Hall isn’t going to Edmonton

7.5 million for the 50th place goalie in the league. Yikes. Why not keep the 15th best goalie in the league.

The money is too much but I would take Holtby over Koskinen. One bad season doesn't make a career. EDM should try to bring a real good goalie behind Koskinen, not necessarily Holtby but a good fringe starter.

3 bad seasons. It's a pattern, and not a good one.

HALL AND HOLTBY

Why do you hate the Oilers?!

Average in '17-18, good in '18-19 and bad this season.
Koskinen was average last year and good this season.

I, for one, have more faith in Holtby but if you want Koskinen, okay.

Everyone hates the Oilers - it is fashionable!

If we set the filter at 20 GP and look at save percentage, here's where Holtby landed:

2017-18: 43rd of 56 (average backup level)
2018-19: 32th of 60 (just below starter quality)
2019-20: 52nd of 57 (AHL level)

Any GM giving this guy this kind of deal should be banned from every NHL front office forever.

Holtby will easily make $6,5M-$7M.

And SV% isn't good enough to judge how good a goalie is. A .920%-.930% SV% means the G is probably really good and below .900%, bad. But between, it can vary. So that's why you need to use Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx).


Holtby:

(G having played 10+ GP)

'17-18: GSAx of -0.30 (31st/71 G)
'18-19: GSAx of 10.06 (8th/70 G)
'19-20 so far: GSAx of -12.82 (58th/66 G)

As I said


FYI Koskinen
'18-19: GSAx of -4.58 (39th/70 G)
'19-20 so far: GSAx of 5.01 (13th/66 G)

Stats via Evolving-Hockey

The trouble with expected goal stats is twofold: (1) they vary from site to site, as each statistician try's to come up with a better formula, and (2) they aren't terribly good at predicting future goals anyhow.

I think the most widely used site is naturalstattrick.com, so I'll show their GSAA and GSAA/60 for Holtby in relation to every other goalie to play at least 1000 minutes in each of the past 3 seasons. GSAA is the difference between expected goals against and actual goals against.

GSAA
2017-18: -8.37 (45th of 58 goalies)
2018-19: +1.87 (30th of 60)
2019-20: -16.81 (57th of 58)

GSAA/60
2017-18: -0.16 (43rd of 58)
2018-19: +0.03 (32nd of 60)
2019-20: -0.37 (53rd of 58)

The best you could say about the past 3 years was that in 18-19 he was the worst starter in the league. The other seasons he was well below starter quality.

If you want Holtby on your team, be my guest. We don't want him on the Edmonton Oilers.

FYI here are Koskinen's numbers:

2018-19: -6.21 (49th of 60)
2019-20: +9.11 (15th of 58)

I have no idea why Chiarelli gave him a 3 x $4.5M contract in the middle of a sub-par 2018-19 campaign (although most of Chiarelli's moves mystify me to this day), but he has bounced back and is performing well enough to cover the contract so far.

Another way to look at it is how did other goalies fare with the same team in front of them? Over the past two years (combined)

Samsonov: +0.19 GSAA/60 (2.55 GAA / .913 sv%)
Holtby: -0.03 GSAA/60 (2.95 GAA / .905 sv%)
Copley: -0.04 GSAA/60 (2.90 GAA / .905 sv%)

Would you sign Copley to a $7.5M deal? Of course not.

Oilers goalies:

Koskinen: +0.18 GSAA/60 (2.87 GAA / .911 sv%)
Smith: -0.08 GSAA/60 (2.95 GAA / .902 sv%)
Stolarz: -0.32 GSAA/60 (3.77 GAA / .897 sv%)
Talbot: -0.38 GSAA/60 (3.36 GAA / .893 sv%)

Holtby is a proven netminder. He is having a down year. ill agree with yall that he should cost 6-7 mill but for him to go to edmonton it would cost extra. I ALSO THINK SAMSONOV SHOULD'VE GONE TO ALL STAR GAME NOT HOLTBY

Grant Fuhr is a proven netminder too. What's your point? Holtby has been subpar for 3 years now as I have shown above.

If you look at the Caps defense over the last few years Orlov and Carlson are their great defenseman. And Fuhr was. He doesnt play anymore so WAS. Orlov and Carlson are good. Kempny i am not so high on. Jensen is not a top 4 defenseman. Siegenthaler has the potential otherwise theyre screwed. Defense isnt good.

Look at the numbers I provided. Holtby's performance mirrors Copley's, who played behind the exact same defense. Holtby is a backup quality goalie. You're paying him like he's a top-5.

Bad move.