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Cap expectations

Apr. 20, 2020 at 1:55 p.m.
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With the amount of loss in revnue already so far I think fans need to understand the reality that cap will be likely lower next season then it was this season.

If the NHL doesnt have a remainder of this season and playoffs, that's 1 to 2 billion dollars in revnue gone.

If next season is played without fans, considering how gate driven the league is, there is probably not even a good idea how much of loss in revnue that will be.


I'm starting to look at scenarios were the the cap is 70 to 75 million with no compliance buyouts.
Instead of compliance buyouts, I could see a salary rollback based on cap percentage of the current contracts players are signed to.
With the salary not paid throw into salary pool of some kind to be looked at later date, years from now, when cov19 has a vaccine.

Newly signed contracts not being subjected to this.


Fans currently creating ACGMs right now are assuming cap remains the same, or goes up.
Or thinking there will be compliance buyouts.

I think the impact of cov19 will last longer than many think.



Would very interested in your view points on this.
Apr. 20, 2020 at 1:57 p.m.
#2
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Apr. 20, 2020 at 2:37 p.m.
#3
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I've been saying the following for weeks/months? The cap of 2020/21 is based on the revenues of the 2019/20. The NHL had announced in February? the were expected about an 86m cap in 2020/21. The Covid and the league has posted about 25% of this years revenue, So as you illustrated a cap of 70 to next season.....Lets say 70m.
The owners and NHLPA will agree to 70m. But it is kinda up to the players how that money will distributed. I suggest that contracts/arbitrations are based on 86m. The players vote and they vote that ALL players take a 25% salary cut in 2020/21. Since the majority of NHLPA members are of the lower paid guys, the big contract in place have no meaning for the majority the players. Everyone takes a pay cut as voted on the NHLPA..of 25%
But that is the best case scenario. Lets's look at the 2020/21 season. And it could be all sports leagues. Is the league going to start as scheduled? Even it does why fans due to the Covid concern and economic hardship attend games? Do fans have the money to buy high priced sports merchandise? Think 70m is too low for next season. Gee, it could be even lower in 2021/22 cause people can't/won't be attending games in 2020/21,
IMO the NHL won't be playing a full schedule next season. Hockey arena especially will not have the walk up paying spectators which they need to generate revenue. Business who generally have tax write ticket, might not even in by solvent to buy tickets. The NHL I looking at a big drop in revenue even if they play a full season. Empty seats for sure.
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Apr. 20, 2020 at 2:51 p.m.
#4
Just Keep Swimming
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Quoting: palhal
The cap of 2020/21 is based on the revenues of the 2019/20.


This is categorically incorrect. The cap mid-point + NHLPA inflator is an estimation of the earnings for the year in which the cap will be in effect. On top of that, the cap is set purely by negotiation between the NHLPA and NHLBOG meaning they can entirely ignore revenues if needed.
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Apr. 20, 2020 at 2:55 p.m.
#5
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Quoting: Random2152
This is categorically incorrect. The cap mid-point + NHLPA inflator is an estimation of the earnings for the year in which the cap will be in effect. On top of that, the cap is set purely by negotiation between the NHLPA and NHLBOG meaning they can entirely ignore revenues if needed.


You think they the owners are going to ignore revenue, when the basis of the cap is 50% revenue share with the players.
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Apr. 20, 2020 at 3:17 p.m.
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Quoting: palhal
You think they the owners are going to ignore revenue, when the basis of the cap is 50% revenue share with the players.


I'm saying that you are wrong that the cap is based on the previous years income.

I am also saying that 20+ teams are beyond screwed if the cap goes down. Something has to give. Remember the owners will always get 50% of revenues, so they don't care about where the cap is. The real losers are the NHLPA.
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Apr. 20, 2020 at 5:40 p.m.
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I'm not going to bother speculating what the cap will be next season because at least here in Canada, we have not lifted any restrictions yet and based on what officials say, they will not be lifted soon.

Lifting these restrictions will be a big deal but can't be done too soon because a second lockdown will hurt more than this one is hurting.

I will say tho...I believe there will NOT be any fans at arenas next season because I believe that a slow lifting of restrictions is what should/will happen and that affects revenues in the future, nevermind the current situation.

Random is right that the NHLPA is going to be the ones taking the hit for all this.

The question I have is whether these leagues (NHL, NBA, NFL, MLB) will go to their partner networks and ask for a bigger return on their t.v. deals.

Btw...just a quick comment on the NHL and t.v. deals: very important they get a deal done with ESPN.
Apr. 20, 2020 at 9:05 p.m.
#8
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Edited Apr. 20, 2020 at 9:12 p.m.
Quoting: Random2152
I'm saying that you are wrong that the cap is based on the previous years income.

I am also saying that 20+ teams are beyond screwed if the cap goes down. Something has to give. Remember the owners will always get 50% of revenues, so they don't care about where the cap is. The real losers are the NHLPA.


Years ago when the NBA and NBAPA had agreed to a sharing of revenues, (believe it is 57%), the two sides couldn't agree on how it was going to be shared. Finally the owners in frustration said, "We don't care, give all to Micheal Jordan if you want, you figure it out". So the players came up with a solution.
Same with the NHLPA. The majority of players will come up with a solution. And IMO it will everyone player will take a pay cut even with the one's with current contracts.

I'll disagree with the you when you say the owners don't care what the cap is. The owners would prefer a 100m cap, that means the average owner get 100m. A 70m cap means the owners only get an average of 70m each . Lots of those owner expenses are fixed costs....the arena, transportations, meals, the AHL, executive salaries....more cap/revenue is the profit margin.
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May 4, 2020 at 6:56 p.m.
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I'm a get to all of you threads and ACGMs over the next couple of days I'm going to be busy unpacking but I will get back to you. Anyways good to hear from you and how you been holding up? I'm good just my phone wouldn't let me log in at first I thought the site needed to be updated but found out it was my phone. Anyways, I'm back!!!
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May 4, 2020 at 7:47 p.m.
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Quoting: Sign_em_up000000
I'm a get to all of you threads and ACGMs over the next couple of days I'm going to be busy unpacking but I will get back to you. Anyways good to hear from you and how you been holding up? I'm good just my phone wouldn't let me log in at first I thought the site needed to be updated but found out it was my phone. Anyways, I'm back!!!


@jack_ I'm not sure if you will get this as your handle didn't pop up so I typed it in but how have you been? I'm going to check in with everyone over the next few days and I enjoyed our converstion we were having last, I can't remember what reply I had but I will try to get to it over the next few days. Anyways I just wanted to check in and see how you are doing? Sorry it took so long my phone is on its last legs I got a new one but it will take me a few days to get it up and running as I'm moving tomorrow and will have to unpack.
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May 4, 2020 at 8:12 p.m.
#11
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I'm a get to all of you threads and ACGMs over the next couple of days I'm going to be busy unpacking but I will get back to you. Anyways good to hear from you and how you been holding up? I'm good just my phone wouldn't let me log in at first I thought the site needed to be updated but found out it was my phone. Anyways, I'm back!!!


Welcome back. Hope the unpacking and I presume. your move was fine. I said there would be more divorces but no one want to move.
I don't have have my playoff beard this spring, but I do have by Covid 19 hair. I needed a haircut in mid March....and now 7 weeks later., I look like Brent Burns.
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May 4, 2020 at 8:21 p.m.
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Quoting: palhal
Welcome back. Hope the unpacking and I presume. your move was fine. I said there would be more divorces but no one want to move.
I don't have have my playoff beard this spring, but I do have by Covid 19 hair. I needed a haircut in mid March....and now 7 weeks later., I look like Brent Burns.


Thanks! Much appreciated! I didn't know so many people cared I was gone. I move tomorrow, I'm packing and getting everything ready today and will be unpacking as soon as I move in. So far everything is good as far as moving and no coronavirus cases with anyone i know I hope you are doing well too and your friends and family are all safe. I and my ex were never married but together for 9 years and have two kids together a 4-year-old daughter and a 2-year-old son. And lmao I need a hair cut too but I usually just buzz mine... Hope you grow you playoff beard in even if there isn't any hockey for a while😔. I know your a bills, Raps and blue jays fan too and I'm sure like me cant wait till they get going again. I'm a colts fan and hate the patriots and I'm just getting back into football but at least their dynasty is broken up!
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May 4, 2020 at 9:17 p.m.
#13
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Thanks! Much appreciated! I didn't know so many people cared I was gone. I move tomorrow, I'm packing and getting everything ready today and will be unpacking as soon as I move in. So far everything is good as far as moving and no coronavirus cases with anyone i know I hope you are doing well too and your friends and family are all safe. I and my ex were never married but together for 9 years and have two kids together a 4-year-old daughter and a 2-year-old son. And lmao I need a hair cut too but I usually just buzz mine... Hope you grow you playoff beard in even if there isn't any hockey for a while😔. I know your a bills, Raps and blue jays fan too and I'm sure like me cant wait till they get going again. I'm a colts fan and hate the patriots and I'm just getting back into football but at least their dynasty is broken up!


Sorry about the forced move....I'm going through some trauma myself. My wife is hospitalized and I haven't been able to see her for 8 weeks due to the hospital quarantine . Yea, everybody I know is Covid19 good. Actual in my small town and adjoining communites, we've been virtually clean. I've been hanging with one person, so that my self/duo isolation.
Sports? You might just have to forget about this season and maybe even at least part of next season. Even at that, how many people will want to attend games or even be able to afford it.
My playoff beard. I've had a beard for over 40 years. Folks ask me when I'm going to shave it. I say when the Leafs win the Cup.
May 4, 2020 at 11:41 p.m.
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Quoting: palhal
Sorry about the forced move....I'm going through some trauma myself. My wife is hospitalized and I haven't been able to see her for 8 weeks due to the hospital quarantine . Yea, everybody I know is Covid19 good. Actual in my small town and adjoining communites, we've been virtually clean. I've been hanging with one person, so that my self/duo isolation.
Sports? You might just have to forget about this season and maybe even at least part of next season. Even at that, how many people will want to attend games or even be able to afford it.
My playoff beard. I've had a beard for over 40 years. Folks ask me when I'm going to shave it. I say when the Leafs win the Cup.


All good, it was for the best. It's not good to constantly bicker and fight in front of the kids and we had done it long enough. We actually broke up a while ago but I haven't been able to find anything I can afford until my current landlord had another place he was looking to rent out and kept he price the same for me instead of uping the rent like his realestate advisor told him to do. I'm truly sorry to hear that, it can't be easy. I also, can't pretend to know as the deaths and sickness hit my fam last year and we were able to visit them. Hopefully, she has a speedy recovery and can get home soon. Not trying to be weird or anything and I know you don't know me but if you need to talk don't hesitate to hit me up brother as we're all going through this together. I'm glade that your town has been able to avoid the coronavirus... I'm from Hamilton and we haven't been hit to bad either. You're right no sports this season and probably a delay for next season but at least the pats dynasty is over. It's good you have somebody to isolate with here it's just me and the old fam I guess. I don't see sports going back to the way they where for a long time if at all but I think tickets will be cheaper out of the gate although that probably won't apply to the leafs. You should definitely grow your playoff beard out again.
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May 5, 2020 at 7:17 a.m.
#15
LongtimeLeafsufferer
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All good, it was for the best. It's not good to constantly bicker and fight in front of the kids and we had done it long enough. We actually broke up a while ago but I haven't been able to find anything I can afford until my current landlord had another place he was looking to rent out and kept he price the same for me instead of uping the rent like his realestate advisor told him to do. I'm truly sorry to hear that, it can't be easy. I also, can't pretend to know as the deaths and sickness hit my fam last year and we were able to visit them. Hopefully, she has a speedy recovery and can get home soon. Not trying to be weird or anything and I know you don't know me but if you need to talk don't hesitate to hit me up brother as we're all going through this together. I'm glade that your town has been able to avoid the coronavirus... I'm from Hamilton and we haven't been hit to bad either. You're right no sports this season and probably a delay for next season but at least the pats dynasty is over. It's good you have somebody to isolate with here it's just me and the old fam I guess. I don't see sports going back to the way they where for a long time if at all but I think tickets will be cheaper out of the gate although that probably won't apply to the leafs. You should definitely grow your playoff beard out again.


Thanks for your good wishes, and your offer to talk I've been pretty open on CapFriendly, but haven't told folks of all my personal journey. My wife was pretty housebound for about three years, and therefore I was too. (hence my number of posts on CapFriendly). Now sadly, she is in a nursing home with no chance of leaving. And the Covid19 quarantine just adds to her aggravation. Of course I feel the pain too.
Sports has always been a good entertainment and a distraction from the reality. Now all of us have to find different ways to keep sane during isolation and social/economic upheavals.
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May 5, 2020 at 1:21 p.m.
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Quoting: palhal
Thanks for your good wishes, and your offer to talk I've been pretty open on CapFriendly, but haven't told folks of all my personal journey. My wife was pretty housebound for about three years, and therefore I was too. (hence my number of posts on CapFriendly). Now sadly, she is in a nursing home with no chance of leaving. And the Covid19 quarantine just adds to her aggravation. Of course I feel the pain too.
Sports has always been a good entertainment and a distraction from the reality. Now all of us have to find different ways to keep sane during isolation and social/economic upheavals.


These are tough times, hold strong man.
Sending good thoughts your way and to your wife.
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May 5, 2020 at 10:29 p.m.
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Quoting: palhal
Thanks for your good wishes, and your offer to talk I've been pretty open on CapFriendly, but haven't told folks of all my personal journey. My wife was pretty housebound for about three years, and therefore I was too. (hence my number of posts on CapFriendly). Now sadly, she is in a nursing home with no chance of leaving. And the Covid19 quarantine just adds to her aggravation. Of course I feel the pain too.
Sports has always been a good entertainment and a distraction from the reality. Now all of us have to find different ways to keep sane during isolation and social/economic upheavals.


I'm truly sorry to hear that and I wish I could do more to help but I will send good thoughts and prayers yours and her way. Like I said anytime you need to talk I'm just a message away😁. I also know about being housebound for years and watching sports was my only escape too.
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May 5, 2020 at 10:29 p.m.
#18
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Quoting: Trickster
These are tough times, hold strong man.
Sending good thoughts your way and to your wife.


💯
May 7, 2020 at 12:06 p.m.
#19
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Quoting: Sign_em_up000000
@jack_ I'm not sure if you will get this as your handle didn't pop up so I typed it in but how have you been? I'm going to check in with everyone over the next few days and I enjoyed our converstion we were having last, I can't remember what reply I had but I will try to get to it over the next few days. Anyways I just wanted to check in and see how you are doing? Sorry it took so long my phone is on its last legs I got a new one but it will take me a few days to get it up and running as I'm moving tomorrow and will have to unpack.


ive been alright bud, pretty bored but just working away. How have you been? not to worry about the last response, its tough with everything being closed but its good that youre getting settled in
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May 22, 2020 at 10:07 p.m.
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Quoting: Jack_
ive been alright bud, pretty bored but just working away. How have you been? not to worry about the last response, its tough with everything being closed but its good that youre getting settled in


That's good to hear. I'm good just busy working and watching the kids and unpacking lol. It sucks have to keep waiting inline to get in anywhere and here the lines usually go around the stores so it takes an hour to get in anywhere.
May 22, 2020 at 10:12 p.m.
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Quoting: Trickster
These are tough times, hold strong man.
Sending good thoughts your way and to your wife.


What's up bud? Sorry it took so long I'm still unpacking lol I haven't had much of a chance to unpack with work and having the kiddos over. How ya been?
May 22, 2020 at 10:16 p.m.
#22
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Quoting: oneX
I'm not going to bother speculating what the cap will be next season because at least here in Canada, we have not lifted any restrictions yet and based on what officials say, they will not be lifted soon.

Lifting these restrictions will be a big deal but can't be done too soon because a second lockdown will hurt more than this one is hurting.

I will say tho...I believe there will NOT be any fans at arenas next season because I believe that a slow lifting of restrictions is what should/will happen and that affects revenues in the future, nevermind the current situation.

Random is right that the NHLPA is going to be the ones taking the hit for all this.

The question I have is whether these leagues (NHL, NBA, NFL, MLB) will go to their partner networks and ask for a bigger return on their t.v. deals.

Btw...just a quick comment on the NHL and t.v. deals: very important they get a deal done with ESPN.


What's up buddy, how ya been? I've been busy roofing and hang out with the kids. Hopefully all is well and your safe.
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May 23, 2020 at 2:31 a.m.
#23
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What's up buddy, how ya been? I've been busy roofing and hang out with the kids. Hopefully all is well and your safe.


All good bruh. I tagged you once or twice wanting your opinion on stuff...not sure you got the alert with your phone issues.

Interested to hear what you have to say about what happens when the NHL returns and your expectations of what the reality of the cap is.
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May 24, 2020 at 6:39 p.m.
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Quoting: oneX
All good bruh. I tagged you once or twice wanting your opinion on stuff...not sure you got the alert with your phone issues.

Interested to hear what you have to say about what happens when the NHL returns and your expectations of what the reality of the cap is.


I didn't get the alerts. I have another phone but I have to write down all of my contact info and such before I can switch the phones.

It's hard to say because we haven't been hit with the second wave of this yet, but I think the league will limit how many people can come to games based on the capacity of each arena until this goes away for good. Also, as of right now I think the cap will be the same but it's all depending on how long this lasts more so the second wave. If this drags into next season the cap will drop I'm not sure how much as your guess is as good as mine but if that happens alot of players will be playing overseas because teams won't be able to pay them what they want or players will have to start taking massive discounts if they want to play in the NHL. I'm not sure if that answers your questions bit that's my take on what will happen as of rn.
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May 24, 2020 at 11:08 p.m.
#25
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Quoting: Sign_em_up000000
What's up bud? Sorry it took so long I'm still unpacking lol I haven't had much of a chance to unpack with work and having the kiddos over. How ya been?


I completely support sports not returning at all as I think the human cost is too high.

At the same time its becoming a daily struggle to copp with current state of things.
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