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Hindsight signings of the big 3

Created by: treemos27
Team: 2020-21 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: May 16, 2020
Published: May 16, 2020
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Here is the rational...

Matthews: Matthews camp clearly wanted a 5 year term. They wanted two kicks at the can to cash in give him options at 27. 5 years doesn't buy any UFA years and at the time Matthews numbers, although impressive, were not quite "Elite" even though it was obvious he would soon get there.
Dubas could have said we are giving you Tavares' number because our culture is about "team" and not about 1 player being "the guy".
11 x 5 is a great deal for Matthews and it works for the Leafs. It is still a good enough offer that even if someone tried to offer sheet, the offer wouldn't have been big enough to sway Matthews away.

Nylander: The contract was fine. The way it was allowed to be signed was not. If you're the GM of a team you need to establish an appropriate culture. In this case, the word to Nylander needed to be "Here is 7 x 6, that is our final offer." We really want William on this team and you have every right to negotiate the best possible deal, but this is it. If the deal isn't signed by Oct 1st, he will sit out the season. No team in the NHL was going to beat 7 x 6 via offer sheet. Any more than that and the compensation would be 2- 1st rounders, 1- 2nd rounder, 1- 3rd rounder.

Marner: This was probably the biggest overpay and in my opinion was a simple case of a big bluff from Marner camp and Dubas fell for it a little.
Marner had a good argument, using Tavares and Matthews as comparables and threatening with offer sheets. The reality is Marner was going to be a Leaf. He wasn't going to sign an offer sheet with CLB or NYI. And if he did, you have to accept that. If a team was willing to make him the highest paid player in the NHL there isn't much you can do about that.
So.. Similar to the Nylander situation. You offer 10 x 6 which is still technically a slight overpay based on comparables and you say "You have until Oct 1."
He would sign. And if he didn't you could either match an offer sheet that would likely be cheaper than his current contract or you take the 4 1st rounders.

All in all I think Dubas did a good job. He identified his core guys, he promised to sign them all and he did. Obviously its pretty clear he could have signed some of them for cheaper. My analysis is that he could have saved about 1.5-2 mill between the 3 of them. Those who suggest he could saved 4+ mill are being ridiculous.

Thats my take
Free Agent Signings
CREATEDYEARSCAP HIT
Matthews, Auston
5$11,000,000
Nylander, William
6$6,962,366
Marner, Mitch
6$10,000,000
Trades
Retained Salary Transactions
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2020
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Logo of the VGK
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Logo of the TOR
Logo of the CAR
Logo of the COL
Logo of the SJS
Logo of the STL
Logo of the WPG
2021
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
2022
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
17$81,500,000$75,381,533$0$0$6,118,467
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$3,400,000$3,400,000
LW, RW
UFA - 3
Matthews, Auston
$11,000,000$11,000,000
Marner, Mitch
$10,000,000$10,000,000
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,250,000$2,250,000
RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,000,000$11,000,000
C, LW
NMC
UFA - 5
Nylander, William
$6,962,366$6,962,366
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,250,000$1,250,000
RW, LW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$3,500,000$3,500,000
LW, C, RW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$3,200,000$3,200,000
RW
UFA - 2
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,000,000$2,000,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,000,000$5,000,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 1
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$5,625,000$5,625,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,650,000$1,650,000
G
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$894,167$894,167
LD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$750,000$750,000
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$700,000$700,000
LD
UFA - 1

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May 16, 2020 at 11:45 a.m.
#1
The commissioner
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Matthews got the money he did because Arizona was going to offer sheet him at the max and the leafs knew that. (Per elliotte friedman)
May 16, 2020 at 11:45 a.m.
#2
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Dubas failed when he accepted Marner's premise that a 20 goal winger was in any way comparable to a pair of 40 goal Centres.
May 16, 2020 at 12:35 p.m.
#3
MisstheWhalers
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Maybe I'm wrong and someone here can correct me but didn't the Leafs get 1 season of Matthews UFA years? It's a 3 year ELC and then 4 RFA years is it not?

Also Nylanders AAV worked out to $6.9M cause it was prorated or bonus heavy or whatever but had that deal would of been signed on day one of training camp the AAV would of been $7.5M so only a $600K difference but still a bit more, if his AAV was $7.5M right now I wonder if there'd be some consternation about it.
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May 16, 2020 at 12:39 p.m.
#4
Bcarlo25
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Quoting: Jameshgfgn
Matthews got the money he did because Arizona was going to offer sheet him at the max and the leafs knew that. (Per elliotte friedman)


Show me a link where Elliotte Friedman said that.
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May 16, 2020 at 12:39 p.m.
#5
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Quoting: MisstheWhalers
Maybe I'm wrong and someone here can correct me but didn't the Leafs get 1 season of Matthews UFA years? It's a 3 year ELC and then 4 RFA years is it not?

Also Nylanders AAV worked out to $6.9M cause it was prorated or bonus heavy or whatever but had that deal would of been signed on day one of training camp the AAV would of been $7.5M so only a $600K difference but still a bit more, if his AAV was $7.5M right now I wonder if there'd be some consternation about it.


Yes they did.
May 16, 2020 at 12:40 p.m.
#6
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Eichels contract looks amazing right now👍🏼
Quoting: Bcarlo25
Show me a link where Elliotte Friedman said that.
May 16, 2020 at 12:42 p.m.
#7
Bcarlo25
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I don’t think Dubas did as well as you do. For that cap hit, Matthews should have carried an 8 year term of Dubas played any sort of hard ball.
That deal set the precedent in toronto. RFAs get top dollar at the term they want.
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May 16, 2020 at 12:43 p.m.
#8
Bcarlo25
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Quoting: BuFfaLOFaN
Eichels contract looks amazing right now👍🏼


Okay?
May 16, 2020 at 12:53 p.m.
#9
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Quoting: Bcarlo25
Okay?


Didn't mean 2 quote u
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May 16, 2020 at 12:55 p.m.
#10
The commissioner
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May 16, 2020 at 12:56 p.m.
#11
The commissioner
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Quoting: Bcarlo25
I don’t think Dubas did as well as you do. For that cap hit, Matthews should have carried an 8 year term of Dubas played any sort of hard ball.
That deal set the precedent in toronto. RFAs get top dollar at the term they want.

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/arizonasports.com/story/2289126/friedman-coyotes-believed-to-have-eyed-auston-matthews-offer-sheet/amp/

This is why it’s not 8 years
May 16, 2020 at 1:13 p.m.
#12
Terry_AkiSauce
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"Obviously its pretty clear he could have signed some of them for cheaper"

Lol imagine not being apart of any negotiations in your life and saying something like this. If it was obvious and pretty clear don't you think he would have signed them for less? You think Dubas wanted to have the most expensive 4 forwards on a single team? Stupid thing to say
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May 16, 2020 at 2:26 p.m.
#13
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Quoting: Bcarlo25
Show me a link where Elliotte Friedman said that.


He speculated about it Twice once on his podcast and again on spitten chiclets , bottom line is there wasn't a team out there who wouldn't of put a 5 year 12 million offer in front of him
May 16, 2020 at 2:34 p.m.
#14
Bcarlo25
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Quoting: Boomer125
He speculated about it Twice once on his podcast and again on spitten chiclets , bottom line is there wasn't a team out there who wouldn't of put a 5 year 12 million offer in front of him


Okay so he didn’t say it.

There were 30 teams that wouldn’t have made a 5x12 offer sheet. That’s just an absolutely delusional take.
May 16, 2020 at 2:36 p.m.
#15
Bcarlo25
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It’s not 8 years because Dubas is bad at his job.
May 16, 2020 at 2:43 p.m.
#16
No regretzkys
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Quoting: Terry_AkiSauce
"Obviously its pretty clear he could have signed some of them for cheaper"

Lol imagine not being apart of any negotiations in your life and saying something like this. If it was obvious and pretty clear don't you think he would have signed them for less? You think Dubas wanted to have the most expensive 4 forwards on a single team? Stupid thing to say


Most people would agree they were overpaid in some way or another. Don't think its stupid to say..
Obviously they drove a tough bargain, but ultimately Dubas was the one who caved most. He could have played hardball and gotten them to sign for less I would wager is the sentiment here.

I think the point is that they are all signed and that was the goal from the start and that is were Dubas deserves credit
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May 16, 2020 at 3:10 p.m.
#17
Dubas isnt a genius
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Quoting: Bcarlo25
I don’t think Dubas did as well as you do. For that cap hit, Matthews should have carried an 8 year term of Dubas played any sort of hard ball.
That deal set the precedent in toronto. RFAs get top dollar at the term they want.


Problem is Dubas was a new GM and agents knew it. Definitely something he has to work on.
May 16, 2020 at 3:17 p.m.
#18
Bcarlo25
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Quoting: firezfurx
Problem is Dubas was a new GM and agents knew it. Definitely something he has to work on.


I don’t really think that’s a worthwhile excuse. Sweeney was a new GM and got Marchand and Pastrnak on long term contracts under 7 million. Granted, he has plenty of other things that he’s pretty bad at. His UFA signings outside the organization have been hideous.
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May 16, 2020 at 3:23 p.m.
#19
Dubas isnt a genius
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Quoting: Bcarlo25
I don’t really think that’s a worthwhile excuse. Sweeney was a new GM and got Marchand and Pastrnak on long term contracts under 7 million. Granted, he has plenty of other things that he’s pretty bad at. His UFA signings outside the organization have been hideous.


Also, I don't think the signings are that bad. Age plays a huge factor and Dubas basically punched his ticket on the playoff train for the next 5 years. If that's what it costs then so be it.
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May 16, 2020 at 3:24 p.m.
#20
The commissioner
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Quoting: Bcarlo25
It’s not 8 years because Dubas is bad at his job.

Yeah not losing him to an offer sheet totally makes him a bad GM. Your logic totally makes sense
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May 16, 2020 at 3:36 p.m.
#21
Bcarlo25
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Quoting: Jameshgfgn
Yeah not losing him to an offer sheet totally makes him a bad GM. Your logic totally makes sense


A player hasn’t been lost to an offer sheet since Dustin penner. If not losing a guy to an offer sheet is your bar for doing a good job, you’re likely to have a pretty low standard for GMs
May 16, 2020 at 3:41 p.m.
#22
The commissioner
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Quoting: Bcarlo25
A player hasn’t been lost to an offer sheet since Dustin penner. If not losing a guy to an offer sheet is your bar for doing a good job, you’re likely to have a pretty low standard for GMs

He would have been lost if he got offer sheet as they were going to do max. Having him for 5 years at around 11.6 is not bad when you compare it to what was GOING to happen
May 16, 2020 at 3:51 p.m.
#23
Bcarlo25
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Quoting: Jameshgfgn
He would have been lost if he got offer sheet as they were going to do max. Having him for 5 years at around 11.6 is not bad when you compare it to what was GOING to happen


How do you know what was going to happen? There’s only really been one major offer sheet since the 2004 lockout. You’re just anticipating the first time a max contract has been signed since Alex ovechkin, and mixing in an unheard of offersheet to boot? Maybe look into getting a refund on your crystal ball bud.
May 16, 2020 at 3:53 p.m.
#24
Bcarlo25
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Quoting: firezfurx
Also, I don't think the signings are that bad. Age plays a huge factor and Dubas basically punched his ticket on the playoff train for the next 5 years. If that's what it costs then so be it.


Ya he kinda punched the ticket on the “unbalanced team that can’t win in the playoffs,” for the next 5 years too.
May 16, 2020 at 4:09 p.m.
#25
The commissioner
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Quoting: Bcarlo25
How do you know what was going to happen? There’s only really been one major offer sheet since the 2004 lockout. You’re just anticipating the first time a max contract has been signed since Alex ovechkin, and mixing in an unheard of offersheet to boot? Maybe look into getting a refund on your crystal ball bud.

Have you seriously not read the article I sent there is the crystal ball. Almost the entire league believed it was going to happen
 
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