Flat Cap 2021-22 projection

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: Richard88

Team: 2021-22 Colorado Avalanche

Initial Creation Date: Jun. 26, 2020

Published: Jun. 26, 2020

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

A flat cap for 3 years isn't a bad situation for Colorado. In fact I'd say that it could even be a blessing.

First of all Sakic will be able to resign RFA's like Burakovsky, Nichuskin, Jost, Graves, and Zadorov to lower AAV deals than would have been likely without a flat cap.

Looking ahead, it should also mean that we can sign cheaper long-term deals in 2021 with Makar; Landeskog; Grubauer; and Timmins, and potentially also Mackinnon and Byram in 2023 should the cap stay flat until then.

The value of prospects on ELC's will be much higher than usual too, and Avs have plenty of those coming through (i.e. Byram, Timmins, Newhook, Kaut, Bowers, Annunen, etc).

And that's all without even mentioning that Colorado will have plenty of space to acquire players via trades or UFA at lower-than-market value, or simply to weaponise any unused capspace to acquire some valuable picks/prospects.

This AGM isn't meant to be an accurate roster representation for the 2021/22 roster (as I think Zadorov will be traded before then, and someone will be taken in the ED as well), but rather, it just serves to illustrate that Colorado would have no problem keeping the current roster intact.

Free Agent Signings

RESERVE LIST		YEARS	CAP HIT
Newhook, Alex		3	$925,000

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Burakovsky, André	4	$4,650,000
Graves, Ryan	3	$2,350,000
Jost, Tyson	2	$1,350,000
Makar, Cale	8	$8,500,000
Nichushkin, Valeri	2	$1,750,000
Timmins, Conor	2	$1,000,000
Werner, Adam	2	$1,000,000
O'Connor, Logan	1	$950,000
Kamenev, Vladislav	1	$775,000
Zadorov, Nikita	3	$3,200,000

UFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Grubauer, Philipp		3	$4,750,000
Landeskog, Gabriel		6	$7,500,000

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2020
2021
2022

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
22	$81,500,000	$81,623,963	$1,741,463	$3,125,000	-$123,963

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Landeskog, Gabriel $7,500,000$7,500,000 LW, C UFA - 8	MacKinnon, Nathan $6,300,000$6,300,000 C M-NTC UFA - 2	Rantanen, Mikko $9,250,000$9,250,000 RW, C UFA - 4
Burakovsky, André $4,650,000$4,650,000 RW, LW UFA - 1	Kadri, Nazem $4,500,000$4,500,000 C M-NTC UFA - 1	Donskoi, Joonas $3,900,000$3,900,000 RW UFA - 2
Nichushkin, Valeri $1,750,000$1,750,000 RW, LW UFA - 1	Newhook, Alex $925,000$925,000 C, LW RFA - 2	Compher, J.T. $3,500,000$3,500,000 C, RW UFA - 2
Jost, Tyson $1,350,000$1,350,000 C UFA - 2	Bowers, Shane $925,000$925,000 ($200,000$200K) C RFA - 1	Kaut, Martin $863,333$863,333 ($425,000$425K) RW RFA - 2
	Kamenev, Vladislav $775,000$775,000 C RFA

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Byram, Bowen $894,167$894,167 ($2,500,000$2M) LD/RD RFA - 2	Makar, Cale $8,500,000$8,500,000 RD UFA - 6	Grubauer, Philipp $4,750,000$4,750,000 G UFA - 6
Girard, Samuel $5,000,000$5,000,000 LD/RD UFA - 6	Johnson, Erik $6,000,000$6,000,000 RD M-NTC, NMC UFA - 2	Francouz, Pavel $2,000,000$2,000,000 G UFA - 1
Graves, Ryan $2,350,000$2,350,000 LD UFA - 2	Timmins, Conor $1,000,000$1,000,000 RD RFA - 2
Zadorov, Nikita $3,200,000$3,200,000 LD/RD UFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
		O'Connor, Logan $950,000$950,000 RW, LW UFA - 1
		Werner, Adam $1,000,000$1,000,000 G UFA - 1
		Annunen, Justus $880,833$880,833 ($125,000$125K) G RFA - 2

Jun. 26, 2020 at 8:13 a.m.

DirtyDangle

retired

Joined: Apr. 2020

Posts: 8,893

Likes: 4,761

i think you're too low on the salary for most guys. i don't think a flat cap will cause salaries to fall that much. more likely is that talent get redistributed to the lower teams. zadorov, graves, and at least one of compher or donskoi will probably be cap casualities. you don't have anyone going to an expansion team here.

Jun. 26, 2020 at 8:31 a.m.

Richard88

Thread Starter

John 3 16

Joined: Apr. 2020

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Quoting: DirtyDangle

I agree that some of these are on the low-side, but I also think it's not beyond the realm of possibility. A flat cap for 3 years would really put a squeeze on player contracts, both RFA and UFA's.

I deliberately didn't include the ED. As I explained in the description this is just an exercise to show that we could resign everyone. Just take out Zadorov and imagine that he goes to Seattle if you want it to be more realistic.

Jun. 26, 2020 at 8:33 a.m.

justin9

Banned

Joined: Jun. 2020

Posts: 54

Likes: 10

I didn't know every player takes discounts

Jun. 26, 2020 at 8:44 a.m.

DirtyDangle

retired

Joined: Apr. 2020

Posts: 8,893

Likes: 4,761

Quoting: Richard88

players are already fed up with escrow i can't see them taking big paycuts to make it work. players salaries will stagnate a bit, maybe around 5% but you have a lot of players taking much larger discounts. bottom feeders and seattle have more cap room to take the outcasts.

Jun. 26, 2020 at 9:12 a.m.

Anus_McLeod

Joined: Apr. 2020

Posts: 3,579

Likes: 3,440

I don't think it's that far off. Landeskog might get a bit more, but I feel like if MacKinnon is going to take a discount then so is Gabe. Hopefully that's the case and this is close.

I can see Burakovsky coming in closer to $5M, Nichushkin closer to $3M (depending on term), and Graves also around $3M (again, depending on term). Makar could get around that, but it probably wouldn't be for 8 years. I'm okay with the number though.

All that adds around $2-2.5M to the total, which is easily offset by trading Zadorov and losing Compher to Seattle. The team is set up just fine for the flat cap.

Richard88 and ArakinSkywalker liked this.

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