Flat cap is worst case scenario

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Created by: SammyT_51

Team: 2020-21 Toronto Maple Leafs

Initial Creation Date: Apr. 4, 2020

Published: Apr. 4, 2020

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

AT WORST CAP STAYS THE SAME! But it would have consequences on next season and the cap raise after that. This would be spread out for multiple seasons to really get back where it was. But there wont be cap lowered. Thats just ridiculous. Remember, 70/82 games were played of regular season, basically meaning that 2/8 months of season would be missing. And I must say, its the important part of the year for revenue since its the playoffs. At worst, NHL would lose 50% of revenue from this year. Which means cap should go up by 50% of what it would normally go up by if my calculations are correct. Also.. as for next season.. there would be lower revenue even if full season occured due to people dealing with financial troubles caused by pandemic. NHL might lose 1/4 of revenue next year if its fully played imo due to that exact reason. Also.. why would NHL want to throw money away on CBOs?

What would be logical best case scenario..
50% of expected cap raise for 20/21 (circa 1.5-2 million instead of 3-4, which would mean cap of 83-83.5M)
75% of expected cap raise for 21/22 (which considering Seattle expansion and new TV deal would mean 4-5M raise instead of 5-6M raise, cap at 88M)
100% of expected cap raise for 22/23 (new TV deal, Seattle expansion and full revenue would mean 5-6M raise again this year, 93M cap and then the raise slows down to about 3M raise per year)

realistic worst case scenario? Here..
0% of expected cap raise for 20/21 (cap stays at 81.5M)
75% of expected cap raise for 21/22 (which again means 4-5M instead of 5-6M, cap at around 86M)
100% of expected cap raise for 22/23 (add 5-6M to 86M and you have around 91-92M cap for 22/23 at worst)

logical scenario is the one Im doing RN

Free Agent Signings

RESERVE LIST	YEARS	CAP HIT
Stotts, Riley	3	$925,000
Bouthillier, Zachary	3	$925,000
Holmberg, Pontus	3	$925,000
Loponen, Kalle	3	$925,000
Kokkonen, Mikko	3	$925,000

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Åberg, Pontus	1	$700,000
Veronneau, Max	1	$700,000
Gauthier, Frédérik	1	$700,000
Kivihalme, Teemu	1	$700,000
Brooks, Adam	2	$750,000
Bracco, Jeremy	2	$750,000
Stecher, Troy	3	$2,750,000
Mikheyev, Ilya	3	$2,250,000

UFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Spezza, Jason	1	$700,000
Clifford, Kyle	3	$1,950,000
Richardson, Brad	1	$700,000

CREATED		YEARS	CAP HIT
Turkulainen, Jerry		2	$800,000
Barabanov, Alexander		1	$925,000

Trades

Additional Details:

Similarly good young top-4 Dmen for each other.

Buyouts

Mikhail Grabovski: $0

Retained Salary Transactions

Phil Kessel: $1,200,000 (15%)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2020
2021
2022

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
22	$83,000,000	$82,974,783	$0	$637,500	$25,217

Roster

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Hyman, Zach $2,250,000$2,250,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 1	Matthews, Auston $11,640,250$11,640,250 C UFA - 4	Marner, Mitchell $10,903,000$10,903,000 RW UFA - 5
Nylander, William $6,962,366$6,962,366 RW UFA - 4	Tavares, John $11,000,000$11,000,000 C, LW NMC UFA - 5	Barabanov, Alexander $925,000$925,000
Mikheyev, Ilya $2,250,000$2,250,000 LW, RW UFA - 2	Kerfoot, Alexander $3,500,000$3,500,000 LW, C, RW UFA - 3	Kapanen, Kasperi $3,200,000$3,200,000 RW UFA - 2
Clifford, Kyle $1,950,000$1,950,000 LW UFA - 2	Engvall, Pierre $1,250,000$1,250,000 RW, LW UFA - 2	Spezza, Jason $700,000$700,000 C, RW UFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Rielly, Morgan $5,000,000$5,000,000 LD M-NTC UFA - 2	Jokiharju, Henri $925,000$925,000 ($637,500$638K) RD RFA - 1	Andersen, Frederik $5,000,000$5,000,000 G M-NTC UFA - 1
Muzzin, Jake $5,625,000$5,625,000 LD NMC UFA - 4	Stecher, Troy $2,750,000$2,750,000 RD UFA - 2	Campbell, Jack $1,650,000$1,650,000 G UFA - 2
Sandin, Rasmus $894,167$894,167 LD UFA - 2	Holl, Justin $2,000,000$2,000,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 3

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Richardson, Brad $700,000$700,000 C UFA - 1
Marincin, Martin $700,000$700,000 LD UFA - 1

Special Teams

Power Play 1
Nylander, W.		Tavares, J.		Matthews, A.
	Rielly, M.		Marner, M.

Power Play 2
Kapanen, K.		Kerfoot, A.		Barabanov, A.
	Spezza, J.		Sandin, R.

Penalty Kill 1
	Engvall, P.	Hyman, Z.
	Muzzin, J.	Jokiharju, H.

Penalty Kill 2
	Mikheyev, I.	Kerfoot, A.
	Holl, J.	Stecher, T.

Apr. 4, 2020 at 1:52 p.m.

Salzy

Joined: Nov. 2018

Posts: 5,139

Likes: 5,943

I agree fully with the salary cap part, I can't see it going down in any scenario, the league didn't "lose" money they just didnt make as much, so it wont go up as much

Not sure of the VAN trade, but I can't see any world where the sabres trade Joki straight up for Dermott, Joki has much more value

Apr. 4, 2020 at 1:54 p.m.

Torontoleafs15

Banned

Joined: Apr. 2020

Posts: 1,893

Likes: 737

Umm Sabre fans are gonna come in and get mad about that Jokiharju trade

Apr. 4, 2020 at 1:54 p.m.

SammyT_51

Thread Starter

GM Hockeysaurus Rex

Joined: Jul. 2016

Posts: 14,152

Likes: 5,738

Quoting: Salzy

Sabres have like 5 right shot defensemen. Their value goes down automatically with that imo. Dermott is just as good as Joki and Buffalo can use a young top4 LHD who is very good defensively with guy like Risto, Miller or Montour.

Apr. 4, 2020 at 1:54 p.m.

SammyT_51

Thread Starter

GM Hockeysaurus Rex

Joined: Jul. 2016

Posts: 14,152

Likes: 5,738

Quoting: Torontoleafs15

Umm Sabre fans are gonna come in and get mad about that Jokiharju trade

Its fair. I dont see why they should but they certainly would.

Apr. 4, 2020 at 1:55 p.m.

Torontoleafs15

Banned

Joined: Apr. 2020

Posts: 1,893

Likes: 737

Quoting: SammyT_51

Its fair. I dont see why they should but they certainly would.

Dermott is better than Jokharju right now but he Joki has more potential. He is quite young so I don't see him being moved unless its a overpayment

Apr. 4, 2020 at 1:56 p.m.

Salzy

Joined: Nov. 2018

Posts: 5,139

Likes: 5,943

Quoting: SammyT_51

Yes they do, but Joki is the most valuable, and is surely more valuable than Dermott and it isnt that close in my eyes. The only one of those trades that make sense for BUF would be Miller, they'd be dumb to trade any of the others 1 for 1 for Dermott

Apr. 4, 2020 at 1:56 p.m.

SammyT_51

Thread Starter

GM Hockeysaurus Rex

Joined: Jul. 2016

Posts: 14,152

Likes: 5,738

Quoting: Torontoleafs15

Dermott is better than Jokharju right now but he Joki has more potential. He is quite young so I don't see him being moved unless its a overpayment

Well.. what is overpayment and what is a fair deal that works well for both sides.. dermie for joki is the second one.

Apr. 4, 2020 at 1:58 p.m.

SammyT_51

Thread Starter

GM Hockeysaurus Rex

Joined: Jul. 2016

Posts: 14,152

Likes: 5,738

Quoting: Salzy

That would make no ****ing sense for leafs. There is a reason I traded Dermott for Joki. Its fair value, both teams lose strenghts for weakness while not giving up more depth. Dermott for Joki is the only one trade between Buffalo and Toronto that makes sense imo. There could be picks exchanged maybe, maybe some lower league prospects but the core of it should be Dermott for Joki.

Apr. 4, 2020 at 2:16 p.m.

jmac490

Joined: Jan. 2017

Posts: 7,743

Likes: 1,922

Quoting: SammyT_51

Joki is a much better player than what he got initially in trade (Alex Nylander). Joki has the potential to be a Top 4 D, and I'd argue his potential may actually be higher (coming from a Leafs fan). I also quite like Dermott, but you would need to add a pick on Dermott for Joki (probably a 3rd rd pick or higher/other mid round pick).

I was going to argue that the Leafs lineup would be too offensive on the back end, but I could see those pairs working out well. Maybe have Sandin with Stecher as Muzzin and Holl played quite well together this year.

If I'm being nitpicky about the cap, I'd say you signed Mikheyev and and Clifford to contracts that are likely 500K too high.

Might be a bit too difficult for Dubas to juggle capwise if there is a flat cap, but hopefully the cap raises a bit for next season.

Apr. 4, 2020 at 4:13 p.m.

#10

Riley816

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 5,062

Likes: 2,008

Quoting: SammyT_51

Leafs have 5 LHD signed for next season. Rasmus Sandin's value goes way down???

Apr. 4, 2020 at 4:49 p.m.

#11

Ledge_And_Dairy

Joined: Jun. 2019

Posts: 38,288

Likes: 19,538

I would much rather have Jokiharju then Dermott. I think Dermotts ceiling is a solid #4 where Jokers is a #2. He was one of the main reasons Sweden won both iihf championships in 18/19.

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