Forums/Armchair-GM

What does TBay do if the cap goes down

Created by: NoDeke
Initial Creation Date: May 27, 2020
Published: May 27 at 10:21 pm
Team: 2020-21 Tampa Bay Lightning
Team Explanation
Ah man if cap drops anywhere near 5 mill this will suck for TB. Cirelli offer sheet ain’t crazy and may as well trade him before that happens. Do they really want to trade every 30 year old off the team with a 5 mill contract?
Low ballin these trades as these contracts weigh so much for so long and the return is something that can work for the time being while raddish and Foote get their feet wet. A lot of cap to eat for a long time in a time where the cap goes down. What will the value end up being
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
Sergachev, Mikhail2$3,150,000
Verhaeghe, Carter2$900,000
Cernak, Erik4$2,100,000
Cirelli, Anthony2$5,500,000
Joseph, Mathieu2$875,000
Smith, Gemel1$725,000
Stephens, Mitchell1$888,000
Roslovic, Jack3$1,250,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
Shattenkirk, Kevin1$1,000,000
Trades
TBL
  1. Roslovic, Jack [RFA Rights]
  2. 2022 3rd round pick (WPG)
WPG
  1. Johnson, Tyler
  2. 2020 4th round pick (TBL)
TBL
  1. Wood, Miles
Additional Details:
2022 Conditional pick(s) performance based
NJD
  1. Gourde, Yanni
Additional Details:
2022 Conditional pick(s) performance based
TBL
  1. 2021 2nd round pick (CGY)
CGY
  1. Killorn, Alex
TBL
  1. McCabe, Jake
  2. 2021 4th round pick (BUF)
BUF
  1. McDonagh, Ryan
Buyouts
  • Vincent Lecavalier: $0
DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
2020
TBL
TBL
PHI
DET
TBL
OTT
TBL
2021
TBL
TBL
CGY
TBL
TBL
BUF
TBL
TBL
TBL
NSH
NJD
2022
TBL
TBL
TBL
WPG
TBL
TBL
TBL
TBL
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES BONUSESCAP SPACE
22$76,500,000$76,988,000$0$500,000-$488,000
Left WingCenterRight Wing
TBL
Goodrow, Barclay
$925,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
TBL
Stamkos, Steven
$8,500,000
C, LW
NMC
UFA - 4
TBL
Kucherov, Nikita
$9,500,000
RW
NMC
UFA - 7
TBL
Coleman, Blake
$1,800,000
C, LW, RW
UFA - 1
TBL
Cirelli, Anthony
$5,500,000
C
RFA
TBL
Point, Brayden
$6,750,000
C, RW
RFA - 2
NJD
Wood, Miles
$2,750,000
LW
RFA - 2
TBL
Paquette, Cédric
$1,650,000
C, LW
UFA - 1
TBL
Palat, Ondrej
$5,300,000
RW, LW
NTC
UFA - 2
TBL
Verhaeghe, Carter
$900,000
C, LW
RFA
Roslovic, Jack
$1,250,000
RW, C
RFA
TBL
Stephens, Mitchell
$888,000
C
RFA
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
TBL
Hedman, Victor
$7,875,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 5
TBL
Sergachev, Mikhail
$3,150,000
LD
RFA
TBL
Vasilevskiy, Andrei
$9,500,000
G
UFA - 8
TBL
Coburn, Braydon
$1,700,000
LD
NTC
UFA - 1
TBL
Cernak, Erik
$2,100,000
RD
RFA
TBL
McElhinney, Curtis
$1,300,000
G
UFA - 1
BUF
McCabe, Jake
$2,850,000
LD
UFA - 1
TBL
Shattenkirk, Kevin
$1,000,000
RD
UFA
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
TBL
Joseph, Mathieu
$875,000
LW, RW
RFA
TBL
Foote, Cal
$925,000
RD
RFA - 1

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May 27 at 10:26
#1
Romanov Our Savior
Joined: Feb 2019
Posts: 2,831
Likes: 1,435
It's more complicated than that since McDonagh, Gourde and Johnson all have NTCs and are all unlikely to leave Florida
masterjuddi liked this.
May 27 at 10:33
#2
Joined: Jun 2019
Posts: 6,065
Likes: 2,375
There are far to many teams that have issues with the cap going down. Even more if trades happen to help those teams in the most trouble. I doubt there is a cqp drop without a CBO
May 27 at 10:36
#3
Avs 2020s Dynasty
Joined: Aug 2017
Posts: 3,747
Likes: 1,710
they cry
May 27 at 10:39
#4
Joined: Jun 2019
Posts: 2,014
Likes: 695
Why do the jets do that?
Riley816 liked this.
May 27 at 10:59
#5
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 1,713
Likes: 569
Quoting: Cheddamonkey37
Why do the jets do that?


Why do the Sabres do that???
dzmets and gretzkyghosts liked this.
May 27 at 11:00
#6
Joined: May 2016
Posts: 4,287
Likes: 1,122
I don't think the cap will go down. The cap is an arbitrary number that is actually higher than the amount of money earned by the league for that season (the players get 50% of it). The players all lose the same % of their pay to cover that difference in the form of escrow. So the cap on paper can stay the same the players will just earn less money across the board. Lowering the cap and forcing teams to do buyouts to get compliant will cost at least some of the owners more money than just keeping the cap where it's at.

This play-in round is more about money than fairness. Playoff games get far better viewership than a regular season games. So instead of the 180 (or so) NHL games left this year they do 12 round robin games and somewhere between 24-40 total play-in round games. Those 36-52 games should easily cover the league for their NBC commitment for the season. They will still lose the gate sales (because no fans) and some local broadcast money, but will help bring the yearly total up.

This is a year when everyone loses: the fans, the players, and the owners. Next year might be more of the same losing depending if fans can (or will) go to games or not.
NoDeke liked this.
May 27 at 11:11
#7
LongtimeLeafsufferer
Joined: Jul 2015
Posts: 31,673
Likes: 8,052
IMO the cap is going to be 86m. Salaries and everything related to them, Then the NHLPA and owners are going to have all players take 20% pay cut to show the reality of the revenues of the 2019/20 season, and a 70m cap. We can't show this on the CapFriendly format . And if you think that is absurd, in 2021/22, the cap will be at 90m and negotiations will be set at that level. Then all players will take a 33% pay cut to get the real 60m cap. Yea, revenues are really going to drop.

The above is something a wrote a few days ago. There is no reason to believe that if the cap goes down that salaries across the don't go down. The NHLPA majority of players are mid to low paying guys with contracts due or contracts due shortly. Those players...the majority aren't going to be forced to sign minimum contracts just because their is no cap space on all teams, and allow the "signed" players reap the rewards of cap expectations of the pre Covid era.

Now Tampa is going to difficulty signing all their UFAs not so much of the cap going down but because of the NTCs of the players mentioned above.
NoDeke liked this.
May 27 at 11:17
#8
GM CRIME DAWG
Joined: Mar 2019
Posts: 1,537
Likes: 508
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Doubt it will go down...
Players and owners will "plug their proverbial noses" for the short-term knowing that new monie$ are going to be hyper-injected soon via Expansion, new TV/Streaming deals and Gambling.
Oh yeah, one more thing, did I mention Gambling yet!!?!
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
May 27 at 11:29
#9
Chicago
Joined: Jun 2015
Posts: 4,232
Likes: 1,032
I can't see the cap dropping. Flat cap, sure. But to shave 5 million off the salary cap is essentially forcing skill and talent out of the league. Player salaries are increasing, a drop in the salary cap would be detrimental to the league, and I think both sides know this.
NoDeke liked this.
May 27 at 11:38
#10
Chicago
Joined: Jun 2015
Posts: 4,232
Likes: 1,032
Quoting: palhal
IMO the cap is going to be 86m. Salaries and everything related to them, Then the NHLPA and owners are going to have all players take 20% pay cut to show the reality of the revenues of the 2019/20 season, and a 70m cap. We can't show this on the CapFriendly format . And if you think that is absurd, in 2021/22, the cap will be at 90m and negotiations will be set at that level. Then all players will take a 33% pay cut to get the real 60m cap. Yea, revenues are really going to drop.

The above is something a wrote a few days ago. There is no reason to believe that if the cap goes down that salaries across the don't go down. The NHLPA majority of players are mid to low paying guys with contracts due or contracts due shortly. Those players...the majority aren't going to be forced to sign minimum contracts just because their is no cap space on all teams, and allow the "signed" players reap the rewards of cap expectations of the pre Covid era.

Now Tampa is going to difficulty signing all their UFAs not so much of the cap going down but because of the NTCs of the players mentioned above.


Revenues are going to return once the league returns in front of fans. Which makes perfect sense why the league doesn't want to start the 2020-2021 season until fans are allowed in. It's much too early to tell what will happen, but I don't think players would be willing to take the majority of the financial damage in this situation while the owners make the revenues they made pre-pandemic (Do you really think the demand will fall in big markets like Montreal, Toronto, Chicago, Vancouver, Denver, and New York?) People are dying for sports, and once fans are allowed back in (Again, we don't know what capacity), but once temperature-regulating cameras are in place, there will be significant buzz.
May 28 at 7:34
#11
Joined: Apr 2020
Posts: 672
Likes: 215
Quoting: Riley816
Why do the Sabres do that???


The Sabres won't do that. Sounds like they will be operating on an internal cap this year
May 28 at 7:39
#12
Joined: Apr 2020
Posts: 672
Likes: 215
Quoting: NickC1988
I can't see the cap dropping. Flat cap, sure. But to shave 5 million off the salary cap is essentially forcing skill and talent out of the league. Player salaries are increasing, a drop in the salary cap would be detrimental to the league, and I think both sides know this.


Where is the skill and talent going to go. Every sports/hockey league in the world is losing money and most are not as stable as the nhl
May 28 at 8:08
#13
LongtimeLeafsufferer
Joined: Jul 2015
Posts: 31,673
Likes: 8,052
Quoting: NickC1988
Revenues are going to return once the league returns in front of fans. Which makes perfect sense why the league doesn't want to start the 2020-2021 season until fans are allowed in. It's much too early to tell what will happen, but I don't think players would be willing to take the majority of the financial damage in this situation while the owners make the revenues they made pre-pandemic (Do you really think the demand will fall in big markets like Montreal, Toronto, Chicago, Vancouver, Denver, and New York?) People are dying for sports, and once fans are allowed back in (Again, we don't know what capacity), but once temperature-regulating cameras are in place, there will be significant buzz.


Sure fans are "dying" for to watch sports but the issue I mentioned is revenue. The NHL especially is a gate revenue driven. No way the stands are filled for a number distancing. Social distancing, I don't think arenas will be allowed to filled and people will just stay away.. Sure looks like a recession or worse is looming, people aren't going to spend discretionary dollars on high priced tickets and buy inflated sport merchandise. The businesses that bought tickets well those businesses may not exist anymore or they just have to cut on expenses.
So IMO revenues will be way down. And since the cap is based on revenues, the cap will drop too. I don't see there is path to keep the current revenues at all...maybe for years.
And since the majority of players are mid to low paid and will have contracts they are due to renewal this season or in the next few, they aren't going to fall on the "salary sword" just because some players have signed long term contracts will the pre Covid cap expectations.
The last thing players want is for teams to fold or suspend operations due to lack of revenues compared to expenses Those players are guaranteed their contracts but would be declared UFAs (Penquins were almost in this position years ago). The NHLPA membership wants more jobs, not to have less teams.
May 28 at 10:16
#14
Joined: Feb 2017
Posts: 1,652
Likes: 571
Quoting: Cheddamonkey37
Why do the jets do that?


Tampa's dreaming if they think they'll get that value back. I like the idea of the jets acquiring TJ, but they aren't giving up a 23 year old C who's finally showing what he can do.
If the bolts are gonna shed salary so they can sign their RFA's teams are gonna low ball them like crazy. I would give the bolts a 3rd rounder for TJ
May 28 at 10:22
#15
Joined: Feb 2017
Posts: 1,652
Likes: 571
Quoting: SevenLeg
It's more complicated than that since McDonagh, Gourde and Johnson all have NTCs and are all unlikely to leave Florida


Add Palat and Killorn to that list. Bolts will have about 8 mill to sign 9 guys next year. That includes Cirelli, Cernak and Sergachev. Most of the contracts can be replaced with league min or ELC's, but you'd think the RFA's i mentioned are gonna demand some big money. CIrelli has to start with a 4 on a short term and 6 on a long term; i have no idea what Cernak would cost, but he's an important piece and i don't think the bolts wanna give up a 6'7 shut down dman; Sergachev could and maybe should demand big money on long term.
Tampa, IMO, will need to get rid of 2 or 3 of TJ, Gourde, Palat and Kilorn.
SevenLeg liked this.
May 28 at 10:34
#16
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 9,460
Likes: 2,437
Want to drop some cap? I'd be in the market for Kucherov or Hedman or Point...

😁
NoDeke liked this.
May 30 at 10:41
#17
Thread Starter
WingusAmingus
Joined: Jan 2020
Posts: 190
Likes: 33
Thanks for the reply’s! Honestly agree with a lot of this.
1. In all reality they will keep the cap the same and just shave a percentage off of the player salary.
2. NHL has to give everyone a CBO because of the money losses so teams can save at least a little. It sucks for them because they are trying To teach teams a lesson about overpaying contracts. I’m on drugs hat doesn’t understand why people think the cap should always go up. We will be he nfl in no time, I would like it to stick around this amount maybe a tad bit more like 85 at max.
3. A lot of NTC to deal with. These guys are still 30. It’s not like they will be useless on another team. Probably better cause they can fully spread their wings. Tough contracts but they are real players with lots of experience. Hell Killorn is the spokesmen for his team. Jack for TJ is questionable. Love the way Jack is looking, I’ve been pulling for him for a while! Jets kinda proved they don’t need anything but continued growth from within. Rd Niku poink poolman LD morrissey henola maybe Stanley. Looks pretty good to me
May 30 at 10:44
#18
Thread Starter
WingusAmingus
Joined: Jan 2020
Posts: 190
Likes: 33
Quoting: CD282
Want to drop some cap? I'd be in the market for Kucherov or Hedman or Point...

😁


Point to the wings!!!!!! cool
 
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