I saw this debate on the NHL Tape Talk page today on Instagram, so I thought it would be a good discussion here. Though not the same type of players, I feel they are in a similar circumstance since both have pretty good underlying numbers, they put up great production and often have their achievements undermined because they play alongside elite centers.
Mitch Marner has 83 goals and 291 points in 300 career regular-season games. In the playoffs, he has 5 goals and 17 points in 20 games.
Jake Guentzel has 98 goals and 200 points in 243 career regular-season games. In the playoffs, he has 24 goals and 43 points in 41 games.
Personally, I think it's very close but I'd give Guentzel the edge. He's more of a goal scorer which makes him more important, plus his ability to elevate his play in the playoffs is better than the vast majority of players in the league.
So I'd personally say Marner since last season, he had, what, 92 or 93 points? And this is at age 22 or something. Guentzel, on the other hand, is 25, and had 76 points last season. I know Guentzel this season was over ppg, and was on pace for 90 points, but Marner had a 93 point pace, and he's two years younger.
If its goal scoring guentzel, if its all around play-making ability, marner. In general Marner is younger and is already a 90 point player when healthy so between the 2 I would rather have marner.
6m vs 10.8m, for 5m you can get a dam good Dman that the leafs desperately need. Marner is way overpaid.
at 300 games Jake Guentzel would be projected to have 247 point, 122 goals 125 assists to Marner 83 goals 208 assists. Jake is 2 years older tho. PIT is considered a cup contender, the leafs barely can make the playoffs. You can marner and his extra assists and a D core than is ECHL caliber or Jake with his goals and have a D core that is NHL caliber.
6m vs 10.8m, for 5m you can get a dam good Dman that the leafs desperately need. Marner is way overpaid.
at 300 games Jake Guentzel would be projected to have 247 point, 122 goals 125 assists to Marner 83 goals 208 assists. Jake is 2 years older tho. PIT is considered a cup contender, the leafs barely can make the playoffs. You can marner and his extra assists and a D core than is ECHL caliber or Jake with his goals and have a D core that is NHL caliber.
ECHL Caliber lol?
Rielly- top-10 defensemen undoubtedly in the NHL
Muzzin- Very good top-pairing defensemen, top-30 in the NHL.
Barrie- High end offensive defensemn, top-45 in the NHL.
Holl- Analytics love him, he withstands the eye test AND he can produce. Legit 2nd pairing defensemn
Sandin- Was 0.75 ppg in the AHL as a 20 year old and played phenomenally in his callup. Will be top-pairing in 3-4 years.
Dermott- Solid 3rd pairing defensemen on any team
Liljegren- 30 pts in 40 games as a 21 year old with some of the best defense in the entire AHL. Stud.
Love both of them but I like Marner better. He’s more versatile and based on what I’ve seen out of him, I think his tools are better than Guentzel’s (skating, playmaking, etc.), although I admit I don’t watch much of Pittsburgh.
I think I'd go with Marner long term but it's very close. Heading in to the playoffs this season I'd rather have Guentzel he has more playoff experience including a cup. He is averaging over a point a game in the playoffs.
Definitely a big fan of playmakers. Marner definitely has the point production and ability to make others better that I appreciate. Guentzel is very good though too. Great goal scorer and a hard worker. Great playoff performer too. I love his contract to death as well, cuz guys of his caliber don’t usually get those good contracts these days.
Overall I gotta go with marner though. I love players like him. My favorite player ever was peter forsberg, so I love playmakers and consistent point getters, which marner is.
Marner is the better player, but I would trade him for Guentzel for the extra cap space, and because clutch players who perform like Guentzel during the playoffs is exactly what the Leafs need to end the drought.
Its tough because one is a better goal scorer and the other a better setup man. I honestly don't get to see enough of them for the eye test, but looking at some of their numbers I'd give it to Marner.
Just looking at 5v5 where all things are equal, If you look at Guentzel's advanced #'s away from Crosby there is a pretty good size drop. While Marner has a drop away from Tavares, its not as much of a drop. Over the last 3 seasons, 25% of Marner's production has come with JT being credited with a point as well. On the opposite side Crosby has factored into 39% of Guentzel's 5v5 production over the last 3 years and 50% of Guentzel's 5v5 goals scored (36% of the time he was the primary assist).
I guess I look at it this way. I'm more confident in Marner being successful away from JT than I am Guentzel being successful away from Crosby. As someone who hates Crosby, he's still the best player in the world because he just makes everyone around him better. McDavid talent wise is an monster, but he's more of a one man show.