Quoting: JTBF81
Yes, Tampa paid a high price in those trades, but they received players who had the extra year and help replace those who will depart. Brisebois isn’t stupid, he saw what was coming and made moves to prepare for the losses of Killorn, Paquette and others. He was Yzerman’s #2 for several years and worked with him closely on many of the trades, so he and his team have a good idea of how to run things. Tampa was also bidding against at least 3 teams for Coleman and one or two for Goodrow, which drove up their prices. Tampa was going to have to move at least one of Miller or Gourde last year, and the return was better than expected for Miller. I would’ve rather kept him and used him properly while getting a slightly lesser return at the draft for Gourde, but Cooper was never going to utilize Miller correctly here so it worked out for both sides. The mid and late 1sts wouldn’t have helped Tampa for at least 3 years, and for a team in a win now mindset, the trades made sense.
Tampa shouldn’t have too much difficulty signing both Cirelli and Serg to likely 3 year bridges. Serg around 4.5 aav as his closest comparable were in the same range(McAvoy at 4.9, Werenski at 5, both on 3 year bridges). Given that Tampa 95% of the time gets players to take a little less, 4.5x3 would be right in line. For Cirelli, he has great potential and likely a great future; however, he has only had one standout year thus far. If we look at similar Tampa F’s coming off their elc(Palat, Johnson and Killorn), all took bridges slightly less than 5% of the then cap. I can see Cirelli getting, perhaps, a little more but something like 4 or 4.25x3 is definitely in line of what he’ll likely sign for here. If Tampa does get one of Gourde or Johnson to waive, the issues are pretty much solved and Cernak likely stays as well. If one of them will not waive, Brisebois can buy one of TJ or Gourde out and still have enough for a 21 player starting roster to start the year. Cernak may have to be traded in this scenario but even that’s not 100%, depending on what he’s looking for in terms of aav and term.
Tampa will have some roster turnover, but as you mentioned, one or two of Volkov, Barre-Boulez, Raddysh, Joseph etc. will be ready for a bottom 6 role to go along with Coleman and Goodrow in there as well. Tampa will be fine, it’s just the same doom and gloom rhetoric we heard when Killorn and Kuch needed deals at the same time, Stamkos was good as gone in ufa and how Point was getting at least 9 million. Until a Tampa rfa bucks the organizational structure and leavesTampa, it’s just more of the same. The flat cap does throw a slight curveball to the plan, but the difference between a cap of 81.5 and 84 or 84.5 isn’t something JBB and his number guys can’t handle. He has always been a great numbers guy from what I’ve read, so I’m sure they have worked this change into the overall plan.
A buyout seems like such an unattractive option. They would literally be paying Gourde for a decade. Johnson wouldn't be much better. Plus both are good players.
You have clearly put in the work on this stuff, but I do wonder if you're seeing through the fan lens a little bit (something none of us are immune to). At some point, it might just be better to lose even a really good up and coming player like Cirelli in order to keep the rest of the team together. If keeping him means losing all of Sergachev, Cernak, etc. (or paying a guy not to play for you over the next decade and still losing a lot of good players), it's not such an easy decision. One of the legs on the table is going to crack. If another teams GM chooses the one to lean on, it could have an effect on what Tampa ultimately does.
The other thing I'll mention is the potential difficulty in moving players this off season. Obviously Sergachev and Cernak are easy. Killorn shouldn't be too bad, but options are limited since all teams were counting on a cap increase that isn't going to happen. Gourde, Johnson, or Palat might be really difficult with their trade protection. Basically you have to find a team that (1) wants the player, (2) has the cap space, and (3) is an attractive enough destination that they'll waive their NTC. I could be wrong, but I don't see it.
If you really think BriseBois will try and keep Cirelli come hell or high water, then he will. I'm not so sure though. Maybe it takes a better offer than the above (it probably does), but I think the conditions are such that more than one tough decision must be made. I really like Cirelli though, and I would be exploring the options if I'm sitting in Sakic's seat.