Quoting: ChiHawk
"In recent years" meaning how recent?
I'm pretty sure, as an example, the following teams would disagree in recent years... Heiskanen (2017 - 3), Makar (2017 - 3), Fabrro (2016 - 17), Hanifan (2015 - 5), Werenski (2015 - 8), Chabot (2015 - 18), Ekblad (2014 - 1), Sanheim (2014 - 17), Seth Jones (2013 - 4), Nurse (2013 - 7), Morrissey (2013 - 13), Pulock (2013 - 15), Ryan Murray (2012 - 2), Rielly (2012 - 4), Lindhom (2012 - 6), Dumba (2012 - 7)
I focused on recent years going back only 8 years, and didn't include players from the 2018 or 2019 drafts as it is too early to tell and would argue still too early to tell on 2017 besides the top 2 guys.
Here are defensemen drafted top-5 from 2012-2018:
Ryan Murray (T4)
Griffin Reinhart
Morgan Rielly (T4) (E)
Aaron Ekblad (T4) (E)
Seth Jones (T4) (E)
Noah Hanifin (T4)
Olli Juleovi
Miro Heiskanen (T4) (E)
Cale Makar (T4) (E)
Rasmus Dahlin (T4) (E)
Chance of top-4: 8/10: 80%
Chance of elite: 6/10: 60%
Pretty good right? You have quite a good chance of getting a good player.
Now let's look at players drafted 5-20 from 2012-2016 (2017/2018 too soon to judge for players drafted later on):
Hampus Lindholm (T4) (TP) (E)
Matt Dumba (T4) (TP)
Jacob Trouba (T4) (TP)
Slater Koekkeokk
Derrick Pouliot
Cody Ceci
Darnell Nurse (T4) (TP)
Rasmus Ristolainen (T4)
Sam Morin
Josh Morrsiey (T4) (TP) (E)
Ryan Pulock (T4) (TP)
Nikita Zadorov
Mirco Mueller
Haydn Fleury
Julius Honka
Travis Sanheim (T4)
Ivan Provorov (T4) (TP)
Zach Werenski (T4) (TP) (E)
Jakub Zboril
Thomas Chabot (T4) (TP) (E)
Mikhail Sergachev (T4) (TP)
Jake Bean
Jake Chychrun (T4)
Dante Fabbro
Logan Stanley
Chance of Top-4: 13/25: 52%. So it's a flip of a coin if the player is even above replacement level
Chance of Top Pairing: 10/25: 40%
Chance of Elite: 4/25: 16%
Considering a 5-20 pick can easily get you a top pairing defensemen (Muzzin, Hamilton), and there's only a 40% chance that player becomes that good, I'd say you're better off taking a forward which has considerably better chances of becoming top pairing.