Timmins and Namestnikov on the team and B Smith capdump

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Created by: Richard88

Team: 2020-21 Colorado Avalanche

Initial Creation Date: May 8, 2020

Published: May 9, 2020

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

Timmins had an excellent camp and preseason in 2019, and will make it hard to omit him next season even with Byram joining. If Timmins makes it then it makes sense to pair him with Girard rather than Byram.

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Namestnikov is coming off a 31 point (78 game) season in 18/19, and 31 point (63 game) season in 19/20. Being generous this puts him at about ~0.5ppg which is in line with the production of Compher ($3.5m/4 years) and Donskoi ($3.9m/4 years). It's thus reasonable that his salary would fall somewhere in between them.

It's likely that Namestnikov will get offers with more term and/or dollars elsewhere, but at age 27 a 3 year contract would enable him to cash in again at 30 rather than 31 so might suit him better than a 4+ year deal (along of course with the benefit of playing on a contender). 3 years is also perfect for Colorado as it expires in time for Mackinnon's 2023 raise.

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All draft picks received in trades are 2021 picks, which reflects the fact that the draft will likely be in June. With these trades Colorado would have 8 picks in the 2021 draft with which they could stock up the prospect pool and/or make trades.

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In 2021 Cole and Smith hit UFA and free up $8.6m that can go towards resigning Makar, Landeskog, and Grubauer.

Expansion Draft Protection (7+3+1):
- Mackinnon, Rantanen, Landeskog, Kadri, Burakovsky, Namestnikov, Donskoi
- Makar, Girard, Graves (Johnson waives NMC)
- Francouz
Exposed: Compher, Nichuskin, Johnson, Grubauer (as an UFA Grubauer declines to sign with Seattle and instead resigns in Colorado).

- Seattle selects Compher.
- UFA out: Cole, Smith, Calvert, Bellemare
- Promote: Bowers, Newhook

2021-22 Roster:

Landeskog ----- Mackinnon --- Rantanen
Namestnikov ----- Kadri -------- Burakovsky
Kaut -------------- Newhook ----- Donskoi
Nichuskin -------- Bowers ------- O'Connor/other ELC/4th line UFA

Byram --- Makar
Girard --- Timmins
Graves --- Johnson
7D

Grubauer
Francouz

Free Agent Signings

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Burakovsky, André	4	$5,000,000
Graves, Ryan	3	$2,750,000
Nichushkin, Valeri	2	$2,250,000
O'Connor, Logan	1	$925,000

UFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Namestnikov, Vladislav		3	$3,750,000

Trades

COL

2021 5th round pick (EDM)

OTT

Kamenev, Vladislav [RFA Rights]

Additional Details:

Buy-low for a player with 3C upside if given the opportunity.

COL

2021 2nd round pick (STL)
2021 3rd round pick (TOR)

LAK

Zadorov, Nikita [RFA Rights]

Additional Details:

LA need a LHD, and Zadorov fits their rebuild and can offer some physical protection/intimidation on a team full of rookies.

COL

2021 2nd round pick (FLA)
2021 3rd round pick (FLA)

FLA

Jost, Tyson [RFA Rights]

Additional Details:

Young and cost-effective Haula replacement.

COL

Smith, Brendan
2021 3rd round pick (NYR)

Additional Details:

Rather than go into the season with $5-6m in unused capspace, Avs weaponise it to pick up an extra draft pick. In Smith they also get a player who can still provide depth at both LHD and LW.

Smith is an UFA in 2021 so this only affects 1 year. His base salary for 2020/21 is only $2.35m which despite his caphit isn't unreasonable dollar-wise for a depth guy.

This move would still leave Colorado with over ~$1.5m unused capspace, meaning that there will be enough cap accrual by the deadline to still add a good player for the playoffs.

NYR

Cap Dump

Rangers need to move one of Staal or Smith in order to create space at LHD for their upcoming prospects (i.e. Hajek, Rykov, K'Andre Miller, Robertson). They also need capspace to resign Strome, DeAngelo, and Georgiev.

With Staal having a NMC and thus impossible to move, Smith is the obvious choice. With a flat cap Rangers will find it hard to find a taker though, and thus use the lower of their 2021 3rd's to make it worthwhile to a team with unused capspace.

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2020
2021
2022

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
22	$81,500,000	$79,118,095	$0	$5,425,000	$2,381,905

Roster

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Landeskog, Gabriel $5,571,429$5,571,429 LW, C M-NTC UFA - 1	MacKinnon, Nathan $6,300,000$6,300,000 C M-NTC UFA - 3	Rantanen, Mikko $9,250,000$9,250,000 RW, C UFA - 5
Namestnikov, Vladislav $3,750,000$3,750,000 LW, RW, C UFA - 2	Kadri, Nazem $4,500,000$4,500,000 C M-NTC UFA - 2	Burakovsky, André $5,000,000$5,000,000 RW, LW UFA - 2
Nichushkin, Valeri $2,250,000$2,250,000 RW, LW UFA - 2	Compher, J.T. $3,500,000$3,500,000 C, RW UFA - 3	Donskoi, Joonas $3,900,000$3,900,000 RW UFA - 3
Calvert, Matt $2,850,000$2,850,000 LW, RW UFA - 1	Bellemare, Pierre-Édouard $1,800,000$1,800,000 C, LW UFA - 1	Kaut, Martin $863,333$863,333 ($425,000$425K) RW RFA - 3

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Graves, Ryan $2,750,000$2,750,000 LD UFA - 3	Makar, Cale $880,833$880,833 ($2,500,000$2M) RD UFA - 1	Grubauer, Philipp $3,333,333$3,333,333 G UFA - 1
Girard, Samuel $5,000,000$5,000,000 LD/RD UFA - 7	Timmins, Conor $925,000$925,000 RD RFA - 1	Francouz, Pavel $2,000,000$2,000,000 G UFA - 2
Byram, Bowen $894,167$894,167 ($2,500,000$2M) LD/RD RFA - 3	Johnson, Erik $6,000,000$6,000,000 RD M-NTC, NMC UFA - 3

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Cole, Ian $3,450,000$3,450,000 LD/RD UFA - 1
Smith, Brendan $4,350,000$4,350,000 LD/RD, LW M-NTC UFA - 1

Special Teams

Power Play 1
MacKinnon, N.		Landeskog, G.		Rantanen, M.
	Kadri, N.		Makar, C.

Power Play 2
Kaut, M.		Namestnikov, V.		Burakovsky, A.
	Byram, B.		Timmins, C.

Penalty Kill 1
	Bellemare, P.	Calvert, M.
	Graves, R.	Johnson, E.

Penalty Kill 2
	Namestnikov, V.	Compher, J.
	Girard, S.	Timmins, C.

May 9, 2020 at 6:11 a.m.

JeffW

Joined: May 2017

Posts: 4,176

Likes: 1,646

Why wouldnt they get better than a 3rd if hes isnt going to play?

May 9, 2020 at 6:48 a.m.

Richard88

Thread Starter

John 3 16

Joined: Apr. 2020

Posts: 9,581

Likes: 4,618

Quoting: JeffW

Why wouldnt they get better than a 3rd if hes isnt going to play?

I think for higher than a 3rd Rangers could find another taker, like Ottawa for example. On many other teams Smith would also be higher in the lineup.

One thing I didn't mention is that I also considered moving Cole for picks as well and having Smith as the clear 7D, but I figured that with two rookies on D it would make sense to keep a veteran like Cole around, at least to start the season. If we needed capspace at any point then it would be easy to move him.

I think the key with Smith is that his actual salary is $2m lower than his AAV, so we could weaponise the capspace while only paying half of the AAV. That factor is also what would make him attractive to a team like Ottawa as mentioned earlier.

I also think it's important to note that Smith can play as a forward too, so whilst he might not crack the D very often if Cole stays, he would probably make it in one of the forward positions when injuries strike.

May 9, 2020 at 8:13 a.m.

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 59,429

Likes: 22,636

It's a good thought on Smith. There are very few teams that have the cap and is on Smith's M NTC "trade to" list, the Avs being one.
One thing about cap space...Teams don't like to carry much if any bonus overage in the next season. How much of that 5.4m potential bonus is going to be earned in 2020/21?

Richard88 liked this.

May 9, 2020 at 8:43 a.m.

WellIDK

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 451

Likes: 232

Tbh I think Cole - Timmins will start as the 3rd pair (Girard - Johnson 2nd). Byram starting at the Eagles, and getting some team in the NHL somewhere during the season.

Like this team. Expensive scratches btw.

Richard88 liked this.

May 9, 2020 at 8:52 a.m.

Richard88

Thread Starter

John 3 16

Joined: Apr. 2020

Posts: 9,581

Likes: 4,618

Quoting: palhal

It's a good thought on Smith. There are very few teams that have the cap and is on Smith's M NTC "trade to" list, the Avs being one.
One thing about cap space...Teams don't like to carry much if any bonus overage in the next season. How much of that 5.4m potential bonus is going to be earned in 2020/21?

How do you know that the Avs are on his "trade to" list? Has that information been leaked to the public?

I'm not sure I follow exactly what you mean by bonus overage and earning in 2020/21, could you clarify please? Do you simply mean that teams don't like to have excess capspace, or that they don't like to allocate a large proportion of capspace to players who would often be healthy scratched (as would be the case with Cole+Smith)?

May 9, 2020 at 8:59 a.m.

Richard88

Thread Starter

John 3 16

Joined: Apr. 2020

Posts: 9,581

Likes: 4,618

Quoting: WellIDK

Thanks, glad you like the team.

Ideally Byram would get some time in the AHL, but the rules between the WHL and NHL mean that if he doesn't go back to junior he has to play in the NHL - i.e. he is not allowed to be sent to the minors. If sent down it would have to be back to juniors, and he has nothing left to learn there, so it'll be the NHL for him.

The scratches are indeed expensive, but it would nonetheless be acceptable given that Smith's actual salary is only $2.35m (about half of his caphit). Cole would also mainly only be kept around just to insulate the two rookies (Byram/Timmins), but once the rookies are settled I could see Cole being moved for a pick midseason (eg. a 3rd) and Smith being the outright 7D. If that would happen we would essentially have traded Cole for Smith + 2 3rds while also cutting real salary in half, which would clearly be shrewd asset management.

May 9, 2020 at 10:41 a.m.

MisstheWhalers

Joined: Jan. 2019

Posts: 23,627

Likes: 12,353

Still don't understand why no team that needed secondary scoring didn't trade a measly 4th round pick for Namestnikov, a team like Buffalo surely could of used him but they traded a 4th for a declining Frolik, some really dumb GM's out there.

May 9, 2020 at 10:54 a.m.

Richard88

Thread Starter

John 3 16

Joined: Apr. 2020

Posts: 9,581

Likes: 4,618

Quoting: MisstheWhalers

Ottawa probably preferred to trade Namestnikov out of the division or conference. Dorion might have also wanted to be nice to Namestnikov and find him a nice landing spot after he got his head down and played well for Ottawa in his brief time there.

May 9, 2020 at 12:32 p.m.

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 59,429

Likes: 22,636

\
[\quote=Richard88;1410446]How do you know that the Avs are on his "trade to" list? Has that information been leaked to the public?

I'm not sure I follow exactly what you mean by bonus overage and earning in 2020/21, could you clarify please? Do you simply mean that teams don't like to have excess capspace, or that they don't like to allocate a large proportion of capspace to players who would often be healthy scratched (as would be the case with Cole+Smith)?[/quote]

IMO the Avs would be a team that M NTC Smith would be OK to traded to. A Cup contender. So many think just because Ottawa has cap space, they would trade for Smith. Gotta think Smith blocks any trade to a poor team.
Bonuses. Bonus payments would allow a team to surpass the cap for the current season but most be repaid the following season. Most bonus payments are paid to players are ELC. In your post the Avs have 1.5m in cap space. If players earned 3.5m of the 4.5m in bonus, the Avs would pay 1.5m of the bonuses to get the current season cap. But because they still owe 2m in cap bonuses, their cap would be reduced by 2m in the 21/22 season. Now you gotta think is a possible reduced cap in 21/22 worth a third rounder? And as you suggest the Avs might want to top up their 20/21 Cup run with veteran at TDL, which might make the bonus cap overage even more for the 21/22 season.

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