Quoting: F50marco
The easiest and really only way to validate something like this is to see if something similar happened in history before. Judging from what I've quickly looked up I think Habs would do this in a New York minute and Edmonton would be unwise to.
Based on previous history, it would be closer to the Habs 39th & 40th pick for 23rd.
It really all depends on whose available as that spot that is the driving force behind a team willing to make a trade like this. It has more to do with a MTL really liking someone they feel is that range all while EDM feeling that the players available at 23 are no better that the ones in the 39-40 range. All depends on scouting reports and GM's motives really.
Moving from #23 (likely #20, BTW) to #39 is going to cost a lost more than #40. That's a move of sixteen spots.
Looking at the past 2 drafts confirms this:
2019
- PHI moved #11 for #14 + #45. Moving back 3 picks cost ARI a mid-2nd.
2018
- TOR moved #25 for #29 + #76. Moving up 4 picks in the late 1st round cost STL a mid-3rd. This appears to be the weakest of the deals in the past 2 years.
- OTT moved #22 for #26 + #48. Moving up 4 picks in the late 1st cost NYR a mid-2nd.
No way any savvy GM is going to trade out of the first round and down 16-19 spots for just a mid-2nd. Clearly past transactions indicate that the #20 pick is worth much more than that.
MIN holds #25 and #42 while SJS has #28 and #34. These would be more realistic returns for #23, but if Edmonton has #20 (as they do by points percentage) I don't think it would be worth giving up for either of those deals.