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Hot Dog Phil

Created by: UpsideDownQue
Team: 2020-21 Colorado Avalanche
Initial Creation Date: May 8, 2020
Published: May 8, 2020
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Pure offensive winger who performs in the playoffs

Kessel was previously traded for POJ + Galchenyuk and I think this package is more valuable than that so ARZ is net positive in the Kessel trades. Not sure if Kessel if available but if ARZ wants to retool this offseason this could be a good starting point

Kessels production took a nosedive in ARZ playing in a very defensive system but I bet he can get back up to around 70 points per year on a more offensive team like COL.

Not sure if Kadri and Kessel played on the same line in TOR back in the day but they can be reunited on the 2nd line here
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
4$5,000,000
2$2,500,000
1$800,000
2$2,000,000
1$925,000
1$1,250,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$1,000,000
Trades
1.
COL
  1. 2020 2nd round pick (FLA)
  2. 2021 4th round pick (FLA)
FLA
    Zadorov
    2.
    COL
    1. Kessel, Phil ($1,000,000 retained)
    ARI
    1. Timmins, Conor
    2. 2021 2nd round pick (COL)
    DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
    2020
    Logo of the COL
    Logo of the FLA
    Logo of the TOR
    Logo of the COL
    Logo of the COL
    Logo of the FLA
    Logo of the COL
    2021
    Logo of the COL
    Logo of the COL
    Logo of the FLA
    Logo of the COL
    Logo of the COL
    Logo of the COL
    2022
    Logo of the COL
    Logo of the COL
    Logo of the COL
    Logo of the COL
    Logo of the COL
    Logo of the COL
    Logo of the COL
    ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
    23$81,500,000$78,443,095$0$5,425,000$3,056,905

    Roster

    Left WingCentreRight Wing
    Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
    $5,000,000$5,000,000
    RW, LW
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
    $6,300,000$6,300,000
    C
    M-NTC
    UFA - 3
    Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
    $9,250,000$9,250,000
    RW, C
    UFA - 5
    Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
    $5,571,429$5,571,429
    LW, C
    M-NTC
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
    $4,500,000$4,500,000
    C
    M-NTC
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Arizona Coyotes
    $5,800,000$5,800,000
    RW
    M-NTC, NMC
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
    $2,000,000$2,000,000
    RW, LW
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
    $3,500,000$3,500,000
    C, RW
    UFA - 3
    Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
    $3,900,000$3,900,000
    RW
    UFA - 3
    Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
    $2,850,000$2,850,000
    LW, RW
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
    $1,800,000$1,800,000
    C, LW
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
    $863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$425,000$425K)
    RW
    RFA - 3
    Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
    Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
    $5,000,000$5,000,000
    LD/RD
    UFA - 7
    Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
    $6,000,000$6,000,000
    RD
    M-NTC, NMC
    UFA - 3
    Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
    $3,333,333$3,333,333
    G
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
    $2,500,000$2,500,000
    LD
    UFA - 3
    Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
    $880,833$880,833 (Performance Bonus$2,500,000$2M)
    RD
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
    $2,000,000$2,000,000
    G
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
    $894,167$894,167 (Performance Bonus$2,500,000$2M)
    LD/RD
    RFA - 3
    Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
    $3,450,000$3,450,000
    LD/RD
    UFA - 1
    ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
    Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
    $1,250,000$1,250,000
    C
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
    $1,000,000$1,000,000
    LD
    UFA
    Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
    $800,000$800,000
    C
    RFA

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    May 8, 2020 at 3:16 p.m.
    #1
    Am Yisrael Chai
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    ARI needs RHD. Timmins would be perfect for them.
    UpsideDownQue liked this.
    May 8, 2020 at 3:19 p.m.
    #2
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    Quoting: Kakko_to_New_York
    ARI needs RHD. Timmins would be perfect for them.


    Good point. Do you think Timmins + 2nd is fair, or maybe Timmins + 2nd + 3rd? If were giving up Timmins I wouldnt want to trade a 1st too
    May 8, 2020 at 3:20 p.m.
    #3
    Am Yisrael Chai
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    Quoting: moli92
    Good point. Do you think Timmins + 2nd is fair, or maybe Timmins + 2nd + 3rd? If were giving up Timmins I wouldnt want to trade a 1st too


    Maybe Jost-Timmins-2nd?
    Gabriel11 liked this.
    May 8, 2020 at 3:22 p.m.
    #4
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    Quoting: Kakko_to_New_York
    Maybe Jost-Timmins-2nd?


    That would be a perfect trade
    May 8, 2020 at 3:32 p.m.
    #5
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    Quoting: Kakko_to_New_York
    Maybe Jost-Timmins-2nd?


    that seems like a bit much to me but im biased
    May 8, 2020 at 3:41 p.m.
    #6
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    Kessel isn't a fit. Anything you'd trade for him is too much.

    Jost, Timmins and a 2nd is a massive overpay. To me, even one of these 3 is too much. Timmins is definitely not available. Look at the RD in the system. He's one of the 3 who can actually play NHL. He'll be on the 2nd of 3rd pair for a long time
    May 8, 2020 at 3:54 p.m.
    #7
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    Quoting: WellIDK
    Kessel isn't a fit. Anything you'd trade for him is too much.

    Jost, Timmins and a 2nd is a massive overpay. To me, even one of these 3 is too much. Timmins is definitely not available. Look at the RD in the system. He's one of the 3 who can actually play NHL. He'll be on the 2nd of 3rd pair for a long time


    I sense a lot of recency bias here. Kessel was a premiere forward before the black hole that is ARZs offensive system took him. He seems like a good option to fill out the empty spot in COLs top 6. Timmins is a nice piece but I dont think he is essential. Defense isnt a weakness for COL next season and Makar + Johnson will anchor the right side for the next couple seasons after 2021. Its not hard to find a 3rd pair D man to fill out the roster. We could even keep Zadorov and use him on the right side behind them and the D will be set for a long time.
    May 8, 2020 at 4:02 p.m.
    #8
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    Quoting: moli92
    I sense a lot of recency bias here. Kessel was a premiere forward before the black hole that is ARZs offensive system took him. He seems like a good option to fill out the empty spot in COLs top 6. Timmins is a nice piece but I dont think he is essential. Defense isnt a weakness for COL next season and Makar + Johnson will anchor the right side for the next couple seasons after 2021. Its not hard to find a 3rd pair D man to fill out the roster. We could even keep Zadorov and use him on the right side behind them and the D will be set for a long time.


    Kessel isn't suited for a high-pace team. Also, he wasn't the most popular player at the Pens in his final years. Malkin even requested a trade if they kept Kessel. Mainly because Kessel wasn't motivated anymore and had only interest in his stats. Kessel needs an offensive team who spend a lot of time in the offensive zone. Avs aren't that team.

    Timmins is a cheap player with top 4 potential. If you're a contender, you need some quality ELC guys and some cheap players. Timmins is one of those players. You won't trade a guy like that for an aging player who appears to be not that motivated and who's not a fit
    May 8, 2020 at 4:26 p.m.
    #9
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    Quoting: WellIDK
    Kessel isn't suited for a high-pace team. Also, he wasn't the most popular player at the Pens in his final years. Malkin even requested a trade if they kept Kessel. Mainly because Kessel wasn't motivated anymore and had only interest in his stats. Kessel needs an offensive team who spend a lot of time in the offensive zone. Avs aren't that team.

    Timmins is a cheap player with top 4 potential. If you're a contender, you need some quality ELC guys and some cheap players. Timmins is one of those players. You won't trade a guy like that for an aging player who appears to be not that motivated and who's not a fit


    How are the Avs not an "offensive team who spends a lot of time in the offensive zone"? They are one of the most offensive teams in the league... He seems like a real good fit to me. I agree that ELCs are important but the Avs already have a bunch and adding Kessel makes them a better team for the next 2 seasons. ELCs are good for staying under the cap during cap crunches. As long as Kessel fits under the cap then its an upgrade for them.

    As for the motivation rumours, I think that was mostly a reflection of Malkin and not Kessel. Malkin basically gave PIT an ultimatum where they had to choose between him and Kessel - obviously they chose to keep Malkin since hes a much better player. He fights with his teammates (literally fought Craig Adams at practice) and coaches. As for the comments Malkin made about Kessel not caring about the team and just wanting to have good individual stats - Malkin seems like a hypocrite since at the same time he was mad at the coach for not giving him 20+ mins of ice time and for not playing him when the other team had empty nets. He also doesnt even remember his own teammates names - see Brooks Orpik's interview. bottom line is I dont really think Malkin is a good judge of character and I dont put any value towards what he said about Kessel
    May 8, 2020 at 4:54 p.m.
    #10
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    Quoting: Kakko_to_New_York
    Maybe Jost-Timmins-2nd?


    Quoting: Gabriel11
    That would be a perfect trade


    Quoting: moli92
    that seems like a bit much to me but im biased


    How on earth does Kessel get a better return after a horrible year than he did when pit traded him after an 82 point year? Kessels value rn if anything is a bag of pucks and a coupon to Five Guys
    May 8, 2020 at 5:03 p.m.
    #11
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    Quoting: moli92
    How are the Avs not an "offensive team who spends a lot of time in the offensive zone"? They are one of the most offensive teams in the league... He seems like a real good fit to me. I agree that ELCs are important but the Avs already have a bunch and adding Kessel makes them a better team for the next 2 seasons. ELCs are good for staying under the cap during cap crunches. As long as Kessel fits under the cap then its an upgrade for them.

    As for the motivation rumours, I think that was mostly a reflection of Malkin and not Kessel. Malkin basically gave PIT an ultimatum where they had to choose between him and Kessel - obviously they chose to keep Malkin since hes a much better player. He fights with his teammates (literally fought Craig Adams at practice) and coaches. As for the comments Malkin made about Kessel not caring about the team and just wanting to have good individual stats - Malkin seems like a hypocrite since at the same time he was mad at the coach for not giving him 20+ mins of ice time and for not playing him when the other team had empty nets. He also doesnt even remember his own teammates names - see Brooks Orpik's interview. bottom line is I dont really think Malkin is a good judge of character and I dont put any value towards what he said about Kessel


    Avs are an offensive team, but they don't control the zone as much as a team like the Vegas. For example, the Avs are 17th when it comes to offensive zone starts, they are upper mid-tier when it comes to things like CF/60, CA/60 and CF% (same for FF).

    When it comes to Kessel. If you refuse to pay attention to his gamestyle and purely focus on the stats, that's fine. But I'd suggest you should also look at his metrics of his final year at the Pens. His were among the worst of the Pens. In the final 3 years at the Pens, 44% of his points were on the PP (nearly the same at ARI now). He won't be on the 1st unit at the Avs, how will he be able to hit those 70 points you mentioned in the description. Make it 40/45 if he'd be somewhat of a fit
    May 8, 2020 at 5:32 p.m.
    #12
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    Legit question; is Nichushkin’s defense really worth 750K more and a 2nd year than Jost when they score at the exact same rate for their careers 0.35 ppg?
    May 8, 2020 at 5:44 p.m.
    #13
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    Quoting: Xqb15
    Legit question; is Nichushkin’s defense really worth 750K more and a 2nd year than Jost when they score at the exact same rate for their careers 0.35 ppg?


    I think so
    May 8, 2020 at 5:56 p.m.
    #14
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    Quoting: WellIDK
    Avs are an offensive team, but they don't control the zone as much as a team like the Vegas. For example, the Avs are 17th when it comes to offensive zone starts, they are upper mid-tier when it comes to things like CF/60, CA/60 and CF% (same for FF).

    When it comes to Kessel. If you refuse to pay attention to his gamestyle and purely focus on the stats, that's fine. But I'd suggest you should also look at his metrics of his final year at the Pens. His were among the worst of the Pens. In the final 3 years at the Pens, 44% of his points were on the PP (nearly the same at ARI now). He won't be on the 1st unit at the Avs, how will he be able to hit those 70 points you mentioned in the description. Make it 40/45 if he'd be somewhat of a fit


    Kessel scores off the rush and on the PP, he's not a possession player anyway. COL is one of the best teams off the rush and in transition, and also just happen to have good possession numbers too. Colorado draws the 2nd most penalties in the league so I don't think a PP specialist is a bad thing for them. How is this not a fit? Quoting team OZ start percentage is pointless since you can just give certain players more offensive zone starts anyway. They obviously aren't gonna start Kessel in the D zone more than 40ish percent of the time anyway. They will keep him for a pure offensive role.

    He could easily play on the 1st PP unit, or they could run two units for equal time and double shift Mackinnon on both units. He will get tons of PP time regardless.
    May 8, 2020 at 7:56 p.m.
    #15
    John 3 16
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    Whilst I'm not sold on the idea, it is an intriguing one. Sakic likes buy-low candidates, and after the year he just had Kessel could be a good fetch. But as others have mentioned, he doesn't appear to be a stats-darling, and Colorado's recent roster moves have been for players with great underlying stats (eg. Donskoi, Burakovsky, Nichuskin)

    In any case, the first question to ask is whether Kessel is going to make it possible for Arizona to trade him. He made it near impossible for Pittsburgh to move him anywhere but Arizona with his 8 team trade list. I doubt he wants to leave Arizona's golf courses so soon after getting his wish to be traded there.
     
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