Forums/Armchair-GM

Hindsight signings of the big 3

Created by: treemos27
Initial Creation Date: May 16, 2020
Published: May 16, 2020 at 11:39
Team: 2020-21 Toronto Maple Leafs
Team Explanation
Here is the rational...

Matthews: Matthews camp clearly wanted a 5 year term. They wanted two kicks at the can to cash in give him options at 27. 5 years doesn't buy any UFA years and at the time Matthews numbers, although impressive, were not quite "Elite" even though it was obvious he would soon get there.
Dubas could have said we are giving you Tavares' number because our culture is about "team" and not about 1 player being "the guy".
11 x 5 is a great deal for Matthews and it works for the Leafs. It is still a good enough offer that even if someone tried to offer sheet, the offer wouldn't have been big enough to sway Matthews away.

Nylander: The contract was fine. The way it was allowed to be signed was not. If you're the GM of a team you need to establish an appropriate culture. In this case, the word to Nylander needed to be "Here is 7 x 6, that is our final offer." We really want William on this team and you have every right to negotiate the best possible deal, but this is it. If the deal isn't signed by Oct 1st, he will sit out the season. No team in the NHL was going to beat 7 x 6 via offer sheet. Any more than that and the compensation would be 2- 1st rounders, 1- 2nd rounder, 1- 3rd rounder.

Marner: This was probably the biggest overpay and in my opinion was a simple case of a big bluff from Marner camp and Dubas fell for it a little.
Marner had a good argument, using Tavares and Matthews as comparables and threatening with offer sheets. The reality is Marner was going to be a Leaf. He wasn't going to sign an offer sheet with CLB or NYI. And if he did, you have to accept that. If a team was willing to make him the highest paid player in the NHL there isn't much you can do about that.
So.. Similar to the Nylander situation. You offer 10 x 6 which is still technically a slight overpay based on comparables and you say "You have until Oct 1."
He would sign. And if he didn't you could either match an offer sheet that would likely be cheaper than his current contract or you take the 4 1st rounders.

All in all I think Dubas did a good job. He identified his core guys, he promised to sign them all and he did. Obviously its pretty clear he could have signed some of them for cheaper. My analysis is that he could have saved about 1.5-2 mill between the 3 of them. Those who suggest he could saved 4+ mill are being ridiculous.

Thats my take
Free Agent Signings
CREATEDYEARSCAP HIT
Matthews, Auston5$11,000,000
Nylander, William6$6,962,366
Marner, Mitch6$10,000,000
Trades
TOR
    ANA
    1. Matthews, Auston
    2. Marner, Mitchell
    3. Nylander, William
    Buyouts
    • Mikhail Grabovski: $0
    Retained Salary Transactions
    • Phil Kessel: $1,200,000 (15%)
    DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
    2020
    TOR
    TOR
    VGK
    VGK
    TOR
    CAR
    COL
    SJS
    STL
    WPG
    2021
    TOR
    TOR
    TOR
    TOR
    TOR
    TOR
    2022
    TOR
    TOR
    TOR
    TOR
    TOR
    TOR
    TOR
    ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES BONUSESCAP SPACE
    17$81,500,000$75,381,533$0$0$6,118,467
    Left WingCenterRight Wing
    TOR
    Johnsson, Andreas
    $3,400,000
    LW, RW
    UFA - 3
    Matthews, Auston
    $11,000,000
    Marner, Mitch
    $10,000,000
    TOR
    Hyman, Zach
    $2,250,000
    LW, RW
    NTC
    UFA - 1
    TOR
    Tavares, John
    $11,000,000
    C
    NMC
    UFA - 5
    Nylander, William
    $6,962,366
    TOR
    Engvall, Pierre
    $1,250,000
    LW, C
    RFA - 2
    TOR
    Kerfoot, Alexander
    $3,500,000
    C, LW
    UFA - 3
    TOR
    Kapanen, Kasperi
    $3,200,000
    RW
    RFA - 2
    Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
    TOR
    Rielly, Morgan
    $5,000,000
    LD
    NTC
    UFA - 2
    TOR
    Holl, Justin
    $2,000,000
    RD
    NTC
    UFA - 3
    TOR
    Andersen, Frederik
    $5,000,000
    G
    NTC
    UFA - 1
    TOR
    Muzzin, Jake
    $5,625,000
    LD
    NMC
    UFA - 4
    TOR
    Campbell, Jack
    $1,650,000
    G
    UFA - 2
    TOR
    Sandin, Rasmus
    $894,167
    LD
    RFA - 2
    TOR
    Rosén, Calle
    $750,000
    LD
    UFA - 1
    TOR
    Marincin, Martin
    $700,000
    LD
    UFA - 1

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    May 16, 2020 at 11:45
    #1
    The commissioner
    Joined: Feb 2020
    Posts: 790
    Likes: 100
    Matthews got the money he did because Arizona was going to offer sheet him at the max and the leafs knew that. (Per elliotte friedman)
    May 16, 2020 at 11:45
    #2
    Joined: Jan 2018
    Posts: 10,784
    Likes: 6,189
    Dubas failed when he accepted Marner's premise that a 20 goal winger was in any way comparable to a pair of 40 goal Centres.
    May 16, 2020 at 12:35
    #3
    MisstheWhalers
    Joined: Jan 2019
    Posts: 13,525
    Likes: 5,907
    Maybe I'm wrong and someone here can correct me but didn't the Leafs get 1 season of Matthews UFA years? It's a 3 year ELC and then 4 RFA years is it not?

    Also Nylanders AAV worked out to $6.9M cause it was prorated or bonus heavy or whatever but had that deal would of been signed on day one of training camp the AAV would of been $7.5M so only a $600K difference but still a bit more, if his AAV was $7.5M right now I wonder if there'd be some consternation about it.
    BuFfaLOFaN liked this.
    May 16, 2020 at 12:39
    #4
    Bcarlo25
    Joined: May 2018
    Posts: 19,298
    Likes: 6,450
    Quoting: Jameshgfgn
    Matthews got the money he did because Arizona was going to offer sheet him at the max and the leafs knew that. (Per elliotte friedman)


    Show me a link where Elliotte Friedman said that.
    BuFfaLOFaN liked this.
    May 16, 2020 at 12:39
    #5
    Joined: Jul 2019
    Posts: 5,269
    Likes: 2,156
    Quoting: MisstheWhalers
    Maybe I'm wrong and someone here can correct me but didn't the Leafs get 1 season of Matthews UFA years? It's a 3 year ELC and then 4 RFA years is it not?

    Also Nylanders AAV worked out to $6.9M cause it was prorated or bonus heavy or whatever but had that deal would of been signed on day one of training camp the AAV would of been $7.5M so only a $600K difference but still a bit more, if his AAV was $7.5M right now I wonder if there'd be some consternation about it.


    Yes they did.
    May 16, 2020 at 12:40
    #6
    Joined: Jul 2019
    Posts: 5,269
    Likes: 2,156
    Eichels contract looks amazing right now👍🏼
    Quoting: Bcarlo25
    Show me a link where Elliotte Friedman said that.
    May 16, 2020 at 12:42
    #7
    Bcarlo25
    Joined: May 2018
    Posts: 19,298
    Likes: 6,450
    I don’t think Dubas did as well as you do. For that cap hit, Matthews should have carried an 8 year term of Dubas played any sort of hard ball.
    That deal set the precedent in toronto. RFAs get top dollar at the term they want.
    BuFfaLOFaN liked this.
    May 16, 2020 at 12:43
    #8
    Bcarlo25
    Joined: May 2018
    Posts: 19,298
    Likes: 6,450
    Quoting: BuFfaLOFaN
    Eichels contract looks amazing right now👍🏼


    Okay?
    May 16, 2020 at 12:53
    #9
    Joined: Jul 2019
    Posts: 5,269
    Likes: 2,156
    Quoting: Bcarlo25
    Okay?


    Didn't mean 2 quote u
    Bcarlo25 liked this.
    May 16, 2020 at 12:55
    #10
    The commissioner
    Joined: Feb 2020
    Posts: 790
    Likes: 100
    May 16, 2020 at 12:56
    #11
    The commissioner
    Joined: Feb 2020
    Posts: 790
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    Quoting: Bcarlo25
    I don’t think Dubas did as well as you do. For that cap hit, Matthews should have carried an 8 year term of Dubas played any sort of hard ball.
    That deal set the precedent in toronto. RFAs get top dollar at the term they want.

    https://www.google.ca/amp/s/arizonasports.com/story/2289126/friedman-coyotes-believed-to-have-eyed-auston-matthews-offer-sheet/amp/

    This is why it’s not 8 years
    May 16, 2020 at 1:13
    #12
    Terry_AkiSauce
    Joined: Jun 2019
    Posts: 1,593
    Likes: 601
    "Obviously its pretty clear he could have signed some of them for cheaper"

    Lol imagine not being apart of any negotiations in your life and saying something like this. If it was obvious and pretty clear don't you think he would have signed them for less? You think Dubas wanted to have the most expensive 4 forwards on a single team? Stupid thing to say
    firezfurx liked this.
    May 16, 2020 at 2:26
    #13
    Joined: Apr 2019
    Posts: 5,447
    Likes: 1,291
    Quoting: Bcarlo25
    Show me a link where Elliotte Friedman said that.


    He speculated about it Twice once on his podcast and again on spitten chiclets , bottom line is there wasn't a team out there who wouldn't of put a 5 year 12 million offer in front of him
    May 16, 2020 at 2:34
    #14
    Bcarlo25
    Joined: May 2018
    Posts: 19,298
    Likes: 6,450
    Quoting: Boomer125
    He speculated about it Twice once on his podcast and again on spitten chiclets , bottom line is there wasn't a team out there who wouldn't of put a 5 year 12 million offer in front of him


    Okay so he didn’t say it.

    There were 30 teams that wouldn’t have made a 5x12 offer sheet. That’s just an absolutely delusional take.
    May 16, 2020 at 2:36
    #15
    Bcarlo25
    Joined: May 2018
    Posts: 19,298
    Likes: 6,450


    It’s not 8 years because Dubas is bad at his job.
    May 16, 2020 at 2:43
    #16
    No regretzkys
    Joined: Aug 2019
    Posts: 413
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    Quoting: Terry_AkiSauce
    "Obviously its pretty clear he could have signed some of them for cheaper"

    Lol imagine not being apart of any negotiations in your life and saying something like this. If it was obvious and pretty clear don't you think he would have signed them for less? You think Dubas wanted to have the most expensive 4 forwards on a single team? Stupid thing to say


    Most people would agree they were overpaid in some way or another. Don't think its stupid to say..
    Obviously they drove a tough bargain, but ultimately Dubas was the one who caved most. He could have played hardball and gotten them to sign for less I would wager is the sentiment here.

    I think the point is that they are all signed and that was the goal from the start and that is were Dubas deserves credit
    treemos27 liked this.
    May 16, 2020 at 3:10
    #17
    Dubas isnt a genius
    Joined: Apr 2020
    Posts: 2,812
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    Quoting: Bcarlo25
    I don’t think Dubas did as well as you do. For that cap hit, Matthews should have carried an 8 year term of Dubas played any sort of hard ball.
    That deal set the precedent in toronto. RFAs get top dollar at the term they want.


    Problem is Dubas was a new GM and agents knew it. Definitely something he has to work on.
    May 16, 2020 at 3:17
    #18
    Bcarlo25
    Joined: May 2018
    Posts: 19,298
    Likes: 6,450
    Quoting: firezfurx
    Problem is Dubas was a new GM and agents knew it. Definitely something he has to work on.


    I don’t really think that’s a worthwhile excuse. Sweeney was a new GM and got Marchand and Pastrnak on long term contracts under 7 million. Granted, he has plenty of other things that he’s pretty bad at. His UFA signings outside the organization have been hideous.
    firezfurx liked this.
    May 16, 2020 at 3:23
    #19
    Dubas isnt a genius
    Joined: Apr 2020
    Posts: 2,812
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    Quoting: Bcarlo25
    I don’t really think that’s a worthwhile excuse. Sweeney was a new GM and got Marchand and Pastrnak on long term contracts under 7 million. Granted, he has plenty of other things that he’s pretty bad at. His UFA signings outside the organization have been hideous.


    Also, I don't think the signings are that bad. Age plays a huge factor and Dubas basically punched his ticket on the playoff train for the next 5 years. If that's what it costs then so be it.
    treemos27 liked this.
    May 16, 2020 at 3:24
    #20
    The commissioner
    Joined: Feb 2020
    Posts: 790
    Likes: 100
    Quoting: Bcarlo25
    It’s not 8 years because Dubas is bad at his job.

    Yeah not losing him to an offer sheet totally makes him a bad GM. Your logic totally makes sense
    treemos27 liked this.
    May 16, 2020 at 3:36
    #21
    Bcarlo25
    Joined: May 2018
    Posts: 19,298
    Likes: 6,450
    Quoting: Jameshgfgn
    Yeah not losing him to an offer sheet totally makes him a bad GM. Your logic totally makes sense


    A player hasn’t been lost to an offer sheet since Dustin penner. If not losing a guy to an offer sheet is your bar for doing a good job, you’re likely to have a pretty low standard for GMs
    May 16, 2020 at 3:41
    #22
    The commissioner
    Joined: Feb 2020
    Posts: 790
    Likes: 100
    Quoting: Bcarlo25
    A player hasn’t been lost to an offer sheet since Dustin penner. If not losing a guy to an offer sheet is your bar for doing a good job, you’re likely to have a pretty low standard for GMs

    He would have been lost if he got offer sheet as they were going to do max. Having him for 5 years at around 11.6 is not bad when you compare it to what was GOING to happen
    May 16, 2020 at 3:51
    #23
    Bcarlo25
    Joined: May 2018
    Posts: 19,298
    Likes: 6,450
    Quoting: Jameshgfgn
    He would have been lost if he got offer sheet as they were going to do max. Having him for 5 years at around 11.6 is not bad when you compare it to what was GOING to happen


    How do you know what was going to happen? There’s only really been one major offer sheet since the 2004 lockout. You’re just anticipating the first time a max contract has been signed since Alex ovechkin, and mixing in an unheard of offersheet to boot? Maybe look into getting a refund on your crystal ball bud.
    May 16, 2020 at 3:53
    #24
    Bcarlo25
    Joined: May 2018
    Posts: 19,298
    Likes: 6,450
    Quoting: firezfurx
    Also, I don't think the signings are that bad. Age plays a huge factor and Dubas basically punched his ticket on the playoff train for the next 5 years. If that's what it costs then so be it.


    Ya he kinda punched the ticket on the “unbalanced team that can’t win in the playoffs,” for the next 5 years too.
    May 16, 2020 at 4:09
    #25
    The commissioner
    Joined: Feb 2020
    Posts: 790
    Likes: 100
    Quoting: Bcarlo25
    How do you know what was going to happen? There’s only really been one major offer sheet since the 2004 lockout. You’re just anticipating the first time a max contract has been signed since Alex ovechkin, and mixing in an unheard of offersheet to boot? Maybe look into getting a refund on your crystal ball bud.

    Have you seriously not read the article I sent there is the crystal ball. Almost the entire league believed it was going to happen
     
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