Let's look back at the top 15 or so big time UFA deals from last summer. I wanna focus primarily on 27-28 y.o. and up on multi-year, high-dollar contracts. How many have paid off so far? How many are solid deals? How many have underperformed? How many have been disastrous thus far? I've included pending UFA's who extended w/ their current team before July 1st, like EK65 and Brock Nelson.

Home Runs:

1. Artemi Panarin

Solid Deal:

1. Anders Lee
2. Semyon Varlamov
3. Gustav Nyqvist
4. Kevin Hayes
5. Brock Nelson

Below Average:

1. Joe Pavelski
2. Matt Duchene
3. Tyler Myers
4. Mats Zuccarello
5. Anton Stralman

Disastrous:

1. Sergei Bobrofsky
2. Michael Ferland
3. Jake Gardiner
4. Jeff Skinner
5. Erik Karlsson

My conclusion: I must admit, there may have been some confirmation bias at work here. I generally don't like long term deals for older players, unless they're All Star caliber players who aren't injury prone. Out of the 16 players that I reviewed, only 6 have lived up to the level of expectations their contracts suggest. That's only a 37.5% success rate. Panarin is a superstar. He was expected to perform well for $11M+, but not many people saw him as an MVP candidate. Clearly, he's an exception.

Another thing that stands out is Lou's success at locking up his NYI core on fairly reasonable contracts. All 3 performed well. None of whom were spectacular, but all were solid players for the money, in my opinion.

Paying Bob $10M will have a lasting impact on how GM's value the position. Watch how much more reluctant teams will be in the future when writing these checks.

Overpaying vets w/ injury troubles also proved to be a costly mistake. Several of the "Disastrous" deals were signed by players who're often hurt. Crazy. I'd be willing to bet that this theory would hold up in past years, as well. It's clearly a long man's game (a speed game), now more than ever.

Bottom Line: Some of these guys may bounce back next season, but the downside far outweighs the upside for most UFA's. Why would any team, unless on the verge of contending for the Cup, gamble so much on a 28 y.o. veteran when results seem so definitive? Just wait and see how much Taylor Hall is paid this summer!

The expectations on a guy like Skinner were so unrealistic that you really need to wonder how Botterill still has a job. At least SJS and FLA were supposed to be legit contenders when the overpaid EK and Bob, right? Ouch!!! How often do teams get crushed on RFA big money contracts? My guess is that the failure rate is a fraction of what it is for vets.

I would also have to argue that any team that's not on the verge of contending should steer clear of Taylor Hall this summer. Someone will overpay him, despite his injuries and the fact that he's really only had a couple All Star caliber seasons in his career. He's also won 1 Playoff game in 10 years. ARI would be wise to let him walk at $9M+, in my opinion.

I honestly don’t know who would give Hall $9M+. Because the teams that are good enough that they think that Hall will put them over the top (or don’t care about the future) don’t have the cap space to sign him.

I really hope Karlsson finds his game again. Get rid of Burns somehow and boost EK's mentality by being the best dman on that team. Invest into TOP 6 winger and solid goaltender.

Agreed. The Sharks are def. a strong bounce-back candidate for next season.

Doesn't Burns have a No Movement Clause?
Edit: nope, apparently a guy signing an 8x8 has only a three team NTC