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Using Jarry as bait

Created by: dgfresh78
Team: 2020-21 Pittsburgh Penguins
Initial Creation Date: May 19, 2020
Published: May 19, 2020
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5$5,850,000
2$1,000,000
2$1,500,000
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2$725,000
2$725,000
2$725,000
2$725,000
2$725,000
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1.
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2.
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MIN
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2020
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23$81,500,000$76,388,508$0$1,062,500$5,111,492
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May 19, 2020 at 8:55 a.m.
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If DET wanted to do this, it would probably be more of 4th going back to PIT not a 2nd. I know you're probably using the Orpik-Grubauer trade, but Orpik was less of a burden than Johnson and Grubauer was more established than Jarry.
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May 19, 2020 at 8:57 a.m.
#2
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Quoting: ClockReads2113
If DET wanted to do this, it would probably be more of 4th going back to PIT not a 2nd. I know you're probably using the Orpik-Grubauer trade, but Orpik was less of a burden than Johnson and Grubauer was more established than Jarry.


This might be an unpopular opinion but I’d be content with a 3rd or a 4th.
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May 19, 2020 at 9:05 a.m.
#3
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Quoting: ClockReads2113
If DET wanted to do this, it would probably be more of 4th going back to PIT not a 2nd. I know you're probably using the Orpik-Grubauer trade, but Orpik was less of a burden than Johnson and Grubauer was more established than Jarry.


As a Detroit fan I think with Johnson that 2020 3rd (SJS) would be pretty fair.
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May 19, 2020 at 9:13 a.m.
#4
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Quoting: dgfresh78
This might be an unpopular opinion but I’d be content with a 3rd or a 4th.


Yeah to move out Johnson it seems certainly worth it no matter the return.
May 19, 2020 at 10:39 a.m.
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people on here hate JJ.
tears of joy
May 19, 2020 at 10:55 a.m.
#6
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Quoting: dgfresh78
This might be an unpopular opinion but I’d be content with a 3rd or a 4th.


You do understand? That adding Johnson to the deal, Lessens Jarry's value not make it the same. Jarry might get a 2nd. But adding Johnson to the deal. Like you said probably looking at a 3rd+4th rounder instead.
May 19, 2020 at 10:56 a.m.
#7
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Why would u trade a Young Starting Goalie, that the Pens groomed & invested time in for all these yrs ..... just to get rid of JJ??
May 19, 2020 at 11:09 a.m.
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Quoting: pharrow
people on here hate JJ.
tears of joy


Quoting: Sidstick87
Why would u trade a Young Starting Goalie, that the Pens groomed & invested time in for all these yrs ..... just to get rid of JJ??


I’ve been running this for like 3 weeks now and you guys finally found an issue with it 😂
May 19, 2020 at 11:21 a.m.
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Quoting: pharrow
people on here hate JJ.
tears of joy


Pens need defensemen who are mobile & can move the puck up the ice to the forwards in quick transition. JJ doesn’t fit their system, plus he’s terrible defensively. Every time when he’s on the ice, the Pens get badly outshot & out-chanced. Without him, the team generates much more offensive zone time & shot attempts. JJ can’t get the puck out, can’t defend the front of the net & is always out of position. The only stats he leads in are hits & blocks, but that’s because he’s always defending in his own end.
May 19, 2020 at 11:22 a.m.
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Quoting: dgfresh78
I’ve been running this for like 3 weeks now and you guys finally found an issue with it 😂


finally?
I have been saying for some time, if he can move Maatta and Gudbranson in the same season. He can move JJ.
We'll see, every year he gets easier to move because it's one less year on contract. Last year it was 4, now it's 3.
If a team uses him as a stop gap, for one season, the buyout is down to 2 years, and only 3.5 M of real money. Almost what they would pay him in 1 season to keep him. At which point he's bought out.
So that contract is really, a 1 year deal for any team to take. And a very small cap hit for 4 years.
He'll find a team needing defense willing to bite on that. He'll return a 5th or 6th. Futures is possible.
But it won't cost Jarry to move him.
May 19, 2020 at 11:31 a.m.
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Quoting: MitchMarnerElite
Pens need defensemen who are mobile & can move the puck up the ice to the forwards in quick transition. JJ doesn’t fit their system, plus he’s terrible defensively. Every time when he’s on the ice, the Pens get badly outshot & out-chanced. Without him, the team generates much more offensive zone time & shot attempts. JJ can’t get the puck out, can’t defend the front of the net & is always out of position. The only stats he leads in are hits & blocks, but that’s because he’s always defending in his own end.


There are plenty of worse defense men than JJ.
He gets most of his starts in the D zone to start with it's over 60%. So lets not pretend on how he gets in his own end.
Fact is his play is fine, hell not even the JJ hating pittsburgh media could muster up a single complaint on him when he was a 3LD. You know, where he belongs. They had to *gasp* admit he was playing decently.....they would never admit he played well.
You would judge him on the role he got stuck playing as a 1LD. Of course he can't play there, neither can any other 3LD. Nor can he play 2RD on his off side. *shocked*.

Fact is he's a decent enough 3LD, not great, not bad, just chipping in where he can. Hell the goals were more for the team than the opponent when he was a 3LD.
But it is what it is.

Either way, that contract has 1 year left on it till it's bought out by someone. Period. Because the buyout after next year is the same as paying him in real money. So they save money in doing it and moving on.
So you can sure as hell bet he's bought out.
So the question you have to ask yourself is, what does it cost to move that if anything. And I'm going to say it doesn't. They can find someone needing defense to take that contract for 1 year as a stop gap and then be bought out.
May 19, 2020 at 11:44 a.m.
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Quoting: pharrow
There are plenty of worse defense men than JJ.
He gets most of his starts in the D zone to start with it's over 60%. So lets not pretend on how he gets in his own end.
Fact is his play is fine, hell not even the JJ hating pittsburgh media could muster up a single complaint on him when he was a 3LD. You know, where he belongs. They had to *gasp* admit he was playing decently.....they would never admit he played well.
You would judge him on the role he got stuck playing as a 1LD. Of course he can't play there, neither can any other 3LD. Nor can he play 2RD on his off side. *shocked*.

Fact is he's a decent enough 3LD, not great, not bad, just chipping in where he can. Hell the goals were more for the team than the opponent when he was a 3LD.
But it is what it is.

Either way, that contract has 1 year left on it till it's bought out by someone. Period. Because the buyout after next year is the same as paying him in real money. So they save money in doing it and moving on.
So you can sure as hell bet he's bought out.
So the question you have to ask yourself is, what does it cost to move that if anything. And I'm going to say it doesn't. They can find someone needing defense to take that contract for 1 year as a stop gap and then be bought out.


I really hope you are right that someone will take him without the Pens having to give up assets, but I doubt it. Based on Kristopher Fudge’s model, Jack Johnson has an expected goals against percentage of 80 during the time he’s spent on the left side this season. This means 80 percent of the time when he’s on the ice the team gives up a quality scoring chance. You keep saying he has done great but the stats say he’s been horrible. Below replacement level bad.
May 19, 2020 at 11:51 a.m.
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Quoting: MitchMarnerElite
I really hope you are right that someone will take him without the Pens having to give up assets, but I doubt it. Based on Kristopher Fudge’s model, Jack Johnson has an expected goals against percentage of 80 which means 80 percent of the time when he’s on the ice the team gives up a quality scoring chance this season while playing on the left side third pairing. You keep saying he has done good but the stats say he’s done horribly.


Don't mean ****.
Dumo last game was 11-30 before the break.
JJ was a +7 on the ice.
JJ after dumo got back -1.
Inbetween. he was -7.
Come tell me the other team was 80% chance of scoring.

Everyone wants to blame the guy for his play out of his league. Fact is the team was winning on the ice when he was on a 3rd pair.
May 19, 2020 at 11:59 a.m.
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Quoting: pharrow
finally?
I have been saying for some time, if he can move Maatta and Gudbranson in the same season. He can move JJ.
We'll see, every year he gets easier to move because it's one less year on contract. Last year it was 4, now it's 3.
If a team uses him as a stop gap, for one season, the buyout is down to 2 years, and only 3.5 M of real money. Almost what they would pay him in 1 season to keep him. At which point he's bought out.
So that contract is really, a 1 year deal for any team to take. And a very small cap hit for 4 years.
He'll find a team needing defense willing to bite on that. He'll return a 5th or 6th. Futures is possible.
But it won't cost Jarry to move him.


Being able to move him without anything attached would be ideal. I’m just running this concept because it’s similar to what Washington did with Grubauer and Orpik. Either way I don’t see the penguins being able to hold onto JJ or Bjugstad with the cap staying at $81.5M.
May 19, 2020 at 12:09 p.m.
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Quoting: dgfresh78
Being able to move him without anything attached would be ideal. I’m just running this concept because it’s similar to what Washington did with Grubauer and Orpik. Either way I don’t see the penguins being able to hold onto JJ or Bjugstad with the cap staying at $81.5M.


Someone has to go for sure.
But I also know there is never enough defense. Every year same story. Teams looking for defense.
Lots of FA defense this year.....problem is every team that loses a guy has to replace a guy.
Every year the number of guys coming in does not necessarily meet the number of holes on teams.
Think where would the penguins have been if Marino didn't work out. We'd still have Gudbranson.
So there is a reality to moving him.
What I do know is after next year his buyout is 3.5 million. As opposed to paying him 6.5 million over the next 2 seasons.
So unless he plays really well somewhere next year, it's his final year. Because the buyout cap hit is 1.1, 1.8, .87, .87
Which is nothing to most teams.
So teams needing defense, who are nowhere near the cap will look at that and say, whatever.
As opposed to giving up assets to someone else for their needs. Which most likely won't be a great return.
May 19, 2020 at 12:37 p.m.
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Quoting: pharrow
Someone has to go for sure.
But I also know there is never enough defense. Every year same story. Teams looking for defense.
Lots of FA defense this year.....problem is every team that loses a guy has to replace a guy.
Every year the number of guys coming in does not necessarily meet the number of holes on teams.
Think where would the penguins have been if Marino didn't work out. We'd still have Gudbranson.
So there is a reality to moving him.
What I do know is after next year his buyout is 3.5 million. As opposed to paying him 6.5 million over the next 2 seasons.
So unless he plays really well somewhere next year, it's his final year. Because the buyout cap hit is 1.1, 1.8, .87, .87
Which is nothing to most teams.
So teams needing defense, who are nowhere near the cap will look at that and say, whatever.
As opposed to giving up assets to someone else for their needs. Which most likely won't be a great return.


That’s what they need to be banking on because having both goalies for next season is ideal especially with expansion looming. My non bias/politically correct prediction is that GMJR finds a way to keep both setting up for Murray to go to Seattle and Marino getting paid as a result.
May 19, 2020 at 4:24 p.m.
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Quoting: pharrow
Don't mean ****.
Dumo last game was 11-30 before the break.
JJ was a +7 on the ice.
JJ after dumo got back -1.
Inbetween. he was -7.
Come tell me the other team was 80% chance of scoring.

Everyone wants to blame the guy for his play out of his league. Fact is the team was winning on the ice when he was on a 3rd pair.


Sure, Dumoulin got outshot & outchanced for 1 stretch, which was when the team had their biggest slump of the year. The thing with JJ is, his teams have been getting heavily outshot & outchanced when he’s on the ice for his whole career. He was never a great defender. If you look at his defense shot map, the majority of the shots that come are in front of the net, which is the area he’s supposed to cover. You keep making excuses downplaying his poor results, but no matter what role he plays, he gets heavily outshot & Outchanced. So it’s not a coincidence that he’s being regarded as a bad defenseman.
May 19, 2020 at 6:47 p.m.
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Quoting: MitchMarnerElite
Sure, Dumoulin got outshot & outchanced for 1 stretch, which was when the team had their biggest slump of the year. The thing with JJ is, his teams have been getting heavily outshot & outchanced when he’s on the ice for his whole career. He was never a great defender. If you look at his defense shot map, the majority of the shots that come are in front of the net, which is the area he’s supposed to cover. You keep making excuses downplaying his poor results, but no matter what role he plays, he gets heavily outshot & Outchanced. So it’s not a coincidence that he’s being regarded as a bad defenseman.


first it was out scored, now it's out shot.
He's out there on the 3rd pair with the 3rd and 4th lines most likely matched up against 1st and 2nd lines who are starting in the Ozone. But it's all on JJ.
Never mind they don't have a single guy but Crosby who can take a face off and help relieve that pressure from the start. Or any other areas of the game that have nothing at all to do with him. It's all HIS fault.
Here is what I know. The team was winning with him on the ice. With the 3rd and 4th lines.
I don't know what else you can ask for. Shots mean nothing. Goals mean everything. Every team in the league has 3rd pair defenders who aren't great. Every one. If they were any better they wouldn't be 3rd pair defenders. You seem to think he should be the same level as a 1LD. Well he's not. Get over it.
He's not nearly as bad as you make him to be. Most people who watched the games get that. How many times did Letang cough the puck up right in front of the goalie and the other team scored. Like you the camera man would put the camera right on JJ. What a dirt bag move that always was. Even though it had nothing to do with him. But somehow someone finds ways to say, oh he's so horrible.
Believe me, He is not their biggest issue on the blue line. Schultz is incompetent. Letang is a turn over machine. You want to start laying blame, you should start there. Not the 3rd pairing guy.
May 19, 2020 at 7:05 p.m.
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I really have no interest in Bjugstad, but for that price I'd be okay with taking a chance on him if MN doesn't re-sign Chucky or get Haula as a UFA.
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May 19, 2020 at 7:19 p.m.
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Quoting: dgfresh78
I’ve been running this for like 3 weeks now and you guys finally found an issue with it 😂


Id also take about 30-40 UFA forwards before Id re-sign FallsDown43.
May 19, 2020 at 8:00 p.m.
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Quoting: pharrow
first it was out scored, now it's out shot.
He's out there on the 3rd pair with the 3rd and 4th lines most likely matched up against 1st and 2nd lines who are starting in the Ozone. But it's all on JJ.
Never mind they don't have a single guy but Crosby who can take a face off and help relieve that pressure from the start. Or any other areas of the game that have nothing at all to do with him. It's all HIS fault.
Here is what I know. The team was winning with him on the ice. With the 3rd and 4th lines.
I don't know what else you can ask for. Shots mean nothing. Goals mean everything. Every team in the league has 3rd pair defenders who aren't great. Every one. If they were any better they wouldn't be 3rd pair defenders. You seem to think he should be the same level as a 1LD. Well he's not. Get over it.
He's not nearly as bad as you make him to be. Most people who watched the games get that. How many times did Letang cough the puck up right in front of the goalie and the other team scored. Like you the camera man would put the camera right on JJ. What a dirt bag move that always was. Even though it had nothing to do with him. But somehow someone finds ways to say, oh he's so horrible.
Believe me, He is not their biggest issue on the blue line. Schultz is incompetent. Letang is a turn over machine. You want to start laying blame, you should start there. Not the 3rd pairing guy.


Quoting: pharrow
first it was out scored, now it's out shot.
He's out there on the 3rd pair with the 3rd and 4th lines most likely matched up against 1st and 2nd lines who are starting in the Ozone. But it's all on JJ.
Never mind they don't have a single guy but Crosby who can take a face off and help relieve that pressure from the start. Or any other areas of the game that have nothing at all to do with him. It's all HIS fault.
Here is what I know. The team was winning with him on the ice. With the 3rd and 4th lines.
I don't know what else you can ask for. Shots mean nothing. Goals mean everything. Every team in the league has 3rd pair defenders who aren't great. Every one. If they were any better they wouldn't be 3rd pair defenders. You seem to think he should be the same level as a 1LD. Well he's not. Get over it.
He's not nearly as bad as you make him to be. Most people who watched the games get that. How many times did Letang cough the puck up right in front of the goalie and the other team scored. Like you the camera man would put the camera right on JJ. What a dirt bag move that always was. Even though it had nothing to do with him. But somehow someone finds ways to say, oh he's so horrible.
Believe me, He is not their biggest issue on the blue line. Schultz is incompetent. Letang is a turn over machine. You want to start laying blame, you should start there. Not the 3rd pairing guy.


I’m not asking for JJ to play like an elite top pairing D, all I want is for him to be a serviceable third pairing guy, which he isn’t. Your first argument is incorrect, during the games Dumoulin has been healthy, JJ was very sheltered on the third pair matching up against other team’s fourth lines, yet he still had a scoring chance differential of 20% (20% he’s on the ice for a scoring chance for, 80% against). Also, the forwards he shared the ice with were McCann, Blueger, Tanev & ZAR, all excellent defensive forwards. Now explain to me: Why aren’t any of the other players on the team conceding shots & scoring chances at the high rate JJ is? Schultz has not been good by any means, but his scoring chance differential is 48%? Why is it that much better than JJ? Why are the majority of other third pairing defenders around the league conceding shot attempts & chances at far lower rates than JJ has while he’s played on the third pair? How come JJ’s results are so much worse compared to the team average & league average? The truth is, there is only one common denominator here & that is JJ himself. Since he can’t exit the zone & can’t defend the front of the net, the opposing teams get all kinds of opportunities from around the crease. He’s a bad defenseman who shouldn’t be playing over Riikola.
May 20, 2020 at 3:35 a.m.
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Quoting: MitchMarnerElite
I’m not asking for JJ to play like an elite top pairing D, all I want is for him to be a serviceable third pairing guy, which he isn’t. Your first argument is incorrect, during the games Dumoulin has been healthy, JJ was very sheltered on the third pair matching up against other team’s fourth lines, yet he still had a scoring chance differential of 20% (20% he’s on the ice for a scoring chance for, 80% against). Also, the forwards he shared the ice with were McCann, Blueger, Tanev & ZAR, all excellent defensive forwards. Now explain to me: Why aren’t any of the other players on the team conceding shots & scoring chances at the high rate JJ is? Schultz has not been good by any means, but his scoring chance differential is 48%? Why is it that much better than JJ? Why are the majority of other third pairing defenders around the league conceding shot attempts & chances at far lower rates than JJ has while he’s played on the third pair? How come JJ’s results are so much worse compared to the team average & league average? The truth is, there is only one common denominator here & that is JJ himself. Since he can’t exit the zone & can’t defend the front of the net, the opposing teams get all kinds of opportunities from around the crease. He’s a bad defenseman who shouldn’t be playing over Riikola.


Schultz is by far their worse defense man who is the one who is actually sheltered you understand that right?
The guy gets 56.4 % of his starts in the Ozone and is a -17.
JJ got the majority of his starts in the D zone and was a +6 in the 3rd pairing role.

You tell me, who is the team winning with on the ice?

No one is arguing that JJ is a good defense man. He's just not nearly as bad as you claim him to be. He's frankly your average 3rd pair guy.
Believe me there are much worse and there has been much worse here. Remember Hunwick, they wouldn't even allow him to lace up he was so bad.

It's hard to really sit here and say RIikola is actually a better defense man. He is way more sheltered with 56.6% of his starts in the Ozone. That's the most of any LD on the team. And a head of JJ by far. So if you want to talk about what LD is sheltered It's Riikola.
So I'm not sure how you get JJ is sheltered. When it comes to defensive starts he's 1st on the team on the LD. Followed by Dumo, and then MP.
Every time the team is down on that end of the ice, he's the guy who is always over the boards. And guess what. The puck is going in the net more the other way.....as a consistent trend when he's in the 3rd pairing.
I don't know what more you can ask for. Some useless stat that doesn't mean anything isn't really telling the story of what is happening on the ice.
And while JJ isn't great, the truth is they could have far worse out there. As other teams do.
The ideal situation for every team in the league is to put their 1st line out against the other teams 2nd or 3rd pair for a reason.
I will tell you right now, the last guy I want over the boards to take a defensive end start is Schultz. Period. He can not defend. at all.
If you think Schultz is somehow a better defense man than JJ in his own end, they you have not been watching. Schultz doesn't give up more shots because he gets his starts in the Ozone where he is hidden.
It's easier to have better advanced stats when that is where you start. But come tell me why the puck is always going the other way when he's on the ice. Why has it done that for years.
My god they had to hide the guy like crazy during their cup runs. There are even stories about it all over the internet, how Sully was giving him 17 second shifts to get him off the damn ice. Nothing has changed there.
May 20, 2020 at 10:52 a.m.
#23
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Quoting: wabit
I really have no interest in Bjugstad, but for that price I'd be okay with taking a chance on him if MN doesn't re-sign Chucky or get Haula as a UFA.


I think it would be an underrated pickup for Minnesota that could become a potential trade asset for them if he can stay healthy.
May 20, 2020 at 10:58 a.m.
#24
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Quoting: dgfresh78
I think it would be an underrated pickup for Minnesota that could become a potential trade asset for them if he can stay healthy.


For that price it could be worth the chance for MN. He would be worth his contract if he could stay healthy for a full season. He just can't stay healthy.
May 20, 2020 at 11:01 a.m.
#25
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Quoting: Sidstick87
Id also take about 30-40 UFA forwards before Id re-sign FallsDown43.


You mean to tell me you wouldn’t take him back on a 1-2 year deal when he makes Sid’s line more explosive?
 
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