Quoting: OldNYIfan
@CD282 You and I don't always see eye-to-eye, but I respect your opinions and insight on your own team. What's your take on what you would offer for the 21st overall pick from Ottawa? Assume your own first is out of the equation.
First of all, the deal outlined above is not going to happen. Yamamoto alone is worth more than #21 at this point.
If the Oilers wanted to acquire #21 in addition to their own #20, they would probably be offering Puljujarvi straight up. I think Holland is targeting Toronto's #19 pick from Carolina actually, and Ottawa would be his second choice, with NYR as a fallback (as they own Carolina's #23). Of course, the play-in / lottery could change the seeding of these picks and thus their value, but as it stands today that's what I think Holland is aiming for.
Now, I know most posters here won't agree that Puljujarvi is worth a #19-23 pick, but the facts tell us otherwise.
Here's an article that will give you some idea what the odds are of your picks turning into good players:
https://www.coppernblue.com/platform/amp/2011/4/4/2082829/nhl-draft-pick-value-first-round
Even if this is a really deep draft (the jury is still out on that), the probability of the #19 pick becoming a top player is just under 30%.
So the question becomes: what are Puljujarvi's chances of becoming a top player? I'll look at his 19- and 21-year-old seasons to get some idea what his future could look like. I'm not using his 18-year-old season because there are so few comparables (Hughes and Kakko fit but that story isn't written yet), and I'm ignoring his 20-year-old season because he played with the nagging hip issue all year which finally ended his season prematurely.
As a 19-year-old Puljujarvi posted 0.31 P/GP in the NHL. Here are all the 19-year-old's who have posted +/- 0.05 P/GP from 00-01 to 17-18:
Beauvillier
Boedker
PM Bouchard
Josefson
Latendresse
Lindholm
Couterier
Lucic
O'Reilly
Jost
J Staal
Zacha
Turris
Johansen
Puljujarvi
Seguin
Tlusty
Burmistrov
Smith-Pelly
Weiss
McCann
Of those 20 player (not including Puljujarvi), 10 of them became "top" players under the criteria listed in the link, or 50%. The jury is still out on 4 of them (Beauvillier, Jost, Zacha and McCann), so if you exclude them you're left with 10 of 16, or 62.5%.
Now we turn to Jesse's 21-year-old season. He posted 53 points in 56 Liiga games and led the league in shots / corsi, etc. Using an NHLe conversion factor of 0.45, his equivalent P/GP in the NHL would have been 0.43. Using the same criteria as before (+/- 0.05 P/GP), we can see that 59 players matched at 21 years old. I'm not going to list them out, but you can check out the list here:
https://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=2001&year_max=2018&season_start=1&season_end=-1&rookie=N&age_min=21&age_max=21&pos=F&is_playoffs=N&c1stat=points_per_game&c1comp=gt&c1val=0.38&c2stat=points_per_game&c2comp=lt&c2val=0.48&c3stat=games_played&c3comp=gt&c3val=40&threshhold=5&order_by=points_per_game
How many of them became "top" NHLers? Thirty, with the story not yet written with 5 of them: Dvorak, Niederreiter, McCann, Milano and Lehkonen. Dividing 30 into 54 gets us 55.5%.
I don't think it's unreasonable to conclude that Jesse Puljujarvi has >50% chance of becoming a top-6 forward in the NHL, which is a similar probability to that of a #4 - 7 pick in an average draft. I'm not going to say he's worth a top-10 pick in the upcoming draft because I don't think his ceiling is as high as those guys. There's a vast difference between being top-6 (Milan Lucic) and being top-6 (Nicklas Backstrom or Mitch Marner).
If Holland is indeed asking for a mid- to late-1st as has been speculated, I can certainly understand why. Puljujarvi has a higher floor than a typical pick in this range (he's far more likely to become a top-6 forward) and about as high a ceiling.