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Proof that bad drafting leads to disaster part 1

Team: 2019-20 Buffalo Sabres
Initial Creation Date: Apr. 4, 2020
Published: Apr. 4, 2020
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
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I'll start this analysis in 2013.

In the 2013 draft, BUF took Ristolainen with the 1st overall pick. That's not a bad pick at all, I actually think he's underrated... the problem is that he plays on a bad team and has been doing exactly that for the entirety of his NHL career so far. He's a good number 2 who puts up solid offensive numbers but has defensive weaknesses. I'd see him play with a player like Ryan McDonagh. They also drafted JT Compher and Nikita Zadorov. Both were traded in the Ryan O'Reilly trade that sent the latter to BUF. They also drafted Cal Petersen but he signed in LA in 2017 sooooo... basically only 1 player is a NHL regular from that draft.

Moving on to 2014. Now from that draft come 2 of the 3-4 best forwards: Sam Reinhart, a first rounder, and Victor Olofsson, a 7th rounder (looks like a steal right now. But that's it. They also drafted Brendan Lemieux but he now plays in NYR and us NYR fans are happy with him)

Now comes 2015(AKA the Mc-Eichel tank)... they drafted Jack Eichel which currently looks like an amazing pick. He's established himself as one of the best centers in the whole league. They also drafted Brendon Guhle, who they traded to ANA in the Brendan Montour trade which happened last season.

2016 currently looks like a disaster. NO player drafted by them plays from them from that draft. Now, that's not entirely fair since they traded Alex Nylander to CHI for Henri Jokiharju which currently looks like a win for BUF. They also drafted Rasmus Asplund and he looks like a good prospect but it's time for him to show something, 2016 is already a while ago and he's a 2nd rounder from that draft. Next season will be a put up or shut up season for him IMO.

2017 currently looks like an ok draft. I mean, Middlestadt has been struggling a lot but Ukko-Pekka Lukkonen (still hate the guy as a Canadian #2019WJC) looks like a potential fringe starter at worst, and as a starter at best, so BUF did well there.

2018 looks like a great draft for them. They obviously got the biggest fish, being Rasmus Dahlin. They also drafted Mattias Samuelsson who currently looks like a great prospecy. He could play NHL minutes next season.



To recap, from the 2013 draft to the 2018 one (6 drafts), only FIVE players are NHL regulars. Obviously it's not fair to talk about the 2017 and 2018 draft because they are pretty recent ones, but still, the point stands, even having 7 players from 6 drafts who are NHL regulars is NOT good enough.


Over the same period, for instance, TOR has 7 regulars and 4 guys are are really close to being that.
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2020
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2021
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2022
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
25$81,500,000$77,596,667$0$7,107,500$3,903,333
Left WingCentreRight Wing
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$9,000,000$9,000,000
LW, RW
NMC
UFA - 8
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$10,000,000$10,000,000
C
UFA - 7
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$6,000,000$6,000,000
RW
M-NTC
UFA - 4
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$4,300,000$4,300,000
LW, RW
M-NTC
UFA - 1
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$4,500,000$4,500,000
LW, RW
M-NTC
UFA - 2
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$2,500,000$2,500,000
RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$3,500,000$3,500,000
LW, C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$1,600,000$1,600,000
LW, C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$3,650,000$3,650,000
RW
UFA - 1
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$2,275,000$2,275,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
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$1,550,000$1,550,000
C, LW
UFA - 1
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$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$2,850,000$3M)
LW, RW, C
UFA - 1
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$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$425,000$425K)
C
UFA - 1
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$767,500$767,500 (Performance Bonus$132,500$132K)
RW, LW
UFA - 1
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$700,000$700,000
RW, C
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
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$2,850,000$2,850,000
LD/RD
UFA - 2
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$5,400,000$5,400,000
RD
UFA - 3
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$2,750,000$2,750,000
G
UFA - 2
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$2,250,000$2,250,000
LD
UFA - 1
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$3,875,000$3,875,000
RD
UFA - 3
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$1,325,000$1,325,000
G
UFA - 1
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$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$425,000$425K)
LD
UFA - 1
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$3,387,500$3,387,500
RD
UFA - 1
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$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$2,850,000$3M)
LD/RD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$425,000$425K)
RD
RFA - 2

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Apr. 4, 2020 at 5:07 p.m.
#1
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I stopped reading after you said risto was a great pick and underrated. On another level svechnikov has been way better then dahlin. It's not even close
Apr. 4, 2020 at 5:13 p.m.
#2
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Quoting: Jack_
I stopped reading after you said risto was a great pick and underrated. On another level svechnikov has been way better then dahlin. It's not even close


Dude everyone gets batter after leaving Buffalo... Lehner, ROR, Kane, Ennis...

Risto would be a great d-man if he played with a shutdown d-man like McDonagh. Stop digging your head in the sand by thinking that just because he sucks defensively he's a bad d-man... we could say the same about Barrie
Apr. 4, 2020 at 5:19 p.m.
#3
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This isn't really something that needs proving. You're right that bad drafting leads to disaster, but I think everyone knows this already.
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Apr. 4, 2020 at 5:19 p.m.
#4
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Quoting: KakkoForMauriceRichardAward
Dude everyone gets batter after leaving Buffalo... Lehner, ROR, Kane, Ennis...

Risto would be a great d-man if he played with a shutdown d-man like McDonagh. Stop digging your head in the sand by thinking that just because he sucks defensively he's a bad d-man... we could say the same about Barrie


Sure, both are extremely overrated because of the empty calorie points they put up on the powerplay. Barrie is better defensively though, hes also a better puck mover, skater and better offensively. Ristolainen sucks offensively and defensively. Hes bad on the powerplay and penalty kill. Hes a terrible puck mover and can't defend the neutral zone or keep a decent gap to save his life. Theres nothing that hes really good at
Apr. 4, 2020 at 5:19 p.m.
#5
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Quoting: LeafsFanForSomeReason
This isn't really something that needs proving. You're right that bad drafting leads to disaster, but I think everyone knows this already.


Meh... a lot of people seem to think that teams can be built with free agents and trades...
Apr. 4, 2020 at 5:20 p.m.
#6
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Quoting: Jack_
Sure, both are extremely overrated because of the empty calorie points they put up on the powerplay. Barrie is better defensively though, hes also a better puck mover, skater and better offensively. Ristolainen sucks offensively and defensively. Hes bad on the powerplay and penalty kill. Hes a terrible puck mover and can't defend the neutral zone or keep a decent gap to save his life. Theres nothing that hes really good at


https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=139048

How is being a money in the bank 40 pts defender bad ofensively?
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Apr. 4, 2020 at 5:23 p.m.
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Quoting: KakkoForMauriceRichardAward
Dude everyone gets batter after leaving Buffalo... Lehner, ROR, Kane, Ennis...

Risto would be a great d-man if he played with a shutdown d-man like McDonagh. Stop digging your head in the sand by thinking that just because he sucks defensively he's a bad d-man... we could say the same about Barrie


Lehner played well in buffalo, Ennis had three 20 goal seasons in buffalo, kane is kane. oreilly was good here too

ristolainen is not good.
Apr. 4, 2020 at 5:24 p.m.
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Quoting: KakkoForMauriceRichardAward
https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=139048

How is being a money in the bank 40 pts defender bad ofensively?


getting secondary assists by passing to jack eichel who either scores or sets up a player isnt difficult and he has been replaced on the power play
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Apr. 4, 2020 at 5:27 p.m.
#9
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Quoting: KakkoForMauriceRichardAward
https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=139048

How is being a money in the bank 40 pts defender bad ofensively?


Yikes you're still using points to evaluate players. Theres not much hope for you
Apr. 4, 2020 at 5:27 p.m.
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Quoting: littlejerryseinfeld
Lehner played well in buffalo, Ennis had three 20 goal seasons in buffalo, kane is kane. oreilly was good here too

ristolainen is not good.


No I know they weren't bad however Ennis became a more complete player when he left BUF
Apr. 4, 2020 at 5:28 p.m.
#11
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Quoting: Jack_
Yikes you're still using points to evaluate players. Theres not much hope for you


No I'm not. Risotlainen is awful defensively but saying he's bad offensively is simply untrue
Apr. 4, 2020 at 5:28 p.m.
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sabres also drafted Nikita Zadorov, JT Compher, Brendan Lemieux, who are NHL regulars and Cal Peterson and Brendan Guhle who are about to be.

The stockpile of picks from the tank years didnt help as the 2nd rounders largely busted and Murray traded away 2 firsts that became Colin White and Jack Roslovic.

Murray screwed up by rushing the rebuild and the owners screwed up with trading oreilly and trading him without paying the bonus which hurt the return (there is video on the draft floor of Chayka and Botterill discussing oreilly and Chayka saying "domi, plus plus if you pay the bonus" or something like that)
Apr. 4, 2020 at 5:29 p.m.
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Quoting: KakkoForMauriceRichardAward
No I know they weren't bad however Ennis became a more complete player when he left BUF


I mean thats not true. He has had a nice rejuvenation to his career once he got over his injuries, but he was a good player for buffalo.
Apr. 4, 2020 at 5:44 p.m.
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Teams dont need amazing drafting. But they need to hit on important picks. If you arent trading your first, then you need to get a good player with it
Apr. 4, 2020 at 5:46 p.m.
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Really thought there was going to be a smart take here like

"Reaching a few picks for a player like Risto because of his size is rarely a risk that pays off"

but alas...

"Picking a guy like Mittelstadt due to his play at U18's is super dumb, and his lower production compared to other USHL players drafted outside of the top 10 such as Kyle Connor, much less his lower production compared to other USHL players drafted outside of the 1st round such as Ryan Dzingel, Jaden Schwartz and Rem Pitlick should have been a big indication that picking him that high was a big reach"
Apr. 4, 2020 at 5:57 p.m.
#16
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Quoting: KakkoForMauriceRichardAward
No I'm not. Risotlainen is awful defensively but saying he's bad offensively is simply untrue


He isnt good offensively. The majority of his powerplay points come from the net front where he plays. The sabers are so bad that they have Risto as their net front guy. Hes putting up points that he wouldnt get on any other team and points arent even the best way to judge a players offensive production
Apr. 4, 2020 at 6:05 p.m.
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Quoting: Jack_
I stopped reading after you said risto was a great pick and underrated. On another level svechnikov has been way better then dahlin. It's not even close

What are you talking about Dahlin has been the best teenage defenseman in the modern era of hockey. He outperform Svechnikov last year by 7 points..
Quoting: Jack_
I stopped reading after you said risto was a great pick and underrated. On another level svechnikov has been way better then dahlin. It's not even close


Quoting: Jack_
I stopped reading after you said risto was a great pick and underrated. On another level svechnikov has been way better then dahlin. It's not even close
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Apr. 4, 2020 at 6:24 p.m.
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Quoting: Sabres923
What are you talking about Dahlin has been the best teenage defenseman in the modern era of hockey. He outperform Svechnikov last year by 7 points..


Svechnikov barely got any pp time last season and this season hes been fantastic. Hes got a way higher GAR, xGAR and WAR. Dahlin has been slightly worse then Tkachuk in his career meaning hes been the 4th best player in his draft. Svech is also a fantastic play driver who's on pace for 74 points.

To say hes the best teenage defenseman is one of the funniest things I've read in a while. Hughes has been far far better. So has makar. Dahlin has very mediocre numbers so far. Some of it has to do with how bad buffalo's d core is but they wouldnt affect them that much.
Apr. 4, 2020 at 6:25 p.m.
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I really want Buffalo to be good, their tickets are significantly cheaper then Toronto so i wnjoy crossing the border to watch games there. Its also not hard to cheer for an underdog (I had tickets to the boston game right before the season was stopped).

IMO this team has had a lot of solid players come through its ranks, however the rebuild was rushed causing players like Risto to not really develop certain aspects of the game. Also a lot of poor UFA signings have consistently set them back. Most of which come off the books this summer. I know fans are getting inpatient but if I were management I would be looking to be competing by 2022. By then Dahlin and Jokiharju should be very good as well as Cozens and other young players. I would avoid over spending on IFA assets outaide of maybe grabbing someone like Haula, and try and get some defensive vets to reach how to PK.
Apr. 4, 2020 at 6:37 p.m.
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Quoting: Jack_
Svechnikov barely got any pp time last season and this season hes been fantastic. Hes got a way higher GAR, xGAR and WAR. Dahlin has been slightly worse then Tkachuk in his career meaning hes been the 4th best player in his draft. Svech is also a fantastic play driver who's on pace for 74 points.

To say hes the best teenage defenseman is one of the funniest things I've read in a while. Hughes has been far far better. So has makar. Dahlin has very mediocre numbers so far. Some of it has to do with how bad buffalo's d core is but they wouldnt affect them that much.


Quoting: Jack_
Svechnikov barely got any pp time last season and this season hes been fantastic. Hes got a way higher GAR, xGAR and WAR. Dahlin has been slightly worse then Tkachuk in his career meaning hes been the 4th best player in his draft. Svech is also a fantastic play driver who's on pace for 74 points.

To say hes the best teenage defenseman is one of the funniest things I've read in a while. Hughes has been far far better. So has makar. Dahlin has very mediocre numbers so far. Some of it has to do with how bad buffalo's d core is but they wouldnt affect them that much.

Dahlin was on a 56 point pace, if Cernak doesn’t give him a concussion. That would give him 100 career points already which would be absurd for an 19 year old defenseman. To say Dahlin is the fourth best player out of the 2018 draft is idiotic. Sure his defensive play needs some cleaning up, but he still has the most potential out of the big 4 of the 2018 draft.
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Apr. 4, 2020 at 6:38 p.m.
#21
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Plus Hughes isn’t a teenager he is 20 years old. Hughes and Makar needed extra development before entering the league.
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Apr. 4, 2020 at 6:51 p.m.
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Quoting: Sabres923
Dahlin was on a 56 point pace, if Cernak doesn’t give him a concussion. That would give him 100 career points already which would be absurd for an 19 year old defenseman. To say Dahlin is the fourth best player out of the 2018 draft is idiotic. Sure his defensive play needs some cleaning up, but he still has the most potential out of the big 4 of the 2018 draft.


Points arent a good indicator of offensive ability and his contribution to a teams offense. I still believe he will be the best of the 4 but so far he hasn't been as good
Apr. 4, 2020 at 6:53 p.m.
#23
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Like I said his defense needs work, it’s not as bad as people say it is. But when he gets more experience his defense will get better he’s going to be a dominant defenseman for a very long time.
Apr. 4, 2020 at 6:58 p.m.
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Quoting: littlejerryseinfeld
getting secondary assists by passing to jack eichel who either scores or sets up a player isnt difficult and he has been replaced on the power play


No he hasn’t
Apr. 4, 2020 at 7:03 p.m.
#25
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Quoting: Jack_
Yikes you're still using points to evaluate players. Theres not much hope for you


We get it... every player on the Sabres sucks and Botterill will trade away Eichel for scraps and the Leafs are the bestest ever & will win the next 14 Stanley Cups and blah blah blah

Dude, take your spiteful trolling & stick to posts about your team
No one here gives a f*#% what u think about Risto or the rest of the Sabres
Either come with something reasonably constructive,
or please just go away & don’t come back
Thanks
Have a great day
Signed,
Eichel > Mathews
 
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