Forums/Armchair-GM

Crystall Ball projects Ottawa Senators future contending roster

Created by: jassan28
Initial Creation Date: May 5, 2020
Published: May 5, 2020 at 8:22
Team: 2021-22 Ottawa Senators
Free Agent Signings
RESERVE LISTYEARSCAP HIT
Bernard-Docker, Jacob3$925,000
Pinto, Shane3$925,000
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
Tkachuk, Brady8$7,000,000
Brown, Connor6$4,500,000
Batherson, Drake8$6,500,000
Wolanin, Christian3$2,500,000
Zub, Artem3$2,500,000
Paul, Nicholas3$1,200,000
Balcers, Rūdolfs3$1,200,000
Högberg, Marcus3$4,000,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
Greiss, Thomas2$4,500,000
Granlund, Mikael5$4,500,000
Dzingel, Ryan3$3,750,000
CREATEDYEARSCAP HIT
Byfield, Quinton3$925,000
Stutzle, Tim3$925,000
Grans, Helge3$925,000
Stranges, Antonio3$925,000
Wallinder, William3$925,000
Trades
OTT
  1. Eberle, Jordan
  2. Mayfield, Scott
  3. 2022 1st round pick (NYI)
NYI
  1. Tierney, Chris [RFA Rights]
  2. Duclair, Anthony [RFA Rights]
Buyouts
  • Dion Phaneuf: $354,167
  • Bobby Ryan: $3,583,333
  • Nikita Zaitsev: $1,055,556
DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
2020
OTT
NYI
SJS
OTT
CBJ
DAL
NYI
OTT
WPG
OTT
TBL
SJS
STL
2021
OTT
OTT
CBJ
SJS
OTT
COL
EDM
OTT
OTT
2022
OTT
NYI
OTT
OTT
OTT
OTT
OTT
OTT
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES BONUSESCAP SPACE
23$83,000,000$73,942,222$0$2,857,500$9,057,778
Left WingCenterRight Wing
Stutzle, Tim
$925,000
Byfield, Quinton
$925,000
OTT
Batherson, Drake
$6,500,000
C, RW
UFA - 6
OTT
Tkachuk, Brady
$7,000,000
LW, C
RFA
OTT
Norris, Joshua
$925,000
C
RFA - 1
Granlund, Mikael
$4,500,000
C, RW
UFA - 4
Dzingel, Ryan
$3,750,000
LW, RW, C
UFA - 1
OTT
White, Colin
$4,750,000
RW, C
UFA - 4
OTT
Brown, Connor
$4,500,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
OTT
Formenton, Alex
$747,500
LW
RFA - 1
OTT
Pinto, Shane
$925,000
C
RFA - 2
NYI
Eberle, Jordan
$5,500,000
RW
NTC
UFA - 3
OTT
Paul, Nicholas
$1,200,000
C, LW
UFA - 1
OTT
Balcers, Rūdolfs
$1,200,000
RW, LW
RFA - 2
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
OTT
Chabot, Thomas
$8,000,000
LD
UFA - 7
OTT
Bernard-Docker, Jacob
$925,000
RD
RFA - 2
Greiss, Thomas
$4,500,000
G
UFA - 1
OTT
Brännström, Erik
$863,333
RD
RFA - 1
NYI
Mayfield, Scott
$1,450,000
RD
UFA - 2
OTT
Högberg, Marcus
$4,000,000
G
UFA
OTT
Wolanin, Christian
$2,500,000
LD
UFA - 1
OTT
Zub, Artem
$2,500,000
RD
UFA - 2
OTT
Thomson, Lassi
$863,333
RD
RFA - 3

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May 5, 2020 at 8:24
#1
Joined: Jan 2020
Posts: 4,320
Likes: 1,420
Brady will get more
May 5, 2020 at 8:26
#2
Isles7
Joined: Jun 2019
Posts: 12,222
Likes: 5,298
Isles decline
May 5, 2020 at 8:55
#3
Hockey 1st Sens 2nd
Joined: Aug 2016
Posts: 2,258
Likes: 920
Brady won't sign for $7M, not with max term. His brother signed for $7M but on a 3 year term.
May 5, 2020 at 9:46
#4
Joined: Oct 2019
Posts: 2,799
Likes: 889
Quoting: TCMonkey
Brady won't sign for $7M, not with max term. His brother signed for $7M but on a 3 year term.


His brother also had a much more impressive resume heading into signing.

I see Brady taking 8x8. One more than his Bro, the same as Chabot, and indicating to the Senators community that he is also in it for the long haul.
Zbaddest liked this.
May 5, 2020 at 10:21
#5
Ottawa Senators
Joined: May 2015
Posts: 723
Likes: 45
Quoting: PLDGEY
His brother also had a much more impressive resume heading into signing.

I see Brady taking 8x8. One more than his Bro, the same as Chabot, and indicating to the Senators community that he is also in it for the long haul.


That is possible, but I think Tkachuk will take less. I think $7 million for Brady is very fair. Long term contracts are risky for both the player and the team. He's securing a long term deal to secure himself and the team is hopefully getting itself a steal, but both ways there is a risk and each side has to give and take. Especially if Brady hopes to be playing on a competitive team and has bought in to Ottawa's rebuild. Ottawa can't be paying all of their younger players $ 8 million, especially with Lafrenière or other players who will potentially need more money to stay in Ottawa.
May 5, 2020 at 10:26
#6
KFTW
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 23,509
Likes: 10,240
Forget the trade and the 3 UFA signings. It just makes them worse
May 6, 2020 at 9:22
#7
... We're a "Team"..
Joined: Jul 2017
Posts: 1,723
Likes: 700
Quoting: Zbaddest
That is possible, but I think Tkachuk will take less. I think $7 million for Brady is very fair. Long term contracts are risky for both the player and the team. He's securing a long term deal to secure himself and the team is hopefully getting itself a steal, but both ways there is a risk and each side has to give and take. Especially if Brady hopes to be playing on a competitive team and has bought in to Ottawa's rebuild. Ottawa can't be paying all of their younger players $ 8 million, especially with Lafrenière or other players who will potentially need more money to stay in Ottawa.


You also forget that he has the same agent as JG Pageau, Erik Karlsson and Mark Stone (Newport Sports Management). All of which are now gone. The agent is also not a fan of either Pierre Dorion or Eugene Melnyk and was not a fan of the handling of 2 out of 3 of those clients (Karlsson and Stone). He'll get 8+ and an offersheet isn't out of the question. Or, they sign him to a 2-3 year bridge deal similar to his brother and then ask for more. Or they walk him to arbitration and then we have a similar situation with Stone.
May 6, 2020 at 10:50
#8
Sens4life
Joined: Mar 2018
Posts: 803
Likes: 108
Not gonna lie I love the idea of bringing back Dzingel.
May 6, 2020 at 1:24
#9
Ottawa Senators
Joined: May 2015
Posts: 723
Likes: 45
Quoting: Green4D4Again
You also forget that he has the same agent as JG Pageau, Erik Karlsson and Mark Stone (Newport Sports Management). All of which are now gone. The agent is also not a fan of either Pierre Dorion or Eugene Melnyk and was not a fan of the handling of 2 out of 3 of those clients (Karlsson and Stone). He'll get 8+ and an offersheet isn't out of the question. Or, they sign him to a 2-3 year bridge deal similar to his brother and then ask for more. Or they walk him to arbitration and then we have a similar situation with Stone.


If he wants more than $ 8 million, as much as I love him, the team might as well trade him because he is not worth more than $ 8 million (though he might be in 5 years). His agents won't ask for $ 8 million because his agents aren't stupid. I'm not sure which other team would offer sheet him over that money either. And you can't compare Tkachuk to Karlsson, Stone, or Pageau, they're all very different players and situations. Ottawa signed Karlsson long-term to $6 million a year, and Karlsson was better. Pageau is turning 28 years old this year and is an awesome third line centre, Stone took years to develop and was really good when he was 24 years old, and by the time he was traded, he was in his prime and wanted to capitalize on the highest deal he could long-term. Brady is 20 years old and has yet to surpass 45 points after two seasons. Brady shouldn't be paid over $8 million, more than what Karlsson or Stone were ever paid when they were on the team. His brother, Matthew, has produced more points and his contract made sense. Tkachuk's will too, as long as it isn't over the amount you're saying
May 6, 2020 at 5:54
#10
Thread Starter
GoCanada
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 3,597
Likes: 418
Quoting: Zbaddest
If he wants more than $ 8 million, as much as I love him, the team might as well trade him because he is not worth more than $ 8 million (though he might be in 5 years). His agents won't ask for $ 8 million because his agents aren't stupid. I'm not sure which other team would offer sheet him over that money either. And you can't compare Tkachuk to Karlsson, Stone, or Pageau, they're all very different players and situations. Ottawa signed Karlsson long-term to $6 million a year, and Karlsson was better. Pageau is turning 28 years old this year and is an awesome third line centre, Stone took years to develop and was really good when he was 24 years old, and by the time he was traded, he was in his prime and wanted to capitalize on the highest deal he could long-term. Brady is 20 years old and has yet to surpass 45 points after two seasons. Brady shouldn't be paid over $8 million, more than what Karlsson or Stone were ever paid when they were on the team. His brother, Matthew, has produced more points and his contract made sense. Tkachuk's will too, as long as it isn't over the amount you're saying


Unpopular Opinion: Brady should be paid 8 million if signed at 8 years because his ceiling is better than 9.5 million dollar Mark Stone
Green4D4Again liked this.
May 6, 2020 at 6:13
#11
Ottawa Senators
Joined: May 2015
Posts: 723
Likes: 45
Quoting: jassan28
Unpopular Opinion: Brady should be paid 8 million if signed at 8 years because his ceiling is better than 9.5 million dollar Mark Stone


Not sure his ceiling is better. I think Tkachuk is better than Stone in hitting, crashing the net, shooting a lot, and in skating, but Stone's defensive game, takeaway expertise, his shot's accuracy and release, and the fact that he's in his prime, I think, make Tkachuk's next contract non-comparable to the one Stone recently got.

Again, Chabot got paid $8 million to play 30 minutes a night, he is extremely talented, calm, and potentially the team's captain. Tkachuk will get paid big, just hopefully not as big as Chabot. Ottawa will need that cap space in a few years.
May 6, 2020 at 6:17
#12
Thread Starter
GoCanada
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 3,597
Likes: 418
Quoting: Zbaddest
Not sure his ceiling is better. I think Tkachuk is better than Stone in hitting, crashing the net, shooting a lot, and in skating, but Stone's defensive game, takeaway expertise, his shot's accuracy and release, and the fact that he's in his prime, I think, make Tkachuk's next contract non-comparable to the one Stone recently got.

Again, Chabot got paid $8 million to play 30 minutes a night, he is extremely talented, calm, and potentially the team's captain. Tkachuk will get paid big, just hopefully not as big as Chabot. Ottawa will need that cap space in a few years.


Considering Stone played with Turris, Duchene, Karlsson, Brassard, Hoffman and Tkachuk has to work with Colin White, Ryan, Brown and Chabot makes their stats and performance vary. Tkachuk shoots like MacKinnon but Tkachuk holds a 9% shooting percentage while Stone held a 14% shooting percentage. If Tkachuk had Laine like shooting he'd be a perennial 50 goal scorer
May 6, 2020 at 6:28
#13
Ottawa Senators
Joined: May 2015
Posts: 723
Likes: 45
Quoting: jassan28
Considering Stone played with Turris, Duchene, Karlsson, Brassard, Hoffman and Tkachuk has to work with Colin White, Ryan, Brown and Chabot makes their stats and performance vary. Tkachuk shoots like MacKinnon but Tkachuk holds a 9% shooting percentage while Stone held a 14% shooting percentage. If Tkachuk had Laine like shooting he'd be a perennial 50 goal scorer


Yes but Tkachuk doesn't have Laine like shooting and he does not shoot like MacKinnon either, and his playmaking is good, not great.
May 7, 2020 at 9:06
#14
... We're a "Team"..
Joined: Jul 2017
Posts: 1,723
Likes: 700
Quoting: Zbaddest
Not sure his ceiling is better. I think Tkachuk is better than Stone in hitting, crashing the net, shooting a lot, and in skating, but Stone's defensive game, takeaway expertise, his shot's accuracy and release, and the fact that he's in his prime, I think, make Tkachuk's next contract non-comparable to the one Stone recently got.

Again, Chabot got paid $8 million to play 30 minutes a night, he is extremely talented, calm, and potentially the team's captain. Tkachuk will get paid big, just hopefully not as big as Chabot. Ottawa will need that cap space in a few years.


In a few years, Ryan will no longer be paid by Ottawa, freeing up 7.25 million. Anisimov (4.55) and Gaborik's contract (4.75) are gone after next year. If a CBO is used, Zaitsev will be gone. That frees up another 4.5 right away (21 million total). Even at that, Zaitsev is our only competent RHD right now so I think he'll stay put. Point is, I don't think paying players will be a problem down the road. I think hitting the cap floor will be the issue. I also find it funny that apart from White and Chabot, that those 4 guys are the highest paid on the team. It's a wonderful problem to have when you have a solid prospect pool.

Tkachuk drove the majority of the play this year (as a winger) so I think the talent is there to get away with paying him 8x8 (which isn't a lot when the cap is going up in a few years). Imagine what he could do with an actual top talent center that isn't Colin White or Chris Tierney? Two 20 goal seasons as a 20 year old is nothing to scoff at.
May 7, 2020 at 4:58
#15
Ottawa Senators
Joined: May 2015
Posts: 723
Likes: 45
Quoting: Green4D4Again
In a few years, Ryan will no longer be paid by Ottawa, freeing up 7.25 million. Anisimov (4.55) and Gaborik's contract (4.75) are gone after next year. If a CBO is used, Zaitsev will be gone. That frees up another 4.5 right away (21 million total). Even at that, Zaitsev is our only competent RHD right now so I think he'll stay put. Point is, I don't think paying players will be a problem down the road. I think hitting the cap floor will be the issue. I also find it funny that apart from White and Chabot, that those 4 guys are the highest paid on the team. It's a wonderful problem to have when you have a solid prospect pool.

Tkachuk drove the majority of the play this year (as a winger) so I think the talent is there to get away with paying him 8x8 (which isn't a lot when the cap is going up in a few years). Imagine what he could do with an actual top talent center that isn't Colin White or Chris Tierney? Two 20 goal seasons as a 20 year old is nothing to scoff at.


Trust me, that cap space will be gone quickly when Batherson, Norris, Lafrenière, Brannstrom, Formenton, Byfield...etc are all going to eventually earn lots of money. The team shouldn't overspend, to make sure they have enough space to sign as many players as possible in the future so they can stay as competitive as possible for as long as possible. Again, in my opinion, Tkachuk is not worth $ 8 million right now, maybe after 5 years he will be. That's my take on this
May 8, 2020 at 10:17
#16
... We're a "Team"..
Joined: Jul 2017
Posts: 1,723
Likes: 700
Quoting: Zbaddest
Trust me, that cap space will be gone quickly when Batherson, Norris, Lafrenière, Brannstrom, Formenton, Byfield...etc are all going to eventually earn lots of money. The team shouldn't overspend, to make sure they have enough space to sign as many players as possible in the future so they can stay as competitive as possible for as long as possible. Again, in my opinion, Tkachuk is not worth $ 8 million right now, maybe after 5 years he will be. That's my take on this


Ah yes, in 5 years. Let's bridge deal this young star so he feels alienated and then act surprised when he doesn't want to commit long term. Worked so well with Stone, didn't it?

It's easy to give "prove it" contracts to someone like Duclair because of his lack of consistency season to season. But, Dorion would be setting himself up for disaster if he doesn't commit long term to Tkachuk. He's 20 years old. Has two 20 goal seasons under his belt, can keep up physically, is a p***k to play against, has leadership qualities to him, draws all the penalties and is a beauty off the ice. How many of those guys listed above have played a full NHL season? Do you think all those guys are going to be worth their potential? If anyone has earned his contract so far, its Tkachuk. 8x8 is more than fair. The cheaper the better. If he signs for less than that, feel free to call me out because I would love to be wrong in this case.
May 9, 2020 at 1:49
#17
Ottawa Senators
Joined: May 2015
Posts: 723
Likes: 45
Quoting: Green4D4Again
Ah yes, in 5 years. Let's bridge deal this young star so he feels alienated and then act surprised when he doesn't want to commit long term. Worked so well with Stone, didn't it?

It's easy to give "prove it" contracts to someone like Duclair because of his lack of consistency season to season. But, Dorion would be setting himself up for disaster if he doesn't commit long term to Tkachuk. He's 20 years old. Has two 20 goal seasons under his belt, can keep up physically, is a p***k to play against, has leadership qualities to him, draws all the penalties and is a beauty off the ice. How many of those guys listed above have played a full NHL season? Do you think all those guys are going to be worth their potential? If anyone has earned his contract so far, its Tkachuk. 8x8 is more than fair. The cheaper the better. If he signs for less than that, feel free to call me out because I would love to be wrong in this case.


When did I say "let's bridge deal this young star". Quite the contrary, I want to lock him up long-term, hopefully to an 8-year deal. You should relax with your sarcasm. I agree, he has leadership qualities and does all those great things that you say, I freaking love Brady, but not at 8 x 8. This discussion is going nowhere, and I will say again that this is just what I think, so take it easy
May 9, 2020 at 2:29
#18
Thread Starter
GoCanada
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 3,597
Likes: 418
Quoting: Zbaddest
When did I say "let's bridge deal this young star". Quite the contrary, I want to lock him up long-term, hopefully to an 8-year deal. You should relax with your sarcasm. I agree, he has leadership qualities and does all those great things that you say, I freaking love Brady, but not at 8 x 8. This discussion is going nowhere, and I will say again that this is just what I think, so take it easy


7.8 million 8 year deal is what I see the team going at at his pace
Green4D4Again liked this.
May 9, 2020 at 12:13
#19
... We're a "Team"..
Joined: Jul 2017
Posts: 1,723
Likes: 700
Quoting: Zbaddest
Trust me, that cap space will be gone quickly when Batherson, Norris, Lafrenière, Brannstrom, Formenton, Byfield...etc are all going to eventually earn lots of money. The team shouldn't overspend, to make sure they have enough space to sign as many players as possible in the future so they can stay as competitive as possible for as long as possible. Again, in my opinion, Tkachuk is not worth $ 8 million right now, maybe after 5 years he will be. That's my take on this


Apologies for the sarcasm. But, you've been insinuating a bridge deal throughout this entire thread so I'm calling you out. You've also said trading him if he wants 8 million per. That's ludicrous considering the situation Ottawa is in. If any other team had Ottawa's cap space, 8x8 is a steal.

If you trade a rising star before his first contract, does that instill faith in the fan base that we will keep Byfield/Stutzle/Lafreniere/Batherson/Brannstrom/Norris if they ask for market value? If you low-ball the player during contract negotiations, do you think he'd consider staying if upper management thinks he's not worth keeping at a higher price for what he brings on and off the ice? If you bridge deal a rising star for no good reason other than "prove-it again", what does that tell the player?

What does that mean for Chabot and White when you won't commit long term a future captain/assistant captain/friend?
May 9, 2020 at 9:22
#20
Ottawa Senators
Joined: May 2015
Posts: 723
Likes: 45
Quoting: jassan28
7.8 million 8 year deal is what I see the team going at at his pace


It's possible, we'll see
May 9, 2020 at 9:30
#21
Ottawa Senators
Joined: May 2015
Posts: 723
Likes: 45
Quoting: Green4D4Again
Apologies for the sarcasm. But, you've been insinuating a bridge deal throughout this entire thread so I'm calling you out. You've also said trading him if he wants 8 million per. That's ludicrous considering the situation Ottawa is in. If any other team had Ottawa's cap space, 8x8 is a steal.

If you trade a rising star before his first contract, does that instill faith in the fan base that we will keep Byfield/Stutzle/Lafreniere/Batherson/Brannstrom/Norris if they ask for market value? If you low-ball the player during contract negotiations, do you think he'd consider staying if upper management thinks he's not worth keeping at a higher price for what he brings on and off the ice? If you bridge deal a rising star for no good reason other than "prove-it again", what does that tell the player?

What does that mean for Chabot and White when you won't commit long term a future captain/assistant captain/friend?


Not sure how I insinuated that, I hate bridge deals, especially with the Sens. $8 million just doesn't make sense for Brady. He's an incredible player at around $7 million, especially when compared to Chabot, who is the better player. And I think it's a stretch to say 8x8 is a steal. Honestly, I just don't even think Tkachuk and his agent will be looking for 8x8, even they probably see and know that that is too much. Maybe if Brady decides not to sign and has an amazing year and then negotiates, he could ask for 8x8 or even 9x8, but not now. It obviously won't look good if Ottawa trades Tkachuk, and they won't, because I'm pretty confident they'll be able to sign him to a reasonable contract. It also won't look good if Ottawa locks him up, 8x8, and he never surpasses the 50-point mark in a single season.
 
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