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Bear and Poolparty for Kapanen and Liljgren

Created by: csick
Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: May 5, 2020
Published: May 5, 2020
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2020
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May 5, 2020 at 8:12 p.m.
#76
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Quoting: swinny
Kassian ahead of Kappy. I stopped there lol.


Him and McDavid have great chemistry didnt once say he was better then kap🤦🏽‍♀️ Leaf fan are clueless
May 5, 2020 at 8:19 p.m.
#77
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Quoting: Cheddamonkey37
Him and McDavid have great chemistry didnt once say he was better then kap🤦🏽‍♀️ Leaf fan are clueless


So, chemistry can make a 3rd line player top 6, but a legit top 6 as a Leaf he is still 3rd line? Not clueless, but this valuation is getting interesting.
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May 5, 2020 at 8:22 p.m.
#78
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Quoting: CD282
5v5 G/60
Kassian: 1.03
Yamamoto: 1.00
Kapanen: 0.70

5v5 P/60
Yamamoto: 3.16
Kassian: 2.21
Kapanen: 1.90

It's not obvious to me that Kapanen would play on a top-6 line in Edmonton.


Yamamoto has looked good this season.

Chiasson's production doubled when he played with McDavid. Kassian's stats are super inflated.

Also you're statistics are deceptive because they only look at a very specific time period...
May 5, 2020 at 8:25 p.m.
#79
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Quoting: CD282
5v5 G/60
Kassian: 1.03
Yamamoto: 1.00
Kapanen: 0.70

5v5 P/60
Yamamoto: 3.16
Kassian: 2.21
Kapanen: 1.90

It's not obvious to me that Kapanen would play on a top-6 line in Edmonton.


Yakamoto is the bomb. But until he played with McJesus, Kassian was third line material. Good third line material, but nevertheless 3rd line material.

Think I am discovering how gun shy Oilers fans may be...... and given the gross mismanagement of assets in the past, understandable.

Given that..... Leafs fans can be the same.

Still, Bear is worth a smidge more than Kappy. I maintain his long term value on that blueline outweighs what Kappy would bring to the Oilers. That doesn't undervalue Kappy.... which seems to be the argument here. Most of you are.
CD282 liked this.
May 5, 2020 at 8:25 p.m.
#80
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Quoting: swinny
So, chemistry can make a 3rd line player top 6, but a legit top 6 as a Leaf he is still 3rd line? Not clueless, but this valuation is getting interesting.


Not a legit top 6 so I’ll stop u right there if u watch edm you would see kassian creates a lot of space for mcdavid and also who knows if kap would fit with mcdavid look how AA fit for the quick short period of time...
May 5, 2020 at 8:26 p.m.
#81
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Quoting: swinny
Yakamoto is the bomb. But until he played with McJesus, Kassian was third line material. Good third line material, but nevertheless 3rd line material.

Think I am discovering how gun shy Oilers fans may be...... and given the gross mismanagement of assets in the past, understandable.

Given that..... Leafs fans can be the same.

Still, Bear is worth a smidge more than Kappy. I maintain his long term value on that blueline outweighs what Kappy would bring to the Oilers. That doesn't undervalue Kappy.... which seems to be the argument here. Most of you are.


Kassian looked like 4th line enforcer material until he played with McDavid
swinny liked this.
May 5, 2020 at 8:27 p.m.
#82
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Quoting: Cheddamonkey37
Not a legit top 6 so I’ll stop u right there if u watch edm you would see kassian creates a lot of space for mcdavid and also who knows if kap would fit with mcdavid look how AA fit for the quick short period of time...


McDavid makes his own space cause he's twice as fast as everyone else.
May 5, 2020 at 8:29 p.m.
#83
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Quoting: Leafs_and_Sens_Fan
McDavid makes his own space cause he's twice as fast as everyone else.


In the neutral zone and on the rush yes look at when they are controlling the play in the o zone...
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May 5, 2020 at 8:29 p.m.
#84
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Quoting: Leafs_and_Sens_Fan
Yamamoto has looked good this season.

Chiasson's production doubled when he played with McDavid. Kassian's stats are super inflated.

Also you're statistics are deceptive because they only look at a very specific time period...


Very specific time period... as in "this entire season so far." Nothing deceptive about that.

Also, Kassian has good chemistry with McDavid and also brings a physical element to the line that Kapanen couldn't. Again, it's not obvious that Kapanen would get a top-6 role in Edmonton.
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May 5, 2020 at 8:29 p.m.
#85
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Quoting: Leafs_and_Sens_Fan
Kassian looked like 4th line enforcer material until he played with McDavid


Especially when he was struggling with substance abuse, which he has just sorted out in the past 2-3 years. He has skill, you know.
May 5, 2020 at 8:37 p.m.
#86
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Quoting: swinny
Yakamoto is the bomb. But until he played with McJesus, Kassian was third line material. Good third line material, but nevertheless 3rd line material.

Think I am discovering how gun shy Oilers fans may be...... and given the gross mismanagement of assets in the past, understandable.

Given that..... Leafs fans can be the same.

Still, Bear is worth a smidge more than Kappy. I maintain his long term value on that blueline outweighs what Kappy would bring to the Oilers. That doesn't undervalue Kappy.... which seems to be the argument here. Most of you are.


I don't think it's "gun shy" though, I think you touched on it later in your post: it doesn't make sense to trade from a position of perennial need (RHD) to a position of relative strength (RW), even if the trade is a slight win - and this one isn't. Edmonton already has 2 top-6 RW* that they're happy with, adding a third doesn't have nearly as much value to Edmonton as deleting one of their few RHD from the roster.

Note Rafael Lavoie is on his way and Puljujarvi could (theoretically) return next year. There just isn't any motivation for Edmonton to pull the trigger on this.
May 5, 2020 at 8:54 p.m.
#87
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Quoting: CD282
I don't think it's "gun shy" though, I think you touched on it later in your post: it doesn't make sense to trade from a position of perennial need (RHD) to a position of relative strength (RW), even if the trade is a slight win - and this one isn't. Edmonton already has 2 top-6 RW* that they're happy with, adding a third doesn't have nearly as much value to Edmonton as deleting one of their few RHD from the roster.

Note Rafael Lavoie is on his way and Puljujarvi could (theoretically) return next year. There just isn't any motivation for Edmonton to pull the trigger on this.


That's fine. Kapanen is constantly undervalued by other teams. I can say confidently he'd be in your top 6. Toronto isn't looking to trade him anyway.

I can't speak for @swinny but as for myself I was just trying to point out that the difference between Kapanen and Bear definitely isn't Liljegren or anything close to that.
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May 5, 2020 at 9:13 p.m.
#88
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Quoting: Leafs_and_Sens_Fan
That's fine. Kapanen is constantly undervalued by other teams. I can say confidently he'd be in your top 6. Toronto isn't looking to trade him anyway.

I can't speak for @swinny but as for myself I was just trying to point out that the difference between Kapanen and Bear definitely isn't Liljegren or anything close to that.


I agree. Maybe a mid round pick. Maybe.
May 5, 2020 at 9:15 p.m.
#89
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Quoting: Cheddamonkey37
Not a legit top 6 so I’ll stop u right there if u watch edm you would see kassian creates a lot of space for mcdavid and also who knows if kap would fit with mcdavid look how AA fit for the quick short period of time...


Have you watched Kapanen? He creates a lot of space too. Tougher than u think
May 6, 2020 at 3:13 a.m.
#90
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Quoting: CD282
Petry was better than Schultz and Gilbert on the Oilers, that's for sure.


You're the one bringing up Pesce and Parayko though. The comparison is really awkward. Try using Letang or Ellis or Spurgeon.


Was he? I don't remember Petry being any good on Oilers. But I give you that.

Well yes, I'm bringing the Pesce and Parayko up.. but if you wanna use Letang, Ellis or Spurgeon.. so be it. It's still bs comparison because those players are several levels better than Bear. Until Bear proves it yearly, he is not in the same conversation when it comes to value. Not even close.
May 6, 2020 at 3:16 a.m.
#91
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Quoting: Db_2984
Agile puck-moving defence men are the hottest commodity in the NHL right now. By contrast, there are at least two dozen wingers like Kapanen. Kapanen and Bear are not in the same class of value to a team. No way would Holland lose an RFA RHD like Bear for someone like Kapanen, who is good, but is fairly overpaid.


Overpaid? 😂😂😂😂 He makes 3.2M AAV and is on most teams a top 6 winger 😂 Bear is good, but there are like dozen of Bears as well.
May 6, 2020 at 8:11 a.m.
#92
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Quoting: SammyT_51

Well yes, I'm bringing the Pesce and Parayko up.. but if you wanna use Letang, Ellis or Spurgeon.. so be it. It's still bs comparison because those players are several levels better than Bear. Until Bear proves it yearly, he is not in the same conversation when it comes to value. Not even close.


Time will tell, of course. Here are all 4 players boxcars from their 22-year-old season:

Letang: 73, 3- 24-27 +1 (3rd full NHL season)
Ellis: 80, 6-21-27 +9 (1st full season)
Spurgeon: 70, 3-20-23 -4 (1st full season, although he played 53 games the prior year)
Bear: 71, 5-16-21 -4

Some of these guys got more PP opportunity than others, so here's their 5v5 scoring numbers:

Letang: 2-18-20 (1st pairing)
Bear: 71, 4-15-19 (1st pairing)
Ellis: 6-13-19 (3rd pairing)
Spurgeon: 70, 1-9-10 (2nd / 1st pairing)

Sure Bear needs to prove he can sustain this level of play, but it's not obvious from what I can see that these guys are "several levels" better.

As far as value goes, Bear probably has just as much as Spurgeon and Letang for two key reasons: cap hit and age. At 33, Letang doesn't have very many great years ahead - he's already sustained several serious injuries in his career - and his $7.25M cap hit until he's 35 is significant. Spurgeon has less upside than Letang and although he's a little younger, his $7.575M cap hit stretches to cover his 37-year-old season which is prohibitive for most teams.

It could be argued that Bear has at least equal trade value to Letang, greater value than Spurgeon and less value than Ellis.
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May 6, 2020 at 8:18 a.m.
#93
GM Hockeysaurus Rex
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Quoting: CD282
Time will tell, of course. Here are all 4 players boxcars from their 22-year-old season:

Letang: 73, 3- 24-27 +1 (3rd full NHL season)
Ellis: 80, 6-21-27 +9 (1st full season)
Spurgeon: 70, 3-20-23 -4 (1st full season, although he played 53 games the prior year)
Bear: 71, 5-16-21 -4

Some of these guys got more PP opportunity than others, so here's their 5v5 scoring numbers:

Letang: 2-18-20 (1st pairing)
Bear: 71, 4-15-19 (1st pairing)
Ellis: 6-13-19 (3rd pairing)
Spurgeon: 70, 1-9-10 (2nd / 1st pairing)

Sure Bear needs to prove he can sustain this level of play, but it's not obvious from what I can see that these guys are "several levels" better.

As far as value goes, Bear probably has just as much as Spurgeon and Letang for two key reasons: cap hit and age. At 33, Letang doesn't have very many great years ahead - he's already sustained several serious injuries in his career - and his $7.25M cap hit until he's 35 is significant. Spurgeon has less upside than Letang and although he's a little younger, his $7.575M cap hit stretches to cover his 37-year-old season which is prohibitive for most teams.

It could be argued that Bear has at least equal trade value to Letang, greater value than Spurgeon and less value than Ellis.


Of course time will tell.. its that Bear hasnt proven he can sustain this level of play. If he does.. **** yeah his value is that but all those guys didnt have just one good year.. Letang became one of the best offensively dangerous two-way defensemen in the league, Spurgeon is one of the best defensemen in the league and Ellis is probably the best all around two-way D in the league.. Bear is not on that level. Can he be as valuable? **** yeah, I hope! Is he now? No.

As for point totals.. if you base value of defensemen on their points.. its pretty meh way to look at it. Mentioning +/-? Oh boy..
May 6, 2020 at 8:39 a.m.
#94
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Quoting: SammyT_51
Of course time will tell.. its that Bear hasnt proven he can sustain this level of play. If he does.. **** yeah his value is that but all those guys didnt have just one good year.. Letang became one of the best offensively dangerous two-way defensemen in the league, Spurgeon is one of the best defensemen in the league and Ellis is probably the best all around two-way D in the league.. Bear is not on that level. Can he be as valuable? **** yeah, I hope! Is he now? No.

As for point totals.. if you base value of defensemen on their points.. its pretty meh way to look at it. Mentioning +/-? Oh boy..


Where is your statistical arguement? You have nothing but your vapid opinion.
May 6, 2020 at 9:02 a.m.
#95
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Quoting: CD282
Where is your statistical arguement? You have nothing but your vapid opinion.


Its not "vapid" opinion. Its based on many things. Stats are one thing.. but you cant really value defensemen based on them.. Manson would be a wacky player then.. but I cannot find any advanced stats from their early seasons. His defensive numbers were pretty meh.. but he isnt as valuable as those others.. it basically means that 25/31 teams have at least two Spurgeons and Letangs lmao which would lower his value. He is not as valuable as those mentioned.. is he as valuable as a guy like Roy, Cernak, Walker, etc? yeah. Is he Letang, Spurgeon, Ellis level? No..
May 6, 2020 at 2:24 p.m.
#96
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Quoting: CD282
Time will tell, of course. Here are all 4 players boxcars from their 22-year-old season:

Letang: 73, 3- 24-27 +1 (3rd full NHL season)
Ellis: 80, 6-21-27 +9 (1st full season)
Spurgeon: 70, 3-20-23 -4 (1st full season, although he played 53 games the prior year)
Bear: 71, 5-16-21 -4

Some of these guys got more PP opportunity than others, so here's their 5v5 scoring numbers:

Letang: 2-18-20 (1st pairing)
Bear: 71, 4-15-19 (1st pairing)
Ellis: 6-13-19 (3rd pairing)
Spurgeon: 70, 1-9-10 (2nd / 1st pairing)

Sure Bear needs to prove he can sustain this level of play, but it's not obvious from what I can see that these guys are "several levels" better.

As far as value goes, Bear probably has just as much as Spurgeon and Letang for two key reasons: cap hit and age. At 33, Letang doesn't have very many great years ahead - he's already sustained several serious injuries in his career - and his $7.25M cap hit until he's 35 is significant. Spurgeon has less upside than Letang and although he's a little younger, his $7.575M cap hit stretches to cover his 37-year-old season which is prohibitive for most teams.

It could be argued that Bear has at least equal trade value to Letang, greater value than Spurgeon and less value than Ellis.


Stop using numbers and logic on Toronto fans. It's wasted. smile
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May 6, 2020 at 4:03 p.m.
#97
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Quoting: SammyT_51
Its not "vapid" opinion. Its based on many things. Stats are one thing.. but you cant really value defensemen based on them.. Manson would be a wacky player then.. but I cannot find any advanced stats from their early seasons. His defensive numbers were pretty meh.. but he isnt as valuable as those others.. it basically means that 25/31 teams have at least two Spurgeons and Letangs lmao which would lower his value. He is not as valuable as those mentioned.. is he as valuable as a guy like Roy, Cernak, Walker, etc? yeah. Is he Letang, Spurgeon, Ellis level? No..


Should I have said "flaccid" instead? laugh
 
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