2020 NHL Draft:
Avs select D Emil Andrae 29th overall (COL 1st)
Avs select C Marat Khusnutdinov 45th overall (FLA 2nd)
Avs select LW Emil Heineman 82nd overall (TOR 3rd)
not gonna predict anything after the 3rd round
Trades
FLA has no problem on offense (3.30GF/GP - 6th best in league) but their defense and penalty kill could use some work. If Florida wants to stay competitive they need to improve their defense (3.25GA/GP - 28th best in league, allow 10th most shots against per game, 78.5% PK - 20th in league). Zadorov would become their best shutdown defenseman on the left side. They dont really have NHL quality LHD behind Yandle and Matheson - Riley Stillman is better suited in the AHL imo. FLA has tons of forward prospects in the system already - Heponiemi, Borgstrom, Tippett, Denisenko, Noel, etc.
Avs have an abundance of LHD in their system: Zadorov, Girard, Graves, Cole, Byram, MacDonald and need to make room for Byram.
Overall the Avs trade from a position of strength (LHD) for futures, while FLA also trades from a position of strength (Young FWDs and futures) for a position of weakness (LHD). Let me know if you think the value is off and I may adjust it.
Signings
Burakovsky - shown that he can be productive in the top 6 and he gets rewarded with a 5M AAV on a nice 4 year deal - comparables: Hertl, Niederreiter, JT Miller
Jost - shown that he is a capable 3rd line player and is starting to embrace a defensive role with time on the PK so he gets a 2 year deal for 1.5M AAV - comparables: Barbashev, McCann, Hartman
Graves - came out of nowhere and is now a solid #4 D man. He gets a 2 year deal at 2.5M AAV - comparables: Forbort, Hutton, Lindell
Nichushkin - Another player who came out of nowhere and had a great season. He is a very responsible defensive winger who can play anywhere in the lineup. 2x2 seems fair to me - not many comparables for this one since this is a unique situation where a top prospect was considered a bust and then turned his career around, but if I had to pick some I guess it would be Girgensons, Bennett, Hartman
Avs could afford to add a top 6 winger, but I dont think they will find the right fit this offseason. Instead I think they wait it out until next season to see if they can fill that role internally. Nieto, Wilson, and other depth pieces could also be added but they may opt to sign elsewhere for a larger contract and/or a larger role.
Starting Roster
Lines may not be accurate but I chose the players who I think will make the opening night roster.
On defense, Byram has shown in the 2nd half of the WHL season that he has nothing else to learn there. He will get a spot on the 3rd pair to play sheltered mins at even strength. I think Timmins will have another strong camp but wont make it over any of the NHL regulars (Girard, Graves, Cole, Makar, Johnson). Instead of leaving him as the 7th D man I think they let him further develop in the AHL as the Eagles top D man. Timmins will probably get some NHL games in if there are injuries. MacDonald takes the 7th D man spot - he was the Eagles top D man last season.
On offense, Avs top forward prospect Alex Newhook will return to BC for another season of College Hockey. The obvious NHL forwards take up 11 spots, leaving one spot in the bottom 6 open for a graduating prospect. Martin Kaut seems like one of the most NHL ready players and had a solid showing in the 2019-2020 season. Similarly to Timmins, I think Bowers has a good camp but needs more time to develop before getting a regular spot in the lineup. Instead of letting him sit in the press box as the 13th or 14th forward, he plays top line mins in the AHL for one more season, but may get some NHL games depending on injuries. Kamenev and O'Connor are the forward scratches, although Tynan could push for one of these spots too.
Goalies are pretty obvious, Grubauer and Francouz will be the Avs tandem again while Werner is the starter for the Eagles. Sakic will let Annunen play at least one more season in Europe before bringing him over.
Point Predictions - Individual
Assuming Everyone Plays an 82 Game Season
MacKinnon - 100pts
Rantanen - 90pts
Makar - 82pts
Landeskog - 70pts
Burakovsky - 65pts
Kadri - 55pts
Girard - 45pts
Donskoi - 40ps
Compher - 40pts
Nishushkin - 35pts
Jost - 30pts
Graves - 30pts
Kaut - 25pts
Calvert - 25pts
Cole - 20pts
Byram - 15pts
Bellemare - 15pts
Johnson - 15pts
Regular Season Central Division Standings Prediction
1. COL 105pts
2. STL 100pts
3. WPG 95pts
4. DAL 95pts
5. NSH 90pts
6. MIN 85pts
7. CHI 80pts
No, stop, you don't need more prospects, you already got an insane steal in Newhook, you don't need Marat AND Andrae IDJAGEJFNHEKSBDUFKBDISJFJDKSBDU (plus looking at that Heineman guy, he looks really impressive)
Where's Weegar for FLA? He's actually their 2nd/3rd best option on D and he mostly played LD1 while being right-handed (and did very well).
Knew I was missing something - move Pysyk up to wing and use Weegar on the 1st or 2nd pair. Zadorov can play both sides too so they can be flexible with the pairings
No, stop, you don't need more prospects, you already got an insane steal in Newhook, you don't need Marat AND Andrae IDJAGEJFNHEKSBDUFKBDISJFJDKSBDU (plus looking at that Heineman guy, he looks really impressive)
Like seriously that's my ideal draft for ANA (just replace Andrae with Niemela/Grans bc handedness)+Rossi at 5, and I my main target for PIT when they still had their first was Andrae
Like seriously that's my ideal draft for ANA (just replace Andrae with Niemela/Grans bc handedness)+Rossi at 5, and I my main target for PIT when they still had their first was Andrae
I also wish Andrae was a RHD but Im really high on him so id take him anyway. I like Rossi at #5 too
Very thoughtful and amazingly done. You analyzed this almost perfectly and signed players correctly. Byram can hit 20-30 points in a sheltered role but there is uncertainty. Also, Kaut could move up into the top 6 considering his skill level and shot and I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up being a dark horse for the Calder.
Very thoughtful and amazingly done. You analyzed this almost perfectly and signed players correctly. Byram can hit 20-30 points in a sheltered role but there is uncertainty. Also, Kaut could move up into the top 6 considering his skill level and shot and I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up being a dark horse for the Calder.
Thanks - I think Byrams points really depend on if he gets PP time on the 2nd unit. I didnt worry too much about the lines but there is a spot available in the top 6 so if Kaut can get chemistry with Kadri/Burakovsky then that could put him in a really good position. I dont know about winning the Calder but that would be a nice surprise
What do you think Zadarov's next contract looks like? Does a bridge deal around 2-3 years with a 3-ish million dollar cap hit sound about right?
His QO is 3.2M - I dont think he has earned more than that. So anywhere from 1-3 years at 3.2M is my guess. Although he is arbitration eligible so you never know
Stack up our depth long-term and D is what we should be targeting with our early pick(s) in 2020. Beyond Byram and Timmins our depth is quite sparse, with only Helleson as a legit D prospect. We could for example do with a LHD on an ELC to take Graves' spot on the 3rd pairing when he looks to cash in via UFA in 2-3 years. Or another option at RHD to replace Johnson incase Timmins and/or Helleson don't work out.
Namestnikov likely won't get offered the term he wants - Sakic will resist giving him more than 3 years due to Mackinnon being up in 2023, so for that reason I can see him hitting UFA.
Agree with your evaluation on Zadorov. 2nd + 3rd, or 2nd + 4th + minor add/prospect, seems about right.
Regarding capspace, riding into the season with almost $8m in capspace would be quite unlikely (Avs usually only carry 1 extra forward so it frees up another ~$900k on the cap).
With that in mind, are there any obvious ways that Sakic can either weaponise that extra capspace to pick up assets, without adding cap beyond 2021? I like the way the roster is constructed, and there's no need to add players for the sake of it, but it seems silly to just let that unused space go to waste. And judging by Sakic's pursuit of Panarin on a 4 year deal last year it would seem like Sakic would be keen to use that $8m capspace somehow, though clearly only on a short term deal. Perhaps acquiring Huberbeau (or another top forward with a contract that expires in 2023) could be an option if it doesn't cost the moon.
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