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UFA Signing Predictions

Jun. 19, 2020 at 10:02 a.m.
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I am going to try to do my best with these predictions - please correct me if you believe I am wrong, and if you need further explanation let me know as well. I took a lot of time to do this

UFAs

Dustin Byfuglien - $700 000 for 1 year
For Big Buff, it's probably this or retirement.

Alex Pietrangelo - $9 500 000 for 7 years
He's going to sign this on the open market, and $8.75Mx7 with STL.

Braden Holtby - $4 000 000 for 1 year
He had an abysmal season this year, so I think he will take a one year show-me deal to see if he will bounce back. Nobody will give him a raise.

Corey Crawford - $3 750 000 for 1 year
He's getting older, so there's no way he will get more than one or two years. If he takes 2 years, it will be $4.25M.

Taylor Hall - $8 500 000 for 7 years
Everyone says he will get $9M+, but he's not even PPG, so he should get 8.5M on a 7 year deal.

Mikael Granlund - $4 750 000 for 1 year
Just like Holtby, he didn't have a good season, so he takes a show me deal to prove himself.

Justin Schultz - $2 500 000 for 1 year
I'm not sure how good he is, so I'm just spitballing here

Tyson Barrie - $6 500 000 for 7 years
Rumour had it that Barrie was looking for $8M, but there's no way that's happening.

Mikko Koivu - $1 000 000 for 1 year
He's getting older, and he spent the majority of the season as a 4C. He's not getting that much.

Mike Green - $1 500 000 for 1 year
Again, getting older and losing his efficiency. Won't make too much

Torey Krug - $8 750 000 for 7 years
If he signs in Detroit, I think it'll be closer to $8.5M, and if he signs in Boston, he will get $7.75M

Mike Hoffman - $6 000 000 for 5 years
Identical to Zuccarello - but hopefully he fits wherever he goes

Andy Greene - $1 250 000 for 1 year
Old man is losing efficiency.

Wayne Simmonds - $1 950 000 for 1 year
He was horrible last two seasons - he won't get a chance to redeem himself with 5M again. He will get 2M or lower.

Robin Lehner - $6 500 000 for 6 years
Elite goalie. Will get nearly 7M.

Alex Galchenyuk - $2 400 000 for 1 year
He will probably want to try to prove himself on a one year deal

Sami Vatanen - $3 000 000 for 1 year
Horrible season. Needs to prove himself.

Carl Soderberg - $3 750 000 for 1 year
Realistically, he would get closer to 3M, but since the centre UFA market is really bad this season, he will be overpaid.

Craig Anderson - RETIRES
He's 39. If he doesn't retire, he'll get $2M on a one year deal.

TJ Brodie - $5 000 000 for 4 years
Defenseman who can play both sides. Will want a raise.

Tyler Toffoli - $5 500 000 for 4 years
Had a 53 point pace after two seasons with 34 pts.

Cody Ceci - $1 500 000 for 1 year
He sucks. He may want a chance to redeem himself.

Chris Tanev - $4 650 000 for 1 year
This is what he'll get with VAN, but on open market I think it will be 5.5x4

Dmitry Kulikov - $1 500 000 for 1 year
Nobody wants to sign him for much.

Michael Frolik - $1 300 000 for 1 year
He’s bad.

Craig Smith - $4 875 000 for 3 years
0.5 ppg, but will get quite a bit.

Jonathan Ericsson - $700 000 for 1 year
Absolutely terrible.

Jimmy Howard - $3 000 000 for 1 year
Over 4 GAA, lower than .900 SV%. Should get 700K.

Vladislav Namestnikov - $3 833 333 for 3 years
Worse than when he was extended, so not as much money.

Mikkel Boedker - UNSIGNED
He signed in Europe.

Evgenii Dadonov - $6 125 000 for 5 years
A bit better than Hoffman, which is why he gets a bit more.

Travis Hamonic - $4 000 000 for 2 years
Not sure what to give him.

Cody Eakin - $3 850 000 for 1 year
He was decent at the time of his signing, but during those 4 years he was very up and down. Let him have one last chance.

Justin Braun - $4 000 000 for 2 years
Apparently he was good, but he’s 33. Don’t sign him past the age of 35.

Jacob Markstrom - $5 000 000 for 1 year
He’ll sign this with VAN, so he doesn’t have to be protected in the expansion draft (I think), but if he signs elsewhere, it will be $6.5Mx5.

Ron Hainsey - RETIRED
Another UFA Senator who retires at 39.

Radko Gudas - $3 300 000 for 2 years
3rd pair grit. Not too sure as to what he gets.

Thomas Greiss - $3 750 000 for 1 year
A backup who can also be a 1B goalie.

Brenden Dillon - $4 000 000 for 3 years
Good 2nd pair defenseman, maybe 1st.

Jay Bouwmeester - $2 750 000 for 1 year
Wasn’t sure what to give him here, since he collapsed on the bench. I know he’s fine, but he’s 36.

Trevor Daley - $700 000 for 1 year
36 year old bad player.

Joel Edmundson - $2 900 000 for 1 year
Supposedly he had a really bad season, so he will take a 1 year deal to redeem himself, because realistically nobody will give him a raise.

Conor Sheary - $2 500 000 for 1 year
He might take a discount to play with Sid.

Ryan Reaves - $2 550 000 for 1 year
Gritty 4th liner.

Cam Talbot - $3 250 000 for 2 years
Nice job this season. 2.63 SV%, .919 GAA.

Erik Haula - $4 750 000 for 3 years
The best centre on the UFA market - he will inevitably be overpaid.

Mark Pysyk - $2 450 000 for 2 years
A defenseman that can be a winger as well. Not bad.

Colin Wilson - $2 500 000 for 1 year
His year was ended by injury. Someone will give him a second chance.

Derek Forbort - $1 500 000 for 1 year
Decent in the first year, terrible in the second. Was on pace for 4 points. 4!

Anton Khudobin - $3 200 000 for 1 year
2.22 SV%, .930 GAA. Pretty much an all star level backup, who played 30 games.

Matt Martin - $1 500 000 for 1 year
He’s only 31, but 4th liners like him get one year deals.

Dale Weise - $800 000 for 1 year
AHL player on contending and around-the-middle teams, NHL player for bad teams.

Mattias Janmark - $2 500 000 for 2 years
Haven’t watched him much, so not sure what he will get.

Trevor van Riemsdyk - $2 125 000 for 1 year
As the players get worse and worse, I start not to know what they’ll get.

Jimmy Vesey - $2 500 000 for 3 years
He’s not 30 yet. This contract takes him to 30.

Melker Karlsson - $1 500 000 for 1 year
4th liner who can play 3rd if needed (I think).
Mike Smith - RETIRED
Another 39 year old who retires.

Brian Elliot - $1 750 000 for 1 year
He’ll take this wherever. 35 year olds don’t typically take longer than one year deals.

Zdeno Chara - $1 750 000 for 1 year
He’s 43, but he will probably want to continue with the B’s. He’ll get a small decrease in pay since he’s 43.

Trevor Lewis - $1 750 000 for 2 years
0.21 ppg. Not good, but he may want 2 years. If not, then 1 year for 1.45M.

Joe Thornton - $775 000 for 1 year
Uncle Joe’s 40. He won’t make much even though he was close to 0.5ppg.

Matt Nieto - $3 750 000 for 7 years
The next Brandon Tanev.

Aaron Dell - $2 000 000 for 1 year
Slight raise for a backup.

Jesper Fast - $3 500 000 for 2 years
0.42 ppg. He can be a good 3rd or 2nd liner.

Kevin Shattenkirk - $3 500 000 for 2 years
He benefited from playing with Hedman, McDonagh and Sergachev. The GMs may not see that.

Roman Polak - SIGNS IN CZE
He signed in Czech Republic.

Zemgus Girgensons - $1 750 000 for 1 year
Will likely want a small raise.

Kyle Clifford - $1 750 000 for 3 years
Gritty 4th liner, but not Gritty.

Johan Larsson - $2 016 667 for 3 years
Sabres want to keep him as a 3C. Might not happen with Mitts potentially being back in the NHL next year though.

Josh Leivo - $3 500 000 for 4 years
Another Brandon Tanev (sort of), but he can go up and down the lineup.

Corey Perry - $1 250 000 for 1 year
If he’s lucky.

Ben Hutton - $1 750 000 for 1 year
Slight, slight raise. He could do decently on a good team.

Andrej Sekera - $1 350 000 for 1 year
Good vet to mentor the kids.

Mark Barberio - $1 275 000 for 1 year
7th or 8th D-man.

Jon Merrill - $1 250 000 for 1 year
Another 7/8D

Jan Rutta - $1 700 000 for 1 year
Prove that it wasn’t a fluke, Jan. Prove it.

Zach Bogosian - $1 300 00 for 1 year
He can have the same money, since he’s a 6/7D.

Matthew Peca - $700 000 for 1 year
He couldn’t perform at the AHL level with Laval, but he played in the NHL for the Sens.

Brad Richardson - $1 215 000 for 1 year
Just like Nate Thompson. A vet 13th forward.

Dan Hamhuis - RETIRED
He has to. He’s 37.

Laurent Brossoit - $1 225 000 for 1 year
He wasn’t that bad last year - maybe he can redeem himself.

Erik Gustafsson - $3 500 000 for 1 year
60 points, then a 36 point pace. Which one is he?

Derrick Brassard - $2 000 000 for 1 year
32 year old dude who seemingly isn’t that good at centre.

Mark Borowiecki - $1 450 000 for 2 years
He wants to stay in Ottawa, so stay he shall (I think).

Louis Domingue - $900 000 for 1 year
He can be a backup for DET or some other team who doesn’t have a starter or a backup.

Ryan Miller - $925 000 for 1 year
I think he’ll try to pull through and play at the age of 40 with the Ducks.

Tomas Nosek - $1 200 000 for 1 year
4th liner or depth player who can play C or LW.

Nathan Beaulieu - $975 000 for 1 year
7/8 D.

Nate Thompson - $1 100 000 for 1 year
He may get a slight raise. He’s still a serviceable vet 13th forward.

Tyler Pitlick - $1 500 000 for 1 year
3rd or 4th liner. How PHI got him at just a million, I don’t know.

Joakim Nordstrom - $1 100 000 for 1 year
4LW who can also be a 13th forward.

Tim Heed - $965 000 for 1 year
$5K raise; he can be a 6/7 D.

Brian Boyle - $1 000 000 for 1 year
Same as Thompson - a serviceable vet 13th forward.

Pat Maroon - $1 475 000 for 1 year
I don’t see him getting more than this. He’s not that great.

Dylan DeMelo - $3 250 000 for 4 years
Can someone explain to me why he gets so much?

Riley Sheahan - $2 125 000 for 2 years
He’s asking for 3rd line money. Oilers only want to give him 4th line money.

Oscar Fantenberg - $700 000 for 1 year
8th defenseman, or an AHL d-man.

Tom Kuhnhackl - $915 000 for 1 year
He can be a depth player on either wing.

Korbinian Holzer - $865 000 for 1 year
Slight raise for the 32 year old.

Christian Folin - $700 000 for 1 year
He’s a 7/8 D, or an AHL d-man.

Tyler Ennis - $2 000 000 for 3 years
He was 0.53 ppg. Can he repeat it?

Cody Goloubef - $700 000 for 1 year
Another Folin.

Carson Soucy - $1 000 000 for 3 years
¼ ppg. Not great.

Michael Del Zotto - $700 000 for 1 year
He can be a serviceable 7D.

Nick Shore - $775 000 for 1 year
He’ll want a raise even though he sucks.

Luca Sbisa - $750 000 for 1 year
He didn’t get to show what he could do this year.

Derek Grant - $890 000 for 1 year
Wasn’t bad this year. Still won’t make much.

Luke Schenn - $700 000 for 1 year
No raise for you.

Brendan Leipsic - KHL
After what he did, nobody will sign him. Big L for him.

Anthony Bitetto - $700 000 for 1 year
He isn’t that good, right?

Michael Stone - $700 000 for 1 year
He’s terrible.

Jason Spezza - $700 000 for 1 year
Pretty sure he’ll take league minimum to stay with TOR. If not then he’ll take 725K.

Logan Shaw - $700 000 for 1 year
14th forward. Potentially even AHL forward.

Michael Hutchinson - $700 000 for 1 year
He might sign as an NHL goalie for a team who has horrible goaltending, such as maybe DET or OTT.

Deryk Engelland - RETIRED
38 year old dude.

Ilya Kovalchuk - $1 500 000 for 1 year
This is difficult. He could make anywhere from 1M to 3M.

Patrick Marleau - $775 000
I think he will try to continue playing, even though he’s 40.

Yannick Weber - $700 000 for 1 year
Veteran who will not make much.

Matt Irwin - $700 000 for 1 year
He got time in Anaheim, but he’ll only get time in teams like that - with bad defense.

Colin Blackwell - $700 000 for 1 year
Same as L. Shaw.

Valentin Zykov - $700 000 for 1 year
Again, same as Blackwell and Shaw.
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Jun. 19, 2020 at 3:10 p.m.
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In general I think on average the UFA class will make less than your predictions due to a flat cap. Two of these that stuck out to me the most was Nieto at 3.75x7 (that's just way too high for way too long) and Grant at 890k for 1 year (this is really undervaluing him imo)
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Jun. 19, 2020 at 4:54 p.m.
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I didn't read all of them, but Schultz will get more than 2.5M (if the cap stays the same).
Jun. 19, 2020 at 4:57 p.m.
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Quoting: rangersandislesfan
I didn't read all of them, but Schultz will get more than 2.5M (if the cap stays the same).


I didn't expect you to read all of them

Quoting: moli92
In general I think on average the UFA class will make less than your predictions due to a flat cap. Two of these that stuck out to me the most was Nieto at 3.75x7 (that's just way too high for way too long) and Grant at 890k for 1 year (this is really undervaluing him imo)


Nieto is the next B. Tanev (4th liner getting 7 years)
Jun. 19, 2020 at 5:01 p.m.
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Quoting: MaxDomi13

Nieto is the next B. Tanev (4th liner getting 7 years)


I highly doubt that
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Jun. 19, 2020 at 5:06 p.m.
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Quoting: moli92
I highly doubt that


lol idk just wanted to add another guy for 7 yrs
Jun. 20, 2020 at 10:31 a.m.
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With a flat cap, and good RFAs making more money, I think it's going to a $$$ hit to those bottom end players. Many won't be getting nearly as much.

Strange how you said" Ceci sucks" at 1.5m X 1 but you gave the defensive negligent Barrie 6.5m X 7. IMO Barrie was the Leafs worse Dman last year.
Jun. 20, 2020 at 4:09 p.m.
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Very nice work. I may not agree with some figures but after all, this is just speculation by all of us. I admire your effort, thoroughness and thoughtfulness.
Jun. 20, 2020 at 4:15 p.m.
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Quoting: OldNYIfan
Very nice work. I may not agree with some figures but after all, this is just speculation by all of us. I admire your effort, thoroughness and thoughtfulness.


Thank you!
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Jun. 20, 2020 at 4:25 p.m.
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Quoting: MaxDomi13
Thank you!


By the way, my thinking on De Melo (whom I keep signing for $3.75 or $4 million) is that so many teams (Anaheim, Las Vegas, Toronto, Winnipeg, to name just 4) need RD that the market for a sound, defensive d-man will be inflated. (It's why even a lesser d-man like Gudas may get significant money.) Your comments on all the SoCal-related personnel (Lewis, Del Zotto, Hutton, Miller, Grant, Irwin, etc.) are very accurate but I hope all of them get more money than you have here -- but that may be valuations colored by personal sympathy.
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Jun. 21, 2020 at 3:47 a.m.
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Amazing post! it'd take me 2 months supply of adderall to complete these predictions!

Here's a few discrepancies:

1. Sami Vatanen: $4M x 3 seasons. He's injury prone, but was on a near career points pace before he was hurt and subsequently traded to CAR. He could be a really solid 3rd pair D on a contending team.

2. Jacob Markstrom: $5.5M x 4/5 years. He's arguably the top UFA Goalie. He had an incredible season despite playing behind a mediocre D.

3. Mikael Granlund: $4M+ x 5 years. He hasn't meshed well in Nashville, but he's still capable of 55+ points in the right system. I'd love to see him in EDM or CGY next season.

4. Cody Eakin: $1.75M x 1 year. I think you're spot on with the term, but anything over $2M seems a bit too much for a 29 y.o. coming off a 15 point season on a loaded VGK offense.

5. Brenden Dillon: $2.75M x 4 years. He's way overrated, imo. I think he's best suited as a 3rd pair D on a good team, but not in WASH.

6. Jimmy Howard: PTO haha

General conclusions:

This year's UFA class is very heavy on Goalies, solid on Defensemen and Wingers, and exceptionally weak on Centers. Haula will be overpaid in spite of his injury history (good call).

Dadonov will end up a better value contract than Hall, Toffoli, and Hoffman. I think he stays put in FLA.

Krug re-signs in BOS, Pietrangelo re-signs in STL, Barrie goes to WPG. He'll score 70+ points next season on the league's top PP.

Overall, considering the flat cap and other circumstances, GM's will be reluctant to sign Goalies and 30 y.o. plus vets to long-term deals. I call this the Binnington effect.
Jun. 21, 2020 at 12:09 p.m.
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Quoting: Brian2016
Amazing post! it'd take me 2 months supply of adderall to complete these predictions!

Here's a few discrepancies:

1. Sami Vatanen: $4M x 3 seasons. He's injury prone, but was on a near career points pace before he was hurt and subsequently traded to CAR. He could be a really solid 3rd pair D on a contending team.

2. Jacob Markstrom: $5.5M x 4/5 years. He's arguably the top UFA Goalie. He had an incredible season despite playing behind a mediocre D.

3. Mikael Granlund: $4M+ x 5 years. He hasn't meshed well in Nashville, but he's still capable of 55+ points in the right system. I'd love to see him in EDM or CGY next season.

4. Cody Eakin: $1.75M x 1 year. I think you're spot on with the term, but anything over $2M seems a bit too much for a 29 y.o. coming off a 15 point season on a loaded VGK offense.

5. Brenden Dillon: $2.75M x 4 years. He's way overrated, imo. I think he's best suited as a 3rd pair D on a good team, but not in WASH.

6. Jimmy Howard: PTO haha

General conclusions:

This year's UFA class is very heavy on Goalies, solid on Defensemen and Wingers, and exceptionally weak on Centers. Haula will be overpaid in spite of his injury history (good call).

Dadonov will end up a better value contract than Hall, Toffoli, and Hoffman. I think he stays put in FLA.

Krug re-signs in BOS, Pietrangelo re-signs in STL, Barrie goes to WPG. He'll score 70+ points next season on the league's top PP.

Overall, considering the flat cap and other circumstances, GM's will be reluctant to sign Goalies and 30 y.o. plus vets to long-term deals. I call this the Binnington effect.


I object to your use of the word "discrepancies." A discrepancy is a conflict between two pieces of information, implying that the OP is in error. You merely have some different predictions.
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Jun. 21, 2020 at 6:28 p.m.
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Quoting: OldNYIfan
I object to your use of the word "discrepancies." A discrepancy is a conflict between two pieces of information, implying that the OP is in error. You merely have some different predictions.


What word would you use to replace it???
Jun. 21, 2020 at 7:04 p.m.
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Quoting: Brian2016
What word would you use to replace it???


I have a different take on some of your projections:

or

I have some different ideas about some of the FA's:

A discrepancy would occur if, for example, in his preamble @MaxDomi13 had said "Despite many predictions, I don't think that anyone in this class of free agents is getting more than $8 million" and then had higher figures (as he has) for Pietrangelo and Hall.
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Jun. 21, 2020 at 8:47 p.m.
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Quoting: OldNYIfan
I have a different take on some of your projections:

or

I have some different ideas about some of the FA's:

A discrepancy would occur if, for example, in his preamble @MaxDomi13 had said "Despite many predictions, I don't think that anyone in this class of free agents is getting more than $8 million" and then had higher figures (as he has) for Pietrangelo and Hall.


PINGGGGGGGGGGGGGG

No need to @ me in my own post - I get notified anyway
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Jun. 22, 2020 at 5:18 a.m.
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Quoting: OldNYIfan
I have a different take on some of your projections:

or

I have some different ideas about some of the FA's:

A discrepancy would occur if, for example, in his preamble @MaxDomi13 had said "Despite many predictions, I don't think that anyone in this class of free agents is getting more than $8 million" and then had higher figures (as he has) for Pietrangelo and Hall.


I guess I should feel really good about the fact that you took issue with my vocabulary rather than the substance of my predictions, lol. We should all be this fortunate!
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Jun. 22, 2020 at 9:19 a.m.
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Quoting: Brian2016
I guess I should feel really good about the fact that you took issue with my vocabulary rather than the substance of my predictions, lol. We should all be this fortunate!


Please don't quote a post with an @ mention in it - I get the PONG
Jun. 22, 2020 at 9:40 a.m.
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Quoting: Brian2016
I guess I should feel really good about the fact that you took issue with my vocabulary rather than the substance of my predictions, lol. We should all be this fortunate!


It's just a small thing, and I mean no disrespect to you, and I know you meant no disrespect to the OP, but I wanted to stick up for a guy who I thought put in a lot of effort useful to all of us who was being charged (unthinkingly, I'm sure) with making a mistake when all there was is a difference of opinions!
Jun. 22, 2020 at 10:07 a.m.
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Quoting: OldNYIfan
I have a different take on some of your projections:

or

I have some different ideas about some of the FA's:

A discrepancy would occur if, for example, in his preamble @MaxDomi13 had said "Despite many predictions, I don't think that anyone in this class of free agents is getting more than $8 million" and then had higher figures (as he has) for Pietrangelo and Hall.


Makes sense.
Jun. 22, 2020 at 10:13 a.m.
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Quoting: DoctorBreakfast
Makes sense.


Quoting: MaxDomi13
Please don't quote a post with an @ mention in it - I get the PONG
Jun. 25, 2020 at 10:07 a.m.
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Quoting: rangersandislesfan
I didn't read all of them, but Schultz will get more than 2.5M (if the cap stays the same).


PIT fan here, Schultz doesn't deserve more than 2.5M, but I wouldn't be shocked if he gets more.
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