these guys on the bottom of the lineup, which is ridiculous. Advanced stats are a pointer, not a deciding factor to how good a player is.
Mar. 24, 2020 at 4:52 p.m.
#19
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Quoting: AFOX10900
If I had to rank Jets players solely of analytics it'd be
Demelo
Ehlers
Copp
Scheif
Perreault
JoMo/Ehlers/Connor
Wheeler... That's their 4/5 of their best forwards in the top 6... Now please tell me about this magical context that is so much more impactful to analytics than points... Especially when analytics already tell so much more about a players whole game than points...


Some guys exist on the roster for the lone purpose of providing points. Everyone has their own role on the team. Copp does his best work on the third line - that's his role, and that's where he is best. Just because advanced stats label him as one of the best Jets does not mean he should magically be running the top line.
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Mar. 24, 2020 at 4:54 p.m.
#20
Kings v5 GM
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The reason you have they best players so low in the lineup is because of their time on ice. I guess you are rating their stats just off corsi most of their forwards are fantastic and their defense is absolutely horrible. The reason they are on for so many shots against is because they arent able to exit the defensive zone leading to more time in the defensive zone meaning more shots against. Sure the forwards are to blame a little bit but it's mostly because they have below average defenseman and those defenseman are playing way over their heads. If they had better defenseman to play with their individual and team corsi would go up.

Now if we go back to what I was saying about TOI we see that their top forwards are playing against other teams top forwards and they are still on the ice with their ****ty defenseman. They will have a worse corsi because they are playing the tougher minutes whereas the bottom 6 guys are playing less minutes and those minutes are against opposing bottom 6s most of the time. If the bottom 6 guys were to play more minutes they would be on for more shots against results in a lower corsi%
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Mar. 24, 2020 at 4:54 p.m.
#21
Sam
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Quoting: Wqrrior
With the defensive collapse and Buf not returning to the lineup, most hockey fans, including jets fans themselves accepted that this team was no longer a competitor. The fact that they are close, while heavily reliant on goaltending, is more a surprise than an expectation. I could care less about advanced stats. I see a 70 point player on the 4th line. The dude isn't expected to be elite in all areas of the ice - he is there to put the puck in the net, and he is doing that. Same story with Scheifele.

We all know that this team is running an AHL defense outside their top two guys, and they have experienced injury problems all year on their bottom six.

Laine is certainly overrated, but he is a top 6 forward, as are the rest of their top end guys.


Traditionally offense oriented players are the ones that play “top-6” minutes, and I think that’s the way it should be, but it doesn’t necessarily mean their impact is that of one of the top-6 forwards on the team. Connor/Laine/Scheifele are three good examples considering they’re obviously top-6 talents, but they don’t contribute to winning hockey games as much as someone like Ehlers who’s also great defensively. Note: I think this is just a random bad year for Scheifele considering he’s been good defensively in the past.
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Mar. 24, 2020 at 4:55 p.m.
#22
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As I’ve told others... you shouldn’t just use advanced stats to tell if a player is good or not. It should be a combination of both advanced stats and the eye test.... it shouldn’t be all of one or the other...
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Mar. 24, 2020 at 4:56 p.m.
#23
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Cold spaghetti
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Quoting: Wqrrior
Some guys exist on the roster for the lone purpose of providing points. Everyone has their own role on the team. Copp does his best work on the third line - that's his role, and that's where he is best. Just because advanced stats label him as one of the best Jets does not mean he should magically be running the top line.


No Scheifele is still the jets best centerman, just trying to shine a little light on players who go unnoticed
Mar. 24, 2020 at 4:57 p.m.
#24
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Quoting: STLBlues17
Traditionally offense oriented players are the ones that play “top-6” minutes, and I think that’s the way it should be, but it doesn’t necessarily mean their impact is that of one of the top-6 forwards on the team. Connor/Laine/Scheifele are three good examples considering they’re obviously top-6 talents, but they don’t contribute to winning hockey games as much as someone like Ehlers who’s great defensively. Note: I think this is just a random bad year for Scheifele consumers he’s been good defensively in the past.


Thank you. This is the logic I've been waiting for.

It's very difficult to construct a team entirely off offensive AND defensive responsible players. The jets aren't going to bench, trade, give up on or scratch Laine only because his defensive game sucks if he can score as well.
Classic example is Dzingel. A guy who can be great in the offensive zone, but otherwise is useless. This year he couldn't score, therefore he has been scratched a number of times.
This is the context that advanced stats need. They give an indicator of who is good where, and allow that player to be put in positions where they have the best impact.
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Mar. 24, 2020 at 4:57 p.m.
#25
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Quoting: Ajp_18
As I’ve told others... you shouldn’t just use advanced stats to tell if a player is good or not. It should be a combination of both advanced stats and the eye test.... it shouldn’t be all of one or the other...


Essentially a more simple and straightforward way of putting what I've been trying to say.
 
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