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Senators Fans Would You Do This Deal

Created by: OldNYIfan
Team: 2020-21 Ottawa Senators
Initial Creation Date: Jun. 9, 2020
Published: Jun. 9, 2020
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
I'm trying to put together a complicated two-step trade sequence between Ottawa and Edmonton and then Edmonton and Toronto. This deal is a prerequisite to the second exchange. Of course, it's hard to visualize without reference to the raft of RFA forwards (Tierney, Connor Brown, Duclair, Balcers, Chlapik, Norris, Paul) that have to be re-signed.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
3$2,133,333
Trades
EDM
  1. 2020 1st round pick (NYI)
Additional Details:
21st overall
Buyouts
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2020
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the SJS
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the NYI
Logo of the DAL
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the WPG
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the TBL
Logo of the SJS
Logo of the STL
2021
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the SJS
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the COL
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the OTT
2022
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the OTT
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
16$81,500,000$37,079,165$0$3,667,500$44,420,835
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$2,500,000$2M)
LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$710,000$710K)
C, LW
RFA - 1
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$4,750,000$4,750,000
C, RW
UFA - 5
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$4,550,000$4,550,000
C, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$736,666$736,666 (Performance Bonus$20,000$20K)
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$894,166$894,166 (Performance Bonus$230,000$230K)
RW
RFA - 1
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$747,500$747,500 (Performance Bonus$132,500$132K)
LW
RFA - 2
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$1,000,000$1,000,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$75,000$75K)
C, RW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$8,000,000$8,000,000
LD
UFA - 8
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$4,500,000$4,500,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$2,600,000$2,600,000
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$1,500,000$1,500,000
LD
UFA - 1
$2,133,333$2,133,333
RD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$700,000$700,000
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$900,000$900,000
LD
UFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$4,875,000$4,875,000
RW
UFA - 1

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Jun. 9, 2020 at 6:36 p.m.
#26
Trade is one for one
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Quoting: OldNYIfan
So how would you go about acquiring this pick from Ottawa?


Why does Edmonton need to acquire that pick? Yamamoto is ready and has chemistry with RNH and Draisaitl, no way I’m moving Yamamoto right now.
CD282 liked this.
Jun. 9, 2020 at 6:37 p.m.
#27
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Once a Kings Fan Too
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Quoting: kafle22
It depends where the pick falls. If the new york pick ends up before the oilers pick, trading up would probably mean giving up a third


I have something in mind, and I am trying to focus on this particular point rather than distract from it by introducing the other point at the same time. The premise here is that the Oilers want to obtain this particular pick. If it makes you feel any better and puts you in a mind to think about the problem presented, assume the Oilers GM has two guys in mind at 20 and wants to select them both.
Jun. 9, 2020 at 6:37 p.m.
#28
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Quoting: OilersNation
Why does Edmonton need to acquire that pick?


I have something in mind, and I am trying to focus on this particular point rather than distract from it by introducing the other point at the same time. The premise here is that the Oilers want to obtain this particular pick. If it makes you feel any better and puts you in a mind to think about the problem presented, assume the Oilers GM has two guys in mind at 20 and wants to select them both.
Jun. 9, 2020 at 6:40 p.m.
#29
Connor
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Quoting: OldNYIfan
{sigh} Because I have something in mind, and I am trying to focus on this particular point rather than distract from it by introducing the other point at the same time. The premise here is that the Oilers want to obtain this particular pick. If it makes you feel any better and puts you in a mind to think about the problem presented, assume the Oilers GM has two guys in mind at 20 and wants to select them both.


maybe puljujarvi benson and like a 2022 second then? Would that get it done? Puljujarvi and benson are both each worth like high seconds, plus the second. I would rather benning benson and puljujarvi but idk if they would accept that
Jun. 9, 2020 at 6:44 p.m.
#30
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Quoting: hockeyconnor97
maybe puljujarvi benson and like a 2022 second then? Would that get it done? Puljujarvi and benson are both each worth like high seconds, plus the second. I would rather benning benson and puljujarvi but idk if they would accept that


That's certainly a possibility, although it violates my CapFriendly Rule #2: You can't trade a homeboy away from his hometown team.
Jun. 9, 2020 at 6:46 p.m.
#31
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@CD282 You and I don't always see eye-to-eye, but I respect your opinions and insight on your own team. What's your take on what you would offer for the 21st overall pick from Ottawa? Assume your own first is out of the equation.
Jun. 10, 2020 at 2:08 a.m.
#32
Kafle
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Quoting: OldNYIfan
I have something in mind, and I am trying to focus on this particular point rather than distract from it by introducing the other point at the same time. The premise here is that the Oilers want to obtain this particular pick. If it makes you feel any better and puts you in a mind to think about the problem presented, assume the Oilers GM has two guys in mind at 20 and wants to select them both.


But I wouldn't trade yamo for it
Jun. 10, 2020 at 7:43 a.m.
#33
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Quoting: OldNYIfan
@CD282 You and I don't always see eye-to-eye, but I respect your opinions and insight on your own team. What's your take on what you would offer for the 21st overall pick from Ottawa? Assume your own first is out of the equation.


First of all, the deal outlined above is not going to happen. Yamamoto alone is worth more than #21 at this point.

If the Oilers wanted to acquire #21 in addition to their own #20, they would probably be offering Puljujarvi straight up. I think Holland is targeting Toronto's #19 pick from Carolina actually, and Ottawa would be his second choice, with NYR as a fallback (as they own Carolina's #23). Of course, the play-in / lottery could change the seeding of these picks and thus their value, but as it stands today that's what I think Holland is aiming for.

Now, I know most posters here won't agree that Puljujarvi is worth a #19-23 pick, but the facts tell us otherwise.

Here's an article that will give you some idea what the odds are of your picks turning into good players:

https://www.coppernblue.com/platform/amp/2011/4/4/2082829/nhl-draft-pick-value-first-round

Even if this is a really deep draft (the jury is still out on that), the probability of the #19 pick becoming a top player is just under 30%.

So the question becomes: what are Puljujarvi's chances of becoming a top player? I'll look at his 19- and 21-year-old seasons to get some idea what his future could look like. I'm not using his 18-year-old season because there are so few comparables (Hughes and Kakko fit but that story isn't written yet), and I'm ignoring his 20-year-old season because he played with the nagging hip issue all year which finally ended his season prematurely.

As a 19-year-old Puljujarvi posted 0.31 P/GP in the NHL. Here are all the 19-year-old's who have posted +/- 0.05 P/GP from 00-01 to 17-18:

Beauvillier
Boedker
PM Bouchard
Josefson
Latendresse
Lindholm
Couterier
Lucic
O'Reilly
Jost
J Staal
Zacha
Turris
Johansen
Puljujarvi
Seguin
Tlusty
Burmistrov
Smith-Pelly
Weiss
McCann

Of those 20 player (not including Puljujarvi), 10 of them became "top" players under the criteria listed in the link, or 50%. The jury is still out on 4 of them (Beauvillier, Jost, Zacha and McCann), so if you exclude them you're left with 10 of 16, or 62.5%.

Now we turn to Jesse's 21-year-old season. He posted 53 points in 56 Liiga games and led the league in shots / corsi, etc. Using an NHLe conversion factor of 0.45, his equivalent P/GP in the NHL would have been 0.43. Using the same criteria as before (+/- 0.05 P/GP), we can see that 59 players matched at 21 years old. I'm not going to list them out, but you can check out the list here:

https://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=2001&year_max=2018&season_start=1&season_end=-1&rookie=N&age_min=21&age_max=21&pos=F&is_playoffs=N&c1stat=points_per_game&c1comp=gt&c1val=0.38&c2stat=points_per_game&c2comp=lt&c2val=0.48&c3stat=games_played&c3comp=gt&c3val=40&threshhold=5&order_by=points_per_game

How many of them became "top" NHLers? Thirty, with the story not yet written with 5 of them: Dvorak, Niederreiter, McCann, Milano and Lehkonen. Dividing 30 into 54 gets us 55.5%.

I don't think it's unreasonable to conclude that Jesse Puljujarvi has >50% chance of becoming a top-6 forward in the NHL, which is a similar probability to that of a #4 - 7 pick in an average draft. I'm not going to say he's worth a top-10 pick in the upcoming draft because I don't think his ceiling is as high as those guys. There's a vast difference between being top-6 (Milan Lucic) and being top-6 (Nicklas Backstrom or Mitch Marner).

If Holland is indeed asking for a mid- to late-1st as has been speculated, I can certainly understand why. Puljujarvi has a higher floor than a typical pick in this range (he's far more likely to become a top-6 forward) and about as high a ceiling.
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