Quoting: corson
I know the other Habs ACGMs will jump all over me but I like the trade
Assuming we are able to sign Graves and Jost to 3x$3M contracts.
I see Avalanche ACGMs signing Graves and Jost to these type of contracts all the time on their posts, but I'm assuming that Graves and Jost would want more to play in Montreal.
I think Graves is close to what we have been looking for since Markov.
The reality is that at least 1 of Domi, Danault, Tatar or Drouin will have to go by the start of the 2021 season
I want a #1 LD and Graves might be the best one available for Domi
Thanks for weighing in with a well-balanced and reasoned take. I really appreciate that you elaborated on your reasoning.
I don't see why signing Graves to $3m x 3 years would be an issue. I see his contract range being between $2.5m x 2 years and $3m x 3 years, but I think he'd resign in Colorado for $2.75m x 3 years. That might not seem like a lot, but after years of bouncing around the AHL I think he'll be very satisfied with an $8.25m payday. And he'd be hitting UFA at 28 (speaking of which maybe you'd want to go $3.5-4m x 4 years instead to get some extra term out of him).
As for Jost, he's an RFA without arbitration rights, so I think you can sign him cheap. His comparables are probably Sam Bennet ($1.95m x 2 years and then $2.55m x 2 years) and Lawson Crouse ($1.533m x 3 years). I think $2m x 2 years is probably fair, alternatively $2.5m x 3, but you can probably squeeze him down to around $1.5m for 1-2 years.
I completely agree with what you're saying about Graves being a good fit. I also agree that it's obvious that one of your top 6 forwards needs to be moved, especially given the talent you have coming through (ie. Kotkaniemi, Suzuki, Caufield, No.8 pick, etc), and opportunities to add relatively young cost-controlled top 4 LHD's like Graves are pretty scarce.
I don't think Sakic is interested in a rental, so that rules out Tatar or Gallagher (not that Montreal would trade Gallagher anyways as he's the heart-and-soul of that team). I don't see any interest in Drouin due to his lack of defense and poor offense this season. But Domi ticks a lot of boxes for Colorado.
Sakic went after Burakovsky last offseason as an RFA, and I foresee him doing the same here. Bringing in an RFA is the perfect scenario as it adds a young player with term, and allows us to tailor the contract AAV and term to our situation.
Graves would be hard to give up, but although he's a very good shutdown top 4D and cheap to keep around, he's likely only going to be our 3rd pair LHD once Byram establishes himself (which hopefully won't take too long), and thus makes sense to trade if there's a good player available. It would be a risk to go without Graves in the top 4 next season, but in Cole (and possibly Zadorov if he is resigned) we would have enough cover to insulate Byram until he's ready to step into a top 4 role.
Regarding the overall trade, do you think the value is fair for both sides? Do you see any way it could be improved?