I'm seeing suggestions of a Nurse trade more frequently recently for some reason, and wanted to address this from the Oilers perspective.
IMO it's very premature to be trading a top-4 defenseman, even though it could be argued that the Oilers have more than 4 of them: Jones played 2nd pairing minutes with Larsson this year when Klefbom was out and did very well. Holland would still need to sign a veteran as insurance in case Jones proves incapable of playing top-4 for the whole season, but I'm really not comfortable trading Nurse prior to Jones or another prospect actually supplanting him.
Many people underestimate what Nurse brings to the table. His agression and physicality seems to be well documented, but most have no idea how good he is offensively or how much the team relies on him. Over the past 3 years, Nurse is:
- tied for 7th among defensemen for 5v5 points with Victor Hedman. Only Carlson, Josi, Burns, Karlsson, Rielly and Barrie have more points.
- 2nd in the league in 5v5 TOI behind only Drew Doughty.
- 24th in the league for 5v5 goals among defensemen
- 46th in the league for PK TOI among defensemen
He doesn't get much opportunity to display his offensive talents on the PP, but he did get some PP2 time this year. He played just 74 minutes at 5v4 this year, so I set the filter there to capture all of the 72 players who got more PP time than Nurse. Among those 73 players, Nurse's 4.03 P/60 ranked 39th in the league, ahead of notable defensemen such as Rielly, Ekblad, Letang, Werenski, Doughty, Trouba, Ristolainen, Gostisbehere, Jones, Weber, Dumba, Heiskanen, OEL, Chabot and McAvoy. If he was given PP1 time with the best powerplay crew in 4 decades, I'm sure he would put up better numbers than Klefbom, but that's probably not going to happen now that Bear is on the team and Bouchard is pushing for roster spot.
I do see the attraction of trading his 2-year deal for a forward who has 4-5 years of team control, however, I'm just not convinced that the short-term downgrade of the defense corps is worth it for a team that is showing signs of contending right now. Barring a complete surprise I think Edmonton is 2 years away from trading either of their two incumbents in the top-4 left side, Darnell Nurse and Oscar Klefbom.
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The extra cap is from Calgary buying out Lucic, removing the $750k retained salary from Edmonton's books.
I mean it would be similar to the Preds trading Seth Jones for RyJo, it is good to trade from a position of surplus for a position of need, just make sure you hit on the right guy
The biggest problem is that Nurse is a solid number 3 defensemen who thinks he is a number 1 and deserves to be paid like one. If the rumours are true and he wants in the 8M range on a long term deal then he needs to be traded in about a year when hopefully Jones or somebody else is ready. He does play with tenacity and sticks up for his team mates. He can really skate and handle the puck but his first pass is very sub par and he takes dumb penalties at the exact wrong time. I would love to keep him but if he wants more then Joshua Morrisey money then I say good bye.
I mean it would be similar to the Preds trading Seth Jones for RyJo, it is good to trade from a position of surplus for a position of need, just make sure you hit on the right guy
My whole point is that it's not a position of surplus until the prospects develop to the point where they supersede the incumbents, which realistically isn't happening for another 2 years.
And anyways Edmonton's main positions of need are 3C and 2G. It's hard to imagine a FMV trade for those positions when the cost is a 1st pairing defenseman who is just entering his prime.
The biggest problem is that Nurse is a solid number 3 defensemen who thinks he is a number 1 and deserves to be paid like one. If the rumours are true and he wants in the 8M range on a long term deal then he needs to be traded in about a year when hopefully Jones or somebody else is ready. He does play with tenacity and sticks up for his team mates. He can really skate and handle the puck but his first pass is very sub par and he takes dumb penalties at the exact wrong time. I would love to keep him but if he wants more then Joshua Morrisey money then I say good bye.
I don't think he's worth $8M either, but Nurse played the 46th most minutes vs Elites in 2018-19 and was 10th in 2019-20. That's easily 1st pairing. He's not a #3 guy at all.
I don't think he's worth $8M either, but Nurse played the 46th most minutes vs Elites in 2018-19 and was 10th in 2019-20. That's easily 1st pairing. He's not a #3 guy at all.
That’s first pairing on a team that doesn’t have any true first pairing Dmen.
If I'm Killorn, I'm staying in Tampa instead of going Edmonton
Quoting: VastBluepuppy424
Why would tampa trade killorn and a 2nd for Puljujärvi,
The Tampa trade was based on a suggestion by a Lightning fan: Killorn + 3rd for Puljujarvi + conditional 2021 3rd (conditional on Puljujarvi signing). This trade sees Puljujarvi signed so I dropped the conditional 3rd. The 2nd should be conditional on Puljujarvi scoring at least 40 points in 2020-21, otherwise a 3rd transfers.
Why does Killorn waive his NTC? Good question, I guess it probably depends on how the playoffs works out for them this summer. Playing with McDavid or Draisaitl has to be a draw (Killorn plays on a defensive line right now), and the downgrade in teams isn't as steep as you might think: since New Year's Eve Edmonton was the 6th best team in the league. Add better goaltending, a legit 3C, AA and Ennis and this team is realistically as much a contender as Tampa is.
That’s first pairing on a team that doesn’t have any true first pairing Dmen.
At 5v5 he's 2nd in the entire league in minutes played over the past 3 years, 7th in points in the entire league and top pairing by comp. What more do you want??
At 5v5 he's 2nd in the entire league in minutes played over the past 3 years, 7th in points in the entire league and top pairing by comp. What more do you want??
Then why don’t you think he is worth 8M? If he’s as good as you think and a genuine top pair defensemen then he’s probably closer to 9M maybe 10M.
Then why don’t you think he is worth 8M? If he’s as good as you think and a genuine top pair defensemen then he’s probably closer to 9M maybe 10M.
I'm not worried about his next contract, to be honest. In 2 years he'll have Jones, Broberg and Samorukov all pushing for his job, he won't have any leverage to demand a huge raise. He probably won't be getting ANY powerplay time by that time and Tippett will have other options for OT. He's best friends with McDavid and Draisaitl and he loves being an Oiler, so I'm not concerned in the slightest about the long-term deal.
Then why don’t you think he is worth 8M? If he’s as good as you think and a genuine top pair defensemen then he’s probably closer to 9M maybe 10M.
To address your question more directly: there are only 3 defensemen in the whole world making more than $9M AAV, that isn't the standard for a top-pairing guy in this league.
And I said I don't think he's worth $8M, and that also doesn't preclude him from being a top-pairing player: only 9 defensemen have an AAV of $8M or more, with 4 of those making exactly $8M. These are all 2020-21 numbers to account for recent signings like Chabot and Josi.
It's not much different when you look at cap hit percentage either, and the cap is expected to remain flat for a couple of years yet.
If you look at the top 31 highest paid defensemen in the league (the essence of a #1D), the pay range is anything above $5.8M. Nurse is already in the range, being 37th on the league by cap hit on a bridge deal. If he had signed a long-term deal to start next fall it would no doubt be well inside the top-31 salaries for defensemen - where he belongs - but below the top-9 echelon who are making $8M and beyond.
I'd have been comfortable with something like the Provorov deal (6 x $6.75M) or the Faulk deal (7 x $6.5M) or the Morrissey deal (8 x $6.25M), but Holland obviously felt there wasn't the cap space to make it happen so he went with a generous bridge instead.
To address your question more directly: there are only 3 defensemen in the whole world making more than $9M AAV, that isn't the standard for a top-pairing guy in this league.
And I said I don't think he's worth $8M, and that also doesn't preclude him from being a top-pairing player: only 9 defensemen have an AAV of $8M or more, with 4 of those making exactly $8M. These are all 2020-21 numbers to account for recent signings like Chabot and Josi.
It's not much different when you look at cap hit percentage either, and the cap is expected to remain flat for a couple of years yet.
If you look at the top 31 highest paid defensemen in the league (the essence of a #1D), the pay range is anything above $5.8M. Nurse is already in the range, being 37th on the league by cap hit on a bridge deal. If he had signed a long-term deal to start next fall it would no doubt be well inside the top-31 salaries for defensemen - where he belongs - but below the top-9 echelon who are making $8M and beyond.
I'd have been comfortable with something like the Provorov deal (6 x $6.75M) or the Faulk deal (7 x $6.5M) or the Morrissey deal (8 x $6.25M), but Holland obviously felt there wasn't the cap space to make it happen so he went with a generous bridge instead.
I guess we will have to agree to disagree. I just don’t see Nurse as a top pair defensemen. My definition of top pair may be unfair to some others but to me that defensemen needs to “excel” above most of the others in their class. Nurse doesn’t have that crisp, perfect first pass in his game, he has defensive mental lapses almost nightly from what I see. I know there isn’t a perfect defensemen in the league but I think he is in the second tier of defensemen just below the elite. I am not saying that he can not or will not develop into that elite status but for now to me he is a solid number 3 Dman who is worth no more then what other defensemen you mentioned got, in that 6.5M range and not a penny more. If he wants more, then I trade him in his final contract year before he hits UFA.
I guess we will have to agree to disagree. I just don’t see Nurse as a top pair defensemen. My definition of top pair may be unfair to some others but to me that defensemen needs to “excel” above most of the others in their class. Nurse doesn’t have that crisp, perfect first pass in his game, he has defensive mental lapses almost nightly from what I see. I know there isn’t a perfect defensemen in the league but I think he is in the second tier of defensemen just below the elite. I am not saying that he can not or will not develop into that elite status but for now to me he is a solid number 3 Dman who is worth no more then what other defensemen you mentioned got, in that 6.5M range and not a penny more. If he wants more, then I trade him in his final contract year before he hits UFA.
I don't understand why you think a $6.5M defenseman is "a solid number 3" though. That puts him around 20th in the league for cap hit, clearly a number 1 defenseman. You agree that Nurse is worth that, so you must surely agree that he's a #1D then, right?
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