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Lowetide and Willis

Created by: BeterChiarelli
Team: 2020-21 Edmonton Oilers
Initial Creation Date: Apr. 30, 2020
Published: Apr. 30, 2020
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
They used the term "buzzsaw offence" and I think it very much fits here. The dynamic almost feels like a Western Conference version of the Leafs, but with more physicality and arguably more firepower. Edmonton likely has the better defence, I'd give Toronto the edge in net.

Flames use their CBO on Lucic: I've added the $750k in savings to Edmonton's cap hit to reflect that.

Corcoran, Finkelstein, and Zummack signed out of the OHL, NCAA, and WHL respectively. I'm under the impression that Corcoran and Finkelstein are not going to sign with their respective clubs. The two CHL grads will join Gruden and Rodrigue in the ECHL and Finkelstein will play for Bakersfield.

Draft:
#20. (RC) Seth Jarvis (Portland, WHL)
#46 (via CBJ). (LW) Lukas Reichel (Berlin, DEL)
#65 (via SJS). (RD) Michael Benning (Sherwood Park, AJHL)
#82. (RW) Brandon Coe (North Bay, OHL)
#98 (via ANA). (G) Jan Bednar (Sokolov, Czech2)

Larsson and the $1.8M in dead cap expiring next year is used to extend RNH with the Hayes contract, "bridge" Yamamoto for 3 years, and find a bottom-pairing RHD replacement. Kassian is sold to Seattle during expansion, and McLeod makes the roster as the #4C next season. I'd anticipate the raise in the salary cap to cover bonus overages for this season.
Free Agent Signings
RESERVE LISTYEARSCAP HIT
2$825,000
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
3$3,250,000
2$1,750,000
2$800,000
2$800,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$1,350,000
2$2,750,000
6$8,500,000
2$3,500,000
CREATEDYEARSCAP HIT
Corcoran, Connor
3$925,000
Finkelstein, Benjamin
3$925,000
Zummack, Eli
3$925,000
Trades
1.
EDM
    CBO
    2.
    EDM
    1. Gáborík, Marián
    2. Gruden, Jonathan
    3. 2020 2nd round pick (CBJ)
    4. 2021 5th round pick (EDM)
    OTT
    1. Puljujärvi, Jesse [Reserve List]
    2. Russell, Kris
    3. 2022 3rd round pick (EDM)
    Additional Details:
    Edmonton pays Russell's signing bonus on July 1st
    3.
    EDM
    1. 2020 3rd round pick (SJS)
    2. 2022 5th round pick (DET)
    DET
    1. Benning, Matthew [RFA Rights]
    4.
    EDM
    1. Weal, Jordan
    2. 2020 4th round pick (ANA)
    Buyouts
    Retained Salary Transactions
    Buried
    DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
    2020
    Logo of the EDM
    Logo of the CBJ
    Logo of the SJS
    Logo of the EDM
    Logo of the ANA
    Logo of the EDM
    Logo of the EDM
    Logo of the EDM
    2021
    Logo of the EDM
    Logo of the EDM
    Logo of the EDM
    Logo of the EDM
    Logo of the PIT
    Logo of the EDM
    Logo of the EDM
    2022
    Logo of the EDM
    Logo of the EDM
    Logo of the EDM
    Logo of the DET
    Logo of the EDM
    Logo of the EDM
    Logo of the EDM
    ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
    22$82,250,000$82,506,032$341,534$730,000-$256,032

    Roster

    Left WingCentreRight Wing
    Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
    $6,000,000$6,000,000
    LW, C
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
    $12,500,000$12,500,000
    C
    UFA - 6
    Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
    $1,350,000$1,350,000
    LW, RW
    UFA - 1
    $8,500,000$8,500,000
    LW
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
    $8,500,000$8,500,000
    C, LW
    UFA - 5
    Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
    $894,166$894,166 (Performance Bonus$230,000$230K)
    RW
    RFA - 1
    Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
    $3,250,000$3,250,000
    LW, RW
    UFA - 1
    $3,500,000$3,500,000
    C, LW
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
    $3,200,000$3,200,000
    RW
    UFA - 4
    Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
    $875,000$875,000
    LW
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
    $915,000$915,000
    C
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
    $1,500,000$1,500,000
    RW, LW
    UFA - 2
    Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
    Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
    $5,600,000$5,600,000
    LD
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
    $1,750,000$1,750,000
    RD
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
    $4,500,000$4,500,000
    G
    M-NTC
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
    $4,167,000$4,167,000
    LD
    UFA - 3
    Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
    $4,166,666$4,166,666
    RD
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
    $850,000$850,000
    LD/RD
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
    $863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$500,000$500K)
    RD
    RFA - 3
    $2,750,000$2,750,000
    G
    UFA - 2
    ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
    Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
    $800,000$800,000
    LD/RD
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Ottawa Senators
    $4,875,000$4,875,000
    RW
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
    $700,000$700,000
    LW
    UFA - 1

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    Apr. 30, 2020 at 7:26 p.m.
    #1
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    @Copenhagen @ConnorMcHellebucyk @ConnorMcDavid97 @oilersfan55 @Oilersfan71 @CzechingOut @Mayb81 @Goilersfan1215 @Bluetomorrow83 @jassan28 @hockeyconnor97 @CD282

    I'm not a fan of signing Hall, but that recent Athletic article made me put pen to paper. Thoughts?
    Apr. 30, 2020 at 7:31 p.m.
    #2
    GoCanada
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    Quoting: BeterChiarelli
    @Copenhagen @ConnorMcHellebucyk @ConnorMcDavid97 @oilersfan55 @Oilersfan71 @CzechingOut @Mayb81 @Goilersfan1215 @Bluetomorrow83 @jassan28 @hockeyconnor97 @CD282

    I'm not a fan of signing Hall, but that recent Athletic article made me put pen to paper. Thoughts?


    I am a big Oilers fan and I am a fan of signing Hall because his play should not be judged because of his game under terrible management and coaching. Considering how poor we developed prospects back then, Hall turned out better than ever and can have amazing stability in his career with the Oilers. I see the leadership thing but our McDavid, Draisaitl and Hall core is the Crosby, Malkin and Kessel in Pittsburgh
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    Apr. 30, 2020 at 7:35 p.m.
    #3
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    Quoting: jassan28
    I am a big Oilers fan and I am a fan of signing Hall because his play should not be judged because of his game under terrible management and coaching. Considering how poor we developed prospects back then, Hall turned out better than ever and can have amazing stability in his career with the Oilers. I see the leadership thing but our McDavid, Draisaitl and Hall core is the Crosby, Malkin and Kessel in Pittsburgh


    I'm more concerned about the odds he injures himself really badly over the course of that deal and that it makes the cap a nightmare over the next few seasons. If he produces as well as he has over the past few seasons, I'd almost guarantee multiple cups over the next 5 seasons.
    Apr. 30, 2020 at 7:36 p.m.
    #4
    Buljujarvi
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    I'm not a huge fan of signing hall. I think the money should go to better goaltending and a good rhd.
    Apr. 30, 2020 at 7:42 p.m.
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    Quoting: ConnorMcHellebucyk
    I'm not a huge fan of signing hall. I think the money should go to better goaltending and a good rhd.


    I agree with the goaltending, but I disagree on the better RHD. We already have Larsson, Benning, Bear, and Bouchard. We are good for RHD in my opinion.
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    Apr. 30, 2020 at 7:46 p.m.
    #6
    Buljujarvi
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    Quoting: Nhl_oilers
    I agree with the goaltending, but I disagree on the better RHD. We already have Larsson, Benning, Bear, and Bouchard. We are good for RHD in my opinion.


    Alright, I see your point. But we need an upgrade on the wings at least. If the opportunity presents itself for a upgrade on defense, Holland should take it.
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    Apr. 30, 2020 at 7:49 p.m.
    #7
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    Quoting: ConnorMcHellebucyk
    I'm not a huge fan of signing hall. I think the money should go to better goaltending and a good rhd.


    Quoting: ConnorMcHellebucyk
    Alright, I see your point. But we need an upgrade on the wings at least. If the opportunity presents itself for a upgrade on defense, Holland should take it.


    You want an upgrade on the wings, and the blueline doesn't exactly need an upgrade, so I'm not sold on your disdain on signing Hall.

    It'll be hard to find an upgrade to the goaltenders without dropping over $10M on Koskinen and a Lehner-type. That money is best used elsewhere, and I don't know where you find a better winger than Hall in the current UFA market.
    Apr. 30, 2020 at 7:49 p.m.
    #8
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    Quoting: ConnorMcHellebucyk
    Alright, I see your point. But we need an upgrade on the wings at least. If the opportunity presents itself for a upgrade on defense, Holland should take it.


    I agree, is Holland sees an opportunity we should take it, and ya I would like to spend a good chuck of the money on wingers.
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    Apr. 30, 2020 at 8:00 p.m.
    #9
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    1. Hall never had chemistry with McDavid. They both prefer to have the puck at all times. It is hard to imagine a line with better chemistry than RNH/Draisaitl/Yamo have already. There is not a logical place on the roster for Hall.
    2. Hall is going to cost what it would cost to sign a respectable 3C AND a decent backup goalie COMBINED. Signing a good 3C and a great backup is going to have a much more positive impact on the team's performance over a season than Hall possibly could. It would also be better long-term to free up cap space to lock down great young RFAs to long-term sweetheart contracts. Like imagine if they could lock down Ethan Bear long-term instead of doing a bridge deal? They already made the mistake of not getting Nurse long-term for cheap and now it is really going to cost the team when he demands UFA pay. Smarter uses for the team's money.
    3. Hall is no spring chicken anymore. He is injured a lot.
    4. If they are going to pay what Hall is going to command as a UFA, then why him? For a little bit more, you might be able get a real difference-maker like Alex Pietrangelo, for a little bit less you could get someone like Hoffman or Dadonov.
    Apr. 30, 2020 at 8:16 p.m.
    #10
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    Just food for thought. You could probably get for the price of Hall 2 20 goal scorers on each side of the wing for McDavid.
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    Apr. 30, 2020 at 8:18 p.m.
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    Quoting: Db_2984
    1. Hall never had chemistry with McDavid. They both prefer to have the puck at all times. It is hard to imagine a line with better chemistry than RNH/Draisaitl/Yamo have already. There is not a logical place on the roster for Hall.
    2. Hall is going to cost what it would cost to sign a respectable 3C AND a decent backup goalie COMBINED. Signing a good 3C and a great backup is going to have a much more positive impact on the team's performance over a season than Hall possibly could. It would also be better long-term to free up cap space to lock down great young RFAs to long-term sweetheart contracts. Like imagine if they could lock down Ethan Bear long-term instead of doing a bridge deal? They already made the mistake of not getting Nurse long-term for cheap and now it is really going to cost the team when he demands UFA pay. Smarter uses for the team's money.
    3. Hall is no spring chicken anymore. He is injured a lot.
    4. If they are going to pay what Hall is going to command as a UFA, then why him? For a little bit more, you might be able get a real difference-maker like Alex Pietrangelo, for a little bit less you could get someone like Hoffman or Dadonov.


    Glad to see you took a super thorough look at the roster.

    1. Hall and Draisaitl have a known chemistry, and it has a larger sample size than the DYNamite Line had this season. Nugent-Hopkins and McDavid have had chemistry in the past, and Hall and McDavid ran the show at the 2016 World Championships. The sample size they have together is tiny, and worth looking further into if signed. Adding Hall to this roster as either the #1LW or #2LW gives Edmonton a huge boost to its forward depth; there's clearly a place on the roster for Hall.

    2. Soderberg and Greiss match those descriptions and Hall cost more. All three made it to the roster, so the money this year isn't an issue.

    You are right in identifying that Bear isn't locked up on a long-term deal, and his next paycheque is going to be much more costly than the one he has now. Ideally, cap raises, Sekera's buyout coming off the books, and Bouchard taking the mantle as the #1RD on the team keep Bear's big boy contract at around the $5M mark. Fortunately, Bear will still be under club control by the time his bridge deal expires. Nurse's deal is very situational: he wanted a UFA payday this offseason but hasn't specifically warranted anything more than what Josh Morrisey signed for. Edmonton has all of next season to re-up Nurse at a $7M cap hit if they so want: the money works as all of the depth UFA signings were designed to expire when Bear, Bouchard, Jones, and Nurse needed new deals. It's likely that Benson, McLeod, and the winner of Konovalov vs. Rodrigue find themselves on the 23-24 roster on very cheap deals. I don't think future money - so long as the team properly manages its cap appropriately and the new TV deal is as lucrative as it's expected to be - is going to be an issue until McDavid is up for another payday.

    You are however, dead wrong about the positive impact that a depth center and backup would have over adding Hall. Be it GAR or WAR, Hall's net impact on the team easily outweighs depth signings. Hall pushes Athanasiou or Ennis to the third line, making the team deeper. Not adding that caliber of winger means that both Athanasiou and Ennis must play as top-six wingers.

    3. That's the risk in this signing. That's the only part of it I'm iffy on. I don't think Hall will be able to max out on AAV due to the flat cap and will settle for a deal with term instead, but it's likely he doesn't finish the deal.

    4. What room is there for Pietrangelo? What benefit is there in giving term to UFAs past the 30-year mark? Hoffman and Dadonov are fine substitutes to Hall - and should come in 2 years and $2M cheaper - but the Oilers should have no interest in Pietrangelo without flipping Larsson. I'd wager there's more risk in going long-term with Pietrangelo than there is with Hall.
    Apr. 30, 2020 at 8:18 p.m.
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    Quoting: BeterChiarelli
    I'm more concerned about the odds he injures himself really badly over the course of that deal and that it makes the cap a nightmare over the next few seasons. If he produces as well as he has over the past few seasons, I'd almost guarantee multiple cups over the next 5 seasons.


    Totally agree. You could get either Hoffman or Dadonov and a goalie for that price. Or Hoffman and Soderberg for that price.
    Apr. 30, 2020 at 8:21 p.m.
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    Quoting: Copenhagen
    Just food for thought. You could probably get for the price of Hall 2 20 goal scorers on each side of the wing for McDavid.


    Care to name them? The UFA market for wingers is abysmal this year. Craig Smith is a maybe, but who takes the LW role? There's no natural LW on the UFA market besides Hall that managed to even get close to 20G/82GP this season. You'd need Namestnikov to not take a pay raise to accomplish that.
    Apr. 30, 2020 at 8:22 p.m.
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    Quoting: Copenhagen
    Totally agree. You could get either Hoffman or Dadonov and a goalie for that price. Or Hoffman and Soderberg for that price.


    Is Thomas Greiss not a goalie anymore??? Soderberg's on this roster too???
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    Apr. 30, 2020 at 8:32 p.m.
    #15
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    Quoting: BeterChiarelli
    Care to name them? The UFA market for wingers is abysmal this year. Craig Smith is a maybe, but who takes the LW role? There's no natural LW on the UFA market besides Hall that managed to even get close to 20G/82GP this season. You'd need Namestnikov to not take a pay raise to accomplish that.


    Namestnikov
    Smith
    Granlund
    Can probably trade for Silverberg without costing to much.
    Dzingal had a bad year but he is a 20 goal guy for cheap and wont cost much
    Vessy is cheap and can do well when paired with decent players, on bad year as well
    I do really like the Hoffman at around 6 million the best with Soderberg
    Apr. 30, 2020 at 8:36 p.m.
    #16
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    Quoting: BeterChiarelli
    Is Thomas Greiss not a goalie anymore??? Soderberg's on this roster too???


    LOve the Greiss signing but I think he will cost a minimum 3 million. Love both of those signings. I think Ennis is going to get over 2 million as well. He is very versatile and deserves more money.
    Apr. 30, 2020 at 8:46 p.m.
    #17
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    Quoting: Copenhagen
    Namestnikov
    Smith
    Granlund
    Can probably trade for Silverberg without costing to much.
    Dzingal had a bad year but he is a 20 goal guy for cheap and wont cost much
    Vessy is cheap and can do well when paired with decent players, on bad year as well
    I do really like the Hoffman at around 6 million the best with Soderberg


    Quoting: Copenhagen
    LOve the Greiss signing but I think he will cost a minimum 3 million. Love both of those signings. I think Ennis is going to get over 2 million as well. He is very versatile and deserves more money.


    I'm not huge on trading for wingers right now unless it's an absolute steal. Dzingel fits that description, but I think Silfverberg costs a lot given Anaheim's position as a maybe-rebuilding team.

    You do not sign Vesey with the intention of him becoming a 20-goal scorer just because he's plopped beside McDavid. That's the same line of thinking that got us into this mess in the first place. He's never hit the 20-goal mark, he's only gotten close. That's the kind of player you sign to be a depth piece and rejoice when he becomes a 20-goal man alongside McDavid. Very similar to Maroon. He was acquired for depth and turned into money. His place alongside McDavid was never a given nor expected.

    The problem with going with two of Granlund, Namestnikov, and Smith is that you're likely losing out on Ennis. I can't personally justify another near $2M contract with term on the fourth line. If he could be had for a payday and a one-year deal, I'd do it.

    In order to give Ennis and Greiss more money, could not running a spare forward (Gambardella and his $700k specifically) be an option? Edmonton's horses have wheels to burn and giving McDavid or Draisaitl an extra shift to burn weaker competition could be the difference in games against top competition. I believe that would allow me to offer Greiss $3M and bump Ennis up to $1.85M maximum, but it would make mid-season moves (injuries, god forbid a rental) difficult.

    I'm on board the Hoffman train personally, but arguing the position for Hall. If this is the deal he wants, it's very hard to say no to.
    Apr. 30, 2020 at 8:50 p.m.
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    The Vessy paragraph is like take out Vessy and put in Ennis who hasnt score 20 goals in like 10 years.
    I am totally on board the Hoffman train too. Hey will put up 50 with McDavid and Kassian.
    Apr. 30, 2020 at 8:55 p.m.
    #19
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    Quoting: Copenhagen
    The Vessy paragraph is like take out Vessy and put in Ennis who hasnt score 20 goals in like 10 years.
    I am totally on board the Hoffman train too. Hey will put up 50 with McDavid and Kassian.


    But he has done it, and the small sample size he does have with McDavid projects him for 18. Vesey's never eclipsed 17.
    Apr. 30, 2020 at 9:22 p.m.
    #20
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    Quoting: BeterChiarelli
    I'm more concerned about the odds he injures himself really badly over the course of that deal and that it makes the cap a nightmare over the next few seasons. If he produces as well as he has over the past few seasons, I'd almost guarantee multiple cups over the next 5 seasons.


    I agree with the injury concerns, that's my huge hangup about signing Hall. If you look at his overall production (which accounts for missed time due to injuries) over the past few seasons, I don't see how it guarantees any Cups.

    Taking the past 3 seasons combined, Hall was just 50th in the league in scoring. Several from this summer's UFA list did as well or better:

    Hoffman: 87-98-185
    Dadonov: 81-101-182
    Hall: 66-116-182

    You're essentially adding another Nuge, who went 74-104-178 in the same timeframe. Herein lies the rub: how do you justify paying RNH $1.5M less than Hall when he brings equivalent production and adds the ability to play center and is one of the better penalty killers in the league?

    Regarding this summer, I think value can be found in getting 2 guys for the price of 1 Hall. Here are some UFAs and their production over the past 3 years:

    Granlund: 54-97-151
    Toffoli: 61-64-125
    Soderberg: 56-65-121*
    Smith: 64-56-120
    Galchenyuk: 46-70-116
    Namestnikov: 50-60-110
    Marleau: 54-52-106
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    Apr. 30, 2020 at 9:34 p.m.
    #21
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    Quoting: Db_2984
    1. Hall never had chemistry with McDavid. They both prefer to have the puck at all times. It is hard to imagine a line with better chemistry than RNH/Draisaitl/Yamo have already. There is not a logical place on the roster for Hall.
    2. Hall is going to cost what it would cost to sign a respectable 3C AND a decent backup goalie COMBINED. Signing a good 3C and a great backup is going to have a much more positive impact on the team's performance over a season than Hall possibly could. It would also be better long-term to free up cap space to lock down great young RFAs to long-term sweetheart contracts. Like imagine if they could lock down Ethan Bear long-term instead of doing a bridge deal? They already made the mistake of not getting Nurse long-term for cheap and now it is really going to cost the team when he demands UFA pay. Smarter uses for the team's money.
    3. Hall is no spring chicken anymore. He is injured a lot.
    4. If they are going to pay what Hall is going to command as a UFA, then why him? For a little bit more, you might be able get a real difference-maker like Alex Pietrangelo, for a little bit less you could get someone like Hoffman or Dadonov.


    1. Not true at all. They only played 75 minutes together and produced very, very good results in that little time.
    2. I'd wager that Hall will cost MORE than a good 3C + 2G, easily. You could probably add a pretty decent winger with the difference.
    3. Injuries are a huge concern here. Is he going to have fewer injuries as he enters his thirties? Not likely.
    4. Agreed about Hoffman and Dadonov, although they're older. That likely just means they'll accept a lot less term though, which isn't a bad thing at all. I'm not sure I see the point in pursuing a guy like Pietrangelo though.
    Apr. 30, 2020 at 9:35 p.m.
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    Quoting: Copenhagen
    Just food for thought. You could probably get for the price of Hall 2 20 goal scorers on each side of the wing for McDavid.


    See post #20.
    Apr. 30, 2020 at 9:35 p.m.
    #23
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    Quoting: BeterChiarelli
    Care to name them? The UFA market for wingers is abysmal this year. Craig Smith is a maybe, but who takes the LW role? There's no natural LW on the UFA market besides Hall that managed to even get close to 20G/82GP this season. You'd need Namestnikov to not take a pay raise to accomplish that.


    See post #20.
    Apr. 30, 2020 at 9:36 p.m.
    #24
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    Quoting: BeterChiarelli
    Is Thomas Greiss not a goalie anymore??? Soderberg's on this roster too???


    I fully endorse those 2 additions.
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    Apr. 30, 2020 at 9:38 p.m.
    #25
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    Joined: Mar. 2017
    Posts: 23,753
    Likes: 7,634
    Quoting: Copenhagen
    LOve the Greiss signing but I think he will cost a minimum 3 million. Love both of those signings. I think Ennis is going to get over 2 million as well. He is very versatile and deserves more money.


    Willis (I think) talked about Ennis returning if they could get him at something close to his current salary, which I thought was interesting.
     
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