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Silfverberg

Created by: Richard88
Team: 2020-21 Colorado Avalanche
Initial Creation Date: Jun. 11, 2020
Published: Jun. 11, 2020
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
4$5,000,000
3$2,750,000
3$2,250,000
1$925,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$1,000,000
Trades
1.
COL
  1. Silfverberg, Jakob ($1,250,000 retained)
ANA
  1. Beaucage, Alex [Reserve List]
  2. Helleson, Drew [Reserve List]
  3. 2020 1st round pick (COL)
2.
COL
  1. 2020 2nd round pick (VGK)
  2. 2021 3rd round pick (LAK)
LAK
  1. Zadorov, Nikita [RFA Rights]
3.
COL
  1. 2021 4th round pick (FLA)
FLA
  1. Kamenev, Vladislav [RFA Rights]
4.
COL
  1. 2020 2nd round pick (CBJ)
  2. 2020 3rd round pick (OTT)
OTT
  1. Jost, Tyson [RFA Rights]
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2020
Logo of the VGK
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
Logo of the FLA
Logo of the COL
2021
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
Logo of the LAK
Logo of the FLA
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
2022
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
Logo of the COL
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
22$81,500,000$76,018,095$0$5,425,000$5,481,905

Roster

Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$5,571,429$5,571,429
LW, C
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$6,300,000$6,300,000
C
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$9,250,000$9,250,000
RW, C
UFA - 5
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$5,000,000$5,000,000
RW, LW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$4,500,000$4,500,000
C
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Anaheim Ducks
$4,000,000$4,000,000
RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$2,250,000$2,250,000
RW, LW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$3,500,000$3,500,000
C, RW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$3,900,000$3,900,000
RW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$2,850,000$2,850,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$1,800,000$1,800,000
C, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$425,000$425K)
RW
RFA - 3
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$2,750,000$2,750,000
LD
UFA - 3
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$6,000,000$6,000,000
RD
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$3,333,333$3,333,333
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$880,833$880,833 (Performance Bonus$2,500,000$2M)
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$2,000,000$2,000,000
G
UFA - 2
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD/RD
UFA - 7
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$3,450,000$3,450,000
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$894,167$894,167 (Performance Bonus$2,500,000$2M)
LD/RD
RFA - 3
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$925,000$925,000
RW, LW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$150,000$150K)
C
RFA - 2
$1,000,000$1,000,000
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$925,000$925,000
RD
RFA - 1

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Jun. 11, 2020 at 3:58 p.m.
#1
its been a pleasure
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CRAZY overpayment
Jun. 11, 2020 at 3:59 p.m.
#2
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I see FLA - COL as trade partners this off-season. If Colorado is done with Zadorov, Jost, and/or Kamenev, FLA could be very interested. Resigning all 3 could cost as little as ~$5m (or about). And with FLA looking to cut cap, these three could be very useful there.
Jun. 11, 2020 at 4:00 p.m.
#3
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I don't think the Kings will be willing to give up any high round picks in this year's draft under any circumstances.
Jun. 11, 2020 at 4:07 p.m.
#4
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Just re-sign Namestikov. He’d be around the same price, close to the same production, seemed to mesh with MacKinnon, is 2 yrs younger and doesn’t cost assets.
Jun. 11, 2020 at 4:09 p.m.
#5
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Quoting: tkecanuck341
I don't think the Kings will be willing to give up any high round picks in this year's draft under any circumstances.


2nd rd picks aren’t high round picks.
Jun. 11, 2020 at 4:10 p.m.
#6
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John 3 16
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Quoting: MaxDomi13
CRAZY overpayment


I'm not sure what the value is. Why do you think it's a crazy overpayment? What would be a fair offer?

I figure that Silfverberg is like a poor mans Mark Stone and is pacing almost 50 points this season playing in a shutdown role on a terrible team. A defensively strong winger like him would be a really snug fit on our 2nd line, giving us another Landeskog type forward that's really hard to play against. I figured that a 1st would be worth giving up for him due to the retention and term. Maybe i'm wrong though, so I'm curious to here more about what people think about his value.
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Jun. 11, 2020 at 4:20 p.m.
#7
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Ducks accept
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Jun. 11, 2020 at 4:21 p.m.
#8
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John 3 16
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Quoting: villenash
I see FLA - COL as trade partners this off-season. If Colorado is done with Zadorov, Jost, and/or Kamenev, FLA could be very interested. Resigning all 3 could cost as little as ~$5m (or about). And with FLA looking to cut cap, these three could be very useful there.


I agree, Florida is a team that could potentially use all three of those players. They will likely be a good fit for Jost, depending on what happens with Hoffman/Dadonov/Haula of course, and Zadorov has a house in Miami so would probably sign a reasonable deal with them.

I'm not sure they will want to acquire all of them at once, but if they did then maybe something like Kolyachonok + 2nd + 2 3rd's would work. That would effectively be a 2nd + 3rd for each of Jost and Zadorov, plus Kamenev as a throw-in.

As for their contracts, I think something closer to $6-6.5m is probably a more realistic estimate.

Zadorov $3.5m x 3-4 years
Jost $2m x 2-3 years
Kamenev $900k x 1 year
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Jun. 11, 2020 at 4:24 p.m.
#9
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John 3 16
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Quoting: Xqb15
Just re-sign Namestikov. He’d be around the same price, close to the same production, seemed to mesh with MacKinnon, is 2 yrs younger and doesn’t cost assets.


Hmm, I like Namestnikov and he did well in his 9 games after the deadline. But he was rocking a 106 PDO in a time when our lineup was full of injuries, so I'm not sure how sustainable his scoring is. Resigning Namestnikov is a good alternative though for sure, even if he's not quite on the level of Silfverberg on both sides of the puck.

Btw, this AGM is just me playing with an idea. All the Anaheim/Colorado trade proposals seem to involve Rakell so I thought I'd try to see if there's another potential fit.
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Jun. 11, 2020 at 4:26 p.m.
#10
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John 3 16
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Quoting: DarkShadowZz
Ducks accept


Thanks for your feedback, much appreciated.

Do you think this is an offer that is right on the money, or is it an overpayment? What sort of return do you think is fair value for Silfverberg?
Jun. 11, 2020 at 4:28 p.m.
#11
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John 3 16
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Quoting: tkecanuck341
I don't think the Kings will be willing to give up any high round picks in this year's draft under any circumstances.


@OldNYIfan and other LAK fans have agreed on numerous occasions that Kings would trade a 2020 VGK 2nd + 2021 LAK 3rd for Zadorov. They're going to need a LHD to play against opponents' top lines to insulate the kids, and Zadorov would be a good fit for that, at least as a 2-3 year stopgap. He's also young enough to fit with the rebuild if they would want to keep him longterm.
Jun. 11, 2020 at 4:50 p.m.
#12
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Quoting: Xqb15
2nd rd picks aren’t high round picks.


Uhhh, wut?

Quoting: Richard88
@OldNYIfan and other LAK fans have agreed on numerous occasions that Kings would trade a 2020 VGK 2nd + 2021 LAK 3rd for Zadorov. They're going to need a LHD to play against opponents' top lines to insulate the kids, and Zadorov would be a good fit for that, at least as a 2-3 year stopgap. He's also young enough to fit with the rebuild if they would want to keep him longterm.


I'm not saying that Zadorov isn't worth a 2nd round pick, I'm just saying that at this point of the rebuild, the Kings aren't going to give up a 2nd round pick in this year's draft for him.

First, he'd need to be protected in the expansion draft, meaning the Kings would be giving up on one of Clague, Walker, or Roy, who would be the obvious selection for Seattle. Second, the Kings are quite happy with their LHD in the pipeline, they're just not content with having them all be rookies at the same time. They'll want to bring in a veteran that can play on the left for a year or two, but also someone that they can say goodbye to in two years once guys like Bjornfot, Anderson, Clague, and Hults have all had a chance to acclimate to the NHL.

There's a lot of quality veteran LHD out there that can be had for significantly less than a 2nd round pick, let alone a 2nd and a 3rd. Hjalmarsson, Leddy, and Staal could all be acquired for practically nothing in return, at the cost of the Kings taking on an extra bad contract (which they can easily afford). Not to mention there's a lot of UFA LHD available on the open market that can be signed without having to give up anything except $$$. They've already made an offer to Nesterov (2 years @ $3M/year). TJ Brodie could probably be convinced to sign a short-term deal if the Kings are willing to overpay a little bit.

I think Zadorov would be a good fit on the Kings, but not at this cost.
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Jun. 11, 2020 at 5:04 p.m.
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John 3 16
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Quoting: tkecanuck341
Uhhh, wut?



I'm not saying that Zadorov isn't worth a 2nd round pick, I'm just saying that at this point of the rebuild, the Kings aren't going to give up a 2nd round pick in this year's draft for him.

First, he'd need to be protected in the expansion draft, meaning the Kings would be giving up on one of Clague, Walker, or Roy, who would be the obvious selection for Seattle. Second, the Kings are quite happy with their LHD in the pipeline, they're just not content with having them all be rookies at the same time. They'll want to bring in a veteran that can play on the left for a year or two, but also someone that they can say goodbye to in two years once guys like Bjornfot, Anderson, Clague, and Hults have all had a chance to acclimate to the NHL.

There's a lot of quality veteran LHD out there that can be had for significantly less than a 2nd round pick, let alone a 2nd and a 3rd. Hjalmarsson, Leddy, and Staal could all be acquired for practically nothing in return, at the cost of the Kings taking on an extra bad contract (which they can easily afford). Not to mention there's a lot of UFA LHD available on the open market that can be signed without having to give up anything except $$$. They've already made an offer to Nesterov (2 years @ $3M/year). TJ Brodie could probably be convinced to sign a short-term deal if the Kings are willing to overpay a little bit.

I think Zadorov would be a good fit on the Kings, but not at this cost.


Thanks for sharing your thoughts, much appreciated.
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Jun. 11, 2020 at 5:42 p.m.
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Quoting: Richard88
Thanks for your feedback, much appreciated.

Do you think this is an offer that is right on the money, or is it an overpayment? What sort of return do you think is fair value for Silfverberg?


Silvy is a big asset for the ducks. He’s our main scorer and top winger. I would expect a good prospect and a first, or a good RHD and a lower pick. You’d have to add a sweetener if you want us to retain salary.
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Jun. 11, 2020 at 5:56 p.m.
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I'm not as big a fan of trading Silfverberg as I am of trading Rakell (which I dislike, by the way), because while both are right-handed, Silfvy plays RW and Rakell plays LW where we have a lot more depth and quality. But if this were the offer, I think that I would take it. A rebuilding team that desperately needs offense and RD help can't turn down any reasonable offer that includes a 2020 first-round pick. But I don't think you'd get the retention.
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Jun. 11, 2020 at 6:11 p.m.
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Quoting: tkecanuck341
Uhhh, wut?


NHL draft isn’t the NFL. A 2nd rd pick is not only significantly less valuable than a 1st, check out any of the articles on the success rate of NHL draft picks and how after around 15 the numbers drop significantly
Jun. 11, 2020 at 6:20 p.m.
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Quoting: Xqb15
NHL draft isn’t the NFL. A 2nd rd pick is not only significantly less valuable than a 1st, check out any of the articles on the success rate of NHL draft picks and how after around 15 the numbers drop significantly


I'm not saying it's not, but that doesn't make a 2nd round pick not-valuable. Having more of them increases the chance that one or more of them will turn into quality NHL players. Here is a list of the Kings 2nd round picks from the last 12 years, ordered by the overall pick.

Slava Voynov (2008 - 32nd overall)
Arthur Kaliyev (2019 - 33rd overall)
Kyle Clifford (2009 - 35th overall)
Valentin Zykov (2013 - 37th overall)
Jaret Anderson-Dolan (2017 - 41st overall)
Erik Cernak (2015 - 43rd overall)
Tyler Toffoli (2010 - 47th overall)
Christopher Gibson (2011 - 49th overall)
Roland McKeown (2014 - 50th overall)
Samuel Fagemo (2019 - 50th overall)
Kale Clague (2016 - 51st overall)
Akil Thomas (2018 - 51st overall)

Of those, only two of those turned out to be busts (Zykov, Gibson). The jury is still out on McKeown. That's a pretty solid hit rate if you ask me.
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Jun. 11, 2020 at 6:46 p.m.
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John 3 16
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Quoting: DarkShadowZz
Silvy is a big asset for the ducks. He’s our main scorer and top winger. I would expect a good prospect and a first, or a good RHD and a lower pick. You’d have to add a sweetener if you want us to retain salary.


Quoting: OldNYIfan
I'm not as big a fan of trading Silfverberg as I am of trading Rakell (which I dislike, by the way), because while both are right-handed, Silfvy plays RW and Rakell plays LW where we have a lot more depth and quality. But if this were the offer, I think that I would take it. A rebuilding team that desperately needs offense and RD help can't turn down any reasonable offer that includes a 2020 first-round pick. But I don't think you'd get the retention.



Would you accept COL 2020 1st + Helleson, without a lesser prospect like Beaucage included?
Jun. 11, 2020 at 7:21 p.m.
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Quoting: Richard88
Would you accept COL 2020 1st + Helleson, without a lesser prospect like Beaucage included?


Certainly not for Silfverberg. Probably not for Rakell; it just seems a little short. To me, the first and Timmins is right for Rakell; Silfverberg is a little more.
Jun. 11, 2020 at 8:52 p.m.
#20
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Quoting: tkecanuck341
I'm not saying it's not, but that doesn't make a 2nd round pick not-valuable. Having more of them increases the chance that one or more of them will turn into quality NHL players. Here is a list of the Kings 2nd round picks from the last 12 years, ordered by the overall pick.

Slava Voynov (2008 - 32nd overall)
Arthur Kaliyev (2019 - 33rd overall)
Kyle Clifford (2009 - 35th overall)
Valentin Zykov (2013 - 37th overall)
Jaret Anderson-Dolan (2017 - 41st overall)
Erik Cernak (2015 - 43rd overall)
Tyler Toffoli (2010 - 47th overall)
Christopher Gibson (2011 - 49th overall)
Roland McKeown (2014 - 50th overall)
Samuel Fagemo (2019 - 50th overall)
Kale Clague (2016 - 51st overall)
Akil Thomas (2018 - 51st overall)

Of those, only two of those turned out to be busts (Zykov, Gibson). The jury is still out on McKeown. That's a pretty solid hit rate if you ask me.


Voynov- out of the nhl rightly so
Kaliyev - hasn’t played an NHL game
Thomas - hasn’t played an NHL game
Klague - 4 NHL games
Fagemo - hasn’t played an NHL game
McKeown - 10 NHL games
Zykov - 55 NHL games
Gibson - 14 NHL games

You’re making an argument with no empirical data (and projecting what you hope)and arguing against a guy w/over 300 games who has played in a top 4 role and killed penalties.

If you don’t like the value of the trade fine, but don’t throw out a lengthy answer with a bunch of no fact based success stories of 2nd rd picks.

Just one of many articles talking about success rate of picks

https://www.liveabout.com/nhl-draft-picks-2779293
Jun. 11, 2020 at 9:48 p.m.
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Quoting: Xqb15
Voynov- out of the nhl rightly so
Kaliyev - hasn’t played an NHL game
Thomas - hasn’t played an NHL game
Klague - 4 NHL games
Fagemo - hasn’t played an NHL game
McKeown - 10 NHL games
Zykov - 55 NHL games
Gibson - 14 NHL games

You’re making an argument with no empirical data (and projecting what you hope)and arguing against a guy w/over 300 games who has played in a top 4 role and killed penalties.

If you don’t like the value of the trade fine, but don’t throw out a lengthy answer with a bunch of no fact based success stories of 2nd rd picks.

Just one of many articles talking about success rate of picks

https://www.liveabout.com/nhl-draft-picks-2779293


What does Voynov being a human piece of garbage have anything to do with how good or bad he is at hockey? That 2nd round pick was a key piece in winning the Kings their only 2 Cups in franchise history, and he was perhaps the best player on the team in the 2012-13 run when they were eliminated by the Blackhawks in the conference finals. Overwhelmingly successful pick IMO.

I stated my opinions above regarding why the Kings shouldn't do this trade. It has nothing to do with whether or not Zadorov is "worth" the picks, but rather where the Kings are organizationally with their LHD prospects and how far along they have progressed in their rebuild.

My sole complaint about your post is that you say that a 2nd round pick is not a "high-round pick" which is clearly BS. My retort was that the Kings have a quality track record when drafting in the 2nd round, and that I wouldn't trade a single one of the guys who "hasn't played an NHL game" for Zadorov straight up. I'd much rather get another 18-year old kid with a 25% chance of making it, than give up a HIGH ROUND draft pick and a 3rd in exchange for a defensemen that the Kings would likely lose in the expansion draft anyway.
Jun. 12, 2020 at 3:06 a.m.
#22
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Quoting: tkecanuck341
What does Voynov being a human piece of garbage have anything to do with how good or bad he is at hockey? That 2nd round pick was a key piece in winning the Kings their only 2 Cups in franchise history, and he was perhaps the best player on the team in the 2012-13 run when they were eliminated by the Blackhawks in the conference finals. Overwhelmingly successful pick IMO.

I stated my opinions above regarding why the Kings shouldn't do this trade. It has nothing to do with whether or not Zadorov is "worth" the picks, but rather where the Kings are organizationally with their LHD prospects and how far along they have progressed in their rebuild.

My sole complaint about your post is that you say that a 2nd round pick is not a "high-round pick" which is clearly BS. My retort was that the Kings have a quality track record when drafting in the 2nd round, and that I wouldn't trade a single one of the guys who "hasn't played an NHL game" for Zadorov straight up. I'd much rather get another 18-year old kid with a 25% chance of making it, than give up a HIGH ROUND draft pick and a 3rd in exchange for a defensemen that the Kings would likely lose in the expansion draft anyway.

Dandy, you’re still wrong a 2nd is a high round pick. I’m not saying that they don’t have value but to label high is at the very least disingenuous. You want to ignore everything to argue that point great. You do you.
Jun. 12, 2020 at 3:21 a.m.
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Quoting: Xqb15
Dandy, you’re still wrong a 2nd is a high round pick. I’m not saying that they don’t have value but to label high is at the very least disingenuous. You want to ignore everything to argue that point great. You do you.


Then what do you consider a "high-round pick"? "First" and "High" can't just be synonymous.

1st & 2nd = High
3rd thru 5th = Mid
6th & 7th = Low

I didn't think that was a controversial point.
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Jun. 12, 2020 at 9:17 a.m.
#24
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Quoting: tkecanuck341
Then what do you consider a "high-round pick"? "First" and "High" can't just be synonymous.

1st & 2nd = High
3rd thru 5th = Mid
6th & 7th = Low

I didn't think that was a controversial point.


I was kinda a dick about my position so sorry about that. I think of NHL picks like this:
Elite - top 4 you miss on a top 4 pick it’s devastating 1st line forward, #1 d-man, franchise goalie (good luck with goalies). Immediate core guys.
High/excellent-rest of the lottery - legit top 6 forward not some guy scoring 25pts playing on 2nd line. First pairing dman. Goalie (again voodoo - but you’re starter by the end of his elc)
Very good /mid -end of lottery-mid 2nd guys that slid for one reason or another. Your guy Kaliyev elite goal scorer, solid not great wheels literally looked like he was allergic to playing defense his draft year.
Good/lower mid - rest of second to around mid 3 - guys that dropped for apparently no reason best I can think of is Dorofeyev last yr to Vegas
Fair - rest of them

Obviously the depth of a draft can expand or shrink.
Jun. 12, 2020 at 10:23 a.m.
#25
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John 3 16
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Quoting: Xqb15
I was kinda a dick about my position so sorry about that. I think of NHL picks like this:
Elite - top 4 you miss on a top 4 pick it’s devastating 1st line forward, #1 d-man, franchise goalie (good luck with goalies). Immediate core guys.
High/excellent-rest of the lottery - legit top 6 forward not some guy scoring 25pts playing on 2nd line. First pairing dman. Goalie (again voodoo - but you’re starter by the end of his elc)
Very good /mid -end of lottery-mid 2nd guys that slid for one reason or another. Your guy Kaliyev elite goal scorer, solid not great wheels literally looked like he was allergic to playing defense his draft year.
Good/lower mid - rest of second to around mid 3 - guys that dropped for apparently no reason best I can think of is Dorofeyev last yr to Vegas
Fair - rest of them

Obviously the depth of a draft can expand or shrink.


Your view is very much in line with the chart below.

chart4.jpg

In general I think most hockey fans overrate the value of draft picks. But to be honest I do also typically tend to think of picks in the same way that @tkecanuck341 outlined, especially in a year like this with a pretty deep draft and where there is a clear tier between like #24 and #45, whereby you can effectively get a player who's normally a late 1st round pick with a top-half 2nd round pick.

I really hope that Sakic can acquire 1 or 2 extra picks in that region of the draft, either by trading down from #27 to pick up 2 2nd's, or by getting back some good value picks if we move Zadorov/Jost/Kamenev. A good haul this draft year could really set us up nicely for 2023 and beyond when we're going to need some cheap young players to extend the window.
 
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