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Realistic Scenario - None of the NTCs waive

Created by: Richard88
Team: 2020-21 Tampa Bay Lightning
Initial Creation Date: May 26, 2020
Published: May 26, 2020
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Let's be honest here, none of the NTC guys are going to want to leave a winning team; sunshine; and tax free state to go play for Buffalo or Calgary. They signed those NTC's for a reason, and there's no reason for them to waive their NTC's to uproot their families in the middle of a trainwreck of a year.

As such, this AGM is based on a realistic scenario of what would happen if none of those NTC forwards waive.

Note that the Killorn trade involves a 3rd team retaining, which is reflective of the fact that Killorn may list the 16 teams with most capspace on his no-trade list; in which case finding a team to retain will be important to find a team that can take on his caphit without sending any cap back.

The team put together here is still very strong at forward, however, the D group (particularly RHD) takes a big hit. Perhaps there could be a way to acquire a good and cheap ELC RHD using a combination of picks and prospects (eg. Raddysh for Timmins, or similar RHD?).
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$900,000
2$900,000
2$900,000
3$4,500,000
2$900,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$700,000
1$1,000,000
2$1,000,000
Trades
1.
TBL
  1. Smith, Ty
  2. 2020 1st round pick (VAN)
Additional Details:
17th overall
NJD
  1. Sergachev, Mikhail [RFA Rights]
  2. 2021 2nd round pick (TBL)
2.
TBL
  1. 2021 1st round pick (DAL)
  2. 2021 3rd round pick (DAL)
DAL
  1. Killorn, Alex
  2. 2020 2nd round pick (TBL)
Additional Details:
Traded to Dallas via Detroit. Detroit retains $1-2m to make Killorn worth a late 1st and 3rd.

To Dallas: Killorn ($1-2m retained)

To Detroit: 2020 TBL 2nd + $1-2m retention

To Tampa: DAL 1st + 3rd
3.
TBL
  1. 2020 4th round pick (MIN)
MIN
  1. Paquette, Cédric
Additional Details:
Minnesota get a strong bottom 6 C.
4.
TBL
  1. 2020 2nd round pick (CGY)
  2. 2021 2nd round pick (CGY)
CGY
  1. Cernak, Erik [RFA Rights]
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2020
Logo of the VAN
Logo of the CGY
Logo of the TBL
Logo of the PHI
Logo of the TBL
Logo of the DET
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the TBL
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the TBL
2021
Logo of the TBL
Logo of the DAL
Logo of the CGY
Logo of the TBL
Logo of the DAL
Logo of the TBL
Logo of the TBL
Logo of the TBL
Logo of the TBL
Logo of the NSH
Logo of the NJD
2022
Logo of the TBL
Logo of the TBL
Logo of the TBL
Logo of the TBL
Logo of the TBL
Logo of the TBL
Logo of the TBL
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
22$81,500,000$81,380,923$0$900,000$119,077
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$5,000,000$5,000,000
RW, C, LW
NTC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$8,500,000$8,500,000
LW, C
NMC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$9,500,000$9,500,000
RW
NMC
UFA - 7
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$5,300,000$5,300,000
LW, RW
NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$4,500,000$4,500,000
C, LW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$6,750,000$6,750,000
C, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$5,166,666$5,166,666
C, LW, RW
NTC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$1,800,000$1,800,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$759,258$759,258
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$900,000$900,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$925,000$925,000
C, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$833,333$833,333
RW
RFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$7,875,000$7,875,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$500,000$500K)
RD
RFA - 1
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$9,500,000$9,500,000
G
UFA - 8
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$6,750,000$6,750,000
LD
NTC
UFA - 6
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$1,000,000$1,000,000
LD/RD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$1,300,000$1,300,000
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$400,000$400K)
LD/RD
RFA - 3
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$1,000,000$1,000,000
RD
UFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$900,000$900,000
LW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
$700,000$700,000
RD
UFA - 1

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May 26, 2020 at 12:58 p.m.
#1
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Detroit has no reason to retain $1m to $2m on Killorn to help Dallas out for a 2nd rd pick.
May 26, 2020 at 1:10 p.m.
#2
EclipzeEDM
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Quoting: DiehardRedWingsFan58
Detroit has no reason to retain $1m to $2m on Killorn to help Dallas out for a 2nd rd pick.


Why wouldn’t they though? They have like 42M in cap going into next season. A 2nd round pick for 3 years of 2M in salary retention? It’s not like they can’t afford to cap wise or financially.
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May 26, 2020 at 1:16 p.m.
#3
hey look a squirrel
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I think your too low on money to Cirelli there.
May 26, 2020 at 2:29 p.m.
#4
What in tarnation
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Wouldn't pay that much for Killer.

Also man if you combined that TB trade with the Coleman trade, it would mean that TB traded Sergachev, 2019 1st round pick (Foote) and 2021 2nd round pick for Coleman and Smith.
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May 26, 2020 at 2:59 p.m.
#5
jimmyjets
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I like your creativity here but no team is going to retain salary for 3 years, especially for a 2nd round pick. If you're not talking firsts no owner is going to say sure I'll pay an extra $6 Million out of my pocket for a 2nd round pick. That's a real $6 million for a chance at a roster player at a time when the financial outlook for the league looks very bleak.

Regardless, Tampa is having to move Killorn, Cernak and one of Sergachev/Cirelli. I think you're low on Cirelli so if you moved him you may be able to keep both Sergachev and Cernak, which to me would be the better move.

Will be interesting to see what happens.
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May 26, 2020 at 3:01 p.m.
#6
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John 3 16
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Quoting: Trickster
I think your too low on money to Cirelli there.


I think so too, but short of trading him that's probably as high as Tampa can go unless they manage to trade one of the NTC's. There aren't really any other options remaining to trim, given that the RHD and bottom 6 forwards are down to being as cheap as you can get them to be.
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May 26, 2020 at 3:06 p.m.
#7
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John 3 16
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Quoting: jimmyjets
I like your creativity here but no team is going to retain salary for 3 years, especially for a 2nd round pick. If you're not talking firsts no owner is going to say sure I'll pay an extra $6 Million out of my pocket for a 2nd round pick. That's a real $6 million for a chance at a roster player at a time when the financial outlook for the league looks very bleak.

Regardless, Tampa is having to move Killorn, Cernak and one of Sergachev/Cirelli. I think you're low on Cirelli so if you moved him you may be able to keep both Sergachev and Cernak, which to me would be the better move.

Will be interesting to see what happens.


You're probably right. The retention could simply be $1m though ($3m over 3 years) which would make it more worthwhile for Detroit. They need to reach the capfloor somehow, so might as well do it by acquiring good assets for it. Regardless, I think Tampa has to find a way to trade Killorn.

I'm probably low on Cirelli, but this could potentially work for them, barely. Whatever happens it seems to me that their entire offseason will be predicated upon them being able to convince one of Johnson/Gourde/Palat to waive. If they do that then they're in a MUCH better position.
May 26, 2020 at 4:11 p.m.
#8
hey look a squirrel
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Quoting: Richard88
I think so too, but short of trading him that's probably as high as Tampa can go unless they manage to trade one of the NTC's. There aren't really any other options remaining to trim, given that the RHD and bottom 6 forwards are down to being as cheap as you can get them to be.


Agree which is why I gave been seen saying offer sheet Cirelli for 6.3 million AAV
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May 30, 2020 at 4:43 a.m.
#9
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Tampa quickly declines both the Sergachev and Killorn trades. Tampa doesn't want a mid 1st and a LD prospect in exchange for an already good and proven dman and a 2nd. Neither of those pieces help Tampa anytime soon. If Cernak does get moved then Serg slides back to the right side. If Cernak is traded I could also easily see him part of a deal to get an NHL ready RD prospect in return.

Tampa doesn't need any help moving Killorn, as he has plenty of value alone. On the low end he's worth a 2nd+3rd, and if several teams start bidding, he could get a late 1st type return. Cirelli's max is 4.5, many feel he'll sign closer to 4 based on previous negotiations and cap hit % with other comparable Tampa rfa's. Paquette and Cernak trades, if Cernak does get moved, seem pretty solid. I disagree completely that Tampa won't get either some cap relief in terms of a cbo or something else, nor do I think they can't convince a player to waive. However, even if that was the case, Tampa would still not accept either the Serg or Killorn trades here.
May 30, 2020 at 4:53 a.m.
#10
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I should say re: Ty Smith in that Serg trade, while he could step in to be the 3LD next year, Tampa would have little on the right side. It just doesn't make sense for Tampa, and the mid 1st doesn't do much for Tampa either.
May 30, 2020 at 11:55 a.m.
#11
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John 3 16
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Quoting: JTBF81
I should say re: Ty Smith in that Serg trade, while he could step in to be the 3LD next year, Tampa would have little on the right side. It just doesn't make sense for Tampa, and the mid 1st doesn't do much for Tampa either.


I agree with your assertions. I think this roster illustrates that Tampa may not have much of a choice in how they deal with certain situations this. summer though. In an ideal world for them they would keep their RFA's or trade them for great value in return, but given the circumstances they may struggle to do that.
May 31, 2020 at 4:50 p.m.
#12
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Quoting: Richard88
I agree with your assertions. I think this roster illustrates that Tampa may not have much of a choice in how they deal with certain situations this. summer though. In an ideal world for them they would keep their RFA's or trade them for great value in return, but given the circumstances they may struggle to do that.


If Tampa had to trade Sergachev then at the very least they'd be getting a higher end RD prospect back in return, as then they'd be more set on the right side with Cernak, Foote and new prospect. They'd also still possibly have Rutta still and Hedman-McD on the left. No chance they lose both Serg and Cernak anyway and then not bring back significant RD help in either trade. Brisebois won't be running the team into the ground like that.
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