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How the top 15 shake out

How the top 15 shake out

Draft Class: 2020
Created By: ChiHawk
Published: May 21, 2020 at 2:56 p.m.
ROUND 1TEAMORIGINALPLAYERDETAILS
1Logo of the Detroit Red Wings-
2Logo of the Ottawa Senators-Powerful center
3Logo of the Ottawa SenatorsLogo of the San Jose SharksElite LW, high IQ, great speed, and awesome confidence
4Logo of the Los Angeles Kings-Power play QB, top IQ, offensive powerhouse and physical which is a natural fit for the Kings
5Logo of the Anaheim Ducks-After Drysdale gets taken 1 spot earlier,Ducks draft the next best D player in Sanderson. A surprise he goes this early but the Ducks need a top prospect on D
6Logo of the New Jersey Devils-Strong face offs, high IQ and solid two way player despite his size...plays like he's 6" taller
7Logo of the Buffalo Sabres-Extremely skilled and very high IQ
8Logo of the Montreal Canadiens-Strong two way game and high intensity player
9Logo of the Chicago Blackhawks-Maybe the best shot in the draft. Strong forward and pure goal scorer. Will play next to Dach eventually on the 1st line as Toews and Kane start to age.
10Logo of the New Jersey DevilsLogo of the Arizona CoyotesMaybe the best two way center in the draft. Very strong center that has a great ability to find his team in traffic. Both a PK and PP guy
11Logo of the Minnesota Wild-Elite goal tender prospect
12Logo of the Vancouver Canucks-Great skater and 200 ft player. The draft this year is so deep with centers but in a normal year he would be a top 8 pick
13Logo of the Nashville Predators-Great skater with a hell of a shot
14Logo of the Florida Panthers-Florida needs defensive prospects and gets a hard nosed hockey player perfect for Coach Qs preferred D guys
15Logo of the Calgary Flames-Very strong player and tough to knock off the puck. Top scorer with 52 goals this past season. Needs to work on his skating but made improvements this past season and training at the NHL level should be a big help.
16Logo of the New York Rangers-
17Logo of the Winnipeg Jets-
18Logo of the Ottawa SenatorsLogo of the New York Islanders
19Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets-
20Logo of the Carolina HurricanesLogo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
21Logo of the New York RangersLogo of the Carolina Hurricanes
22Logo of the Dallas Stars-
23Logo of the Edmonton Oilers-
24Logo of the Vegas Golden Knights-
25Logo of the Minnesota WildLogo of the Pittsburgh Penguins
26Logo of the Philadelphia Flyers-
27Logo of the Washington Capitals-
28Logo of the San Jose SharksLogo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
29Logo of the Colorado Avalanche-
30Logo of the St. Louis Blues-
31Logo of the Anaheim DucksLogo of the Boston Bruins
May 21, 2020 at 4:32 p.m.
#1
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Definitely unconventional, but not completely unrealistic. The order on draft day always seems to have surprises for nearly everyone.
May 21, 2020 at 5:11 p.m.
#2
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raymond isn’t getting past buffalo
May 21, 2020 at 5:22 p.m.
#3
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Quoting: chloewoj
raymond isn’t getting past buffalo


I could see that also, but then who does MTL grab since I doubt they take another center; Holtz? Then Chicago takes Perfetti. It will be interesting to see how picks 3 through 15 shake out, but picks 3 through 10 are all studs with a few of them potentially playing next year in the NHL. Very deep top 10.
May 21, 2020 at 7:46 p.m.
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I like Sanderson at 5. I also think that he will cause a surprise and be a part of the top10, but maybe not as soon as 5.
We never know. Last year, Seider was ranked after some dman who finally got picked after him, and got picked at 6, while everyone tought taht he was gonna be around 15.
Also Raymond to MTL would be incredible.
ChiHawk and Kotkaniemi15 liked this.
May 21, 2020 at 7:55 p.m.
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Quoting: ChiHawk
I could see that also, but then who does MTL grab since I doubt they take another center; Holtz? Then Chicago takes Perfetti. It will be interesting to see how picks 3 through 15 shake out, but picks 3 through 10 are all studs with a few of them potentially playing next year in the NHL. Very deep top 10.


Montreal would definitely take Perfetti. He’s just what they need, which is a great playmaking and goal scoring winger.
May 21, 2020 at 7:57 p.m.
#6
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Quoting: Kotkaniemi15
Montreal would definitely take Perfetti. He’s just what they need, which is a great playmaking and goal scoring winger.


Why though would they do that and grab another center when they have plenty of center depth with prospects? Wouldn't they be better off with possibly the best shooter and pure goal scorer in Holtz as a winger? I don't think they have much in terms of wingers as far as prospects go.
May 21, 2020 at 8:00 p.m.
#7
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Quoting: ChiHawk
Why though would they do that and grab another center when they have plenty of center depth with prospects? Wouldn't they be better off with possibly the best shooter and pure goal scorer in Holtz as a winger? I don't think they have much in terms of wingers as far as prospects go.


Perfetti is a winger. If he were a centre we’d definitely go with Holtz. I’d prefer Perfetti because he has more dimensions to his game.
May 21, 2020 at 8:09 p.m.
#8
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Quoting: Kotkaniemi15
Perfetti is a winger. If he were a centre we’d definitely go with Holtz. I’d prefer Perfetti because he has more dimensions to his game.


He's mainly been a center although some are questioning his ability to be a center in the NHL due to his lack of speed and defense and therefore saying he could be a LW
May 21, 2020 at 9:47 p.m.
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The last thing the Ducks need is more LHD 0 chance they consider Sanderson let alone take him ovewr any of the top 10 forwards in this draft
May 21, 2020 at 10:21 p.m.
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Quoting: Salzy
The last thing the Ducks need is more LHD 0 chance they consider Sanderson let alone take him ovewr any of the top 10 forwards in this draft


Guhle is their best defensive prospect and sanderson is better. Ducks need a D prospect with 1st line potential. With Zegras, Steel, Comtois, Lundestrom, why would the Ducks grab another forward prospect?

https://puckprose.com/2020/04/28/anaheim-ducks-2020-nhl-draft-prospect-prototypes/
May 22, 2020 at 12:00 a.m.
#11
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Edited May 22, 2020 at 12:06 a.m.
Quoting: ChiHawk
Guhle is their best defensive prospect and sanderson is better. Ducks need a D prospect with 1st line potential. With Zegras, Steel, Comtois, Lundestrom, why would the Ducks grab another forward prospect?

https://puckprose.com/2020/04/28/anaheim-ducks-2020-nhl-draft-prospect-prototypes/


Guhle is not the best D prospect they have, Thurn and Mahura both project better, you listed 3 centres and a winger thats why they need more forward prospects, Lindholm is holding down the #1LHD for the next 8+ seasons anyways

And the article you linked doesn’t actually have concrete anything suggesting the Ducks have interest in Sanderson, his whole suggestion of that is essentially “The Ducks usually take Dmen”
May 22, 2020 at 1:24 a.m.
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Quoting: Salzy
Guhle is not the best D prospect they have, Thurn and Mahura both project better, you listed 3 centres and a winger thats why they need more forward prospects, Lindholm is holding down the #1LHD for the next 8+ seasons anyways

And the article you linked doesn’t actually have concrete anything suggesting the Ducks have interest in Sanderson, his whole suggestion of that is essentially “The Ducks usually take Dmen”


You could argue Mahura I agree but Thrun? No way. It's widely covered the Ducks need another puck moving Defensive player and their top 4 or 5 prospects are all forwards while defensively they are thinner.
May 22, 2020 at 1:45 a.m.
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Quoting: ChiHawk
You could argue Mahura I agree but Thrun? No way. It's widely covered the Ducks need another puck moving Defensive player and their top 4 or 5 prospects are all forwards while defensively they are thinner.


Did you watch any of thurns games this year? He’s looking like a steal already. That’s just flat out not true with the prospects thing Zegras-Comtois-Mahura-Thurn-Guhle, 3 of the top 5 are LHD on top of Djoos and Larsson and Lindholm. Fowler is the oldest at 28.

I know the state of my favourite team. They do not need LD at all, it’s the position they need the least. They need top end forwards because outside of Comtois and Zegras they don’t have any that project as a potential top line player
May 22, 2020 at 2:32 a.m.
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Quoting: Salzy
Did you watch any of thurns games this year? He’s looking like a steal already. That’s just flat out not true with the prospects thing Zegras-Comtois-Mahura-Thurn-Guhle, 3 of the top 5 are LHD on top of Djoos and Larsson and Lindholm. Fowler is the oldest at 28.

I know the state of my favourite team. They do not need LD at all, it’s the position they need the least. They need top end forwards because outside of Comtois and Zegras they don’t have any that project as a potential top line player


Camtois, Zegras, Steele and Lundestrom are all ranked as the top 4 prospects by the NHL channel for the Ducks. Ghule is ranked 5th.

Ducks are lacking a top RHD and a bonafide future first line LHD and either one needs to be a PP QB. Remember, a D guy drafted this year won't be a big impact for 2 years in which Lindolm is turning 29. Fowler will be going on 31 and some would argue (I don't agree) that neither of those two are bonafide #1 guys on a good defensive team.

Djoos, Larsson are solid 3rd liners to fill in, but Ghule, Mahura don't project to be much more. Thurn had a good year at Harvard but compared to a top guy like Ian Mitchell in the NCAA he isn't a top D prospect and not better then Ghule or Mahura at this point. Regardless, none of those guys are future 1st liners and may have 2nd line upside but are more then likely 3rd liners. Ducks need a future lock for 1st line, they don't have that today and while RHD would be preferred (obviously if Drysdale is on the board they take him), Sanderson is projected to be a 1st liner as well.

At the end of the day, drafts can go all kinds of directions and there's always a surprise or two. Ducks could take a winger like Raymond as well...who knows what scouts are thinking for each team.
May 22, 2020 at 9:42 a.m.
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Quoting: ChiHawk
Camtois, Zegras, Steele and Lundestrom are all ranked as the top 4 prospects by the NHL channel for the Ducks. Ghule is ranked 5th.

Ducks are lacking a top RHD and a bonafide future first line LHD and either one needs to be a PP QB. Remember, a D guy drafted this year won't be a big impact for 2 years in which Lindolm is turning 29. Fowler will be going on 31 and some would argue (I don't agree) that neither of those two are bonafide #1 guys on a good defensive team.

Djoos, Larsson are solid 3rd liners to fill in, but Ghule, Mahura don't project to be much more. Thurn had a good year at Harvard but compared to a top guy like Ian Mitchell in the NCAA he isn't a top D prospect and not better then Ghule or Mahura at this point. Regardless, none of those guys are future 1st liners and may have 2nd line upside but are more then likely 3rd liners. Ducks need a future lock for 1st line, they don't have that today and while RHD would be preferred (obviously if Drysdale is on the board they take him), Sanderson is projected to be a 1st liner as well.

At the end of the day, drafts can go all kinds of directions and there's always a surprise or two. Ducks could take a winger like Raymond as well...who knows what scouts are thinking for each team.


Steel isn’t even a prospect so whatever list you’re referring to is outdated. I’m well aware of my favourite teams prospects and needs. LD is not one of them even remotely. Thurn, Guhle, Mahura all have top 4 potential. It would be beyond idiotic to add to that with so many other weaknesses in a stacked draft of forward talent.

Lindholm will be 28 and still in his prime, and by then Guhle/Mahura should be ready to step up. The Ducks are one of the most offensively starved teams in the league they have no true goal scorers in the pipeline and Rakell and Henrique aren’t getting younger. They have the future at LHD already they don’t need it.

You can’t look at one list (especially an outdated one) and rely on it. You can’t look at an article that literally says “They draft Dmen they’ll take one this time” do your research look at team needs, and you would see that the last thing the Ducks need is a LHD, especially with so many amazing forwards to choose from
May 22, 2020 at 1:45 p.m.
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Quoting: Salzy
Steel isn’t even a prospect so whatever list you’re referring to is outdated. I’m well aware of my favourite teams prospects and needs. LD is not one of them even remotely. Thurn, Guhle, Mahura all have top 4 potential. It would be beyond idiotic to add to that with so many other weaknesses in a stacked draft of forward talent.

Lindholm will be 28 and still in his prime, and by then Guhle/Mahura should be ready to step up. The Ducks are one of the most offensively starved teams in the league they have no true goal scorers in the pipeline and Rakell and Henrique aren’t getting younger. They have the future at LHD already they don’t need it.

You can’t look at one list (especially an outdated one) and rely on it. You can’t look at an article that literally says “They draft Dmen they’ll take one this time” do your research look at team needs, and you would see that the last thing the Ducks need is a LHD, especially with so many amazing forwards to choose from


I didn't look at one list, I looked at 3 and linked one and mentioned another (NHL Network).

Thurn, Guhle, Mahuara may have a top 4 ceiling; Thurn does not after one decent season in the NCAA that was impressive ONLY for a guy that nobody thought about. Realistically, Ghule and Mahuara will battle out for 3rd line under Lindholm and Fowler. Ducks need a bonafide #1/top line defensive guy that can run the PP and 100% agree that should be a RHD as Manson is not a 1st liner. That is the Ducks biggest need is a #1 RHD and a PP QB on defense. All the articles have noted this and have further debated if Lindholm and Fowler should be a #1LHD; like I said earlier I think Lindholm is but the discussions by the analysts debate that. Manson as i'm sure you know is not.

Steel is on his ELC so some view that as a prospect; the articles are all written in the last 9 months. Comtois, Lundestrom and Zegras are all good prospects up front. Everyone of these guys ranks higher then Mahuara, Ghlue and of course Thurn. Ducks have issues for sure, but they have a pretty darn good prospect pool led by those 3 names up front.

If Drsydale is available when the Ducks draft, without question they should draft him. I was simply saying if the Kings take him, it's possible the Ducks panic and grab Sanderson as the Ducks need a PP QB on the back end of the ice. The Ducks don't have a top line prospect on D, they do on offense that's all I was saying.

Anything can happen regardless of who your favorite team. Just like non Chicago fans keep saying the Hawks draft Askarov at the #9 spot and while most Hawks fans know that won't happen, as a fan anyone would be foolish to say with 100% certainty something won't happen...after all, we aren't in the scouting department.
May 24, 2020 at 12:12 a.m.
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Quoting: Suzuki_Cup
I like Sanderson at 5. I also think that he will cause a surprise and be a part of the top10, but maybe not as soon as 5.
We never know. Last year, Seider was ranked after some dman who finally got picked after him, and got picked at 6, while everyone tought taht he was gonna be around 15.
Also Raymond to MTL would be incredible.


I wouldn't take Sanderson above 12-13, but that's simple because I have a rule to never draft DMen in the top 20. Just playing the statistics. Of course if it gets to Calgary or New Yorks pick and he's still on the board you have to take him. It's good to see him getting some attention, but he is starting to become over rated.
May 24, 2020 at 1:07 a.m.
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Quoting: firezfurx
I wouldn't take Sanderson above 12-13, but that's simple because I have a rule to never draft DMen in the top 20. Just playing the statistics. Of course if it gets to Calgary or New Yorks pick and he's still on the board you have to take him. It's good to see him getting some attention, but he is starting to become over rated.


Never take a D guy in the top 20? I get not in the top or MAYBE top 10 but top 20?
May 24, 2020 at 1:14 a.m.
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Quoting: ChiHawk
Never take a D guy in the top 20? I get not in the top or MAYBE top 10 but top 20?


yessir. In general in recent years 1-5 have been solid but 6-20? Not so much. Of course if someone has fallen 4-5 spots in the top 20 take him but for the most part I'd avoid taking defensemen.
May 24, 2020 at 1:25 a.m.
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Edited May 24, 2020 at 1:37 a.m.
Quoting: firezfurx
yessir. In general in recent years 1-5 have been solid but 6-20? Not so much. Of course if someone has fallen 4-5 spots in the top 20 take him but for the most part I'd avoid taking defensemen.


"In recent years" meaning how recent?

I'm pretty sure, as an example, the following teams would disagree in recent years... Heiskanen (2017 - 3), Makar (2017 - 3), Fabrro (2016 - 17), Hanifan (2015 - 5), Werenski (2015 - 8), Chabot (2015 - 18), Ekblad (2014 - 1), Sanheim (2014 - 17), Seth Jones (2013 - 4), Nurse (2013 - 7), Morrissey (2013 - 13), Pulock (2013 - 15), Ryan Murray (2012 - 2), Rielly (2012 - 4), Lindhom (2012 - 6), Dumba (2012 - 7)

I focused on recent years going back only 8 years, and didn't include players from the 2018 or 2019 drafts as it is too early to tell and would argue still too early to tell on 2017 besides the top 2 guys. Going back further then 2012 is even more telling. The hit rate is pretty darn good, over 50% in the top 20.
May 24, 2020 at 1:58 a.m.
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Quoting: ChiHawk
"In recent years" meaning how recent?

I'm pretty sure, as an example, the following teams would disagree in recent years... Heiskanen (2017 - 3), Makar (2017 - 3), Fabrro (2016 - 17), Hanifan (2015 - 5), Werenski (2015 - 8), Chabot (2015 - 18), Ekblad (2014 - 1), Sanheim (2014 - 17), Seth Jones (2013 - 4), Nurse (2013 - 7), Morrissey (2013 - 13), Pulock (2013 - 15), Ryan Murray (2012 - 2), Rielly (2012 - 4), Lindhom (2012 - 6), Dumba (2012 - 7)

I focused on recent years going back only 8 years, and didn't include players from the 2018 or 2019 drafts as it is too early to tell and would argue still too early to tell on 2017 besides the top 2 guys.


Here are defensemen drafted top-5 from 2012-2018:

Ryan Murray (T4)
Griffin Reinhart
Morgan Rielly (T4) (E)
Aaron Ekblad (T4) (E)
Seth Jones (T4) (E)
Noah Hanifin (T4)
Olli Juleovi
Miro Heiskanen (T4) (E)
Cale Makar (T4) (E)
Rasmus Dahlin (T4) (E)

Chance of top-4: 8/10: 80%
Chance of elite: 6/10: 60%

Pretty good right? You have quite a good chance of getting a good player.

Now let's look at players drafted 5-20 from 2012-2016 (2017/2018 too soon to judge for players drafted later on):

Hampus Lindholm (T4) (TP) (E)
Matt Dumba (T4) (TP)
Jacob Trouba (T4) (TP)
Slater Koekkeokk
Derrick Pouliot
Cody Ceci
Darnell Nurse (T4) (TP)
Rasmus Ristolainen (T4)
Sam Morin
Josh Morrsiey (T4) (TP) (E)
Ryan Pulock (T4) (TP)
Nikita Zadorov
Mirco Mueller
Haydn Fleury
Julius Honka
Travis Sanheim (T4)
Ivan Provorov (T4) (TP)
Zach Werenski (T4) (TP) (E)
Jakub Zboril
Thomas Chabot (T4) (TP) (E)
Mikhail Sergachev (T4) (TP)
Jake Bean
Jake Chychrun (T4)
Dante Fabbro
Logan Stanley

Chance of Top-4: 13/25: 52%. So it's a flip of a coin if the player is even above replacement level
Chance of Top Pairing: 10/25: 40%
Chance of Elite: 4/25: 16%

Considering a 5-20 pick can easily get you a top pairing defensemen (Muzzin, Hamilton), and there's only a 40% chance that player becomes that good, I'd say you're better off taking a forward which has considerably better chances of becoming top pairing.
May 24, 2020 at 2:58 a.m.
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Edited May 24, 2020 at 12:15 p.m.
Quoting: firezfurx
Here are defensemen drafted top-5 from 2012-2018:

Ryan Murray (T4)
Griffin Reinhart
Morgan Rielly (T4) (E)
Aaron Ekblad (T4) (E)
Seth Jones (T4) (E)
Noah Hanifin (T4)
Olli Juleovi
Miro Heiskanen (T4) (E)
Cale Makar (T4) (E)
Rasmus Dahlin (T4) (E)

Chance of top-4: 8/10: 80%
Chance of elite: 6/10: 60%

Pretty good right? You have quite a good chance of getting a good player.

Now let's look at players drafted 5-20 from 2012-2016 (2017/2018 too soon to judge for players drafted later on):

Hampus Lindholm (T4) (TP) (E)
Matt Dumba (T4) (TP)
Jacob Trouba (T4) (TP)
Slater Koekkeokk
Derrick Pouliot
Cody Ceci
Darnell Nurse (T4) (TP)
Rasmus Ristolainen (T4)
Sam Morin
Josh Morrsiey (T4) (TP) (E)
Ryan Pulock (T4) (TP)
Nikita Zadorov
Mirco Mueller
Haydn Fleury
Julius Honka
Travis Sanheim (T4)
Ivan Provorov (T4) (TP)
Zach Werenski (T4) (TP) (E)
Jakub Zboril
Thomas Chabot (T4) (TP) (E)
Mikhail Sergachev (T4) (TP)
Jake Bean
Jake Chychrun (T4)
Dante Fabbro
Logan Stanley

Chance of Top-4: 13/25: 52%. So it's a flip of a coin if the player is even above replacement level
Chance of Top Pairing: 10/25: 40%
Chance of Elite: 4/25: 16%

Considering a 5-20 pick can easily get you a top pairing defensemen (Muzzin, Hamilton), and there's only a 40% chance that player becomes that good, I'd say you're better off taking a forward which has considerably better chances of becoming top pairing.


Some of those guys just got drafted 4 years ago, so I'd say a few of them can still be good; Bean, Fleury, Fabbro, Zadorov, and even Koekko aren't done showing what they have. It's really hard to compare when you have 9 defensive guys and 12 forwards. A 3rd pairing is surely worth more then a 4th liner I think you'd agree and also agree, D guys can take 5 years to show what they are worth. Some of the best defenders don't peak until they are 30 years old, usually forwards will peak a couple years earlier then a defender as they usually get to the NHL 2 to 3 years earlier.

That all said, of course a forward is safer bet over a D guy, but if there is a highly touted D guy on the board; say a Drysdale at 5 or Sanderson at 12 in this year's draft, you might be hard pressed to not take them. To your point, even more difficult are goalies who are notoriously take at least 3 years and as much as 6 years to develop so extremely hard picking a goalie in the top 20. I would never do it personally even if it's Askarov.
 
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