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Best - Good - And Worst Scenarios for the Canes at the Draft

Created by: TheCoontniac
Team: 2019-20 Carolina Hurricanes
Initial Creation Date: Jun. 30, 2020
Published: Jun. 30, 2020
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Best Scenario:

Canes win the draft lottery, Which mean the Toronto pick would go to the Rangers


Good Scenario:

Toronto loses in the qualifying round and DOESNT win the 1st overall. Which means Carolina would get a pick in the 10-20 range, and we would send the other pick to the Rangers


Worst Scenario:

Toronto Wins the first overall pick, which would send the later first to the Rangers, and Canes would be stuck with Torontos first for next year.

Not a horrible thing, but id rather have a late 1st in this years draft, than in next years.
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DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2020
Logo of the TOR
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Logo of the TOR
2021
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Logo of the CAR
Logo of the CAR
Logo of the CAR
Logo of the STL
2022
Logo of the CAR
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$81,500,000$89,418,166$0$4,507,500-$7,918,166
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$5,250,000$5,250,000
LW, RW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$8,454,000$8,454,000
C
UFA - 5
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$5,400,000$5,400,000
LW, RW
UFA - 5
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$3,375,000$3,375,000
LW, RW, C
UFA - 2
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$6,000,000$6,000,000
C, LW
NMC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$700,000$700,000 (Performance Bonus$1,300,000$1M)
RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$2,100,000$2,100,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$4,750,000$4,750,000
C, RW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$2,650,000$3M)
LW, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$2,000,000$2,000,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$746,667$746,667 (Performance Bonus$20,000$20K)
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$537,500$538K)
RW
RFA - 3
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$5,300,000$5,300,000
LD
UFA - 6
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$5,750,000$5,750,000
RD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$3,400,000$3,400,000
G
UFA - 2
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$5,250,000$5,250,000
LD
UFA - 5
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$4,025,000$4,025,000
RD
UFA - 5
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$3,125,000$3,125,000
G
UFA - 2
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$4,050,000$4,050,000
LD
M-NTC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$2,300,000$2,300,000
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$3,100,000$3,100,000
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$2,437,500$2,437,500
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
$850,000$850,000
LD/RD
UFA - 1

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Jun. 30, 2020 at 2:43 p.m.
#1
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This whole Laff scenario is nuts. This play in round is a crap shoot anyone can win or lose. I don't have an predictions but if TO lost and then got the 1st, yeah next year's 1st is likely in the 28-31 range. Their offence would be just insane.
Jun. 30, 2020 at 2:50 p.m.
#2
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Quoting: PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood
This whole Laff scenario is nuts. This play in round is a crap shoot anyone can win or lose. I don't have an predictions but if TO lost and then got the 1st, yeah next year's 1st is likely in the 28-31 range. Their offence would be just insane.


Yup! I mean a 1st is a 1st, but I think id even rather have an early 2nd in this years draft than 1st(25-30) next year!
Jun. 30, 2020 at 3:19 p.m.
#3
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Edited Jun. 30, 2020 at 3:25 p.m.
The best case draft scenario is not Lafreniere. No, it's the Canes winning the Cup, the Canes giving up a (relatively) measly #31 pick to the Rangers, and the Leafs losing their play-in and losing the draft lottery. Dreaming about the 1st overall is for chumps who don't think that their team is that great. We're a contending-caliber roster, and we should approach these playoffs as Cup or bust.
Jun. 30, 2020 at 3:38 p.m.
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Quoting: Hockyluv21
The best case draft scenario is not Lafreniere. No, it's the Canes winning the Cup, the Canes giving up a (relatively) measly #31 pick to the Rangers, and the Leafs losing their play-in and losing the draft lottery. Dreaming about the 1st overall is for chumps who don't think that their team is that great. We're a contending-caliber roster, and we should approach these playoffs as Cup or bust.


We're not a contending calibre roster. We have 0 depth scoring outside or Necas. Our defence played like garbage this year outside of Slavin and Dougie. Reimer was a miracle, but Mrazek is still very underwhelming. We are not contenders. We have the high end talent, sure.But we severely lack the depth and goaltending (if Mrazek starts). Laf at least addresses one of those problems.
Jun. 30, 2020 at 3:39 p.m.
#5
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Quoting: Hockyluv21
The best case draft scenario is not Lafreniere. No, it's the Canes winning the Cup, the Canes giving up a (relatively) measly #31 pick to the Rangers, and the Leafs losing their play-in and losing the draft lottery. Dreaming about the 1st overall is for chumps who don't think that their team is that great. We're a contending-caliber roster, and we should approach these playoffs as Cup or bust.


Dude 75% of the players dont even want to play! This season is a wash. Whoever wins this 'cup' is the real chumps haha
Jun. 30, 2020 at 3:40 p.m.
#6
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Quoting: Caniac2000
We're not a contending calibre roster. We have 0 depth scoring outside or Necas. Our defence played like garbage this year outside of Slavin and Dougie. Reimer was a miracle, but Mrazek is still very underwhelming. We are not contenders. We have the high end talent, sure.But we severely lack the depth and goaltending (if Mrazek starts). Laf at least addresses one of those problems.


Facts man, I actually agree with you. Canes cannot contend with top end teams in a full series. ie Boston
Jun. 30, 2020 at 3:42 p.m.
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Quoting: jslongo
Dude 75% of the players dont even want to play! This season is a wash. Whoever wins this 'cup' is the real chumps haha


Be skeptical of Twitter, that's all that I have to say.
Jun. 30, 2020 at 3:43 p.m.
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Quoting: jslongo
Facts man, I actually agree with you. Canes cannot contend with top end teams in a full series. ie Boston


We can beat system teams, like NYI, or we can beat older teams, like WSH. But a high-end deep, young team like the Bruins, or Lightning, or Philadelphia will murder us. We have a very nice core and we 100% will be contenders, but we're not there yet
Jun. 30, 2020 at 3:43 p.m.
#9
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Quoting: Caniac2000
We're not a contending calibre roster. We have 0 depth scoring outside or Necas. Our defence played like garbage this year outside of Slavin and Dougie. Reimer was a miracle, but Mrazek is still very underwhelming. We are not contenders. We have the high end talent, sure.But we severely lack the depth and goaltending (if Mrazek starts). Laf at least addresses one of those problems.


The FO clearly disagrees with you. Why would they have made the deadline moves if they thought otherwise? I would personally trust the folks running the team over some ACGMs, along with myself.
Jun. 30, 2020 at 3:44 p.m.
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Quoting: Hockyluv21
The FO clearly disagrees with you. Why would they have made the deadline moves if they thought otherwise? I would personally trust the folks running the team over some ACGMs, along with myself.


Vatanen and Skjei because 1/2 our D core was injured. Trocheck because we needed right hand forwards who had term. None of them were to solidify a run for a cup.
Jun. 30, 2020 at 3:46 p.m.
#11
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Edited Jun. 30, 2020 at 3:51 p.m.
Quoting: Caniac2000
We can beat system teams, like NYI, or we can beat older teams, like WSH. But a high-end deep, young team like the Bruins, or Lightning, or Philadelphia will murder us. We have a very nice core and we 100% will be contenders, but we're not there yet


Bruins are on the older side, as well, outside of Pasta and McAvoy. Again, I think that our youngsters have learned a lot from the last time that they got swept by the Bruins. Philly's core has very little playoff experience outside of Giroux, so it's very possible that they choke against a club with prior experience with a deep run. The only team that I would be afraid of is Tampa, because I see them being incredibly hungry this year to not be known as among the worst chokers of all-time.
Jun. 30, 2020 at 3:50 p.m.
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Quoting: Hockyluv21
Bruins are on the older side, as well. Again, I think that our youngsters have learned a lot from the last time that they got swept by the Bruins. Philly's core has very little playoff experience outside of Giroux, so it's very possible that they choke against a club with prior experience with a deep run.


Bruins have an older core, but guys like DeBrusk, McAvoy, Carlo, etc are young enough to power them past a team that doesn't have depth like Carolina. Philadelphia's core has playoff experience, see Voracek, Giroux, Niskanen, etc. Philadelphia again have the depth to murder a team like Carolina
Jun. 30, 2020 at 3:55 p.m.
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Quoting: Caniac2000
Bruins have an older core, but guys like DeBrusk, McAvoy, Carlo, etc are young enough to power them past a team that doesn't have depth like Carolina. Philadelphia's core has playoff experience, see Voracek, Giroux, Niskanen, etc. Philadelphia again have the depth to murder a team like Carolina


I disagree; a lot of our depth guys had some pretty extended slumps relative to their usual years, and the playoffs would act as sort of a reset for everybody. I see a team like us being fully capable of giving the Bruins a 7-game series now. Not saying that it will happen, but I don't think that we'll be murdered like last time around. And again, I don't see Philly going on a deep run yet, unless Carter Hart goes Super Saiyan, which is, of course, very possible. My personal fear is Tampa Bay, for the reasons that I stated above.
Jun. 30, 2020 at 3:58 p.m.
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Quoting: Hockyluv21
I disagree; a lot of our depth guys had some pretty extended slumps relative to their usual years, and the playoffs would act as sort of a reset for everybody. I see a team like us being fully capable of giving the Bruins a 7-game series now. Not saying that it will happen, but I don't think that we'll be murdered like last time around.


If they're all in slumps, then they might as well not be there. If they're not being useful, we don't have them to rely on. Every team ices 12 forwards, and ours were just as meh as anyones (Outside of SAT and Necas) When none of your forwards in the bottom 9 reach he 40 point mark, we have no depth. We're not capable of giving the Bruins a close series. They have far better depth, defence and goaltending. It'd be even more of a landslide this year because they took another step forward
Jun. 30, 2020 at 4:05 p.m.
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Edited Jun. 30, 2020 at 4:10 p.m.
Quoting: Caniac2000
If they're all in slumps, then they might as well not be there. If they're not being useful, we don't have them to rely on. Every team ices 12 forwards, and ours were just as meh as anyones (Outside of SAT and Necas) When none of your forwards in the bottom 9 reach he 40 point mark, we have no depth. We're not capable of giving the Bruins a close series. They have far better depth, defence and goaltending. It'd be even more of a landslide this year because they took another step forward


What is "more of a landslide" than getting swept? Come on, you know better than that. The Hurricanes are one of the best possession clubs in hockey, in line with a club like Vegas, while the Bruins are middling in that regard outside of their top line. The Bruins are a club that is essentially saved by their elite top end guys. Analytically, they have a middling 3rd line and one of the worst 4th lines in the NHL. A fully healthy defense, which is looking more and more possible if the playoffs start in August, would go a long way towards keeping the Marchand/Bergeron/Pastrnak monstrosity from inflicting too much damage. The goal, at that point, is to figure out how to finally get that shooting percentage up to where it needs to be. The Flyers are built in a very similar way; amazing top-end, not that great at the middle and bottom.
Jun. 30, 2020 at 4:10 p.m.
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Quoting: Hockyluv21
What is "more of a landslide" than getting swept? Come on, you know better than that. They're a team that is essentially saved by their elite top end guys. Analytically, they have a middling 3rd line and one of the worst 4th lines in the NHL. A fully healthy defense, which is looking more and more possible if the playoffs start in August, would go a long way towards keeping the Marchand/Bergeron/Pastrnak monstrosity from inflicting too much damage.


Boston against us right now, I wouldn't be shocked if we got perfect swept. Didn't score a single goal all series. All you have to do is hush the SAT line. Their depth is some of the best in the NHL. Idk what you're looking at, but Krejci, DeBrushk, Coyle, Kase are some of the best analytical players in the NHL ll in the Bruins bottom 9. Even if our defence is healthy, Slavin cannot stop that line on his own, Pesce has played like a garbage can analytically this year, Edmundson is a balck hole, Skjei, Vatanen and Gardiner are OFD. TvR and Fleury are no help, and Dougie is a defensive aid occassionally. He's not gonna be there consistently. We'd get absolutely destroyed and you'd know that.
Jun. 30, 2020 at 4:15 p.m.
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Edited Jun. 30, 2020 at 4:22 p.m.
Quoting: Caniac2000
Boston against us right now, I wouldn't be shocked if we got perfect swept. Didn't score a single goal all series. All you have to do is hush the SAT line. Their depth is some of the best in the NHL. Idk what you're looking at, but Krejci, DeBrushk, Coyle, Kase are some of the best analytical players in the NHL ll in the Bruins bottom 9. Even if our defence is healthy, Slavin cannot stop that line on his own, Pesce has played like a garbage can analytically this year, Edmundson is a balck hole, Skjei, Vatanen and Gardiner are OFD. TvR and Fleury are no help, and Dougie is a defensive aid occassionally. He's not gonna be there consistently. We'd get absolutely destroyed and you'd know that.


Look at how many guys on their team are below 50% even-strength Corsi. The Canes only had one guy like that all year, and that was Brian Gibbons, an AHLer. Don't get caught up by CorRel, because it makes some of the guys on our club look far worse analytically than they actually are. All of those guys that you mentioned, like Coyle, Debrusk, Kase, and Krejci are excellent players, I agree. I'm specifically talking about the guys in their support cast. Again, my optimism for the Canes' chances are backed up by direct evidence. They just need the shooting percentages to go up relative to the regular season. Not only am I high on the Canes making a deep run, but also Vegas for the exact same reasons. In fact, I have Vegas as my personal dark-horse prediction for this season's Cup winner.
Jun. 30, 2020 at 4:25 p.m.
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Quoting: Hockyluv21
The best case draft scenario is not Lafreniere. No, it's the Canes winning the Cup, the Canes giving up a (relatively) measly #31 pick to the Rangers, and the Leafs losing their play-in and losing the draft lottery. Dreaming about the 1st overall is for chumps who don't think that their team is that great. We're a contending-caliber roster, and we should approach these playoffs as Cup or bust.


It hard to put that kind of goals on a team when they are in this scenario. A slow start in the play in and you are done. Any team could get upset, I am thinking most of the series will be done in 4 games. Have a shaky start from your goalie in game 1 and you are in a hole, a couple of posts that could have helped you win game 2 and you are down 2-0 and then the other team has the confidence and momentum to win just 1 more game. That makes the whole playoffs a crap shoot. Anyone can win and anyone can lose.
Jun. 30, 2020 at 4:29 p.m.
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Quoting: PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood
It hard to put that kind of goals on a team when they are in this scenario. A slow start in the play in and you are done. Any team could get upset, I am thinking most of the series will be done in 4 games. Have a shaky start from your goalie in game 1 and you are in a hole, a couple of posts that could have helped you win game 2 and you are down 2-0 and then the other team has the confidence and momentum to win just 1 more game. That makes the whole playoffs a crap shoot. Anyone can win and anyone can lose.


I'm a general believer in setting the goals high for my favorite team, mainly because I think that they're a fully capable bunch.
Jun. 30, 2020 at 4:31 p.m.
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Quoting: Hockyluv21
Look at how many guys on their team are below 50% even-strength Corsi. The Canes only had one guy like that all year, and that was Brian Gibbons, an AHLer. Don't get caught up by CorRel, because it makes some of the guys on our club look far worse analytically than they actually are. All of those guys that you mentioned, like Coyle, Debrusk, Kase, and Krejci are excellent players, I agree. I'm specifically talking about the guys in their support cast. Again, my optimism for the Canes' chances are backed up by direct evidence. They just need the shooting percentages to go up relative to the regular season. Not only am I high on the Canes making a deep run, but also Vegas for the exact same reasons. In fact, I have Vegas as my personal dark-horse prediction for this season's Cup winner.


RAPM player for player, Boston were one of the best teams in hockey. Corsi is a horrible stat to go off when comparing players across teams because Carolina have a very "shoot first ask questions later system". CorRel is actually more acurate in this scenario, although still not ideal. Looking at Boston's depth like Kuraly, Nordstrom, Wagner, they're some of the better isolated players on the bottom lines of NHL teams. They're player for player the strongest analytical team in hockey imo. They're FAR better than using Corsi stats will show you (because Cassidy runs a very tidy "only shoot to score" system)
Jun. 30, 2020 at 4:35 p.m.
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Wow, not what I wanted this to turn into. Thanks @Hockyluv21
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Jun. 30, 2020 at 4:41 p.m.
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Quoting: Caniac2000
RAPM player for player, Boston were one of the best teams in hockey. Corsi is a horrible stat to go off when comparing players across teams because Carolina have a very "shoot first ask questions later system". CorRel is actually more acurate in this scenario, although still not ideal. Looking at Boston's depth like Kuraly, Nordstrom, Wagner, they're some of the better isolated players on the bottom lines of NHL teams. They're player for player the strongest analytical team in hockey imo. They're FAR better than using Corsi stats will show you (because Cassidy runs a very tidy "only shoot to score" system)


LOL, analytical nerds disagreeing with each other. Just another day at CapFriendly :P I'm a pretty steadfast Corsi devotee in general, mainly because I am a big believer in the idea that a shot not taken is an opportunity wasted. A team that relies on high shooting percentages like Boston or Washington requires a certain kind of sniping talent as a vehicle to make it happen. With Washington, it's Ovechkin, and with Boston, it's Pastrnak. It's a huge reason why those clubs perform well above what their analytical stats look like at first glance.
Jun. 30, 2020 at 4:43 p.m.
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Quoting: jslongo
Wow, not what I wanted this to turn into. Thanks @Hockyluv21


Both @Caniac2000 and I love our hockey, and we disagree on analytics, so it's just another day at CapFriendly.
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Jun. 30, 2020 at 4:46 p.m.
#24
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Quoting: Hockyluv21
I'm a general believer in setting the goals high for my favorite team, mainly because I think that they're a fully capable bunch.


I think my team had a season where pretty much everything that could go wrong went wrong and they are still a playoff team. Still with that being said, in a best of 5 series, there isn't much room for error and if my team loses, I won't be crushed and if they win I won't be over the moon. The play in round will be a crap shoot, for Carolina, 1 or 2 bad stars from your goalies and you could be done. Or vice versa, a couple of really good games from one of New York's goalies and you are done. Over 7 games I don't think you have much to worry about but in a short series, with such a big layoff and no one being in mid season form, its anyones guess how things can go. Then once you are in the 1st round, you'll be far more prepared than the teams who are waiting for play in results so that round could be just as unpredictable. I think any actual good team that makes it to the 2nd or 3rd round is going to really show why they were a top team but there is no guarantee that anyone gets there.
Jun. 30, 2020 at 4:59 p.m.
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Quoting: Hockyluv21
LOL, analytical nerds disagreeing with each other. Just another day at CapFriendly :P I'm a pretty steadfast Corsi devotee in general, mainly because I am a big believer in the idea that a shot not taken is an opportunity wasted. A team that relies on high shooting percentages like Boston or Washington requires a certain kind of sniping talent as a vehicle to make it happen. With Washington, it's Ovechkin, and with Boston, it's Pastrnak. It's a huge reason why those clubs perform well above what their analytical stats look like at first glance.


I think there is a very good argument to be made that shooting for the sake of shooting only lessens your ability to control the play. Just like dump and chase teams and fans of that brand think its the best because with the right personnel, you get lots of hits and create some turnovers and there is an illusion that you wear down teams. However, the stats are pretty clear that if you have controlled zone entries, your chances of scoring go up by a huge margin. So while some still cling to dump and chase being the best system, statistically its not a good idea. Same with shot volume from all over the ice, it doesn't necessarily mean your team is even dominating play, NHL goalies are the best in the world, shooting from outside or the corners or whatever may lead to a goal the odd time or create a funny bounce that leads to a goal but the vast majority of goalies are going to stop all those and when you shoot the puck you no longer possess it.

This is why I love Keefe's system in TO (once they master it anyways) its a hybrid between extreme possession, shot selection and the Trotz style of collapse to the middle and swarm the puck in danger areas defensively. If a team wants to shoot from everywhere hoping for rebounds, just take away the middle and let your goalie make easy saves all game. At some point, you'll regain possession and then if you have the skill to keep it you can work around the offensive zone until you isolate a defender and get into a prime scoring area and then your likelihood of scoring are vastly increased. The NHL is evolving and its really fun to watch.
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