Ethan Bears advanced numbers are pretty decent actually

Bear is decent analytically

All really young with not a ton of experience. Give it a couple of years.

Yea for sure he's better then the others in that category, his xGa relative to his teamates is pretty weak, and although he has good enough shot suppression he gets caught off guard on odd-man rushes and isn't good at defusing high-danger situations, hence his abyssmal xGA TM REL.

I wouldn't say bear is overated

I’d still take Hughes over anyone on this list

Yea. Makar was in the 100th percentile for defensemen. He is literally the best defensemen in the world according to advanced stats at age 21. Hughes and Fox are up there too, but not quite as good as Makar.

Jack Hughes

What are your games play requirements? There’s some other rookies who can be listed here who don’t have here.

No the greater Hughes lol. Jack Hughes sucks. Kappo Kakko is even worse. They have horrendous defensive stats. Dach is actually pretty good.

Obviouslly I didn't include Makar and co. because they are so much better then the players listed here. I just chose some random rookies who aren't great but also are considered not bad.

Jack Hughes just turned 19 a few weeks ago. He wasn’t good this season, but he has the potential to be an elite 1C

For sure. BUT, his defense is atrocious. Dach is pretty good among forwards (73rd percentile) for 2-way game, while Hughes is in the 10th percentile. See what I mean? Hughes also is in the 98th percentile for Ozone starts which makes it even more pathetic.

Yeah I’m not saying he was good this season, but I think he will end up being the best player out of all the ones on this list.

I’m surprised Dobson isn’t on this list. He only played 34 games, but he was forced to play on his off side with one of the worst defenseman in the league (boychuk). His advanced metrics were solid.

What stats are you going on exactly? Nylander has poor analytics and Bear and Gurianov (especially the latter) are very good.
Dach was pretty meh at best (but roughly expected considering his age).

One of my issues with advanced stats is they don't take into account schemes for forchecking or neutral zone play. Hughes may start in the offensive zone more than 98% of players, but unless the Devils are able to sustain offensive pressure, they will fall back into a neutral zone trap and won't be aggressive on the forcheck.

What 10th percentile is Hughes in for his "two-way game"?

Check the link in the desc.

For the most part I like to use stats relative to teamates.

xGa REL TM/60

I would use a regression model. Much better.

How does that measure defensive ability? All that data shows is the expected goals allowed relative to his teammates standardized for ice time? Most advanced analytics are descriptive stats; they are just a summary of what happened, not why or how.