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What would Columbus fans prefer to have_ 3 Options only

Created by: F50marco
Team: 2019-20 Columbus Blue Jackets
Initial Creation Date: Apr. 7, 2020
Published: Apr. 7, 2020
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Bla bla bla yada yada yada. Breathe in. Breathe out........
....
...
Ok, now, follow me down the rabbit whole on a pure hypothetical situation just for funzies.


Scenario:
Montreal comes to you and lets you know they will offer sheet PL Dubois in 48 hours time. Its nothing against the fine city of Columbus or anything personal. Montreal wants a french star centerman in the worst way and is willing to get stupid about it at this point. Not saying its worth it. Not saying its smart. Just saying that is what they are going to do. Knowing this, what would Columbus fans prefer the Habs offer them if they had to choose 1 option below?

The four 1st round picks compensation for OS's (starting with 2021 1st, not the 2020 1st)
Or
Trade package involving: Suzuki, Ylonen and a mid 1st round pick in 2020 (Assume Habs acquire another teams 1st around the 12-17ish pick in this years draft from another trade)
Or
Straight up match any silly offer Montreal makes because . (Assume its over 10.6M minimum and heavily bonus ladened - maybe us fans don't care but that is a real kick to the owners pocket that may make him uneasy a little bit)

What say you?

A couple things to keep in mind, the point here is Columbus has a choice: either match a ridiculous OS that would be pointless for a smaller market team to do, let Habs take him via OS but get the max compensation OR the above package. This isn't a negotiation. You have to choose one of the above.

You may or may not think one option is better than the other. That isn't the point. Its that because of the situation Columbus has to decide and somewhat quick which they prefer if presented with these options. I personally, in their shoes take the trade package hands down but that also means Habs get to negotiate a normal contract for PL Dubois so its a little bit of a win/win scenario. I think Suzuki will be a better point producer than Dubois will be so they are getting a dynamic player back in the immediate future to replace Dubois production at the very least if not his role. Ylonen is the short term future asset and the 1st is the long term future asset. If Columbus hits on all 3 assets, they walk away better off than the Habs in max 1 years time.
Trades
1.
CBJ
    PL Dubois
    MTL
      1st 2021
      1st 2022
      1st 2023
      1st 2024
      2.
      CBJ
        PL Dubois offer sheet Matched!
        MTL
          11M x 5 years
          3.
          CBJ
            PL Dubois
            MTL
              Nick Suzuki
              Ryan Poehling
              2020 1st rounder (Not MTL's, assume it another teams 12th-18th approx)

              Maybe a 5th in 2021 just to sway you to accept the trade over the four 1st rounders from the following 5 years instead.

              IMO

              Suzuki = 1st+
              Poehling= 1st
              12th-18th = 1st

              So maybe overall its less than four consecutive 1sts but its two pieces that help you now and one that maybe helps you soon.
              Buyouts
              DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
              2020
              Logo of the CBJ
              Logo of the CBJ
              Logo of the CBJ
              Logo of the CBJ
              Logo of the CBJ
              2021
              Logo of the CBJ
              Logo of the CBJ
              Logo of the CBJ
              Logo of the CBJ
              Logo of the CBJ
              Logo of the CBJ
              2022
              Logo of the CBJ
              Logo of the CBJ
              Logo of the CBJ
              Logo of the CBJ
              Logo of the CBJ
              Logo of the CBJ
              ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
              30$81,500,000$63,451,707$0$4,707,500$18,048,293
              Left WingCentreRight Wing
              Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
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              UFA - 4
              Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
              $894,166$894,166 (Performance Bonus$2,500,000$2M)
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              Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
              $5,875,000$5,875,000
              RW, LW
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              UFA - 6
              Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
              $1,375,000$1,375,000
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              $897,500$897,500
              LW, C, RW
              RFA - 2
              Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
              $4,900,000$4,900,000
              C
              UFA - 4
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              $3,750,000$3,750,000
              C, LW
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              Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
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              RW, LW
              UFA - 2
              Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
              $1,541,000$1,541,000
              LW, C, RW
              UFA - 1
              Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
              $2,750,000$2,750,000
              C, RW
              UFA - 2
              Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
              $1,850,000$1,850,000
              RW, LW
              UFA - 1
              Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
              $925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$425,000$425K)
              RW, LW
              RFA - 3
              Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
              Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
              $5,000,000$5,000,000
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              UFA - 3
              Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
              $5,400,000$5,400,000
              RD
              UFA - 3
              Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
              $1,150,000$1,150,000
              G
              UFA - 1
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              $4,600,000$4,600,000
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              Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
              $1,062,500$1,062,500
              RD
              UFA - 2
              Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
              $874,125$874,125
              G
              UFA - 1
              Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
              $925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
              LD
              UFA - 1
              Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
              $2,700,000$2,700,000
              LD/RD
              UFA - 3
              ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
              Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
              $675,000$675,000
              LW, RW
              UFA - 1
              Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
              $5,850,000$5,850,000
              C, LW
              M-NTC, NMC
              UFA - 2
              Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
              $864,167$864,167
              C, RW
              UFA - 1
              Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
              $842,500$842,500 (Performance Bonus$82,500$82K)
              LW
              UFA - 1
              Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
              $874,125$874,125
              LW
              UFA - 1
              Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
              $874,125$874,125
              C
              UFA - 1
              Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
              $725,000$725,000
              LW
              UFA - 2
              Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
              $916,667$916,667 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
              RD
              UFA - 2
              Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
              $725,000$725,000
              LD/RD
              UFA - 1
              Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
              $894,166$894,166
              LD
              UFA - 1
              Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
              $1,633,333$1,633,333
              LD
              UFA - 3

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              Apr. 7, 2020 at 6:27 p.m.
              #1
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              If you didn't know once you matched an offer sheet, you can't trade him for a year
              Montreal wouldn't do that trade anyway
              Apr. 7, 2020 at 6:33 p.m.
              #2
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              Not a CBJ fan, but chiming in.

              Well, for one, I think your premise is flawed. Montreal gave Aho an offer sheet last year that was just under the 2 1st round picks, a second, and a 3rd threshold, and I'd imagine they'd do the same with Dubois. So I can't even see them offering 11m AAV in the first place. But to play along, if I were a CBJ fan, I'd say screw MTL's offer sheet I'm keeping Dubois. 11M is overpaying him, but as a Wild fan I know how hard it is to find a 1C and since I'm acting as a a CBJ fan here, I'd also know the value of having a 1C since Columbus hasn't really ever had one. I'll take the 1C every day over the four 1st round picks since those picks area bunch of question marks and those eventual picks won't even see the NHL for 2 years at the earliest, and likely 4 years at the earliest. A dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow.

              Your trade option is interesting though. Suzuki looks like he'll be a great player and maybe even a 1C, I guess it would depend on your view of him. I'd still probably decline if I'm Jarmo.
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              Apr. 7, 2020 at 6:38 p.m.
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              Not a CBJ fan, but take the compensation all day.
              Apr. 7, 2020 at 6:40 p.m.
              #4
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              Quoting: Torontoleafs15
              If you didn't know once you matched an offer sheet, you can't trade him for a year
              Montreal wouldn't do that trade anyway


              Huh? I don't think you fully read the premise through....... Its only 1 of the 3 options. Montreal goes to Columbus and tells them they will be sending an offer sheet to Dubois. A very expensive one, meaning four 1st round picks. If you prefer to settle this before it getting to the offers sheet, Habs can offer you this trade instead. Your choice. Accept this offer, wait to see the offer sheet and accept it at all costs or let him go once you see the cost.
              Apr. 7, 2020 at 6:52 p.m.
              #5
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              Quoting: TanSor
              Not a CBJ fan, but chiming in.

              Well, for one, I think your premise is flawed. Montreal gave Aho an offer sheet last year that was just under the 2 1st round picks, a second, and a 3rd threshold, and I'd imagine they'd do the same with Dubois. So I can't even see them offering 11m AAV in the first place. But to play along, if I were a CBJ fan, I'd say screw MTL's offer sheet I'm keeping Dubois. 11M is overpaying him, but as a Wild fan I know how hard it is to find a 1C and since I'm acting as a a CBJ fan here, I'd also know the value of having a 1C since Columbus hasn't really ever had one. I'll take the 1C every day over the four 1st round picks since those picks area bunch of question marks and those eventual picks won't even see the NHL for 2 years at the earliest, and likely 4 years at the earliest. A dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow.

              Your trade option is interesting though. Suzuki looks like he'll be a great player and maybe even a 1C, I guess it would depend on your view of him. I'd still probably decline if I'm Jarmo.


              Flawed? Its a hypothetical scenario..lol..and even then you don't think MTL would offer a greater offer for a Quebec born big centerman. Im not too sure about that. Its a big deal here.

              Anyhow, remember they won't know how much it will be before hand and the trade offer is off the table once the offer sheet is given (and obviously presumably accepted). Secondly and this is only speculative but this will be a highly bonus, highly front loaded deal. Even though it would be overkill cost wise, Habs land would still praise the GM that pulled this off as it would be them finally getting their hometown hero type player. Not to mention a market that can easily absorb this massive cash expense. Can you imagine the number of new Dubois jerseys they'd sell after this??? This isn't trying to crap on Columbus or anything but you'd have to be somewhat conscientious of the fact that Montreal can pull this off simply on a marketing aspect alone. I'm not sure Columbus could. Im also assuming because of this pandemic that the smaller market teams are going to be a little more cash strapped than usual which only adds to the magnitude of the situation.
              Apr. 7, 2020 at 6:59 p.m.
              #6
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              Quoting: LeafsFanForSomeReason
              Not a CBJ fan, but take the compensation all day.


              Could Columbus survive the public outlash of losing Dubois and then only getting picks that they could use in the following four years? It sounds all nice and dandy to take the compensation but they are only goig to be able to reap the benefit of those picks starting in like minimum 2 years time and thats if the pick the get is a player that can play right away. Imagine if it is a 15-25 pick?

              I think four 1st round picks in the next 5 years is not as valuable until you know where those picks land and also if the team is good enough to lose the player and still be decent. TB for example could lose their best player and still be a great team so they could afford it.
              Apr. 7, 2020 at 7:00 p.m.
              #7
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              Quoting: F50marco
              Even though it would be overkill cost wise, Habs land would still praise the GM that pulled this off as it would be them finally getting their hometown hero type player.


              I don't think you are giving Habs fans enough credit here. Over paying for somebody that massively AND losing four unprotected 1st round picks in the process... I think Habs land would (rightly) go nuts.
              Apr. 7, 2020 at 7:05 p.m.
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              Quoting: F50marco
              Could Columbus survive the public outlash of losing Dubois and then only getting picks that they could use in the following four years? It sounds all nice and dandy to take the compensation but they are only goig to be able to reap the benefit of those picks starting in like minimum 2 years time and thats if the pick the get is a player that can play right away. Imagine if it is a 15-25 pick?

              I think four 1st round picks in the next 5 years is not as valuable until you know where those picks land and also if the team is good enough to lose the player and still be decent. TB for example could lose their best player and still be a great team so they could afford it.


              Yes, they could survive that 'outlash', if there even is any. They are a middling team who exceeded expectations this year. Last year they went for it, hard, and it didn't work out. They don't have a core that can win right now, and the best way to build one is through the draft. The picks are also unprotected. I personally don't think PLD would catapult MTL into a top 3 spot and they may still not even make the playoffs. Imagine the picks being top 10, or even a lottery winner.
              Apr. 7, 2020 at 7:12 p.m.
              #9
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              Quoting: LeafsFanForSomeReason
              I don't think you are giving Habs fans enough credit here. Over paying for somebody that massively AND losing four unprotected 1st round picks in the process... I think Habs land would (rightly) go nuts.


              Take the Habs current team and add a #1 center to it. It is going to take a massive underachievement for them to finish anywhere they would have to sweat losing their unprotected picks and even then....who cares??? How many potential picks are better than Dubois? Barring winning the draft lottery multiple times, whats the problem? They are getting a #1 center, whose from here and is not even in his prime yet!

              As for Habs fans, I think you got to be here to understand. The bias towards Quebec players is palpable. If they are getting a #1 cneter like Dubois, money is the last thing they care about and Habs drafting hasn't exactly been spot on in the first round the past ten years.
              Apr. 7, 2020 at 7:23 p.m.
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              Quoting: LeafsFanForSomeReason
              Yes, they could survive that 'outlash', if there even is any. They are a middling team who exceeded expectations this year. Last year they went for it, hard, and it didn't work out. They don't have a core that can win right now, and the best way to build one is through the draft. The picks are also unprotected. I personally don't think PLD would catapult MTL into a top 3 spot and they may still not even make the playoffs. Imagine the picks being top 10, or even a lottery winner.


              Hmm that seems too far sighted IMO. I think you are underestimating the difference between big market teams like Toronto and Montreal and the ones that aren't making as much money and with a fan base that has many other sporting events to attend, may not be as willing to wait...........................6 years to accumulate all the benefit of those picks. Which is a long time when a team isn't making much money and lost one of their biggest money makers.

              As for imagine this and imagine that.....yes now also look at the flip side because there is just as much evidence for it as your scenario: Imagine those four 1sts yield a bunch of lesser good players combined than Dubois? That is also a potential outcome.
              Apr. 7, 2020 at 7:27 p.m.
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              Quoting: F50marco
              Take the Habs current team and add a #1 center to it. It is going to take a massive underachievement for them to finish anywhere they would have to sweat losing their unprotected picks


              Not really. There are a lot of good teams in the east. I could easily see MTL missing the playoffs even with that addition. I'm not sure they pass any of the top 3 in the ATL, and if Bob rebounds next year, they'll be in tough against Florida, too. There is a very decent chance one of those picks turns out better than PLD.

              Quoting: F50marco
              As for Habs fans, I think you got to be here to understand. The bias towards Quebec players is palpable. If they are getting a #1 cneter like Dubois, money is the last thing they care about


              This is depressing.
              Apr. 7, 2020 at 7:31 p.m.
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              Quoting: F50marco
              As for imagine this and imagine that.....yes now also look at the flip side because there is just as much evidence for it as your scenario: Imagine those four 1sts yield a bunch of lesser good players combined than Dubois? That is also a potential outcome.


              You started the 'imagine' thing. That's why I replied with one myself. You're reiterating.
              Apr. 7, 2020 at 7:59 p.m.
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              Columbus doesn’t match, we take the picks. Or we trade you his rights. How about a more real trade. 2020 1st, Domi, 2020 2nd and either Caufield, Suzuki or KK... you say he’s a number 1 center so give us something worthy of a 23 year old number 1 center.

              If it goes anything under 4 1sts then Columbus matches.
              Apr. 7, 2020 at 8:11 p.m.
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              Why would they take Suzuki Ylonin and a 1st?
              CBJ has leverage in the deal knowing Montreal really wants Dubois that bad (almost as bad as Leafs fans drool over Jones!!!)...they should force their hand, hold out for Suzuki Ylonin and 2 1sts or tell the Habs that CBJ will match the offer sheet. It will force Montreal to come up with the 4 assets rather than 3 if they want him.
              Apr. 7, 2020 at 8:25 p.m.
              #15
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              Quoting: LeafsFanForSomeReason
              Not really. There are a lot of good teams in the east. I could easily see MTL missing the playoffs even with that addition. I'm not sure they pass any of the top 3 in the ATL, and if Bob rebounds next year, they'll be in tough against Florida, too. There is a very decent chance one of those picks turns out better than PLD.



              This is depressing.


              I think we're going to have to agree to disagree on your analysis. I think you are undervaluing what a healthy Habs lineup with the addition of PLD could do but that's your opinion and your entitled to it.
              Apr. 7, 2020 at 8:29 p.m.
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              Quoting: Ajp_18
              Columbus doesn’t match, we take the picks. Or we trade you his rights. How about a more real trade. 2020 1st, Domi, 2020 2nd and either Caufield, Suzuki or KK... you say he’s a number 1 center so give us something worthy of a 23 year old number 1 center.

              If it goes anything under 4 1sts then Columbus matches.


              Perfect. Just to clarify, if it were exactly 10.6M *7 years you'd let him go?

              As for the trade, like I aid it wasn't a negotiation. You have but 3 options. Take the trade offer or decline and wait to see the offer sheet and when you finally see it either match or don't. Once the offer sheet is sent, there is no more negotiating so you'd have to make your decision on a trade package before then. That's why its a tricky scenario.
              Apr. 7, 2020 at 8:38 p.m.
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              Quoting: Bluejackets2000
              Why would they take Suzuki Ylonin and a 1st?
              CBJ has leverage in the deal knowing Montreal really wants Dubois that bad (almost as bad as Leafs fans drool over Jones!!!)...they should force their hand, hold out for Suzuki Ylonin and 2 1sts or tell the Habs that CBJ will match the offer sheet. It will force Montreal to come up with the 4 assets rather than 3 if they want him.


              You clearly didn't read the whole description. Columbus has very little leverage here. There is a limit to the value the Habs would offer in trade, money on the other hand they are way more easy to dole out and four 1st round picks over the next 5 years are what they are willing to let go for. So Just to clarify for you:

              Day 1: Habs tell Jackets they will OS PLD. If they prefer to not go that route, Habs are willing to offer them Suzuki, Ylonen and a 1st round pick 2020 (assume its not Montreal's as in my hypothetical scenario another trade was made before this one with a team in the 12-18th range approx). Habs give them 24-48h to accept the offer or the offer sheet will be sent and the trade offer will be no longer available.
              After 48 hours: Columbus gets back to Montreal and either accepts/declines the deal or waits to see what the OS is and either matches that offer or lets him go for the compensation.

              That's why there is only 3 options in this scenario to choose from. Have to pick one of them.
              Apr. 7, 2020 at 8:44 p.m.
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              Quoting: LeafsFanForSomeReason
              You started the 'imagine' thing. That's why I replied with one myself. You're reiterating.


              Lol this isn't a kindergarten quibble, simply pointing out that yeah the Habs could potentially lose a 1st overall pick in this trade. Whats more likely though, the picks are scattered 10-30 or even one lands a 1st overall? So obviously yes there is potential every single pick is a 1st overall but realistically the odds of every pick being top 10 is just not as realistic as it being at the very least spread out over the 5-31 range through all 4 picks. Based on that realistic potential, I'd gladly take PLD over the four 1st round picks. *only because of what PLD would mean to the Habs*. If he wasn't from Quebec, I don't think the offer would even happen to be honest.
              Apr. 7, 2020 at 8:49 p.m.
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              Edited Apr. 7, 2020 at 11:31 p.m.
              @Jacketsman61
              @Jarmo
              @JarmoK
              @steinosaur19
              @MBisch28

              What do you guys think? I want to get Columbus fans opinions as you'll probably have a better feel for the team direction, ability and outlook based on something like this happening.

              Edit: After looking at the deal a little and seeing some peoples responses I may be willing to up the trade offer a little. Instead of Ylonen (Unless you value him the way I do), I'd be willing to swap him for Poehling and throw a cherry on top of like a 5th rounder or something. Let me know if this changes anything for you guys.
              Apr. 7, 2020 at 8:57 p.m.
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              Montreal offer sheets PLD and if he signs it the offer sheet goes on to CBJ and then they have 2 weeks before they have to have official decision. Correct?
              Apr. 7, 2020 at 8:58 p.m.
              #21
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              Quoting: aedoran
              Montreal offer sheets PLD and if he signs it the offer sheet goes on to CBJ and then they have 2 weeks before they have to have official decision. Correct?


              I believe so yes. Maybe only 1 week actually? I can't remember exactly to be honest.
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              Apr. 7, 2020 at 9:24 p.m.
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              Quoting: F50marco
              Perfect. Just to clarify, if it were exactly 10.6M *7 years you'd let him go?

              As for the trade, like I aid it wasn't a negotiation. You have but 3 options. Take the trade offer or decline and wait to see the offer sheet and when you finally see it either match or don't. Once the offer sheet is sent, there is no more negotiating so you'd have to make your decision on a trade package before then. That's why its a tricky scenario.


              From a Columbus stand point PLD is most of their offense. I’d rather trade him the let him get offersheeted as the picks don’t help us for a few years.
              Apr. 7, 2020 at 9:27 p.m.
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              Quoting: F50marco
              I believe so yes. Maybe only 1 week actually? I can't remember exactly to be honest.


              I wouldn't offer 4 1st rd picks. Montreal isn't a playoff team this season now they have some very good prospects on the way but even if all their prospects play next with PLD I still think its a season or 2 before they are a playoff team. Look at NYR they added Panarin, Trouba, Kakko, Fox and Deangelo had a break out season along with Georgiev. Just about everything went right for the Rangers and they are 2 points out of the playoffs. You can add all these good players but a team still need time to gel and play as a team. Montreal could add PLD now and miss the playoffs the next 2 seasons. You offer sheet a player for four 1st rd picks until you are trying to get past the conference finals and that player is going to get you to the Cup. But thats just how I see it.
              Apr. 7, 2020 at 9:34 p.m.
              #24
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              Quoting: Ajp_18
              From a Columbus stand point PLD is most of their offense. I’d rather trade him the let him get offersheeted as the picks don’t help us for a few years.


              Well that wa the point of the exercise i showed above. The offer is above, if that isn't accepted, the offer sheet is coming within a day afterwards so the decision would have to be quick as they wouldn;t be able to trade him once the offer sheet is made.
              Apr. 7, 2020 at 9:37 p.m.
              #25
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              Quoting: aedoran
              I wouldn't offer 4 1st rd picks. Montreal isn't a playoff team this season now they have some very good prospects on the way but even if all their prospects play next with PLD I still think its a season or 2 before they are a playoff team. Look at NYR they added Panarin, Trouba, Kakko, Fox and Deangelo had a break out season along with Georgiev. Just about everything went right for the Rangers and they are 2 points out of the playoffs. You can add all these good players but a team still need time to gel and play as a team. Montreal could add PLD now and miss the playoffs the next 2 seasons. You offer sheet a player for four 1st rd picks until you are trying to get past the conference finals and that player is going to get you to the Cup. But thats just how I see it.


              I understand that and that is a risk they'd have to make. But ask yourself, even if those picks ended up being 10th, 15th, 20th, 25th, there's no guarantee that those players combined even match what PLD is now AND is the case of the 10th and 15th picks, those aren't high odds of winning the lottery.

              I get it, it risky but simply looking at odds plus the fact that the significance of PLD in Montreal is greater than elsewhere, I think the Habs would have better odds of general overall success in the trade with PLD than with those picks.
              aedoran liked this.
               
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